Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Business Creation Processes in Australia : What Start-Up Attempts Get Up and Running, and Why? - A Preliminary Assessment

The Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE) is the largest study of new firm formation that has ever been undertaken in Australia. CAUSEE follows the development of several samples of new and emerging firms over time. In this report we focus on the drivers of outcomes – in terms of reaching an operational stage vs. terminating the effort – of 493 randomly selected nascent firms whose founders have been comprehensively interviewed on two occasions, 12 months apart. We investigate the outcome effects of three groups of variables: Characteristics of the Venture; Resources Used in the Start-Up Process and Characteristics of the Start-Up Process Itself.

One small difference after another : stories of grassroots leaders

Grassroots groups – autonomous, not-for-profit groups made up of volunteers – and grassroots initiatives play an invaluable, yet often invisible, role in our communities. The informal processes and collective efforts of grassroots associations, social movements, self-help groups and local action collectives are central to civil society and community building. Grassroots leaders are critical to such initiatives, yet little is known about their influences, motivations, successes and challenges. This study aims to address this dearth in the research literature by noting the experiences of a sample of grassroots community leaders to help gain a greater knowledge about community leadership in action. In-depth semi-structured interviews were held with nine grassroots leaders from a broad cross-section of sectors of interest. The criteria for selection were that these leaders were not in a formal non-profit organisation, were not paid for their work yet were leading grassroots groups or initiatives involved in active community building, campaigning or self-help. The paper reflects on findings in regard to the formative experiences that impacted upon the community leaders’ direction in life, their beliefs and ideas about what it means to be a leader, the strategies they use to lead and challenges they continue to face, and the role of learning and support in maintaining and developing their roles. Finally, the key themes relating to grassroots leadership and how these leaders enhance their own effectiveness and resilience are explored.

Growing up

‘Growing Up’ is the key concept as well as the ideology for modernism. For modernism, ‘Growing Up’ has been regarded as ‘good’, ‘advance’, ‘power’ and ‘positive’; while, postmodernists pay attention to its negatives that it brings about abuse of natural resources, war, suppression of human rights, environmental pollution, and institutionalisation. The artwork, Growing Up illustrates the positive and negative aspects of ‘Growing Up’ by using three images of a flower, a bee and a devil. The flower represents flourish of modernism, the bee does prosperity (spread) of modernism, and a devil image generated from the flower (modernism) is negative aspects of modernism. The message of the artwork is that modernism itself determines its own destiny from ‘Growing Up’ that may jeopardise the bee.

The roles and importance of formal and informal sources of business support in young firms : evidence from the UK’s 2008 Federation of Small Business Survey

Objectives This research explores the relationship between young firms, their growth orientation-intention and a range of relationships which can be seen to provide business support. Prior-work Research indicates that networks impact the firm’s ability to secure resources (Sirmon and Hitt 2003; Liao and Welsch. 2004; Hanlon and Saunders 2007). Networks have been evaluated in a number of ways ranging from simple counts to characteristics of their composition (Davidsson and Honig 2003), strength of relationships (Granovetter 1973) and network diversity (Carter et al 2003). By providing access to resources and knowledge (from start-up assistance and raising capital, (e.g. Smallbone et al, 2003), networks may assist in enabling continued persistence during those times where firms may experience resource constraints owing to firm growth (Baker and Nelson 2005). Approach The data used in this research was generated in the 2008 UK Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) survey. Over 1,000 of the firms responding were found to fall into the category of “young”, ((defined as firms under 4 years old). Firms were considered the unit of analysis with the entrepreneur being the chief spokesperson for the firm. Preliminary data analysis considered key demographic characteristics and industry classifications, comparing the FSB data with that of the UK government’s own (BERR) Small Business Surveys of 2007 and 2008, to establish some degree of representativeness of the respondents. The analysis then examined networks with varying potential ability to provide support for young firms, the networks measured in terms of number, diversity, characteristic and strength in its relationship to young firm growth orientation. The diversity of business-support-related relationships ranged from friends and family, through professional services, customers and suppliers, and government business services, to trade associations and informal business networks. The characteristics of these formal and informal sources of support for new businesses are examined across a range of business support-type activities for new firms. The number of relationships and types of business support are also explored. Finally, the strength of these relationships is examined by analysis of the source of business support, type of business support, and links to the growth orientation-intention of the firm, after controlling for a number of key variables related to firm and industry status and owner characteristics. Results Preliminary analysis of the data by means of univariate analysis showed that average number of sources of advice was around 2.5 (from a potential total of 6). In terms of the diversity of relationships, universities had by far the smallest percentage of firms receiving beneficial advice from them. Government business services were beneficially used by 40% of young firms, the other relationship types being around the 50-55% mark. In terms of characteristics of the advice, the average number of areas in which benefit was achieved was around 5.5 of a maximum of 15. Start-up advice has by far the highest percentage of firms obtaining beneficial advice, with increasing sales, improving contacts and improving confidence being the other categories at or around the 50% mark. Other market-focused areas where benefits were also received were in the areas of new markets, existing product improvements and new product improvements, where around 40% of the young responding firms obtained benefit. Regression techniques evaluating the strength of these relationships in terms of the links between business support (by source of support, type of support, and range of support) and firm growth orientation-intention focus highlighted a number of significant relationships, even after controlling for a range of other explanatory variables identified in the literature. Specifically, there was found to be a positive relationship between receiving business advice generally (regardless of type or source) and growth orientation. This relationship was seen to be stronger, however, when looking at the number of types of beneficial advice received, and stronger again for the number of sources of this advice. In terms of individual sources of advice, customers and suppliers had the strongest relationship with growth, with Government business services also found to be significant. Combining these two sources was also seen to increase the strength of the relationship between these two sources of advice and growth orientation. In considering areas of support, growth was most strongly positively related to advice that benefited the development of new products and services, and also business confidence, but was negatively related to advice linked to business recovery. Finally, amalgamating the 4 key types and sources of advice to examine the impact of combinations of these types and sources of advice also improved the strength of the relationship. Implications The findings will assist in the understanding of young firms in general and growth more specifically, particularly the role and importance of specific sources, types and combinations of business support used more extensively by new young growth-oriented firms. Value This research may assist in processes designed to allow entrepreneurs to make better decisions; educators and support organizations to develop better advice and assistance, and Governments design better conditions for the creation of new growth-oriented businesses.

Which way up? Reading and drawing maps of the blogosphere

Mapping the physical world, the arrangement of continents and oceans, cities and villages, mountains and deserts, while not without its own contentious aspects, can at least draw upon centuries of previous work in cartography and discovery. To map virtual spaces is another challenge altogether. Are cartographic conventions applicable to depictions of the blogosphere, or the internet in general? Is a more mathematical approach required to even start to make sense of the shape of the blogosphere, to understand the network created by and between blogs? With my research comparing information flows in the Australian and French political blogs, visualising the data obtained is important as it can demonstrate the spread of ideas and topics across blogs. However, how best to depict the flows, links, and the spaces between is still unclear. Is network theory and systems of hubs and nodes more relevant than mass communication theories to the research at hand, influencing the nature of any map produced? Is it even a good idea to try and apply boundaries like ‘Australian’ and ‘French’ to parts of a map that does not reflect international borders or the Mercator projection? While drawing upon some of my work-in-progress, this paper will also evaluate previous maps of the blogosphere and approaches to depicting networks of blogs. As such, the paper will provide a greater awareness of the tools available and the strengths and limitations of mapping methodologies, helping to shape the direction of my research in a field still very much under development.

Transforming Queensland VET : Challenges and Opportunities (Volume 1)

The volume is a collection of papers that address issues associated with change in the delivery of VET programs in Queensland, foreshadowed by the release of The Queensland Skill Plan in 2006. Issues that relate to the implementation of the Actions identified in the Queensland Skills Plan are the focus of the collection. In particular, the incorporation of Information Communication Technologies (ICTs) and e-learning approaches in the delivery of training packages is a key topic, how such change can be managed in the delivery of training programs, as well as broader professional development issues for VET practitioners. Change at an organisational level is the focus of two papers. Lyn Ambrose uses ideas from Diffusion of Innovations Theory to consider how the adoption eLearning in a TAFE community can be addressed. The paper by Susan Todhunter also discusses the organisational challenges in change initiatives in TAFE Institutes. Specific issues related to in the professional development of VET teachers are the focus of the papers by Mary Campbell, Sharon Altena, and Judy Gronold. Mary Campbell discusses the importance of building staff capabilities within the TAFE system and how this might be managed. Sharon Altena considers how professional development programs are currently delivered and how new approaches to professional development for TAFE teachers are needed to ensure changes can be sustained in teaching practice. The paper by Judy Gronold takes up a specific challenge for VET practitioners in the Queensland Skills Plan. She addresses issues related to embedding employability skills into training delivery in order to address industries’ need for flexible, multi-skilled productive workers. Mark Driver discusses the issues resulting from increased number of mature-aged learners in VET programs and how this change in the demographic profile of students presents challenges to the VET system. In the paper by David McKee, implications in the incorporation of ICTs into trade training are discussed and the need for effective change management strategies to ensure a smooth transition to new ways of delivering trade training. Finally, in the paper by David Roberts, the potential of Problem-Based Learning (PBL) approaches in VET training and the role of ICTs within such approaches are discussed. David uses horticulture training as an example to discuss the issues in implementing PBL effectively in VET programs. These papers were completed by the authors as a part of their postgraduate studies at QUT. The views reported are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Queensland Department of Education, Training and the Arts.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Apparatus for monitoring load bearing rehabilitation exercises of a transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated fixation : a proof-of-concept study

The purpose of this proof-of-concept study was to determine the relevance of direct measurements to monitor the load applied on the osseointegrated fixation of transfemoral amputees during static load bearing exercises. The objectives were (A) to introduce an apparatus using a three-dimensional load transducer, (B) to present a range of derived information relevant to clinicians, (C) to report on the outcomes of a pilot study and (D) to compare the measurements from the transducer with those from the current method using a weighing scale. One transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated implant was asked to apply 10 kg, 20 kg, 40 kg and 80 kg on the fixation, using self-monitoring with the weighing scale. The loading was directly measured with a portable kinetic system including a six-channel transducer, external interface circuitry and a laptop. As the load prescribed increased from 10 kg to 80 kg, the forces and moments applied on and around the antero-posterior axis increased by 4 fold anteriorly and 14 fold medially, respectively. The forces and moments applied on and around the medio-lateral axis increased by 9 fold laterally and 16 fold from anterior to posterior, respectively. The long axis of the fixation was overloaded and underloaded in 17 % and 83 % of the trials, respectively, by up to ±10 %. This proof-of-concept study presents an apparatus that can be used by clinicians facing the challenge of improving basic knowledge on osseointegration, for the design of equipment for load bearing exercises and for rehabilitation programs.

Waking up with friends : breakfast news, Sunrise and the "televisual sphere"

This paper examines the Australian breakfast news program Sunrise. By drawing on interviews with both viewers and producers, as well as selected textual analysis, it examines the show, how it is "used" as a news source, and explores its role within the audience’s morning routines. By viewing the show as a part of what Baym has termed the "Televisual Sphere", it will argue against the common discourse that the program has simply followed a populist style in pursuit of higher ratings. Because of its success in communicating and connecting with viewers, it may be more constructive to consider Sunrise a very effective form of journalism which has been at the forefront of the recent trend towards increased levels of viewer input in television journalism.

Nutrients build-up and wash-off processes in urban land uses

This thesis describes outcomes of a research study conducted to investigate the nutrient build-up and wash-off processes on urban impervious surfaces. The data needed for the study was generated through a series of field investigations and laboratory test procedures. The study sites were selected in urbanised catchments to represent typical characteristics of residential, industrial and commercial land uses. The build-up and wash-off samples were collected from road surfaces in the selected study sites. A specially designed vacuum collection system and a rainfall simulator were used for sample collection. According to the data analysis, the solids build-up on road surfaces was significantly finer with more than 80% of the particles below 150 ìm for all the land uses. Nutrients were mostly associated with the particle size range below 150 ìm in both build-up and wash-off samples irrespective of type of land use. Therefore, the finer fraction of solids was the most important for the nutrient build-up and particulate nutrient wash-off processes. Consequently, the design of stormwater quality mitigation measures should target particles less than 150 ìm for the removal of nutrients irrespective of type of land use. Total kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) was the most dominant form of nitrogen species in build-up on road surfaces. Phosphorus build-up on road surfaces was mainly in inorganic form and phosphate (PO4 3-) was the most dominant form. The nutrient wash-off process was found to be dependent on rainfall intensity and duration. Concentration of both total nitrogen and phosphorus was higher at the beginning of the rain event and decreased with the increase in rainfall duration. Consequently, in the design of stormwater quality mitigation strategies for nutrients removal, it is important to target the initial period of rain events. The variability of wash-off of nitrogen with rainfall intensity was significantly different to phosphorus wash-off. The concentration of nitrogen was higher in the wash-off for low intensity rain events compared to the wash-off for high intensity rain events. On the other hand, the concentration of phosphorus in the wash-off was high for high intensity rain events compared to low intensity rain events. Consequently, the nitrogen washoff can be defined as a source limiting process and phosphorus wash-off as a transport limiting process. This highlights the importance of taking into consideration the wash-off of low intensity rain events in the design of stormwater quality mitigation strategies targeting the nitrogen removal. All the nitrogen species in wash-off are primarily in dissolved form whereas phosphorus is in particulate form. The differences in the nitrogen and phosphorus wash-off processes is principally due to the degree of solubility, attachment to particulates, composition of total nitrogen and total phosphorus and the degree of adherence of the solids particles to the surface to which nutrients are attached. The particulate nitrogen available for wash-off is removed readily as these are mobilised as free solids particles on the surface. Phosphorus is washed-off mostly with the solids particles which are strongly adhered to the surface or as the fixed solids load. Investigation of the nitrogen wash-off process using bulk wash-off samples was in close agreement with the investigation of dissolved fraction of wash-off solids. This was primarily due to the predominant nature of dissolved nitrogen. However, the investigation of the processes which underpin phosphorus wash-off using bulk washoff samples could lead to loss of information. This is due to the composition of total phosphorus in wash-off solids and the inherent variability of the wash-off process for the different particle size ranges. This variability should preferably be taken into consideration as phosphorus wash-off is predominantly in particulate form. Therefore, care needs to be taken in the investigation of the phosphorus wash-off process using bulk wash-off samples to ensure that there is no loss of information and hence result in misleading outcomes. The investigation of different particle size ranges of wash-off solids is preferable in the interest of designing effective stormwater quality management strategies targeting phosphorus removal.

Up the junction? Exploiting knowledge-based development through supply chain and SME cluster interactions

Maximisation of Knowledge-Based Development (KBD) benefits requires effective dissemination and utilisation mechanisms to accompany the initial knowledge creation process. This work highlights the potential for interactions between Supply Chains (SCs) and Small and Medium sized Enterprise Clusters (SMECs), (including via ‘junction’ firms which are members of both networks), to facilitate such effective dissemination and utilisation of knowledge. In both these network types there are firms that readily utilise their relationships and ties for ongoing business success through innovation. The following chapter highlights the potential for such beneficial interactions between SCs and SMECs in key elements of KBD, particularly knowledge management, innovation and technology transfer. Because there has been little focus on the interactions between SCs and SMECs, particularly when firms simultaneously belong to both, this chapter examines the conduits through which information and knowledge can be transferred and utilised. It shows that each network type has its own distinct advantages in the types of information searched for and transferred amongst network member firms. Comparing and contrasting these advantages shows opportunities for both networks to leverage the knowledge sharing strengths of each other, through these ‘junctions’ to address their own weaknesses, allowing implications to be drawn concerning new ways of utilising relationships for mutual network gains.

Sustainability of a multimodal intervention to promote lifestyle factors associated with the prevention of cardiovascular disease in midlife Australian women : a 5-year follow-up

We evaluated sustainability of an intervention to reduce women’s cardiovascular risk factors, determined the influence of self-efficacy, and described women’s current health. We used a mixed method approach that utilized forced choice and open-ended questionnaire items about health status, habits, and self-efficacy. Sixty women, average age 61, returned questionnaires. Women in the original intervention group continued health behaviors intended to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) at a higher rate than the control group, supporting the feasibility of a targeted intervention built around women’s individual goals. The role of self-efficacy in behavior change is unclear. The original intervention group reported higher self-reported health.

Up the e-learning curve : ensuring quality online education within an Australian university

The paper describes the implementation of a project within Australian Catholic University designed to launch the Faculties into online education in a manner which ensured quality in all aspects of the teaching-learning experiences of academics and students. Key elements of the strategic approach adopted by the project leaders, including the involvement of a specialist commercial provider of web-based delivery systems as a partner in the project, mechanisms to support the initiative through the first stages, careful choice of the programs offered online, and staff development matched to the emerging needs of those involved in the teaching of courses, are described. Challenges encountered in the implementation process, and the factors which assisted in overcoming these problems are identified. The paper draws upon this experience to raise some important issues relevant to the successful introduction of online education as an integral component of the teaching repertoire of Faculties.