A novel neural model to electrical load forecasting in transformers

The paper describes a novel neural model to electrical load forecasting in transformers. The network acts as identifier of structural features to forecast process. So that output parameters can be estimated and generalized from an input parameter set. The model was trained and assessed through load data extracted from a Brazilian Electric Utility taking into account time, current, tension, active power in the three phases of the system. The results obtained in the simulations show that the developed technique can be used as an alternative tool to become more appropriate for planning of electric power systems.

Green-Markov models - new optimization strategies: a case study for user allocation in co-channel macro/femto networks

ABSTRACT: The femtocell concept aims to combine fixed-line broadband access with mobile telephony using the deployment of low-cost, low-power third and fourth generation base stations in the subscribers' homes. While the self-configuration of femtocells is a plus, it can limit the quality of service (QoS) for the users and reduce the efficiency of the network, based on outdated allocation parameters such as signal power level. To this end, this paper presents a proposal for optimized allocation of users on a co-channel macro-femto network, that enable self-configuration and public access, aiming to maximize the quality of service of applications and using more efficiently the available energy, seeking the concept of Green networking. Thus, when the user needs to connect to make a voice or a data call, the mobile phone has to decide which network to connect, using the information of number of connections, the QoS parameters (packet loss and throughput) and the signal power level of each network. For this purpose, the system is modeled as a Markov Decision Process, which is formulated to obtain an optimal policy that can be applied on the mobile phone. The policy created is flexible, allowing different analyzes, and adaptive to the specific characteristics defined by the telephone company. The results show that compared to traditional QoS approaches, the policy proposed here can improve energy efficiency by up to 10%.

A holistic approach to model-based testing of Web service compositions

The behavior of composed Web services depends on the results of the invoked services; unexpected behavior of one of the invoked services can threat the correct execution of an entire composition. This paper proposes an event-based approach to black-box testing of Web service compositions based on event sequence graphs, which are extended by facilities to deal not only with service behavior under regular circumstances (i.e., where cooperating services are working as expected) but also with their behavior in undesirable situations (i.e., where cooperating services are not working as expected). Furthermore, the approach can be used independently of artifacts (e.g., Business Process Execution Language) or type of composition (orchestration/choreography). A large case study, based on a commercial Web application, demonstrates the feasibility of the approach and analyzes its characteristics. Test generation and execution are supported by dedicated tools. Especially, the use of an enterprise service bus for test execution is noteworthy and differs from other approaches. The results of the case study encourage to suggest that the new approach has the power to detect faults systematically, performing properly even with complex and large compositions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Power of Tragedy: An Eighteenth-Century Debate on Theater and its Relevance to Literature Pedagogy Today

This article brings to light a debate on tragic fiction in eighteenth-century France, and more specifically, on whether or not tragedy has the power to transform individuals intellectually and emotionally. Through analysis of abbé Dubos’s Reflexions critiques sur la poésie et sur la peinture and Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s Lettre à d’Alembert sur les spectacles, I contend that Dubos’s overwhelmingly positive conception of fiction—and especially his contention that we learn through the emotions when we engage with tragic fiction—can serve as an admirable pedagogical model for today’s fiction-focused foreign language classrooms.

The Representation of Motherhood in Polish Cinema

The project aimed to analyse representations of motherhood in Polish cinema as a special case of a more general system within the representation of women. It concentrated on the image of the Polish Mother created during the 19th century in Polish culture under the influence of specific political, social and religious factors. Ms. Ostrowska's initial hypothesis was that this symbolic image became one of the most stable elements in Polish cinema and as her research revealed, it was valuable for the preservation of national identity but nevertheless a fiercely constraining model for Polish femininity. In order to fully understand the nature of this persistent image it was initially necessary to related it to broader contexts and issues in representation. These included the image of the Polish Mother within general mythological structures (using the notion of myth in the Barthesian sense). Following her initial research Ms. Ostrowska felt that it was most appropriate to view the myth of the Polish Mother as a dominant ideological structure in the discourse of motherhood within Polish culture. An analysis of the myth of the Polish Mother can provide an insight into how Polish society sees itself at different periods in time and how a national identity was constructed in relation to particular ideological demands stemming from concrete historical and political situations. The analysis of the film version of this myth also revealed some aspects of the national character of Polish cinema. There the image of woman has become enshrined as the "eternal feminine", with virtues which are inevitably derived directly from Catholicism, particularly in relation to the networks of meanings around the central figure of Mary, Mother of God. In 19th century Poland these were linked with patriotic values and images of woman became part of the defence of the very idea of Poland and Polishness. After World War Two, this religious-political image system was adapted to the demands of the new communist ideology. The possibility of manipulating the ideological dimensions of the myth of the Polish Mother is due to the very nature of the image, which as a symbol of civil religion had been able to function independently of any particular state or church institution. Although in communist ideology the stress was on the patriotic aspect of the myth, its pronounced religious aspect was also transmitted, consciously or not, in the denotation process, this being of great significance in the viewer's response to the female character. This appropriation of elements derived from the national patriotic tradition into the discourse of communist ideology was a very efficient strategy to establish the illusion of continuity in national existence, which was supposed to convince society of the rightness of the new political situation. The analysis of films made in the post-war period showed the persistence of this discourse on motherhood in a range of cinematic texts regardless of the changing political situation. Ms. Ostrowska claims that the stability of this discursive formation is to a certain extent the result of the mythological aspect of the mother figure. This mythological structure also belongs to the ideology of Romanticism which in general continues to prevail in Polish cultural discourse as a meta-language of national community. The analysis of the films confirmed the hypothesis of the Polish Mother as a myth-sign whose signifier is stable whereas the signified depends on the specific historical conditions in which it is set. Therefore in the famous propaganda documentary Kobiety naszych dni (Women of Our Days, 1951) by Jan Zelnik, and in other films made after the October 1956 "thaw" it functions as an "empty sign. She concludes that it would be difficult to deny that the myth of the Polish Mother has offered Polish women a special role in national life, granting them a high moral position in the social, hierarchy. However the processes of idealisation involved have resulted in a deprivation of her subjectivity and the right to decide about her own life. This idealisation also served to strengthen traditional patriarchal structures through this set of female obligations to the mother land. In Polish ideology it is not a man who demands sacrifice from a woman but the motherland, which, deprived of the institutions of male power for nearly 150 years, had functioned as a feminine structure. That is why oppressive aspects of the myth have been obscured for so long. While Polish women were doubtless able to accept the constrictions because of their sense of national duty and any misgivings were overridden by the argument of the cause, it is important to recognise that the strength of these constructions, compounded by the ways in which they spoke of and continue to speak of a certain perfection, make them persist into contemporary Poland. Poland is however no longer embattled and the signs that made these meanings are potentially empty. This space for meaning will be and is already being contested and increasingly colonised by current western models of femininity. Ms. Ostrowska's final question is whether this will help to prevent a possible resentful victimisation of the silent and noble Polish Mother.

A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DOSE-RESPONSE ASSESSMENT AND DRUG-DRUG INTERACTION ANALYSIS: APPLICATION TO IN VITRO STUDIES

The considerable search for synergistic agents in cancer research is motivated by the therapeutic benefits achieved by combining anti-cancer agents. Synergistic agents make it possible to reduce dosage while maintaining or enhancing a desired effect. Other favorable outcomes of synergistic agents include reduction in toxicity and minimizing or delaying drug resistance. Dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis play an important part in the drug discovery process, however analysis are often poorly done. This dissertation is an effort to notably improve dose-response assessment and drug-drug interaction analysis. The most commonly used method in published analysis is the Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method (Chou and Talalay, 1984). The Median-Effect Principle/Combination Index method leads to inefficiency by ignoring important sources of variation inherent in dose-response data and discarding data points that do not fit the Median-Effect Principle. Previous work has shown that the conventional method yields a high rate of false positives (Boik, Boik, Newman, 2008; Hennessey, Rosner, Bast, Chen, 2010) and, in some cases, low power to detect synergy. There is a great need for improving the current methodology. We developed a Bayesian framework for dose-response modeling and drug-drug interaction analysis. First, we developed a hierarchical meta-regression dose-response model that accounts for various sources of variation and uncertainty and allows one to incorporate knowledge from prior studies into the current analysis, thus offering a more efficient and reliable inference. Second, in the case that parametric dose-response models do not fit the data, we developed a practical and flexible nonparametric regression method for meta-analysis of independently repeated dose-response experiments. Third, and lastly, we developed a method, based on Loewe additivity that allows one to quantitatively assess interaction between two agents combined at a fixed dose ratio. The proposed method makes a comprehensive and honest account of uncertainty within drug interaction assessment. Extensive simulation studies show that the novel methodology improves the screening process of effective/synergistic agents and reduces the incidence of type I error. We consider an ovarian cancer cell line study that investigates the combined effect of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors in human ovarian cancer cell lines. The hypothesis is that the combination of DNA methylation inhibitors and histone deacetylation inhibitors will enhance antiproliferative activity in human ovarian cancer cell lines compared to treatment with each inhibitor alone. By applying the proposed Bayesian methodology, in vitro synergy was declared for DNA methylation inhibitor, 5-AZA-2'-deoxycytidine combined with one histone deacetylation inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or trichostatin A in the cell lines HEY and SKOV3. This suggests potential new epigenetic therapies in cell growth inhibition of ovarian cancer cells.

Europeanization in parliament and in the press

Europeanization challenges national democratic systems. As part and parcel of the broader internationalization of politics, Europeanization is associated with a shift from policymaking within majoritarian, elected representative bodies towards technocratic decisions among non-majoritarian and non-elected bodies (Kohler-Koch and Rittberger 2008, Lavenex 2013). It is thus said to weaken the influence of citizens and parliaments on the making of policies and to undermine democratic collective identity (Lavenex 2013, Schimmelfennig 2010). The weakening of national parliaments has been referred to as “de-parliamentarisation” (Goetz and Meyer-Sahling 2008) and has nurtured a broader debate regarding the democratic deficit in the EU. While not being a member of the EU, Switzerland has not remained unaffected by these changes. As discussed in the contribution by Fischer and Sciarini, state executive actors take the lead in Switzerland's European policy. They are responsible for the conduct of international negotiations, they own the treaty making power, and it is up to them to decide whether they wish to launch a negotiation with the EU. In addition, the strong take-it or leave-it character of Europeanized acts limits the room for manoeuver of the parliamentary body also in the ratification phase. Among the public, the rejection of the treaty on the European constitution has definitely closed the era of “permissive consensus” (Hooghe and Marks 2009). However, the process of European unification remains far remote from the European public. In Switzerland, the strongly administrative character of international legislation hinders public discussion (Vögeli 2007). In such a context, the media may serve as cue for the public: By delivering information about the extent and nature of Europeanized policymaking, the media enable citizens to form their own opinions and to hold their representatives accountable. In this sense media coverage may not only be considered an indicator of the information delivered to the public, but it may also enhance the democratic legitimacy of Europeanized policymaking (for a similar argument, see Tresch and Jochum 2005). While the previous contributions to this debate have examined the Europeanization of Swiss (primary and secondary) legislation, we take a closer look at two additional domestic arenas that are both supposed to be under pressure due to Europeanization: The parliament and the media. To that end, we rely on data gathered in a research project that two of us carried out in the context of the NCCR Democracy.1 While this project was primarily interested in the mediatization of decision-making processes in Switzerland, it also investigated the conditional role played by internationalization/Europeanization. For our present purposes, we shall exploit the two data-sets that were developed as part of a study of the political agenda-setting power of the media (Sciarini and Tresch 2012, 2013, Tresch et al. 2013): A data-set on issue attention in parliamentary interventions (initiatives, motions, postulates,2 interpellations and questions) and a data-set on issue attention in articles from the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ). The data covers the years 1995 to 2003 and the coding of issues followed the classification system developed in the “Policy Agendas Project” (Baumgartner and Jones 1993).

Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

The Risk of Using the Q Heterogeneity Estimator for Software Engineering Experiments

All meta-analyses should include a heterogeneity analysis. Even so, it is not easy to decide whether a set of studies are homogeneous or heterogeneous because of the low statistical power of the statistics used (usually the Q test). Objective: Determine a set of rules enabling SE researchers to find out, based on the characteristics of the experiments to be aggregated, whether or not it is feasible to accurately detect heterogeneity. Method: Evaluate the statistical power of heterogeneity detection methods using a Monte Carlo simulation process. Results: The Q test is not powerful when the meta-analysis contains up to a total of about 200 experimental subjects and the effect size difference is less than 1. Conclusions: The Q test cannot be used as a decision-making criterion for meta-analysis in small sample settings like SE. Random effects models should be used instead of fixed effects models. Caution should be exercised when applying Q test-mediated decomposition into subgroups.

A Process Asset Library to support Software Process Improvement in Small Settings

A main factor to the success of any organization process improvement effort is the Process Asset Library implementation that provides a central database accessible by anyone at the organization. This repository includes any process support materials to help process deployment. Those materials are composed of organization's standard software process, software process related documentation, descriptions of the software life cycles, guidelines, examples, templates, and any artefacts that the organization considers useful to help the process improvement. This paper describe the structure and contents of the Web-based Process Asset Library for Small businesses and small groups within large organizations. This library is structured using CMMI as reference model in order to implement those Process Areas described by this model.

Ontology driven description and engineering of autonomous systems: application to process system engineering

Autonomous systems refer to systems capable of operating in a real world environment without any form of external control for extended periods of time. Autonomy is a desired goal for every system as it improves its performance, safety and profit. Ontologies are a way to conceptualize the knowledge of a specific domain. In this paper an ontology for the description of autonomous systems as well as for its development (engineering) is presented and applied to a process. This ontology is intended to be applied and used to generate final applications following a model driven methodology.

Contribution to proactivity in mobile context-aware recommender systems

Los sistemas de recomendación son potentes herramientas de filtrado de información que permiten a usuarios solicitar sugerencias sobre ítems que cubran sus necesidades. Tradicionalmente estas recomendaciones han estado basadas en opiniones de los mismos, así como en datos obtenidos de su consumo histórico o comportamiento en el propio sistema. Sin embargo, debido a la gran penetración y uso de los dispositivos móviles en nuestra sociedad, han surgido nuevas oportunidades en el campo de los sistemas de recomendación móviles gracias a la información contextual que se puede obtener sobre la localización o actividad de los usuarios. Debido a este estilo de vida en el que todo tiende a la movilidad y donde los usuarios están plenamente interconectados, la información contextual no sólo es física, sino que también adquiere una dimensión social. Todo esto ha dado lugar a una nueva área de investigación relacionada con los Sistemas de Recomendación Basados en Contexto (CARS) móviles donde se busca incrementar el nivel de personalización de las recomendaciones al usar dicha información. Por otro lado, este nuevo escenario en el que los usuarios llevan en todo momento un terminal móvil consigo abre la puerta a nuevas formas de recomendar. Sustituir el tradicional patrón de uso basado en petición-respuesta para evolucionar hacia un sistema proactivo es ahora posible. Estos sistemas deben identificar el momento más adecuado para generar una recomendación sin una petición explícita del usuario, siendo para ello necesario analizar su contexto. Esta tesis doctoral propone un conjunto de modelos, algoritmos y métodos orientados a incorporar proactividad en CARS móviles, a la vez que se estudia el impacto que este tipo de recomendaciones tienen en la experiencia de usuario con el fin de extraer importantes conclusiones sobre "qué", "cuándo" y "cómo" se debe notificar proactivamente. Con este propósito, se comienza planteando una arquitectura general para construir CARS móviles en escenarios sociales. Adicionalmente, se propone una nueva forma de representar el proceso de recomendación a través de una interfaz REST, lo que permite crear una arquitectura independiente de dispositivo y plataforma. Los detalles de su implementación tras su puesta en marcha en el entorno bancario español permiten asimismo validar el sistema construido. Tras esto se presenta un novedoso modelo para incorporar proactividad en CARS móviles. Éste muestra las ideas principales que permiten analizar una situación para decidir cuándo es apropiada una recomendación proactiva. Para ello se presentan algoritmos que establecen relaciones entre lo propicia que es una situación y cómo esto influye en los elementos a recomendar. Asimismo, para demostrar la viabilidad de este modelo se describe su aplicación a un escenario de recomendación para herramientas de creación de contenidos educativos. Siguiendo el modelo anterior, se presenta el diseño e implementación de nuevos interfaces móviles de usuario para recomendaciones proactivas, así como los resultados de su evaluación entre usuarios, lo que aportó importantes conclusiones para identificar cuáles son los factores más relevantes a considerar en el diseño de sistemas proactivos. A raíz de los resultados anteriores, el último punto de esta tesis presenta una metodología para calcular cuán apropiada es una situación de cara a recomendar de manera proactiva siguiendo el modelo propuesto. Como conclusión, se describe la validación llevada a cabo tras la aplicación de la arquitectura, modelo de recomendación y métodos descritos en este trabajo en una red social de aprendizaje europea. Finalmente, esta tesis discute las conclusiones obtenidas a lo largo de la extensa investigación llevada a cabo, y que ha propiciado la consecución de una buena base teórica y práctica para la creación de sistemas de recomendación móviles proactivos basados en información contextual. ABSTRACT Recommender systems are powerful information filtering tools which offer users personalized suggestions about items whose aim is to satisfy their needs. Traditionally the information used to make recommendations has been based on users’ ratings or data on the item’s consumption history and transactions carried out in the system. However, due to the remarkable growth in mobile devices in our society, new opportunities have arisen to improve these systems by implementing them in ubiquitous environments which provide rich context-awareness information on their location or current activity. Because of this current all-mobile lifestyle, users are socially connected permanently, which allows their context to be enhanced not only with physical information, but also with a social dimension. As a result of these novel contextual data sources, the advent of mobile Context-Aware Recommender Systems (CARS) as a research area has appeared to improve the level of personalization in recommendation. On the other hand, this new scenario in which users have their mobile devices with them all the time offers the possibility of looking into new ways of making recommendations. Evolving the traditional user request-response pattern to a proactive approach is now possible as a result of this rich contextual scenario. Thus, the key idea is that recommendations are made to the user when the current situation is appropriate, attending to the available contextual information without an explicit user request being necessary. This dissertation proposes a set of models, algorithms and methods to incorporate proactivity into mobile CARS, while the impact of proactivity is studied in terms of user experience to extract significant outcomes as to "what", "when" and "how" proactive recommendations have to be notified to users. To this end, the development of this dissertation starts from the proposal of a general architecture for building mobile CARS in scenarios with rich social data along with a new way of managing a recommendation process through a REST interface to make this architecture multi-device and cross-platform compatible. Details as regards its implementation and evaluation in a Spanish banking scenario are provided to validate its usefulness and user acceptance. After that, a novel model is presented for proactivity in mobile CARS which shows the key ideas related to decide when a situation warrants a proactive recommendation by establishing algorithms that represent the relationship between the appropriateness of a situation and the suitability of the candidate items to be recommended. A validation of these ideas in the area of e-learning authoring tools is also presented. Following the previous model, this dissertation presents the design and implementation of new mobile user interfaces for proactive notifications. The results of an evaluation among users testing these novel interfaces is also shown to study the impact of proactivity in the user experience of mobile CARS, while significant factors associated to proactivity are also identified. The last stage of this dissertation merges the previous outcomes to design a new methodology to calculate the appropriateness of a situation so as to incorporate proactivity into mobile CARS. Additionally, this work provides details about its validation in a European e-learning social network in which the whole architecture and proactive recommendation model together with its methods have been implemented. Finally, this dissertation opens up a discussion about the conclusions obtained throughout this research, resulting in useful information from the different design and implementation stages of proactive mobile CARS.

Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

Low-Cost Radar-Based Target Identification Prototype using an Expert System

Smart and green cities are hot topics in current research because people are becoming more conscious about their impact on the environment and the sustainability of their cities as the population increases. Many researchers are searching for mechanisms that can reduce power consumption and pollution in the city environment. This paper addresses the issue of public lighting and how it can be improved in order to achieve a more energy efficient city. This work is focused on making the process of turning the streetlights on and off more intelligent so that they consume less power and cause less light pollution. The proposed solution is comprised of a radar device and an expert system implemented on a low-cost platform based on a DSP. By analyzing the radar echo in both the frequency and time domains, the system is able to detect and identify objects moving in front of it. This information is used to decide whether or not the streetlight should be turned on. Experimental results show that the proposed system can provide hit rates over 80%, promising a good performance. In addition, the proposed solution could be useful in kind of other applications such as intelligent security and surveillance systems and home automation.

Microinformática en entornos profesionales : instalación, configuración, mantenimiento y reparación

Los sistemas microinformáticos se componen principalmente de hardware y software, con el paso del tiempo el hardware se degrada, se deteriora y en ocasiones se avería. El software evoluciona, requiere un mantenimiento, de actualización y en ocasiones falla teniendo que ser reparado o reinstalado. A nivel hardware se analizan los principales componentes que integran y que son comunes en gran parte estos sistemas, tanto en equipos de sobre mesa como portátiles, independientes del sistema operativo, además de los principales periféricos, también se analizan y recomiendan algunas herramientas necesarias para realizar el montaje, mantenimiento y reparación de estos equipos. Los principales componentes hardware internos son la placa base, memoria RAM, procesador, disco duro, carcasa, fuente de alimentación y tarjeta gráfica. Los periféricos más destacados son el monitor, teclado, ratón, impresora y escáner. Se ha incluido un apartado donde se detallan los distintos tipos de BIOS y los principales parámetros de configuración. Para todos estos componentes, tanto internos como periféricos, se ha realizado un análisis de las características que ofrecen y los detalles en los que se debe prestar especial atención en el momento de seleccionar uno frente a otro. En los casos que existen diferentes tecnologías se ha hecho una comparativa entre ambas, destacando las ventajas y los inconvenientes de unas frente a otras para que sea el usuario final quien decida cual se ajusta mejor a sus necesidades en función de las prestaciones y el coste. Un ejemplo son las impresoras de inyección de tinta frente a las laser o los discos duros mecánicos en comparación con y los discos de estado sólido (SSD). Todos estos componentes están relacionados, interconectados y dependen unos de otros, se ha dedicado un capítulo exclusivamente para estudiar cómo se ensamblan estos componentes, resaltando los principales fallos que se suelen cometer o producir y se han indicado unas serie tareas de mantenimiento preventivo que se pueden realizar para prolongar la vida útil del equipo y evitar averías por mal uso. Los mantenimientos se pueden clasificar como predictivo, perfectivo, adaptativo, preventivo y correctivo. Se ha puesto el foco principalmente en dos tipos de mantenimiento, el preventivo descrito anteriormente y en el correctivo, tanto software como hardware. El mantenimiento correctivo está enfocado al análisis, localización, diagnóstico y reparación de fallos y averías hardware y software. Se describen los principales fallos que se producen en cada componente, cómo se manifiestan o qué síntomas presentan para poder realizar pruebas específicas que diagnostiquen y acoten el fallo. En los casos que es posible la reparación se detallan las instrucciones a seguir, en otro caso se recomienda la sustitución de la pieza o componente. Se ha incluido un apartado dedicado a la virtualización, una tecnología en auge que resulta muy útil para realizar pruebas de software, reduciendo tiempos y costes en las pruebas. Otro aspecto interesante de la virtualización es que se utiliza para montar diferentes servidores virtuales sobre un único servidor físico, lo cual representa un importante ahorro en hardware y costes de mantenimiento, como por ejemplo el consumo eléctrico. A nivel software se realiza un estudio detallado de los principales problemas de seguridad y vulnerabilidades a los que está expuesto un sistema microinformático enumerando y describiendo el comportamiento de los distintos tipos de elementos maliciosos que pueden infectar un equipo, las precauciones que se deben tomar para minimizar los riesgos y las utilidades que se pueden ejecutar para prevenir o limpiar un equipo en caso de infección. Los mantenimientos y asistencias técnicas, en especial las de tipo software, no siempre precisan de la atención presencial de un técnico cualificado, por ello se ha dedicado un capítulo a las herramientas de asistencia remota que se pueden utilizar en este ámbito. Se describen algunas de las más populares y utilizadas en el mercado, su funcionamiento, características y requerimientos. De esta forma el usuario puede ser atendido de una forma rápida, minimizando los tiempos de respuesta y reduciendo los costes. ABSTRACT Microcomputer systems are basically made up of pieces of hardware and software, as time pass, there’s a degradation of the hardware pieces and sometimes failures of them. The software evolves, new versions appears and requires maintenance, upgrades and sometimes also fails having to be repaired or reinstalled. The most important hardware components in a microcomputer system are analyzed in this document for a laptop or a desktop, with independency of the operating system they run. In addition to this, the main peripherals and devices are also analyzed and a recommendation about the most proper tools necessary for maintenance and repair this kind of equipment is given as well. The main internal hardware components are: motherboard, RAM memory, microprocessor, hard drive, housing box, power supply and graphics card. The most important peripherals are: monitor, keyboard, mouse, printer and scanner. A section has been also included where different types of BIOS and main settings are listed with the basic setup parameters in each case. For all these internal components and peripherals, an analysis of their features has been done. Also an indication of the details in which special attention must be payed when choosing more than one at the same time is given. In those cases where different technologies are available, a comparison among them has been done, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of selecting one or another to guide the end user to decide which one best fits his needs in terms of performance and costs. As an example, the inkjet vs the laser printers technologies has been faced, or also the mechanical hard disks vs the new solid state drives (SSD). All these components are interconnected and are dependent one to each other, a special chapter has been included in order to study how they must be assembled, emphasizing the most often mistakes and faults that can appear during that process, indicating different tasks that can be done as preventive maintenance to enlarge the life of the equipment and to prevent damage because of a wrong use. The different maintenances can be classified as: predictive, perfective, adaptive, preventive and corrective. The main focus is on the preventive maintains, described above, and in the corrective one, in software and hardware. Corrective maintenance is focused on the analysis, localization, diagnosis and repair of hardware and software failures and breakdowns. The most typical failures that can occur are described, also how they can be detected or the specific symptoms of each one in order to apply different technics or specific tests to diagnose and delimit the failure. In those cases where the reparation is possible, instructions to do so are given, otherwise, the replacement of the component is recommended. A complete section about virtualization has also been included. Virtualization is a state of the art technology that is very useful especially for testing software purposes, reducing time and costs during the tests. Another interesting aspect of virtualization is the possibility to have different virtual servers on a single physical server, which represents a significant savings in hardware inversion and maintenance costs, such as electricity consumption. In the software area, a detailed study has been done about security problems and vulnerabilities a microcomputer system is exposed, listing and describing the behavior of different types of malicious elements that can infect a computer, the precautions to be taken to minimize the risks and the tools that can be used to prevent or clean a computer system in case of infection. The software maintenance and technical assistance not always requires the physical presence of a qualified technician to solve the possible problems, that’s why a complete chapter about the remote support tools that can be used to do so has been also included. Some of the most popular ones used in the market are described with their characteristics and requirements. Using this kind of technology, final users can be served quickly, minimizing response times and reducing costs.