Cointegration: Bayesian Significance Test

To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results". The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used.

Essays in Macroecometrics: methodological aspects and empirical applications

In the first chapter, I develop a panel no-cointegration test which extends Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001)'s bounds test to the panel framework by considering the individual regressions in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system. This allows to take into account unobserved common factors that contemporaneously affect all the units of the panel and provides, at the same time, unit-specific test statistics. Moreover, the approach is particularly suited when the number of individuals of the panel is small relatively to the number of time series observations. I develop the algorithm to implement the test and I use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the properties of the test. The small sample properties of the test are remarkable, compared to its single equation counterpart. I illustrate the use of the test through a test of Purchasing Power Parity in a panel of EU15 countries. In the second chapter of my PhD thesis, I verify the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure in the repurchasing agreements (repo) market with a new testing approach. I consider an "inexact" formulation of the EHTS, which models a time-varying component in the risk premia and I treat the interest rates as a non-stationary cointegrated system. The effect of the heteroskedasticity is controlled by means of testing procedures (bootstrap and heteroskedasticity correction) which are robust to variance and covariance shifts over time. I fi#nd that the long-run implications of EHTS are verified. A rolling window analysis clarifies that the EHTS is only rejected in periods of turbulence of #financial markets. The third chapter introduces the Stata command "bootrank" which implements the bootstrap likelihood ratio rank test algorithm developed by Cavaliere et al. (2012). The command is illustrated through an empirical application on the term structure of interest rates in the US.

Eczematous skin reaction to atopy patch testing with cockroach in patients with atopic dermatitis

BACKGROUND: Aeroallergens from house dust mite (HDM) may be an important trigger in a subgroup of patients with atopic dermatitis (AD). HDM and cockroach (CR) contain cross-reactive allergens, such as tropomyosin. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the diagnostic value of patch testing with an aeroallergen and the role of CR allergen and HDM allergen in persons with AD. METHODS: We performed skin prick tests (SPT) with a panel of common aeroallergens and total serum immunoglobulin (Ig)E and specific IgE tests for CR and HDM on 23 patients with AD and 9 nonatopic control participants. Atopy patch tests (APT) were performed with CR and HDM extracts on clinically uninvolved skin on the back, and evaluated after 48 and 72 hours. RESULTS: A positive APT reaction to CR was found in 10/23 (43%) patients with AD. No positive reactions were observed in the nonatopic control participants. Positive APT reactions for CR showed no significant correlation with SPT or specific IgE levels for this allergen. Twelve of the 23 (52%) patients with AD were also sensitized to HDM. There was no significant correlation between positive results for SPT, APT, and specific IgE to CR and HDM. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that CR allergens can induce positive patch test reactions in patients with AD. The absence of a significant correlation to SPT and specific IgE antibodies suggests that T-cell- and IgE-sensitization may be mediated by different allergens. There was no significant relationship between CR and HDM sensitivity, thus indicating no major cross-reactivity.

Stable expression of Escherichia coli beta-glucuronidase A (GusA) in Giardia lamblia: application to high-throughput drug susceptibility testing

OBJECTIVES: In order to create a suitable model for high-throughput drug screening, a Giardia lamblia WB C6 strain expressing Escherichia coli glucuronidase A (GusA) was created and tested with respect to susceptibility to the anti-giardial drugs nitazoxanide and metronidazole. METHODS: GusA, a well-established reporter gene in other systems, was cloned into the vector pPacVInteg allowing stable expression in G. lamblia under control of the promoter from the glutamate dehydrogenase (gdh) gene. The resulting transgenic strain was compared with the wild-type strain in a vitality assay, characterized with respect to susceptibility to nitazoxanide, metronidazole and -- as assessed in a 96-well plate format -- to a panel of 15 other compounds to be tested for anti-giardial activity. RESULTS: GusA was stably expressed in G. lamblia. Using a simple glucuronidase assay protocol, drug efficacy tests yielded results similar to those from cell counting. CONCLUSIONS: G. lamblia WB C6 GusA is a suitable tool for high-throughput anti-giardial drug screening.

Candida species distribution and antifungal susceptibility testing according to European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing and new vs. old Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute clinical breakpoints: a 6-year prospective candidaemia survey from the fungal infection network of Switzerland

We analyzed the species distribution of Candida blood isolates (CBIs), prospectively collected between 2004 and 2009 within FUNGINOS, and compared their antifungal susceptibility according to clinical breakpoints defined by the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) in 2013, and the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) in 2008 (old CLSI breakpoints) and 2012 (new CLSI breakpoints). CBIs were tested for susceptiblity to fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin by microtitre broth dilution (Sensititre® YeastOne™ test panel). Of 1090 CBIs, 675 (61.9%) were C. albicans, 191 (17.5%) C. glabrata, 64 (5.9%) C. tropicalis, 59 (5.4%) C. parapsilosis, 33 (3%) C. dubliniensis, 22 (2%) C. krusei and 46 (4.2%) rare Candida species. Independently of the breakpoints applied, C. albicans was almost uniformly (>98%) susceptible to all three antifungal agents. In contrast, the proportions of fluconazole- and voriconazole-susceptible C. tropicalis and F-susceptible C. parapsilosis were lower according to EUCAST/new CLSI breakpoints than to the old CLSI breakpoints. For caspofungin, non-susceptibility occurred mainly in C. krusei (63.3%) and C. glabrata (9.4%). Nine isolates (five C. tropicalis, three C. albicans and one C. parapsilosis) were cross-resistant to azoles according to EUCAST breakpoints, compared with three isolates (two C. albicans and one C. tropicalis) according to new and two (2 C. albicans) according to old CLSI breakpoints. Four species (C. albicans, C. glabrata, C. tropicalis and C. parapsilosis) represented >90% of all CBIs. In vitro resistance to fluconazole, voriconazole and caspofungin was rare among C. albicans, but an increase of non-susceptibile isolates was observed among C. tropicalis/C. parapsilosis for the azoles and C. glabrata/C. krusei for caspofungin according to EUCAST and new CLSI breakpoints compared with old CLSI breakpoints.

Evaluation of the diagnostic value of serologic microagglutination testing and a polymerase chain reaction assay for diagnosis of acute leptospirosis in dogs in a referral center.

OBJECTIVE To determine the diagnostic value of a serologic microagglutination test (MAT) and a PCR assay on urine and blood for the diagnosis of leptospirosis in dogs with acute kidney injury (AKI). DESIGN Cross-sectional study. Animals-76 dogs with AKI in a referral hospital (2008 to 2009). PROCEDURES Dogs' leptospirosis status was defined with a paired serologic MAT against a panel of 11 Leptospira serovars as leptospirosis-associated (n = 30) or nonleptospirosis-associated AKI (12). In 34 dogs, convalescent serologic testing was not possible, and leptospirosis status was classified as undetermined. The diagnostic value of the MAT single acute or convalescent blood sample was determined in dogs in which leptospirosis status could be classified. The diagnostic value of a commercially available genus-specific PCR assay was evaluated by use of 36 blood samples and 20 urine samples. RESULTS Serologic acute testing of an acute blood sample had a specificity of 100% (95% CI, 76% to 100%), a sensitivity of 50% (33% to 67%), and an accuracy of 64% (49% to 77%). Serologic testing of a convalescent blood sample had a specificity of 92% (65% to 99%), a sensitivity of 100% (87% to 100%), and an accuracy of 98% (88% to 100%). Results of the Leptospira PCR assay were negative for all samples from dogs for which leptospirosis status could be classified. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Serologic MAT results were highly accurate for diagnosis of leptospirosis in dogs, despite a low sensitivity for early diagnosis. In this referral setting of dogs pretreated with antimicrobials, testing of blood and urine samples with a commercially available genus-specific PCR assay did not improve early diagnosis.

Genetic testing for TMEM154 mutations associated with lentivirus susceptibility in sheep.

In sheep, small ruminant lentiviruses cause an incurable, progressive, lymphoproliferative disease that affects millions of animals worldwide. Known as ovine progressive pneumonia virus (OPPV) in the U.S., and Visna/Maedi virus (VMV) elsewhere, these viruses reduce an animal's health, productivity, and lifespan. Genetic variation in the ovine transmembrane protein 154 gene (TMEM154) has been previously associated with OPPV infection in U.S. sheep. Sheep with the ancestral TMEM154 haplotype encoding glutamate (E) at position 35, and either form of an N70I variant, were highly-susceptible compared to sheep homozygous for the K35 missense mutation. Our current overall aim was to characterize TMEM154 in sheep from around the world to develop an efficient genetic test for reduced susceptibility. The average frequency of TMEM154 E35 among 74 breeds was 0.51 and indicated that highly-susceptible alleles were present in most breeds around the world. Analysis of whole genome sequences from an international panel of 75 sheep revealed more than 1,300 previously unreported polymorphisms in a 62 kb region containing TMEM154 and confirmed that the most susceptible haplotypes were distributed worldwide. Novel missense mutations were discovered in the signal peptide (A13V) and the extracellular domains (E31Q, I74F, and I102T) of TMEM154. A matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time-of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS) assay was developed to detect these and six previously reported missense and two deletion mutations in TMEM154. In blinded trials, the call rate for the eight most common coding polymorphisms was 99.4% for 499 sheep tested and 96.0% of the animals were assigned paired TMEM154 haplotypes (i.e., diplotypes). The widespread distribution of highly-susceptible TMEM154 alleles suggests that genetic testing and selection may improve the health and productivity of infected flocks.

SNPs for parentage testing and traceability in globally diverse breeds of sheep

DNA-based parentage determination accelerates genetic improvement in sheep by increasing pedigree accuracy. Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers can be used for determining parentage and to provide unique molecular identifiers for tracing sheep products to their source. However, the utility of a particular "parentage SNP" varies by breed depending on its minor allele frequency (MAF) and its sequence context. Our aims were to identify parentage SNPs with exceptional qualities for use in globally diverse breeds and to develop a subset for use in North American sheep. Starting with genotypes from 2,915 sheep and 74 breed groups provided by the International Sheep Genomics Consortium (ISGC), we analyzed 47,693 autosomal SNPs by multiple criteria and selected 163 with desirable properties for parentage testing. On average, each of the 163 SNPs was highly informative (MAF≥0.3) in 48±5 breed groups. Nearby polymorphisms that could otherwise confound genetic testing were identified by whole genome and Sanger sequencing of 166 sheep from 54 breed groups. A genetic test with 109 of the 163 parentage SNPs was developed for matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time-of-flight mass spectrometry. The scoring rates and accuracies for these 109 SNPs were greater than 99% in a panel of North American sheep. In a blinded set of 96 families (sire, dam, and non-identical twin lambs), each parent of every lamb was identified without using the other parent's genotype. In 74 ISGC breed groups, the median estimates for probability of a coincidental match between two animals (PI), and the fraction of potential adults excluded from parentage (PE) were 1.1×10(-39) and 0.999987, respectively, for the 109 SNPs combined. The availability of a well-characterized set of 163 parentage SNPs facilitates the development of high-throughput genetic technologies for implementing accurate and economical parentage testing and traceability in many of the world's sheep breeds.

Strategic use of serology for the diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis after intradermal skin testing

Diagnostic tests based on cell-mediated immunity are used in programmes for eradication of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis). Serological assays could be applied as ancillary methods to detect infected animals. Our objective was to evaluate two serological techniques: M. bovis Ab Test (IDEXX, USA) and Enferplex™ TB assay (Enfer, Ireland) in animals tested simultaneously with the single and comparative intradermal tests and the interferon-gamma assay. This work was performed at two stages. First, a preliminary panel of samples collected prior to intradermal tests from tuberculosis-free (n=60) and M. bovis-infected herds (n=78) was assayed, obtaining high specificity: 100% (M. bovis Ab Test) and 98.3% (Enferplex TB assay) but low sensitivity (detection of M. bovis infected animals): 23.9% (M. bovis Ab Test) and 32.6% (Enferplex TB assay). Subsequently, the use of serological techniques was further studied in two herds with M. bovis infection (n=77) using samples collected prior to, and 72 h and 15 days after PPD inoculation. The highest level of detection of infected animals for serology was achieved at 15 days post-intradermal tests taking advantage of the anamnestic effect: 70.4% and 85.2% in herd A, and 66.7% and 83.3% in herd B, using M. bovis Ab Test and Enferplex TB assay, respectively. Quantitative results (average values obtained with M. bovis Ab Test ELISA and degree of positivity obtained with Enferplex TB assay) were higher in animals showing lesions compatible with tuberculosis. No significant differences were observed in the number of confirmed infected animals detected with either serological technique.

Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries

This paper tests the presence of balance sheets effects and analyzes the implications for exchange rate policies in emerging markets. The results reveal that the emerging market bond index (EMBI) is negatively related to the banks' foreign currency leverage, and that these banks' foreign currency exposures are relatively unhedged. Panel SVAR methods using EMBI instead of advanced country lending rates find, contrary to the literature, that the amplitude of output responses to foreign interest rate shocks are smaller under relatively fixed regimes. The findings are robust to the local projections method of obtaining impulse responses, using country specific and GARCH-SVAR models.

Explicit Expressions for Solar Panel Equivalent Circuit Parameters Based on Analytical Formulation and the Lambert W-Function

Due to the high dependence of photovoltaic energy efficiency on environmental conditions (temperature, irradiation...), it is quite important to perform some analysis focusing on the characteristics of photovoltaic devices in order to optimize energy production, even for small-scale users. The use of equivalent circuits is the preferred option to analyze solar cells/panels performance. However, the aforementioned small-scale users rarely have the equipment or expertise to perform large testing/calculation campaigns, the only information available for them being the manufacturer datasheet. The solution to this problem is the development of new and simple methods to define equivalent circuits able to reproduce the behavior of the panel for any working condition, from a very small amount of information. In the present work a direct and completely explicit method to extract solar cell parameters from the manufacturer datasheet is presented and tested. This method is based on analytical formulation which includes the use of the Lambert W-function to turn the series resistor equation explicit. The presented method is used to analyze commercial solar panel performance (i.e., the current-voltage–I-V–curve) at different levels of irradiation and temperature. The analysis performed is based only on the information included in the manufacturer’s datasheet.

Explicit expressions for solar panel equivalent circuit parameters based on analytical formulation and the Lambert W - Function

Due to the high dependence of photovoltaic energy efficiency on environmental conditions (temperature, irradiation...), it is quite important to perform some analysis focusing on the characteristics of photovoltaic devices in order to optimize energy production, even for small-scale users. The use of equivalent circuits is the preferred option to analyze solar cells/panels performance. However, the aforementioned small-scale users rarely have the equipment or expertise to perform large testing/calculation campaigns, the only information available for them being the manufacturer datasheet. The solution to this problem is the development of new and simple methods to define equivalent circuits able to reproduce the behavior of the panel for any working condition, from a very small amount of information. In the present work a direct and completely explicit method to extract solar cell parameters from the manufacturer datasheet is presented and tested. This method is based on analytical formulation which includes the use of the Lambert W-function to turn the series resistor equation explicit. The presented method is used to analyze the performance (i.e., the I - V curve) of a commercial solar panel at different levels of irradiation and temperature. The analysis performed is based only on the information included in the manufacturer's datasheet.

A general framework to testing the effect of transport policy measures to achieve a modal shift: a sequental hybrid model

In order to achieve to minimize car-based trips, transport planners have been particularly interested in understanding the factors that explain modal choices. In the transport modelling literature there has been an increasing awareness that socioeconomic attributes and quantitative variables are not sufficient to characterize travelers and forecast their travel behavior. Recent studies have also recognized that users? social interactions and land use patterns influence travel behavior, especially when changes to transport systems are introduced, but links between international and Spanish perspectives are rarely deal. In this paper, factorial and path analyses through a Multiple-Indicator Multiple-Cause (MIMIC) model are used to understand and describe the relationship between the different psychological and environmental constructs with social influence and socioeconomic variables. The MIMIC model generates Latent Variables (LVs) to be incorporated sequentially into Discrete Choice Models (DCM) where the levels of service and cost attributes of travel modes are also included directly to measure the effect of the transport policies that have been introduced in Madrid during the last three years in the context of the economic crisis. The data used for this paper are collected from a two panel smartphone-based survey (n=255 and 190 respondents, respectively) of Madrid.

Panel evaluation of the NHTSA approach to the 1960-1963 Corvair handling and stability. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Elevated-temperature properties of carbon steel. Data compiled by and issued under the auspices of the Data and Publications Panel of the ASTM-ASME Joint Committee on Effect of Temperature on the Properties of Metals.

Mode of access: Internet.