On the Adoption of Partial Least Squares in Psychological Research: Caveat Emptor

The partial least squares technique (PLS) has been touted as a viable alternative to latent variable structural equation modeling (SEM) for evaluating theoretical models in the differential psychology domain. We bring some balance to the discussion by reviewing the broader methodological literature to highlight: (1) the misleading characterization of PLS as an SEM method; (2) limitations of PLS for global model testing; (3) problems in testing the significance of path coefficients; (4) extremely high false positive rates when using empirical confidence intervals in conjunction with a new "sign change correction" for path coefficients; (5) misconceptions surrounding the supposedly superior ability of PLS to handle small sample sizes and non-normality; and (6) conceptual and statistical problems with formative measurement and the application of PLS to such models. Additionally, we also reanalyze the dataset provided by Willaby et al. (2015; doi:10.1016/j.paid.2014.09.008) to highlight the limitations of PLS. Our broader review and analysis of the available evidence makes it clear that PLS is not useful for statistical estimation and testing.

N-acetylcysteine treatment ameliorates the skeletal phenotype of a mouse model of diastrophic dysplasia.

Diastrophic dysplasia (DTD) is a recessive chondrodysplasia caused by mutations in SLC26A2, a cell membrane sulfate-chloride antiporter. Sulfate uptake impairment results in low cytosolic sulfate, leading to cartilage proteoglycan (PG) undersulfation. In this work, we used the dtd mouse model to study the role of N-acetyl-l-cysteine (NAC), a well-known drug with antioxidant properties, as an intracellular sulfate source for macromolecular sulfation. Because of the important pre-natal phase of skeletal development and growth, we administered 30 g/l NAC in the drinking water to pregnant mice to explore a possible transplacental effect on the fetuses. When cartilage PG sulfation was evaluated by high-performance liquid chromatography disaccharide analysis in dtd newborn mice, a marked increase in PG sulfation was observed in newborns from NAC-treated pregnancies when compared with the placebo group. Morphometric studies of the femur, tibia and ilium after skeletal staining with alcian blue and alizarin red indicated a partial rescue of abnormal bone morphology in dtd newborns from treated females, compared with pups from untreated females. The beneficial effect of increased macromolecular sulfation was confirmed by chondrocyte proliferation studies in cryosections of the tibial epiphysis by proliferating cell nuclear antigen immunohistochemistry: the percentage of proliferating cells, significantly reduced in the placebo group, reached normal values in dtd newborns from NAC-treated females. In conclusion, NAC is a useful source of sulfate for macromolecular sulfation in vivo when extracellular sulfate supply is reduced, confirming the potential of therapeutic approaches with thiol compounds to improve skeletal deformity and short stature in human DTD and related disorders.

Effect of partial-thickness tear on loading capacities of the supraspinatus tendon: a finite element analysis.

Partial-thickness tears of the supraspinatus tendon frequently occur at its insertion on the greater tubercule of the humerus, causing pain and reduced strength and range of motion. The goal of this work was to quantify the loss of loading capacity due to tendon tears at the insertion area. A finite element model of the supraspinatus tendon was developed using in vivo magnetic resonance images data. The tendon was represented by an anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive law identified with experimental measurements. A failure criterion was proposed and calibrated with experimental data. A partial-thickness tear was gradually increased, starting from the deep articular-sided fibres. For different values of tendon tear thickness, the tendon was mechanically loaded up to failure. The numerical model predicted a loss in loading capacity of the tendon as the tear thickness progressed. Tendon failure was more likely when the tendon tear exceeded 20%. The predictions of the model were consistent with experimental studies. Partial-thickness tears below 40% tear are sufficiently stable to persist physiotherapeutic exercises. Above 60% tear surgery should be considered to restore shoulder strength.

Optimal latent period in a bacteriophage population model structured by infection-age

We study the lysis timing of a bacteriophage population by means of a continuously infection-age-structured population dynamics model. The features of the model are the infection process of bacteria, the death process, and the lysis process which means the replication of bacteriophage viruses inside bacteria and the destruction of them. The time till lysis (or latent period) is assumed to have an arbitrary distribution. We have carried out an optimization procedure, and we have found that the latent period corresponding to maximal fitness (i.e. maximal growth rate of the bacteriophage population) is of fixed length. We also study the dependence of the optimal latent period on the amount of susceptible bacteria and the number of virions released by a single infection. Finally, the evolutionarily stable strategy of the latent period is also determined as a fixed period taking into account that super-infections are not considered

Characteristics of credit risk assessment methods of major Nordic banks in allocating capital when extending credits to large corporations

Credit risk assessment is an integral part of banking. Credit risk means that the return will not materialise in case the customer fails to fulfil its obligations. Thus a key component of banking is setting acceptance criteria for granting loans. Theoretical part of the study focuses on key components of credit assessment methods of Banks in the literature when extending credits to large corporations. Main component is Basel II Accord, which sets regulatory requirement for credit risk assessment methods of banks. Empirical part comprises, as primary source, analysis of major Nordic banks’ annual reports and risk management reports. As secondary source complimentary interviews were carried out with senior credit risk assessment personnel. The findings indicate that all major Nordic banks are using combination of quantitative and qualitative information in credit risk assessment model when extending credits to large corporations. The relative input of qualitative information depends on the selected approach to the credit rating, i.e. point-in-time or through-the-cycle.

Boundary identification in the domain of a parabolic partial differential equation

Bakgrunden och inspirationen till föreliggande studie är tidigare forskning i tillämpningar på randidentifiering i metallindustrin. Effektiv randidentifiering möjliggör mindre säkerhetsmarginaler och längre serviceintervall för apparaturen i industriella högtemperaturprocesser, utan ökad risk för materielhaverier. I idealfallet vore en metod för randidentifiering baserad på uppföljning av någon indirekt variabel som kan mätas rutinmässigt eller till en ringa kostnad. En dylik variabel för smältugnar är temperaturen i olika positioner i väggen. Denna kan utnyttjas som insignal till en randidentifieringsmetod för att övervaka ugnens väggtjocklek. Vi ger en bakgrund och motivering till valet av den geometriskt endimensionella dynamiska modellen för randidentifiering, som diskuteras i arbetets senare del, framom en flerdimensionell geometrisk beskrivning. I de aktuella industriella tillämpningarna är dynamiken samt fördelarna med en enkel modellstruktur viktigare än exakt geometrisk beskrivning. Lösningsmetoder för den s.k. sidledes värmeledningsekvationen har många saker gemensamt med randidentifiering. Därför studerar vi egenskaper hos lösningarna till denna ekvation, inverkan av mätfel och något som brukar kallas förorening av mätbrus, regularisering och allmännare följder av icke-välställdheten hos sidledes värmeledningsekvationen. Vi studerar en uppsättning av tre olika metoder för randidentifiering, av vilka de två första är utvecklade från en strikt matematisk och den tredje från en mera tillämpad utgångspunkt. Metoderna har olika egenskaper med specifika fördelar och nackdelar. De rent matematiskt baserade metoderna karakteriseras av god noggrannhet och låg numerisk kostnad, dock till priset av låg flexibilitet i formuleringen av den modellbeskrivande partiella differentialekvationen. Den tredje, mera tillämpade, metoden kännetecknas av en sämre noggrannhet förorsakad av en högre grad av icke-välställdhet hos den mera flexibla modellen. För denna gjordes även en ansats till feluppskattning, som senare kunde observeras överensstämma med praktiska beräkningar med metoden. Studien kan anses vara en god startpunkt och matematisk bas för utveckling av industriella tillämpningar av randidentifiering, speciellt mot hantering av olinjära och diskontinuerliga materialegenskaper och plötsliga förändringar orsakade av “nedfallande” väggmaterial. Med de behandlade metoderna förefaller det möjligt att uppnå en robust, snabb och tillräckligt noggrann metod av begränsad komplexitet för randidentifiering.

A multicriteria model to assess tractors used in family agriculture

In recent years, public policy has been offering subsidized credit for machine purchase to family farmers. However, there is no methodological procedure to select a suitable tractor for these farmers' situation. In this way, we aimed to develop a selection model for smallholder farmers from Pelotas city region in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Building a multicriteria model to aid decisions is divided into three main stages: structuring stage (identifying stakeholders, decisional context and model creation), evaluation stage (stakeholder preference quantification) and recommendation stage (choice selection). The Multicriteria method is able to identify and value the criteria used in tractor selection by regional family farmers. Six main evaluation areas were identified: operational cost (weight 0.20), purchase cost (weight 0.22), maintainability (weight 0.10), tractor capacity (weight 0.26), ergonomics (weight 0.14) and safety (weight 0.08). The best-rated tractor model (14.7 kW rated power) also was the one purchased by 53.3% of local families.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options

En option är ett finansiellt kontrakt som ger dess innehavare en rättighet (men medför ingen skyldighet) att sälja eller köpa någonting (till exempel en aktie) till eller från säljaren av optionen till ett visst pris vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Den som säljer optionen binder sig till att gå med på denna framtida transaktion ifall optionsinnehavaren längre fram bestämmer sig för att inlösa optionen. Säljaren av optionen åtar sig alltså en risk av att den framtida transaktion som optionsinnehavaren kan tvinga honom att göra visar sig vara ofördelaktig för honom. Frågan om hur säljaren kan skydda sig mot denna risk leder till intressanta optimeringsproblem, där målet är att hitta en optimal skyddsstrategi under vissa givna villkor. Sådana optimeringsproblem har studerats mycket inom finansiell matematik. Avhandlingen "The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options" inför en ytterligare synpunkt till denna diskussion: I en relativt enkel (ändlig och komplett) marknadsmodell kan nämligen vissa partiella skyddsproblem beskrivas som så kallade kappsäcksproblem. De sistnämnda är välkända inom en gren av matematik som heter operationsanalys. I avhandlingen visas hur skyddsproblem som tidigare lösts på andra sätt kan alternativt lösas med hjälp av metoder som utvecklats för kappsäcksproblem. Förfarandet tillämpas även på helt nya skyddsproblem i samband med så kallade amerikanska optioner.

A temperature predicting model for manufacturing processes requiring coiling

A model for predicting temperature evolution for automatic controling systems in manufacturing processes requiring the coiling of bars in the transfer table is presented. Although the method is of a general nature, the presentation in this work refers to the manufacturing of steel plates in hot rolling mills. The predicting strategy is based on a mathematical model of the evolution of temperature in a coiling and uncoiling bar and is presented in the form of a parabolic partial differential equation for a shape changing domain. The mathematical model is solved numerically by a space discretization via geometrically adaptive finite elements which accomodate the change in shape of the domain, using a computationally novel treatment of the resulting thermal contact problem due to coiling. Time is discretized according to a Crank-Nicolson scheme. Since the actual physical process takes less time than the time required by the process controlling computer to solve the full mathematical model, a special predictive device was developed, in the form of a set of least squares polynomials, based on the off-line numerical solution of the mathematical model.

Hepatic capillariasis in rats: a new model for testing antifibrotic drugs

Rats infected with the helminth Capillaria hepatica regularly develop septal hepatic fibrosis that may progress to cirrhosis in a relatively short time. Because of such characteristics, this experimental model was selected for testing drugs exhibiting antifibrosis potential, such as pentoxifylline, gadolinium chloride and vitamin A. Hepatic fibrosis was qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated in liver samples obtained by partial hepatectomy and at autopsy. The material was submitted to histological, biochemical and morphometric methods. A statistically significant reduction of fibrosis was obtained with pentoxifylline when administered intraperitoneally rather than intravenously. Gadolinium chloride showed moderate activity when administered prophylactically (before fibrosis had started), but showed a poor effect when fibrosis was well advanced. No modification of fibrosis was seen after vitamin A administration. Hydroxyproline content was correlated with morphometric measurements. The model appears to be adequate, since few animals die of the infection, fibrosis develops regularly in all animals, and the effects of different antifibrotic drugs and administration protocols can be easily detected.

Mechanisms underlying gas exchange alterations in an experimental model of pulmonary embolism

The aim of the present study was to determine the ventilation/perfusion ratio that contributes to hypoxemia in pulmonary embolism by analyzing blood gases and volumetric capnography in a model of experimental acute pulmonary embolism. Pulmonary embolization with autologous blood clots was induced in seven pigs weighing 24.00 ± 0.6 kg, anesthetized and mechanically ventilated. Significant changes occurred from baseline to 20 min after embolization, such as reduction in oxygen partial pressures in arterial blood (from 87.71 ± 8.64 to 39.14 ± 6.77 mmHg) and alveolar air (from 92.97 ± 2.14 to 63.91 ± 8.27 mmHg). The effective alveolar ventilation exhibited a significant reduction (from 199.62 ± 42.01 to 84.34 ± 44.13) consistent with the fall in alveolar gas volume that effectively participated in gas exchange. The relation between the alveolar ventilation that effectively participated in gas exchange and cardiac output (V Aeff/Q ratio) also presented a significant reduction after embolization (from 0.96 ± 0.34 to 0.33 ± 0.17 fraction). The carbon dioxide partial pressure increased significantly in arterial blood (from 37.51 ± 1.71 to 60.76 ± 6.62 mmHg), but decreased significantly in exhaled air at the end of the respiratory cycle (from 35.57 ± 1.22 to 23.15 ± 8.24 mmHg). Exhaled air at the end of the respiratory cycle returned to baseline values 40 min after embolism. The arterial to alveolar carbon dioxide gradient increased significantly (from 1.94 ± 1.36 to 37.61 ± 12.79 mmHg), as also did the calculated alveolar (from 56.38 ± 22.47 to 178.09 ± 37.46 mL) and physiological (from 0.37 ± 0.05 to 0.75 ± 0.10 fraction) dead spaces. Based on our data, we conclude that the severe arterial hypoxemia observed in this experimental model may be attributed to the reduction of the V Aeff/Q ratio. We were also able to demonstrate that V Aeff/Q progressively improves after embolization, a fact attributed to the alveolar ventilation redistribution induced by hypocapnic bronchoconstriction.

A model of dynamic liquidity contracts

I study long-term financial contracts between lenders and borrowers in the absence of perfect enforceability and when both parties are credit constrained. Borrowers repeatedly have projects to undertake and need external financing. Lenders can commit to contractual agreements whereas borrowers can renege any period. I show that equilibrium contracts feature interesting dynamics: the economy exhibits efficient investment cycles; absence of perfect enforcement and shortage of capital skew the cycles toward states of liquidity drought; credit is rationed if either the lender has too little capital or if the borrower has too little collateral. This paper's technical contribution is its demonstration of the existence and characterization of financial contracts that are solutions to a non-convex dynamic programming problem.

Impact of (pro)renin receptor deficiency in adipose tissue using a genetically engineered mouse model

La stimulation du récepteur de la rénine/prorénine [(P) RR], un membre récemment découvert du système rénine-angiotensine (SRA), augmente l'activité du SRA et des voies de signalisation angiotensine II-indépendante. Pour étudier l'impact potentiel du (P)RR dans le développement de l`obésité, nous avons émis l'hypothèse que les souris déficientes en (P)RR uniquement dans le tissus adipeux (KO) auront une diminution du poids corporel en ciblant le métabolisme du tissu adipeux, l'activité locomoteur et/ou la prise alimentaire. Ainsi, des souris KO ont été générées en utilisant la technologie Cre/Lox. Le gain de poids et la prise alimentaire ont été évalués hebdomadairement dans les mâles et femelles KO et de type sauvage (WT) pendant 4 semaines alors qu’ils étaient maintenu sur une diète normal. De plus, un groupe de femelles a été placé pour 6 semaines sur une diète riche en gras et en glucides (HF/HC). La composition corporelle et l'activité ambulatoire ont été évaluées par l’EchoMRI et à l’aide de cages Physioscan, respectivement. Les tissus adipeux ont été prélevés et pesés. De plus, les gras péri-gonadaux ont été utilisés pour le microarray. Finalement, le niveaux d'expression d'ARNm du (P)RR ont été évalués. Comme le gène du (P)RR est situé sur le chromosome X, les mâles étaient des KOs complets et les femelles étaient des KOs partielles. Les souris KO avaient un poids corporel significativement plus petit par rapport à WT, les différences étant plus prononcées chez les mâles. De plus, les femelles KOs étaient résistantes à l'obésité lorsqu'elles ont été placées sur la diète HF/HC et donc elles avaient significativement moins de masse grasse par rapport aux WTs. L’analyse histologique des gras péri-gonadaux des KOs nous ont dévoilés qu’il avait une réduction du nombre d'adipocytes mais de plus grande taille. Bien qu'il n'y ait eu aucun changement dans la consommation alimentaire, une augmentation de près de 3 fois de l'activité ambulatoire a été détectée chez les mâles. De plus, nous avons observé que leurs tibias étaient de longueur réduite ce qui suggère fortement l'affection de leur développement. Les gras péri-gonadaux des souris KO avaient une expression réduite de l`ABLIM2 (Actin binding LIM protein family, member 2) qui est associé avec le diabète de type II chez l'humain. Ainsi, les données recueillies suggèrent fortement que le (P)RR est impliquée dans la régulation du poids corporelle.

Essays in partial identification and applications to treatment effects and policy evaluation.

Dans cette thèse, je me suis interessé à l’identification partielle des effets de traitements dans différents modèles de choix discrets avec traitements endogènes. Les modèles d’effets de traitement ont pour but de mesurer l’impact de certaines interventions sur certaines variables d’intérêt. Le type de traitement et la variable d’intérêt peuvent être défini de manière générale afin de pouvoir être appliqué à plusieurs différents contextes. Il y a plusieurs exemples de traitement en économie du travail, de la santé, de l’éducation, ou en organisation industrielle telle que les programmes de formation à l’emploi, les techniques médicales, l’investissement en recherche et développement, ou l’appartenance à un syndicat. La décision d’être traité ou pas n’est généralement pas aléatoire mais est basée sur des choix et des préférences individuelles. Dans un tel contexte, mesurer l’effet du traitement devient problématique car il faut tenir compte du biais de sélection. Plusieurs versions paramétriques de ces modèles ont été largement étudiées dans la littérature, cependant dans les modèles à variation discrète, la paramétrisation est une source importante d’identification. Dans un tel contexte, il est donc difficile de savoir si les résultats empiriques obtenus sont guidés par les données ou par la paramétrisation imposée au modèle. Etant donné, que les formes paramétriques proposées pour ces types de modèles n’ont généralement pas de fondement économique, je propose dans cette thèse de regarder la version nonparamétrique de ces modèles. Ceci permettra donc de proposer des politiques économiques plus robustes. La principale difficulté dans l’identification nonparamétrique de fonctions structurelles, est le fait que la structure suggérée ne permet pas d’identifier un unique processus générateur des données et ceci peut être du soit à la présence d’équilibres multiples ou soit à des contraintes sur les observables. Dans de telles situations, les méthodes d’identifications traditionnelles deviennent inapplicable d’où le récent développement de la littérature sur l’identification dans les modèles incomplets. Cette littérature porte une attention particuliere à l’identification de l’ensemble des fonctions structurelles d’intérêt qui sont compatibles avec la vraie distribution des données, cet ensemble est appelé : l’ensemble identifié. Par conséquent, dans le premier chapitre de la thèse, je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans le modèle triangulaire binaire. Dans le second chapitre, je considère le modèle de Roy discret. Je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les effets de traitements dans un modèle de choix de secteur lorsque la variable d’intérêt est discrète. Les hypothèses de sélection du secteur comprennent le choix de sélection simple, étendu et généralisé de Roy. Dans le dernier chapitre, je considère un modèle à variable dépendante binaire avec plusieurs dimensions d’hétérogéneité, tels que les jeux d’entrées ou de participation. je caractérise l’ensemble identifié pour les fonctions de profits des firmes dans un jeux avec deux firmes et à information complète. Dans tout les chapitres, l’ensemble identifié des fonctions d’intérêt sont écrites sous formes de bornes et assez simple pour être estimées à partir des méthodes d’inférence existantes.