Is missing orographic gravity wave drag near 60°S the cause of the stratospheric zonal wind biases in chemistry–climate models?

Nearly all chemistry–climate models (CCMs) have a systematic bias of a delayed springtime breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric polar vortex, implying insufficient stratospheric wave drag. In this study the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and the CMAM Data Assimilation System (CMAM-DAS) are used to investigate the cause of this bias. Zonal wind analysis increments from CMAMDAS reveal systematic negative values in the stratosphere near 608S in winter and early spring. These are interpreted as indicating a bias in the model physics, namely, missing gravity wave drag (GWD). The negative analysis increments remain at a nearly constant height during winter and descend as the vortex weakens, much like orographic GWD. This region is also where current orographic GWD parameterizations have a gap in wave drag, which is suggested to be unrealistic because of missing effects in those parameterizations. These findings motivate a pair of free-runningCMAMsimulations to assess the impact of extra orographicGWDat 608S. The control simulation exhibits the cold-pole bias and delayed vortex breakdown seen in the CCMs. In the simulation with extra GWD, the cold-pole bias is significantly reduced and the vortex breaks down earlier. Changes in resolved wave drag in the stratosphere also occur in response to the extra GWD, which reduce stratospheric SH polar-cap temperature biases in late spring and early summer. Reducing the dynamical biases, however, results in degraded Antarctic column ozone. This suggests that CCMs that obtain realistic column ozone in the presence of an overly strong and persistent vortex may be doing so through compensating errors.

Motivational, emotional, and behavioral correlates of fear of missing out

Social media utilities have made it easier than ever to know about the range of online or offline social activities one could be engaging. On the upside, these social resources provide a multitude of opportunities for interaction; on the downside, they often broadcast more options than can be pursued, given practical restrictions and limited time. This dual nature of social media has driven popular interest in the concept of Fear of Missing Out – popularly referred to as FoMO. Defined as a pervasive apprehension that others might be having rewarding experiences from which one is absent, FoMO is characterized by the desire to stay continually connected with what others are doing. The present research presents three studies conducted to advance an empirically based understanding of the fear of missing out phenomenon. The first study collected a diverse international sample of participants in order to create a robust individual differences measure of FoMO, the Fear of Missing Out scale (FoMOs); this study is the first to operationalize the construct. Study 2 recruited a nationally representative cohort to investigate how demographic, motivational and well-being factors relate to FoMO. Study 3 examined the behavioral and emotional correlates of fear of missing out in a sample of young adults. Implications of the FoMOs measure and for the future study of FoMO are discussed.

The missing pillar: the creativity theory of knowledge spillover entrepreneurship

Knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship and the prevailing theory of economic growth treat opportunities as endogenous and generally focus on opportunity recognition by entrepreneurs. New knowledge created endogenously results in knowledge spillovers enabling inventors and entrepreneurs to commercialize it. This article discusses that knowledge spillover entrepreneurship depends not only on ordinary human capital, but more importantly also on creativity embodied in creative individuals and diverse urban environments that attract creative classes. This might result in self-selection of creative individuals into entrepreneurship or enable entrepreneurs to recognize creativity and commercialize it. This creativity theory of knowledge spillover entrepreneurship is tested utilizing data on European cities.

Missing steps in a staircase: a qualitative study of the perspectives of key stakeholders on the use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Despite the promising benefits of adaptive designs (ADs), their routine use, especially in confirmatory trials, is lagging behind the prominence given to them in the statistical literature. Much of the previous research to understand barriers and potential facilitators to the use of ADs has been driven from a pharmaceutical drug development perspective, with little focus on trials in the public sector. In this paper, we explore key stakeholders’ experiences, perceptions and views on barriers and facilitators to the use of ADs in publicly funded confirmatory trials. Methods Semi-structured, in-depth interviews of key stakeholders in clinical trials research (CTU directors, funding board and panel members, statisticians, regulators, chief investigators, data monitoring committee members and health economists) were conducted through telephone or face-to-face sessions, predominantly in the UK. We purposively selected participants sequentially to optimise maximum variation in views and experiences. We employed the framework approach to analyse the qualitative data. Results We interviewed 27 participants. We found some of the perceived barriers to be: lack of knowledge and experience coupled with paucity of case studies, lack of applied training, degree of reluctance to use ADs, lack of bridge funding and time to support design work, lack of statistical expertise, some anxiety about the impact of early trial stopping on researchers’ employment contracts, lack of understanding of acceptable scope of ADs and when ADs are appropriate, and statistical and practical complexities. Reluctance to use ADs seemed to be influenced by: therapeutic area, unfamiliarity, concerns about their robustness in decision-making and acceptability of findings to change practice, perceived complexities and proposed type of AD, among others. Conclusions There are still considerable multifaceted, individual and organisational obstacles to be addressed to improve uptake, and successful implementation of ADs when appropriate. Nevertheless, inferred positive change in attitudes and receptiveness towards the appropriate use of ADs by public funders are supportive and are a stepping stone for the future utilisation of ADs by researchers.

Missing out? Challenges to hearing the views of all children on the barriers and supports to learning

Children's views are essential to enabling schools to fulfil their duties under the Special Educational Needs and Disability Act 2001 and create inclusive learning environments. Arguably children are the best source of information about the ways in which schools support their learning and what barriers they encounter. Accessing this requires a deeper level of reflection than simply asking what children find difficult. It is also a challenge to ensure that the views of all children contribute including those who find communication difficult. Development work in five schools is drawn on to analyse the ways in which teachers used suggestions for three interview activities. The data reveals the strengths and limitations of different ways of supporting the communication process.

Missed, not missing: phylogenomic evidence for the existence of Avian FoxP3

The Forkhead box transcription factor FoxP3 is pivotal to the development and function of regulatory T cells (Tregs), which make a major contribution to peripheral tolerance. FoxP3 is believed to perform a regulatory role in all the vertebrate species in which it has been detected. The prevailing view is that FoxP3 is absent in birds and that avian Tregs rely on alternative developmental and suppressive pathways. Prompted by the automated annotation of foxp3 in the ground tit (Parus humilis) genome, we have questioned this assumption. Our analysis of all available avian genomes has revealed that the foxp3 locus is missing, incomplete or of poor quality in the relevant genomic assemblies for nearly all avian species. Nevertheless, in two species, the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) and the saker falcon (F. cherrug), there is compelling evidence for the existence of exons showing synteny with foxp3 in the ground tit. A broader phylogenomic analysis has shown that FoxP3 sequences from these three species are similar to crocodilian sequences, the closest living relatives of birds. In both birds and crocodilians, we have also identified a highly proline-enriched region at the N terminus of FoxP3, a region previously identified only in mammals.

A Bayesian Analysis in the Presence of Covariates for Multivariate Survival Data: An example of Application

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for survival multivariate data in the presence of a covariate vector and censored observations. Different ""frailties"" or latent variables are considered to capture the correlation among the survival times for the same individual. We assume Weibull or generalized Gamma distributions considering right censored lifetime data. We develop the Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Comparing diagnostic tests with missing data

When missing data occur in studies designed to compare the accuracy of diagnostic tests, a common, though naive, practice is to base the comparison of sensitivity, specificity, as well as of positive and negative predictive values on some subset of the data that fits into methods implemented in standard statistical packages. Such methods are usually valid only under the strong missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption and may generate biased and less precise estimates. We review some models that use the dependence structure of the completely observed cases to incorporate the information of the partially categorized observations into the analysis and show how they may be fitted via a two-stage hybrid process involving maximum likelihood in the first stage and weighted least squares in the second. We indicate how computational subroutines written in R may be used to fit the proposed models and illustrate the different analysis strategies with observational data collected to compare the accuracy of three distinct non-invasive diagnostic methods for endometriosis. The results indicate that even when the MCAR assumption is plausible, the naive partial analyses should be avoided.

Missing data mechanisms and their implications on the analysis of categorical data

We review some issues related to the implications of different missing data mechanisms on statistical inference for contingency tables and consider simulation studies to compare the results obtained under such models to those where the units with missing data are disregarded. We confirm that although, in general, analyses under the correct missing at random and missing completely at random models are more efficient even for small sample sizes, there are exceptions where they may not improve the results obtained by ignoring the partially classified data. We show that under the missing not at random (MNAR) model, estimates on the boundary of the parameter space as well as lack of identifiability of the parameters of saturated models may be associated with undesirable asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests; even in standard cases the bias of the estimators may be low only for very large samples. We also show that the probability of a boundary solution obtained under the correct MNAR model may be large even for large samples and that, consequently, we may not always conclude that a MNAR model is misspecified because the estimate is on the boundary of the parameter space.

Bias-corrected estimators for dispersion models with dispersion covariates

In this paper we discuss bias-corrected estimators for the regression and the dispersion parameters in an extended class of dispersion models (Jorgensen, 1997b). This class extends the regular dispersion models by letting the dispersion parameter vary throughout the observations, and contains the dispersion models as particular case. General formulae for the O(n(-1)) bias are obtained explicitly in dispersion models with dispersion covariates, which generalize previous results obtained by Botter and Cordeiro (1998), Cordeiro and McCullagh (1991), Cordeiro and Vasconcellos (1999), and Paula (1992). The practical use of the formulae is that we can derive closed-form expressions for the O(n(-1)) biases of the maximum likelihood estimators of the regression and dispersion parameters when the information matrix has a closed-form. Various expressions for the O(n(-1)) biases are given for special models. The formulae have advantages for numerical purposes because they require only a supplementary weighted linear regression. We also compare these bias-corrected estimators with two different estimators which are also bias-free to order O(n(-1)) that are based on bootstrap methods. These estimators are compared by simulation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

”Alltid saknad – aldrig glömd” : Om emotionella drivkrafter inom Missing People Sweden

”Forever missed – never forgotten”: Emotion and action in a swedish voluntary search and rescue organisation The article explores the phenomenon of voluntary policing, through a case study of the voluntary search and rescue group Missing People Sweden (MPS). The article focuses on how a collectively upheld emotionology guide members’ views on the problem MPS is engaging, how this problem should be engaged, and why people should join MPS in its activities. The material used was gathered in spring 2014; through eight semi-structured interviews, document studies and four participant observations of the organisation’s activites. The results indicate that MPS members relate their views to an emotionology consisting of two separate themes; one of equality and collectivism, and one of individualism and meritocracy. The article demonstrates that the Tönniesian terms Gemeinschaft and Gesellschaft can both be applied to describe the organisation’s social environment. It also demonstrates that the Tönniesian dichotomy is a theoretical concept that is suited to the analysis of voluntary policing groups.