Remote Sensing Change Analysis Methodology to Support Traffic Monitoring Programs: Phase 2, 2004

The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) issued a report in July 2003, based on a sample study of the application of remote sensed image land use change detection to the methodology of traffic monitoring in Blackhawk County, Iowa. In summary, the results indicated a strong correlation and a statistically significant regression coefficient between the identification of built-up land use change areas from remote sensed data and corresponding changes in traffic patterns, expressed as vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Based on these results, the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) requested that CTRE expand the study area to five counties in the southwest quadrant of the state. These counties are scheduled for traffic counts in 2004, and the Iowa DOT desired the data to 1) evaluate the current methodology used to place the devices; 2) potentially influence the placement of traffic counting devices in areas of high built-up land use change; and 3) determine if opportunities exist to reduce the frequency and/or density of monitoring activity in lower trafficked rural areas of the state. This project is focused on the practical application of built-up land use change data for placement of traffic count data recording devices in five southwest Iowa counties.

Sea surface temperature datasets for climate applications from Phase 1 of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (SST CCI)

Sea surface temperature (SST) datasets have been generated from satellite observations for the period 1991–2010, intended for use in climate science applications. Attributes of the datasets specifically relevant to climate applications are: first, independence from in situ observations; second, effort to ensure homogeneity and stability through the time-series; third, context-specific uncertainty estimates attached to each SST value; and, fourth, provision of estimates of both skin SST (the fundamental measure- ment, relevant to air-sea fluxes) and SST at standard depth and local time (partly model mediated, enabling comparison with his- torical in situ datasets). These attributes in part reflect requirements solicited from climate data users prior to and during the project. Datasets consisting of SSTs on satellite swaths are derived from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs). These are then used as sole SST inputs to a daily, spatially complete, analysis SST product, with a latitude-longitude resolution of 0.05°C and good discrimination of ocean surface thermal features. A product user guide is available, linking to reports describing the datasets’ algorithmic basis, validation results, format, uncer- tainty information and experimental use in trial climate applications. Future versions of the datasets will span at least 1982–2015, better addressing the need in many climate applications for stable records of global SST that are at least 30 years in length.

Stabilized photorefractive running holograms, with arbitrarily selected phase shift, for material characterization

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Review of the economics of climate change (RECC) in the Caribbean project: Phase I climate change profiles in select Caribbean countries

These reports are the result of consultations which were conducted in 2008 in Aruba, Barbados, Netherlands Antilles, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. The objective was to obtain relevant information that would inform a Stern-type report where the economics of climate change would be examined for the Caribbean subregion. These reports will be complimented by future assessments of the costs of the “business as usual”, adaptation and mitigation responses to the potential impacts of climate change. It is anticipated that the information contained in each country report would provide a detailed account of the environmental profile and would, therefore, provide an easy point of reference for policymakers in adapting existing policy or in formulating new ones. ECLAC continues to be available to the CDCC countries to provide technical support in the area of sustainable development.

Dose-dependent change in biomarkers during neoadjuvant endocrine therapy with fulvestrant: results from NEWEST, a randomized Phase II study

NEWEST (Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy for Women with Estrogen-Sensitive Tumors) is the first study to compare biological and clinical activity of fulvestrant 500 versus 250 mg in the neoadjuvant breast cancer setting. We hypothesized that fulvestrant 500 mg may be superior to 250 mg in blocking estrogen receptor (ER) signaling and growth. A multicenter, randomized, open-label, Phase II study was performed to compare fulvestrant 500 mg (500 mg/month plus 500 mg on day 14 of month 1) versus fulvestrant 250 mg/month for 16 weeks prior to surgery in postmenopausal women with ER+ locally advanced breast cancer. Core biopsies at baseline, week 4, and surgery were assessed for biomarker changes. Primary endpoint: change in Ki67 labeling index (LI) from baseline to week 4 determined by automated computer imaging system (ACIS). Secondary endpoints: ER protein expression and function; progesterone receptor (PgR) expression; tumor response; tolerability. ER and PgR were examined retrospectively using the H score method. A total of 211 patients were randomized (fulvestrant 500 mg: n = 109; 250 mg: n = 102). At week 4, fulvestrant 500 mg resulted in greater reduction of Ki67 LI and ER expression versus 250 mg (-78.8 vs. -47.4% [p < 0.0001] and -25.0 vs. -13.5% [p = 0.0002], respectively [ACIS]); PgR suppression was not significantly different (-22.7 vs. -17.6; p = 0.5677). However, H score detected even greater suppression of ER (-50.3 vs. -13.7%; p < 0.0001) and greater PgR suppression (-80.5 vs. -46.3%; p = 0.0018) for fulvestrant 500 versus 250 mg. At week 16, tumor response rates were 22.9 and 20.6% for fulvestrant 500 and 250 mg, respectively, with considerable decline in all markers by both ACIS and H score. No detrimental effects on endometrial thickness or bone markers and no new safety concerns were identified. This provides the first evidence of greater biological activity for fulvestrant 500 versus 250 mg in depleting ER expression, function, and growth.

High-resolution stratigraphy of Central and Southern Adriatic Quaternary deposits of sub-Milankovian climate change on Mediterranean circulation

This volume is a collection of the work done in a three years-lasting PhD, focused in the analysis of Central and Southern Adriatic marine sediments, deriving from the collection of a borehole and many cores, achieved thanks to the good seismic-stratigraphic knowledge of the study area. The work was made out within European projects EC-EURODELTA (coordinated by Fabio Trincardi, ISMAR-CNR), EC-EUROSTRATAFORM (coordinated by Phil P. E. Weaver, NOC, UK), and PROMESS1 (coordinated by Serge Bernè, IFREMER, France). The analysed sedimentary successions presented highly expanded stratigraphic intervals, particularly for the last 400 kyr, 60 kyr and 6 kyr BP. These three different time-intervals resulted in a tri-partition of the PhD thesis. The study consisted of the analysis of planktic and benthic foraminifers’ assemblages (more than 560 samples analysed), as well as in preparing the material for oxygen and carbon stable isotope analyses, and interpreting and discussing the obtained dataset. The chronologic framework of the last 400 kyr was achieved for borehole PRAD1-2 (within the work-package WP6 of PROMESS1 project), collected in 186.5 m water depth. The proposed chronology derives from a multi-disciplinary approach, consisting of the integration of numerous and independent proxies, some of which analysed by other specialists within the project. The final framework based on: micropaleontology (calcareous nannofossils and foraminifers’ bioevents), climatic cyclicity (foraminifers’ assemblages), geochemistry (oxygen stable isotope, made out on planktic and benthic records), paleomagnetism, radiometric ages (14C AMS), teprhochronology, identification of sapropel-equivalent levels (Se). It’s worth to note the good consistency between the oxygen stable isotope curve obtained for borehole PRAD1-2 and other deeper Mediterranean records. The studied proxies allowed the recognition of all the isotopic intervals from MIS10 to MIS1 in PRAD1-2 record, and the base of the borehole has been ascribed to the early MIS11. Glacial and interglacial intervals identified in the Central Adriatic record have been analysed in detail for the paleo-environmental reconstruction, as well. For instance, glacial stages MIS6, MIS8 and MIS10 present peculiar foraminifers’ assemblages, composed by benthic species typical of polar regions and no longer living in the Central Adriatic nowadays. Moreover, a deepening trend in the paleo-bathymetry during glacial intervals was observed, from MIS10 (inner-shelf environment) to MIS4 (mid-shelf environment).Ten sapropel-equivalent levels have been recognised in PRAD1-2 Central Adriatic record. They showed different planktic foraminifers’ assemblages, which allowed the first distinction of events occurred during warm-climate (Se5, Se7), cold-climate (Se4, Se6 and Se8) and temperate-intermediate-climate (Se1, Se3, Se9, Se’, Se10) conditions, consistently with literature. Cold-climate sapropel equivalents are characterised by the absence of an oligotrophic phase, whereas warm-temeprate-climate sapropel equivalents present both the oligotrophic and the eutrophic phases (except for Se1). Sea floor conditions vary, according to benthic foraminifers’ assemblages, from relatively well oxygenated (Se1, Se3), to dysoxic (Se9, Se’, Se10), to highly dysoxic (Se4, Se6, Se8) to events during which benthic foraminifers are absent (Se5, Se7). These two latter levels are also characterised by the lamination of the sediment, feature never observed in literature in such shallow records. The enhanced stratification of the water column during the events Se8, Se7, Se6, Se5, Se4, and the concurring strong dilution of shallow water, pointed out by the isotope record, lead to the hypothesis of a period of intense precipitation in the Central Adriatic region, possibly due to a northward shift of the African Monsoon. Finally, the expression of Central Adriatic PRAD1-2 Se5 equivalent was compared with the same event, as registered in other Eastern Mediterranean areas. The sequence of substantially the same planktic foraminifers’ bioevents has been consistently recognised, indicating a similar evolution of the water column all over the Eastern Mediterranean; yet, the synchronism of these events cannot be demonstrated. A high resolution analysis of late Holocene (last 6000 years BP) climate change was carried out for the Adriatic area, through the recognition of planktic and benthic foraminifers’ bioevents. In particular, peaks of planktic Globigerinoides sacculifer (four during the last 5500 years BP in the most expanded core) have been interpreted, based on the ecological requirements of this species, as warm-climate, arid intervals, correspondent to periods of relative climatic optimum, such as, for instance, the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Age, the Late Bronze Age and the Copper Age. Consequently, the minima in the abundance of this biomarker could correspond to relatively cooler and more rainy periods. These conclusions are in good agreement with the isotopic and the pollen data. The Last Occurrence (LO) of G. sacculifer has been dated in this work at an average age of 550 years BP, and it is the best bioevent approximating the base of the Little Ice Age in the Adriatic. Recent literature reports the same bioevent in the Levantine Basin, showing a rather consistent age. Therefore, the LO of G. sacculifer has the potential to be extended to all the Eastern Mediterranean. Within the Little Ice Age, benthic foraminifer V. complanata shows two distinct peaks in the shallower Adriatic cores analysed, collected hundred kilometres apart, inside the mud belt environment. Based on the ecological requirements of this species, these two peaks have been interpreted as the more intense (cold and rainy) oscillations inside the LIA. The chronologic framework of the analysed cores is robust, being based on several range-finding 14C AMS ages, on estimates of the secular variation of the magnetic field, on geochemical estimates of the activity depth of 210Pb short-lived radionuclide (for the core-top ages), and is in good agreement with tephrochronologic, pollen and foraminiferal data. The intra-holocenic climate oscillations find out in the Adriatic have been compared with those pointed out in literature from other records of the Northern Hemisphere, and the chronologic constraint seems quite good. Finally, the sedimentary successions analysed allowed the review and the update of the foraminifers’ ecobiostratigraphy available from literature for the Adriatic region, thanks to the achievement of 16 ecobiozones for the last 60 kyr BP. Some bioevents are restricted to the Central Adriatic (for instance the LO of benthic Hyalinea balthica , approximating the MIS3/MIS2 boundary), others occur all over the Adriatic basin (for instance the LO of planktic Globorotalia inflata during MIS3, individuating Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle 8 (Denekamp)).

Physical model of PD behavior and relevant damage growth from micro-cavities in polyethylene-based material under AC voltage

In the framework of developing defect-based life models, in which breakdown is explicitly associated with partial discharge (PD)-induced damage growth from a defect, ageing tests and PD measurements were carried out in the lab on polyethylene (PE) layered specimens containing artificial cavities. PD activity was monitored continuously during aging. A quasi-deterministic series of stages can be observed in the behavior of the main PD parameters (i.e. discharge repetition rate and amplitude). Phase-resolved PD patterns at various ageing stages were reproduced by numerical simulation which is based on a physical discharge model devoid of adaptive parameters. The evolution of the simulation parameters provides insight into the physical-chemical changes taking place at the dielectric/cavity interface during the aging process. PD activity shows similar time behavior under constant cavity gas volume and constant cavity gas pressure conditions, suggesting that the variation of PD parameters may not be attributed to the variation of the gas pressure. Brownish PD byproducts, consisting of oxygen containing moieties, and degradation pits were found at the dielectric/cavity interface. It is speculated that the change of PD activity is related to the composition of the cavity gas, as well as to the properties of dielectric/cavity interface.

Thermoelectric properties in phase-separated half-Heusler materials

The conversion of dissipated heat into electricity is the basic principle of thermoelectricity. In this context, half-Heusler (HH) compounds are promising thermoelectric (TE) materials for waste heat recovery. They meet all the requirements for commercial TE applications, ranging from good efficiencies via environmentally friendliness to being low cost materials. This work focused on the TE properties of Ti0.3Zr0.35Hf0.35NiSn-based HH materials. This compound undergoes an intrinsic phase separation into a Ti-poor and Ti-rich HH phase during a rapid solidification process. The resulting dendritic microstructure causes a drastic reduction of the thermal conductivity, leading to higher TE efficiencies in these materials. The TE properties and temperature dependence of the phase-separated Ti0.3Zr0.35Hf0.35NiSn compound were investigated. The TE properties can be adjusted depending on the annealing treatment. The extension of annealing time for 21 days at 1000 °C revealed a reduction of the thermal conductivity and thus an enhancement of the TE performance in this sample. An increase of annealing temperature caused a change of the phase fraction ratio in favor of the Ti-rich phase, leading to an improvement of the electronic properties. rnInspired by the TE properties of the Ti0.3Zr0.35Hf0.35NiSn HH compound, the performance of different n- and p-type materials, realized via site substitution with donor and acceptor elements was examined. The fabrication of a TE n- and p-type material pair based on one starting compound can guarantee similar TE and mechanical properties and is enormous beneficial for device engineering. As donor dopants V, Nb and Sb were tested. Depending on the lattice position small doping levels were sufficient to attain distinct improvement in their TE efficiency. Acceptor-induced doping with Sc, Y and Co caused a change in the transport behavior from n- to p- type conduction, revealing the highest Seebeck coefficients obtained in the MNiSn system. rnThen, the long-term stability of an exemplary n- and p-type HH compound was proven. Surprisingly, the dendritic microstructure can be maintained even after 500 cycles (1700 h) from 373 to 873 K. The TE performance of both n- and p-type materials showed no significant change under the long-term treatment, indicating the extraordinary temperature stability of these compounds. Furthermore both HH materials revealed similar temperature-dependence of their mechanical properties. This work demonstrates the excellent suitability of phase-separated HH materials for future TE applications in the moderate temperature range.rn

High-Pressure Behavior and Phase Stability of Al5BO9, a Mullite-Type Ceramic Material

Phase stability, elastic behavior, and pressure-induced structural evolution of synthetic boron-mullite Al5BO9 (a = 5.6780(7), b = 15.035(6), and c =7.698(3) Å, space group Cmc21, Z = 4) were investigated up to 25.6(1) GPa by in situ single-crystal synchrotron X-ray diffraction with a diamond anvil cell (DAC) under hydrostatic conditions. No evidence of phase transition was observed up to 21.7(1) GPa. At 25.6(1) GPa, the refined unit-cell parameters deviated significantly from the compressional trend, and the diffraction peaks appeared broader than at lower pressure. At 26.7(1) GPa, the diffraction pattern was not indexable, suggesting amorphization of the material or a phase transition to a high-pressure polymorph. Fitting the P–V data up to 21.7(1) GPa with a second-order Birch–Murnaghan Equation-of-State, we obtained a bulk modulus KT0 = 164(1) GPa. The axial compressibilities, here described as linearized bulk moduli, are as follows: KT0(a) = 244(9), KT0(b) = 120(4), and KT0(c) = 166(11) GPa (KT0(a):KT0(b):KT0(c) = 2.03:1:1.38). The structure refinements allowed a description of the main deformation mechanisms in response to the applied pressure. The stiffer crystallographic direction appears to be controlled by the infinite chains of edge-sharing octahedra running along [100], making the structure less compressible along the a-axis than along the b- and c-axis.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

Comment on “The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature” Humlum et al. [Glob. Planet. Change 100: 51–69.]: Isotopes ignored

A recent study relying purely on statistical analysis of relatively short time series suggested substantial re-thinking of the traditional view about causality explaining the detected rising trend of atmospheric CO2 (atmCO2) concentrations. If these results are well-justified then they should surely compel a fundamental scientific shift in paradigms regarding both atmospheric greenhouse warming mechanism and global carbon cycle. However, the presented work suffers from serious logical deficiencies such as, 1) what could be the sink for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, if neither the atmosphere nor the ocean – as suggested by the authors – plays a role? 2) What is the alternative explanation for ocean acidification if the ocean is a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere? Probably the most provocative point of the commented study is that anthropogenic emissions have little influence on atmCO2 concentrations. The authors have obviously ignored the reconstructed and directly measured carbon isotopic trends of atmCO2 (both δ13C, and radiocarbon dilution) and the declining O2/N2 ratio, although these parameters provide solid evidence that fossil fuel combustion is the major source of atmCO2 increase throughout the Industrial Era.

Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD

Fluctuations in the Δ14C curve and subsequent gaps of archaeological findings at 800–650 and 400–100 BC in western and central Europe may indicate major climate-driven land-abandonment phases. To address this hypothesis radiocarbon-dated sediments from four lakes in Switzerland were studied palynologically. Pollen analysis indicates contemporaneous phases of forest clearances and of intensified land-use at 1450–1250 BC, 650–450 BC, 50 BC–100 AD and around 700 AD. These land-use expansions coincided with periods of warm climate as recorded by the Alpine dendroclimatic and Greenland oxygen isotope records. Our results suggest that harvest yields would have increased synchronously over wide areas of central and southern Europe during periods of warm and dry climate. Combined interpretation of palaeoecological and archaeological findings suggests that higher food production led to increased human populations. Positive long-term trends in pollen values of Cerealia and Plantago lanceolata indicate that technical innovations during the Bronze and Iron Age (e.g. metal ploughs, scythes, hay production, fertilising methods) gradually increased agricultural productivity. The successful adoption of yield-increasing advances cannot be explained by climatic determinism alone. Combined with archaeological evidence, our results suggest that despite considerable cycles of spatial and demographic reorganisation (repeated land abandonments and expansions, as well as large-scale migrations and population decreases), human societies were able to shift to lower subsistence levels without dramatic ruptures in material culture. However, our data imply that human societies were not able to compensate rapidly for harvest failures when climate deteriorated. Agriculture in marginal areas was abandoned, and spontaneous reforestations took place on abandoned land south and north of the Alps. Only when the climate changed again to drier and warmer conditions did a new wide-spread phase of forest clearances and field extensions occur, allowing the reoccupation of previously abandoned areas. Spatial distribution of cereal cultivation and growth requirements of Cerealia species suggest that increases in precipitation were far more decisive in driving crop failures over central and southern Europe than temperature decreases.