Different likelihood ratio approaches to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons

Two likelihood ratio (LR) approaches are presented to evaluate the strength of evidence of MDMA tablet comparisons. The first one is based on a more 'traditional' comparison of MDMA tablets by using distance measures (e.g., Pearson correlation distance or a Euclidean distance). In this approach, LRs are calculated using the distribution of distances between tablets of the same-batch and that of different-batches. The second approach is based on methods used in some other fields of forensic comparison. Here LRs are calculated based on the distribution of values of MDMA tablet characteristics within a specific batch and from all batches. The data used in this paper must be seen as examples to illustrate both methods. In future research the methods can be applied to other and more complex data. In this paper, the methods and their results are discussed, considering their performance in evidence evaluation and several practical aspects. With respect to evidence in favor of the correct hypothesis, the second method proved to be better than the first one. It is shown that the LRs in same-batch comparisons are generally higher compared to the first method and the LRs in different-batch comparisons are generally lower. On the other hand, for operational purposes (where quick information is needed), the first method may be preferred, because it is less time consuming. With this method a model has to be estimated only once in a while, which means that only a few measurements have to be done, while with the second method more measurements are needed because each time a new model has to be estimated.

Testing a large-scale forestry scenario model by means of successive inventories on a forest property

Abstract

Issue review : city property tax for fiscal year 2009.

This issue review provides fiscal year 2009 city taxable value, tax rate and property tax revenue statistics, with comparisons to FY 2008 and to FY 2001. A discussion of the impact of the residential rollback on the tax base of cities and the growth in tax increment financing, or TIF, is also included.

Formation of virus-like clusters is an intrinsic property of the tumor necrosis factor family member BAFF (B cell activating factor).

The oligomeric state of BAFF (B cell activing factor), a tumor necrosis factor (TNF) family cytokine that plays a critical role in B cell development and survival, has been the subject of recent debate. Myc-tagged BAFF starting at residue Gln136 was previously reported to crystallize as trimers at pH 4.5, whereas a histidine-tagged construct of BAFF, starting at residue Ala134, formed a virus-like cluster containing 60 monomers when crystallized at pH 9.0. The formation of the BAFF 60-mer was pH dependent, requiring pH >or= 7.0. More recently, 60-mer formation was suggested to be artificially induced by the histidine tag, and it was proposed that BAFF, like all other TNF family members, is trimeric. We report here that a construct of BAFF with no amino-terminal tag (Ala134-BAFF) can form a 60-mer in solution. Using size exclusion chromatography and static light scattering to monitor trimer to 60-mer ratios in BAFF preparations, we find that 60-mer formation is pH-dependent and requires histidine 218 within the DE loop of BAFF. Biacore measurements established that the affinity of Ala134-BAFF for the BAFF receptor BAFFR/BR3 is similar to that of myc-Gln136-BAFF, which is exclusively trimeric in solution. However, Ala134-BAFF is more efficacious than myc-Gln136-BAFF in inducing B cell proliferation in vitro. We additionally show that BAFF that is processed and secreted by 293T cells transfected with full-length BAFF, or by a histiocytic lymphoma cell line (U937) that expresses BAFF endogenously, forms a pH-dependent 60-mer in solution. Our results indicate that the formation of the 60-mer in solution by the BAFF extracellular domain is an intrinsic property of the protein, and therefore that this more active form of BAFF may be physiologically relevant.

Maximum likelihood Linear Programming Data Fusion for Speaker Recognition

Biometric system performance can be improved by means of data fusion. Several kinds of information can be fused in order to obtain a more accurate classification (identification or verification) of an input sample. In this paper we present a method for computing the weights in a weighted sum fusion for score combinations, by means of a likelihood model. The maximum likelihood estimation is set as a linear programming problem. The scores are derived from a GMM classifier working on a different feature extractor. Our experimental results assesed the robustness of the system in front a changes on time (different sessions) and robustness in front a change of microphone. The improvements obtained were significantly better (error bars of two standard deviations) than a uniform weighted sum or a uniform weighted product or the best single classifier. The proposed method scales computationaly with the number of scores to be fussioned as the simplex method for linear programming.

Iowa Historic Property Study: Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge Carrying I-74 and U.S. 6 over Mississippi River between Bettendorf, Scott County, Iowa and Moline, Rock Island County, Illinois, 2012

The 1935 Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge is being documented at this time to fulfill the requirements of the Memorandum of Agreement regarding the removal of the Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge and the Iowana Farms Milk Company Building for the proposed improvements to Interstate 7 4 in Bettendorf, Iowa, and Moline, Illinois.1 The 1959 twin suspension bridge will be removed as well, but it was determined to be ineligible for the National Register of Historic Places. Discussion of the history of the 1959 twin span is included, however, in the current report as part of the overall history of the Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge. Fieldwork for the documentation occurred in November 2009 and October 2010 (Fig. 1). Limitations on photography included limited shoreline access on the Illinois side, making good views of the bridge from the south somewhat challenging. Also, photographs on the bridge deck were not possible because of interstate traffic and prohibitions on pedestrian traffic. Within the last few years, online primary sources have proliferated, along with historical materials regarding the Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge. Sources available online for this report included numerous historical photographs, as well as historical Davenport, Iowa, and U.S. newspapers that document the bridge planning and construction. Additional primary source material was found at the University of Iowa Libraries, the State Historical Society of Iowa in Iowa City, the Bettendorf Public Library, the Richardson-Sloane Special Collections Center at the Davenport Public Library, and the Iowa State University Special Collections in Ames.

Iowa Historic Property Study: Iowana Farms Milk Company, 1416 State Street, City of Bettendorf, Scott County, Iowa, 2012

The Iowana Farms Milk Company factory building was considered to retain sufficient integrity and possess sufficient significance to be considered eligible for the National Register of Historic Places under Criteria A and C for its historical and architectural significance in the Bettendorf community. The Iowana Farms Milk Company was an important early to mid-twentieth-century business in Bettendorf, and was among the few that was not owned or operated by the Bettendorf Company. It was a strong and thriving business for many years, and its products were well known in the Quad Cities region. The importance of this property becomes even more significant when one considers that most of the buildings once associated with the actual Bettendorf Company, which was undeniably the most important business and industry in town, are now gone. As a result, the Iowana Farms Milk Company factory building was a physical vestige of the once-thriving commercial industries that made Bettendorf into a city in the twentieth century. This property was further significant for its representation of the evolution of the dairy industry in the twentieth century from farm to factory production. It also reflected the changes to the industry based on scientific discoveries, mechanical innovations, and governmental regulations related to improved sanitation and the pure milk movement. The Iowana Farms Milk Company represented a model plant for the time, and the marketing strategies it employed followed the trends of the industry. The Iowana Farms Milk Company plant had to be removed to make room for a new I-74 bridge over the Mississippi River at Bettendorf. The construction of the new bridge also required removal of the historic Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge. The documentation reported herein and for that of the Iowa-Illinois Memorial Bridge fulfills the requirements of the Memorandum of Agreement regarding the removal of these historic properties.

Hardy’s inequalities for monotone functions on partly ordered measure spaces

We characterize the weighted Hardy inequalities for monotone functions in Rn +. In dimension n = 1, this recovers the standard theory of Bp weights. For n > 1, the result was previously only known for the case p = 1. In fact, our main theorem is proved in the more general setting of partly ordered measure spaces.

Predicting the physicochemical profile of diastereoisomeric histidine-containing dipeptides by property space analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at measuring the lipophilicity and ionization constants of diastereoisomeric dipeptides, interpreting them in terms of conformational behavior, and developing statistical models to predict them. METHODS: A series of 20 dipeptides of general structure NH(2) -L-X-(L or D)-His-OMe was designed and synthetized. Their experimental ionization constants (pK(1) , pK(2) and pK(3) ) and lipophilicity parameters (log P(N) and log D(7.4) ) were measured by potentiometry. Molecular modeling in three media (vacuum, water, and chloroform) was used to explore and sample their conformational space, and for each stored conformer to calculate their radius of gyration, virtual log P (preferably written as log P(MLP) , meaning obtained by the molecular lipophilicity potential (MLP) method) and polar surface area (PSA). Means and ranges were calculated for these properties, as was their sensitivity (i.e., the ratio between property range and number of rotatable bonds). RESULTS: Marked differences between diastereoisomers were seen in their experimental ionization constants and lipophilicity parameters. These differences are explained by molecular flexibility, configuration-dependent differences in intramolecular interactions, and accessibility of functional groups. Multiple linear equations correlated experimental lipophilicity parameters and ionization constants with PSA range and other calculated parameters. CONCLUSION: This study documents the differences in lipophilicity and ionization constants between diastereoisomeric dipeptides. Such configuration-dependent differences are shown to depend markedly on differences in conformational behavior and to be amenable to multiple linear regression. Chirality 24:566-576, 2012. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Health consultation : Contamination of sump within residential property, Carroll County, Iowa (2007)

The Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) has been involved in an investigation surrounding the appearance of an unknown oil within the sump in the basement of a residence in Carroll, Iowa. The IDNR has requested the Iowa Department of Public Health (IDPH) to prepare a health consultation regarding their investigation. The IDPH, in cooperation with the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), prepared this health consultation to review the current status of the IDNR investigation and to provide an evaluation of the public health implications of exposure to the unknown oil within the sump. The information in this health consultation was current at the time of writing. Data that emerges later could alter this document’s conclusions and recommendations.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Bayes linear spaces

Linear spaces consisting of σ-finite probability measures and infinite measures (improper priors and likelihood functions) are defined. The commutative group operation, called perturbation, is the updating given by Bayes theorem; the inverse operation is the Radon-Nikodym derivative. Bayes spaces of measures are sets of classes of proportional measures. In this framework, basic notions of mathematical statistics get a simple algebraic interpretation. For example, exponential families appear as affine subspaces with their sufficient statistics as a basis. Bayesian statistics, in particular some well-known properties of conjugated priors and likelihood functions, are revisited and slightly extended

On the inefficiency of the restricted maximum likelihood

The restricted maximum likelihood is preferred by many to the full maximumlikelihood for estimation with variance component and other randomcoefficientmodels, because the variance estimator is unbiased. It is shown that thisunbiasednessis accompanied in some balanced designs by an inflation of the meansquared error.An estimator of the cluster-level variance that is uniformly moreefficient than the fullmaximum likelihood is derived. Estimators of the variance ratio are alsostudied.