Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.

Navigational traffic conflict technique: a proactive approach to quantitative measurement of collision risks in port waters

Navigational safety analysis relying on collision statistics is often hampered because of low number of observations. A promising alternative approach that overcomes this problem is proposed in this paper. By analyzing critical vessel interactions this approach proactively measures collision risk in port waters. The proposed method is illustrated for quantitative measurement of collision risks in Singapore port fairways, and validated by examining correlations between the measured risks with those perceived by pilots. This method is an ethically appealing alternative to the collision-based analysis for fast, reliable and effective safety assessment, thus possesses great potential for managing collision risks in port waters.

Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.

Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.

Artful interviewing: Conducting oral history interviews for practice-led research

Recently, there has been an increased use of oral history as source material and inspiration for creative products, such as new media productions; visual art; theatre and fiction. The rise of the digital story in museum and library settings reflects a new emphasis on publishing oral histories in forms that are accessible and speak to diverse audiences. Visual artists are embracing oral history as a source of emotional, experiential and thematic authenticity (Anderson 2009 and Brown 2009). Rosemary Neill (2010) observes the rise of documentary and verbatim theatre — where the words of real people are reproduced on-stage — in Australia. Authors such as Dave Eggers (2006), M. J. Hyland (2009), Padma Viswanathan (2008) and Terry Whitebeach (2002) all acknowledge that interviews heavily inform their works of fiction. In such contexts, oral histories are not valued so much for their factual content but as sources that are at once dynamic, evolving, emotionally authentic and ambiguous. How can practice-led researchers design interviews that reflect this emphasis? In this paper, I will discuss how I developed an interview methodology for my own practice-led research project, The Artful Life Story: Oral History and Fiction. In my practice, I draw on oral histories to inform a work of fiction. I developed a methodology for eliciting sensory details and stories around place and the urban environment. I will also read an extract from ‘Evelyn on the Verandah,’ a short story based on an oral history interview with a 21 year-old woman who grew up in New Farm, which will be published in the One Book Many Brisbanes short story anthology in June this year (2010).

Confrontation and cooptation : a brief history of Australian political blogs

The history of political blogging in Australia does not entirely match the development of blogospheres in other countries. Even at its beginning, blogging was not an entirely alternative endeavour – one of the first news or political blogs was Margo Kingston’s Webdiary, hosted by the Sydney Morning Herald. In the United States, whose political blogosphere has been examined most comprehensively in the literature (see e.g. Adamic & Glance, 2005; Drezner & Farrell, 2008; Shaw & Benkler, 2012; Tremayne, 2007; Wallsten, 2008), blogging had a clear historical trajectory from alternative to mainstream medium. The Australian blogosphere, by contrast, has seen early and continued involvement from representatives of the mainstream media, blogging both for their employers and independently (Garden, 2010). Coupled with the incorporation of blog-like technologies into news websites, as well as with obvious differences in the size of the available talent pool and potential audience for political blogging in Australia, this recognition of blogging by the mainstream media may be one reason why, in political and news discussions at least, Australian bloggers did not bring about their own, local equivalents to the resignations of Dan Rather or Trent Lott in the U.S. –events which were commonly attributed in part to the work of bloggers (Simons, 2007). However, the acceptance of the blogging concept by the mainstream media has been accompanied by a comparative lack of acceptance towards individual bloggers. Analyses and commentary published by bloggers have been attacked by journalists, creating an at times antagonistic relationship between the mainstream media and bloggers (Flew & Wilson, 2010; Young, 2011). In this article, we examine the historical development of blogging in Australia, focussing primarily on political and news blogs. In particular, we review who the bloggers are and how the connections between different blogs and other titles have changed over the past decade. The paper tracks the evolution of individual and group blogs, independent and mainstream media-hosted opinion sites, and the gradual convergence of these platforms and their associated contributing authors. We conclude by examining the current state of the Australian blogosphere and its likely future development, taking into account the rise of social media, and in particular Twitter, as additional spaces for public commentary.

Analysis of involved parties in port water conflicts

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is expected to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. This study aims at examining the occurrence of traffic conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of vessels involved in navigational hazards. A binomial logit model was employed to evaluate the association of vessel attributes and the kinematic conditions with conflict severity levels. Results show a positive association for vessels of small gross tonnage, overall vessel length, vessel height and draft with conflict risk. Conflicts involving a pair of dynamic vessels sailing at low speeds also have similar effects.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Proactive management of collision risks in port waters using navigational traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. To address this safety concern, a comprehensive and structured method of collision risk management is necessary. Traditionally management of port water collision risks has been relied on historical collision data. However, this collision-data-based approach is hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of samples for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique that uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collision data. This paper proposes a collision risk management method by utilizing the principles of this technique. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which, consequently, has great potential for managing collision risks in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

Navigational safety in port waters: Techniques for modeling collision risk

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Continuing growth of shipping traffic in number and sizes is likely to result in increased number of traffic movements, which consequently could result higher risk of collisions in these restricted waters. This continually increasing safety concern warrants a comprehensive technique for modeling collision risk in port waters, particularly for modeling the probability of collision events and the associated consequences (i.e., injuries and fatalities). A number of techniques have been utilized for modeling the risk qualitatively, semi-quantitatively and quantitatively. These traditional techniques mostly rely on historical collision data, often in conjunction with expert judgments. However, these techniques are hampered by several shortcomings, such as randomness and rarity of collision occurrence leading to obtaining insufficient number of collision counts for a sound statistical analysis, insufficiency in explaining collision causation, and reactive approach to safety. A promising alternative approach that overcomes these shortcomings is the navigational traffic conflict technique (NTCT), which uses traffic conflicts as an alternative to the collisions for modeling the probability of collision events quantitatively. This article explores the existing techniques for modeling collision risk in port waters. In particular, it identifies the advantages and limitations of the traditional techniques and highlights the potentials of the NTCT in overcoming the limitations. In view of the principles of the NTCT, a structured method for managing collision risk is proposed. This risk management method allows safety analysts to diagnose safety deficiencies in a proactive manner, which consequently has great potential for managing collision risk in a fast, reliable and efficient manner.

A situated approach to historical thinking in the Australian Curriculum : History

This paper focuses on the importance of foregrounding an emphasis on the development of historical thinking in the implementation of the Australian Curriculum: History as a way of making the study of history meaningful for their students. In doing so, it argues that teachers need to take up the opportunity to situate the study of Asia as a significant component of the curriculum’s ‘Australia in a world history approach’. In the discussion on the significance of historical thinking, the paper specifically addresses those seven historical concepts articulated in the new history curriculum by drawing from the international scholarship in the field of history education on the ways in which children and adolescents think about historical content and concepts.