Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Promoting the European Union : Attitudinal stance adjectives in three genres of EU communication to the public

Målet för Pro Gradu-avhandlingen är att undersöka hur Europeiska unionen (EU) marknadsförs genom användningen av värderande adjektiv i tre genrer av skriftlig kommunikation från EU till medlemsstaternas medborgare. Undersökningen är inriktad på tre forskningsfrågor: hur marknadsföringen av EU syns i användningen av värderande adjektiv i de tre genrerna, vilka de centrala skillnaderna mellan de tre genrerna är gällande användningen av värderande adjektiv, samt på vilket sätt texterna uppfyller sitt kommunikativa syfte, nämligen att informera allmänheten om EU:s verksamhet och marknadsföra EU som en giltig och handlingskraftig union. Den teoretiska ramen för undersökningen grundar sig på genreanalys, kommunikationsteori och teorier om hur författarens värdering (stance) syns i texter. Skillnaden mellan genre, texttyp och register diskuteras, och teoridelen redogör även för begreppet diskurssamfund, dvs. den grupp personer som i ett yrkesmässigt eller institutionellt sammanhang producerar och använder sig av en genre enligt dess kommunikativa konventioner. Materialet behandlas även utgående från Egon Werlichs indelning av texttyper i deskriptiva, narrativa, expositära, argumentativa och instruktiva texter. Materialet består av tre delar som representerar var sin genre: informationsbroschyrer, pressmeddelanden och den Allmänna rapporten om Europeiska unionens verksamhet, som utges av EU varje år. Storleken på varje del av materialet varierar mellan 20 000 - 30 000 ord. Materialet har valts på basis av de teman texterna behandlar, och kriterierna för urvalet är bl.a. att texterna behandlar ämnen som har anknytning till medborgarnas vardag, att de är riktade till allmänheten, och att de finns tillgängliga på Internet. Undersökningen är genomförd som en kvalitativ genreanalys. Materialet analyseras först utgående från kontexten och det samhälleliga sammanhanget enligt Vijay K. Bhatias metodik för analys av obekanta genrer. Det kommunikativa syftet, författaren och den tilltänkta läsarkretsen, dvs. målgruppen för kommunikationen, fastställs. Värderande adjektiv som uttrycker författarens hållning har plockats ur texten manuellt och med hjälp av konkordansprogrammet AntConc, och placerats i 16 kategorier enligt de värden de uttrycker. Varje genre analyseras sedan språkligt med utgångspunkt i adjektivlistorna, varefter resultaten jämförs med varandra. Undersökningen visar att pressmeddelandena innehåller det största antalet värderande adjektiv, medan informationsbroschyrerna innehåller det minsta antalet värderande adjektiv. Den Allmänna rapporten om Europeiska unionens verksamhet innehåller delar med tätt förekommande värderande adjektiv, i synnerhet i stycken som behandlar mer kontroversiella ämnen. I alla tre genrer sammanfaller ett högt antal värderande adjektiv med argumentativ text, och argumentativ text förekommer främst då ämnet som diskuteras rör sig på en mer abstrakt nivå, t.ex. om EU:s värderingar och grundläggande principer, eller då texten behandlar sådan politik som delar allmänhetens uppfattning. För EU utgör alla tre genrer viktiga kanaler för kommunikationen till medlemsstaternas medborgare, och EU kan genom sitt informationsmaterial och sina officiella publikationer informera om, förklara och marknadsföra sin verksamhet på ett sätt som avser att upprätthålla och förbättra EU:s image. Utarbetandet av lämpliga texter är ändå krävande på grund av den heterogena målgruppen, och det är en utmaning i sig att få fram rätt budskap bland det stora utbudet information som finns tillgängligt på Internet.

Migration-Development Nexus in the Malawian Health Sector: European Union Blue Card – circular migration for development?

The European Union has agreed on implementing the Policy Coherence for Development (PCD) principle in all policy sectors that are likely to have a direct impact on developing countries. This is in order to take account of and support the EU development cooperation objectives and the achievement of the internationally agreed Millennium Development Goals. The common EU migration policy and the newly introduced EU Blue Card directive present an example of the implementation of the principle in practice: the directive is not only designed to respond to the occurring EU labour demand by attracting highly skilled third-country professionals, but is also intended to contribute to the development objectives of the migrant-sending developing countries, primarily through the tool of circular migration and the consequent skills transfers. My objective in this study is to assess such twofold role of the EU Blue Card and to explore the idea that migration could be harnessed for the benefit of development in conformity with the notion that the two form a positive nexus. Seeing that the EU Blue Card fails to differentiate the most vulnerable countries and sectors from those that are in a better position to take advantage of the global migration flows, the developmental consequences of the directive must be accounted for even in the most severe settings. Accordingly, my intention is to question whether circular migration, as claimed, could address the problem of brain drain in the Malawian health sector, which has witnessed an excessive outflow of its professionals to the UK during the past decade. In order to assess the applicability, likelihood and relevance of circular migration and consequent skills transfers for development in the Malawian context, a field study of a total of 23 interviews with local health professionals was carried out in autumn 2010. The selected approach not only allows me to introduce a developing country perspective to the on-going discussion at the EU level, but also enables me to assess the development dimension of the EU Blue Card and the intended PCD principle through a local lens. Thus these interviews and local viewpoints are at the very heart of this study. Based on my findings from the field, the propensity of the EU Blue Card to result in circular migration and to address the persisting South-North migratory flows as well as the relevance of skills transfers can be called to question. This is as due to the bias in its twofold role the directive overlooks the importance of the sending country circumstances, which are known to determine any developmental outcomes of migration, and assumes that circular migration alone could bring about immediate benefits. Without initial emphasis on local conditions, however, positive outcomes for vulnerable countries such as Malawi are ever more distant. Indeed it seems as if the EU internal interests in migration policy forbid the fulfilment of the PCD principle and diminish the attempt to harness migration for development to bare rhetoric.

Rheological flow from a die and painting on a moving solid wall

Die swell is an important, phenomenon. in polymer processing, and is explained usually by rheological properties of the fluid. Because of the nonuniform of temperature distribution on the free surface of the liquid jet, the thermo capillary convection driven by surface tension gradient exists. The rheological fluid flowing out of a die and painting on a moving solid wall is studied by the numerical finite element method of a two-dimensional and unsteady model in the present paper, and both the rheological effect of a non-Newtonian fluid and the thermocapillary effect are considered. The results show that both,effects; will enlarge the cross-section of the fluid jet, and the rheological effect of non-Newtonian fluid dominates the process in general.

The effect of flexibility in working hours on fertility: A comparative analysis of selected european countries

The main aim of this paper is to measure the extent to which part-time work enhances fertility for married or cohabiting women of fertile age. The study covers eleven European countries. The data used are a pool sample of five waves of the European Community Household Panel. Given that we believe that the decisions concerning fertility and labor market status are taken jointly, we carry out a simultaneous estimation approach. Results suggest that policy makers wishing to implement adequate part-time schedules so as to enhance fertility should look at the part-time schedules available in Belgium, Ireland and The Netherlands, which enhance fertility for women who take advantage of this flexibility measure so as to reconcile family and work.

Phylogeography and non-invasive landscape genetics of the European pine marten ("martes martes" L. 1758) : insights into ancient and contemporary processes shaping genetic variation

283 p. : graf., map.

Fishing effort validation and substitution possibilities among components: the case study of the VIII division European anchovy fishery

Command and control regulation programs, particularly input constraints, typically fail to achieve stated objectives, because fishermen may substitute unregulated for regulated inputs. It is, thus, essential to have an understanding of the internal structure of production technology. A primal formulation is used to estimate a translog production function at the vessels level that includes fishing effort and fisherman’s skill. The flexibility of the selected functional permits the analysis of the substitution possibilities among inputs by estimating the elasticity of substitution with no prior constraints. Particular attention is paid to the empirical validation of fishing effort as an aggregate input, which implies either, the acceptation of the joint hypothesis that inputs making up effort are weakly separable from the inputs out of the subgroup or considering that effort is an intermediate input produced by a non-separable two stage technology. Cross sectional data from the Spanish purse seine fleet operating in the VIII Division European anchovy fishery provide evidence of limited input substitution possibilities among the inputs making up the empirically validated fishing effort translog micro-production function.