Modeling Optical Response of Thin Films: Choice of the Refractive Index Dispersion Law

Determination of the so-called optical constants (complex refractive index N, which is usually a function of the wavelength, and physical thickness D) of thin films from experimental data is a typical inverse non-linear problem. It is still a challenge to the scientific community because of the complexity of the problem and its basic and technological significance in optics. Usually, solutions are looked for models with 3-10 parameters. Best estimates of these parameters are obtained by minimization procedures. Herein, we discuss the choice of orthogonal polynomials for the dispersion law of the thin film refractive index. We show the advantage of their use, compared to the Selmeier, Lorentz or Cauchy models.

Deconstructing phonological tasks:the contribution of stimulus and response type to the prediction of early decoding skills

Abstract Phonological tasks are highly predictive of reading development but their complexity obscures the underlying mechanisms driving this association. There are three key components hypothesised to drive the relationship between phonological tasks and reading; (a) the linguistic nature of the stimuli, (b) the phonological complexity of the stimuli, and (c) the production of a verbal response. We isolated the contribution of the stimulus and response components separately through the creation of latent variables to represent specially designed tasks that were matched for procedure. These tasks were administered to 570 6 to 7-year-old children along with standardised tests of regular word and non-word reading. A structural equation model, where tasks were grouped according to stimulus, revealed that the linguistic nature and the phonological complexity of the stimulus predicted unique variance in decoding, over and above matched comparison tasks without these components. An alternative model, grouped according to response mode, showed that the production of a verbal response was a unique predictor of decoding beyond matched tasks without a verbal response. In summary, we found that multiple factors contributed to reading development, supporting multivariate models over those that prioritize single factors. More broadly, we demonstrate the value of combining matched task designs with latent variable modelling to deconstruct the components of complex tasks.

Prediction of traffic-induced vibration using 3D bridge model and consideration of influence of bridge structural properties on response

Peer reviewed

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted.

Seasonal dynamics and operational monitoring of hedgerow olive tree transpiration in response to applied water

We used 2012 sap flow measurements to assess the seasonal dynamics of daily plant transpiration (ETc) in a high-density olive orchard (Olea europaea L. cv. ‘Arbequina’) with a well-watered (HI) control treatment A to supply 100 % of the crop water needs, and a moderately (MI) watered treatment B that replaced 70% of crop needs. To assure that treatment A was well-watered, we compared field daily ETc values against ETc obtained with the Penman-Monteith (PM) combination equation incorporating the Orgaz et al. (2007) bulk daily canopy conductance (gc) model, validated for our non-limiting conditions. We then tested the hypothesis of indirectly monitoring olive ETc from readily available vegetation index (VI) and ground-based plant water stress indicator. In the process we used the FAO56 dual crop coefficient (Kc) approach. For the HI olive trees we defined Kcb as the basal transpiration coefficient, and we related Kcb to remotely sensed Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) through a Kcb-SAVI functional relationship. For the MI treatment, we defined the actual transpiration ETc as the product of Kcb and the stress reduction coefficient Ks obtained as the ratio of actual to crop ETc, and we correlated Ks with MI midday stem water potential (ψst) values through a Ks-ψ functional relationship. Operational monitoring of ETc was then implemented with the ETc = Kcb(SAVI)Ks(ψ)ETo relationship stemmed from the FAO56 approach and validated taking as inputs collected SAVI and ψst data reporting to year 2011. Low validation error (6%) and high goodness-of-fit of prediction were observed (R2 = 0.94, RSME = 0.2 mm day-1, P = 0.0015), allowing to consider that under field conditions it is possible to predict ETc values for our hedgerow olive orchards if SAVI and water potential (ψst) values are known.

Response and damage evaluation of reinforced concrete frames subjected to blast loading

Bomb attacks carried out by terrorists, targeting high occupancy buildings, have become increasingly common in recent times. Large numbers of casualties and property damage result from overpressure of the blast followed by failing of structural elements. Understanding the blast response of multi-storey buildings and evaluating their remaining life have therefore become important. Response and damage analysis of single structural components, such as columns or slabs, to explosive loads have been examined in the literature, but the studies on blast response and damage analysis of structural frames in multi-storey buildings is limited and this is necessary for assessing the vulnerability of them. This paper investigates the blast response and damage evaluation of reinforced concrete (RC) frames, designed for normal gravity loads, in order to evaluate their remaining life. Numerical modelling and analysis were carried out using the explicit finite element software, LS DYNA. The modelling and analysis takes into consideration reinforcement details together and material performance under higher strain rates. Damage indices for columns are calculated based on their residual and original capacities. Numerical results generated in the can be used to identify relationships between the blast load parameters and the column damage. Damage index curve will provide a simple means for assessing the damage to a typical multi-storey building RC frame under an external bomb circumstance.

The Alcohol Helplessness Scale and its prediction of depression among problem drinkers

Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained.

Prediction of outcome with group cognitive therapy for depression

Tested a social–cognitive model of depressive episodes and their treatment within a predictive study of treatment response. 42 clinically depressed volunteers (aged 22–60 yrs) were given self-efficacy (SE) questionnaires and other measures before and after treatment with cognitive therapy. Results support the idea that SE and skills regarding control of negative cognition mediates a sustained response to cognitive treatment for depression. Not only did mood-control variables correlate highly with concurrent changes in depression scores during treatment, but the posttreatment SE measure discriminated Ss who relapsed over the next 12 mo.

Journals as Social and Intellectual Fields: A Response

This review is in response to Thinking Collaboratively about Peer-Review Process in Journal Article Publication by Kevin K.Kumashiro. Several authors critique and analyse the reflections of Kevin K. Kumashiro on challenges to publishing ant-oppressive research in educational journals.

Protecting the protectors : legal liabilities from the use of Web 2.0 for Australian disaster response

The traditional model for information dissemination in disaster response is unidirectional from official channels to the public. However recent crises in the US, such as Hurricane Katrina and the Californian Bushfires show that civilians are now turning to Web 2.0 technologies as a means of sharing disaster related information. These technologies present enormous potential benefits to disaster response authorities that cannot be overlooked. In Australia, the Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission has recently recommended that Australian disaster response authorities utilize information technologies to improve the dissemination of disaster related, bushfire information. However, whilst the use of these technologies has many positive attributes, potential legal liabilities for disaster response authorities arise. This paper identifies some potential legal liabilities arising from the use of Web 2.0 technologies in disaster response situations thereby enhancing crisis related information sharing by highlighting legal concerns that need to be addressed.

Structural reliability prediction of a steel bridge element using Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Network (DOOBN)

Different from conventional methods for structural reliability evaluation, such as, first/second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) or Monte Carlo simulation based on corresponding limit state functions, a novel approach based on dynamic objective oriented Bayesian network (DOOBN) for prediction of structural reliability of a steel bridge element has been proposed in this paper. The DOOBN approach can effectively model the deterioration processes of a steel bridge element and predict their structural reliability over time. This approach is also able to achieve Bayesian updating with observed information from measurements, monitoring and visual inspection. Moreover, the computational capacity embedded in the approach can be used to facilitate integrated management and maintenance optimization in a bridge system. A steel bridge girder is used to validate the proposed approach. The predicted results are compared with those evaluated by FORM method.

A Bayesian model predicts the response of axons to molecular gradients

Axon guidance by molecular gradients plays a crucial role in wiring up the nervous system. However, the mechanisms axons use to detect gradients are largely unknown. We first develop a Bayesian “ideal observer” analysis of gradient detection by axons, based on the hypothesis that a principal constraint on gradient detection is intrinsic receptor binding noise. Second, from this model, we derive an equation predicting how the degree of response of an axon to a gradient should vary with gradient steepness and absolute concentration. Third, we confirm this prediction quantitatively by performing the first systematic experimental analysis of how axonal response varies with both these quantities. These experiments demonstrate a degree of sensitivity much higher than previously reported for any chemotacting system. Together, these results reveal both the quantitative constraints that must be satisfied for effective axonal guidance and the computational principles that may be used by the underlying signal transduction pathways, and allow predictions for the degree of response of axons to gradients in a wide variety of in vivo and in vitro settings.