Preferential dust sources: a geomorphological classification designed and for use in global aerosol models

We present a simple theoretical land-surface classification that can be used to determine the location and temporal behavior of preferential sources of terrestrial dust emissions. The classification also provides information about the likely nature of the sediments, their erodibility and the likelihood that they will generate emissions under given conditions. The scheme is based on the dual notions of geomorphic type and connectivity between geomorphic units. We demonstrate that the scheme can be used to map potential modern-day dust sources in the Chihuahuan Desert, the Lake Eyre Basin and the Taklamakan. Through comparison with observed dust emissions, we show that the scheme provides a reasonable prediction of areas of emission in the Chihuahuan Desert and in the Lake Eyre Basin. The classification is also applied to point source data from the Western Sahara to enable comparison of the relative importance of different land surfaces for dust emissions. We indicate how the scheme could be used to provide an improved characterization of preferential dust sources in global dust-cycle models.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high latitudes heat budget

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere(-vegetation) simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). Here we quantify the latitudinal shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical regions during boreal summer and the change in precipitation in the northern part of the ITCZ. For both periods the shift is more pronounced over the continents and East Asia. The maritime continent is the region where the largest spread is found between models. We also clearly establish that the larger the increase in the meridional temperature gradient in the tropical Atlantic during summer at the MH, the larger the change in precipitation over West Africa. The vegetation feedback is however not as large as found in previous studies, probably due to model differences in the control simulation. Finally, we show that the feedback from snow and sea-ice at mid and high latitudes contributes for half of the cooling in the Northern Hemisphere for the LGM, with the remaining being achieved by the reduced CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere. For the MH the snow and albedo feedbacks strengthen the spring cooling and enhance the boreal summer warming, whereas water vapour reinforces the late summer warming. These feedbacks are modest in the Southern Hemisphere. For the LGM most of the surface cooling is due to CO2 and water vapour.

Intercomparison of general circulation models for hot extrasolar planets

We compare five general circulation models (GCMs) which have been recently used to study hot extrasolar planet atmospheres (BOB, CAM, IGCM, MITgcm, and PEQMOD), under three test cases useful for assessing model convergence and accuracy. Such a broad, detailed intercomparison has not been performed thus far for extrasolar planets study. The models considered all solve the traditional primitive equations, but employ di↵erent numerical algorithms or grids (e.g., pseudospectral and finite volume, with the latter separately in longitude-latitude and ‘cubed-sphere’ grids). The test cases are chosen to cleanly address specific aspects of the behaviors typically reported in hot extrasolar planet simulations: 1) steady-state, 2) nonlinearly evolving baroclinic wave, and 3) response to fast timescale thermal relaxation. When initialized with a steady jet, all models maintain the steadiness, as they should—except MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid. A very good agreement is obtained for a baroclinic wave evolving from an initial instability in pseudospectral models (only). However, exact numerical convergence is still not achieved across the pseudospectral models: amplitudes and phases are observably di↵erent. When subject to a typical ‘hot-Jupiter’-like forcing, all five models show quantitatively di↵erent behavior—although qualitatively similar, time-variable, quadrupole-dominated flows are produced. Hence, as have been advocated in several past studies, specific quantitative predictions (such as the location of large vortices and hot regions) by GCMs should be viewed with caution. Overall, in the tests considered here, pseudospectral models in pressure coordinate (PEBOB and PEQMOD) perform the best and MITgcm in cubed-sphere grid performs the worst.

Simultaneous mobile sink allocation in home environments with applications in mobile consumer robotics

This paper presents a novel mobile sink area allocation scheme for consumer based mobile robotic devices with a proven application to robotic vacuum cleaners. In the home or office environment, rooms are physically separated by walls and an automated robotic cleaner cannot make a decision about which room to move to and perform the cleaning task. Likewise, state of the art cleaning robots do not move to other rooms without direct human interference. In a smart home monitoring system, sensor nodes may be deployed to monitor each separate room. In this work, a quad tree based data gathering scheme is proposed whereby the mobile sink physically moves through every room and logically links all separated sub-networks together. The proposed scheme sequentially collects data from the monitoring environment and transmits the information back to a base station. According to the sensor nodes information, the base station can command a cleaning robot to move to a specific location in the home environment. The quad tree based data gathering scheme minimizes the data gathering tour length and time through the efficient allocation of data gathering areas. A calculated shortest path data gathering tour can efficiently be allocated to the robotic cleaner to complete the cleaning task within a minimum time period. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme can effectively allocate and control the cleaning area to the robot vacuum cleaner without any direct interference from the consumer. The performance of the proposed scheme is then validated with a set of practical sequential data gathering tours in a typical office/home environment.

ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

We analyse the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) to simulate the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble displays an encouraging 30 % reduction of the pervasive cold bias in the western Pacific, but no quantum leap in ENSO performance compared to CMIP3. CMIP3 and CMIP5 can thus be considered as one large ensemble (CMIP3 + CMIP5) for multi-model ENSO analysis. The too large diversity in CMIP3 ENSO amplitude is however reduced by a factor of two in CMIP5 and the ENSO life cycle (location of surface temperature anomalies, seasonal phase locking) is modestly improved. Other fundamental ENSO characteristics such as central Pacific precipitation anomalies however remain poorly represented. The sea surface temperature (SST)-latent heat flux feedback is slightly improved in the CMIP5 ensemble but the wind-SST feedback is still underestimated by 20–50 % and the shortwave-SST feedbacks remain underestimated by a factor of two. The improvement in ENSO amplitudes might therefore result from error compensations. The ability of CMIP models to simulate the SST-shortwave feedback, a major source of erroneous ENSO in CGCMs, is further detailed. In observations, this feedback is strongly nonlinear because the real atmosphere switches from subsident (positive feedback) to convective (negative feedback) regimes under the effect of seasonal and interannual variations. Only one-third of CMIP3 + CMIP5 models reproduce this regime shift, with the other models remaining locked in one of the two regimes. The modelled shortwave feedback nonlinearity increases with ENSO amplitude and the amplitude of this feedback in the spring strongly relates with the models ability to simulate ENSO phase locking. In a final stage, a subset of metrics is proposed in order to synthesize the ability of each CMIP3 and CMIP5 models to simulate ENSO main characteristics and key atmospheric feedbacks.

Evaluation of simulated sea-ice concentrations from sea-ice/ocean models using satellite data and polynya classification methods

Sea-ice concentrations in the Laptev Sea simulated by the coupled North Atlantic-Arctic Ocean-Sea-Ice Model and Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model are evaluated using sea-ice concentrations from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System satellite data and a polynya classification method for winter 2007/08. While developed to simulate largescale sea-ice conditions, both models are analysed here in terms of polynya simulation. The main modification of both models in this study is the implementation of a landfast-ice mask. Simulated sea-ice fields from different model runs are compared with emphasis placed on the impact of this prescribed landfast-ice mask. We demonstrate that sea-ice models are not able to simulate flaw polynyas realistically when used without fast-ice description. Our investigations indicate that without landfast ice and with coarse horizontal resolution the models overestimate the fraction of open water in the polynya. This is not because a realistic polynya appears but due to a larger-scale reduction of ice concentrations and smoothed ice-concentration fields. After implementation of a landfast-ice mask, the polynya location is realistically simulated but the total open-water area is still overestimated in most cases. The study shows that the fast-ice parameterization is essential for model improvements. However, further improvements are necessary in order to progress from the simulation of large-scale features in the Arctic towards a more detailed simulation of smaller-scaled features (here polynyas) in an Arctic shelf sea.

The impact of location and type on the performance of Low-Voltage network connected Battery Energy Storage Systems

This paper assesses the impact of the location and configuration of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) on Low-Voltage (LV) feeders. BESS are now being deployed on LV networks by Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) as an alternative to conventional reinforcement (e.g. upgrading cables and transformers) in response to increased electricity demand from new technologies such as electric vehicles. By storing energy during periods of low demand and then releasing that energy at times of high demand, the peak demand of a given LV substation on the grid can be reduced therefore mitigating or at least delaying the need for replacement and upgrade. However, existing research into this application of BESS tends to evaluate the aggregated impact of such systems at the substation level and does not systematically consider the impact of the location and configuration of BESS on the voltage profiles, losses and utilisation within a given feeder. In this paper, four configurations of BESS are considered: single-phase, unlinked three-phase, linked three-phase without storage for phase-balancing only, and linked three-phase with storage. These four configurations are then assessed based on models of two real LV networks. In each case, the impact of the BESS is systematically evaluated at every node in the LV network using Matlab linked with OpenDSS. The location and configuration of a BESS is shown to be critical when seeking the best overall network impact or when considering specific impacts on voltage, losses, or utilisation separately. Furthermore, the paper also demonstrates that phase-balancing without energy storage can provide much of the gains on unbalanced networks compared to systems with energy storage.

A hands-on approach for fitting long-term survival models under the GAMLSS framework

In many data sets from clinical studies there are patients insusceptible to the occurrence of the event of interest. Survival models which ignore this fact are generally inadequate. The main goal of this paper is to describe an application of the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework to the fitting of long-term survival models. in this work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. In this way, some well known models found in the literature are characterized as particular cases of our proposal. The model is conveniently parameterized in terms of the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of the gamlss package in R as a powerful tool for inference in long-term survival models. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Power series generalized nonlinear models

We introduce in this paper a new class of discrete generalized nonlinear models to extend the binomial, Poisson and negative binomial models to cope with count data. This class of models includes some important models such as log-nonlinear models, logit, probit and negative binomial nonlinear models, generalized Poisson and generalized negative binomial regression models, among other models, which enables the fitting of a wide range of models to count data. We derive an iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood and discuss inference on the parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated with an application to a real data set. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Log-Burr XII regression models with censored data

In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal or log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the Burr XII distribution is proposed for modeling data with a unimodal failure rate function as an alternative to the log-logistic regression model. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis, a Bayesian analysis and a jackknife estimator for the parameters of the proposed model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the log-logistic and log-Burr XII regression models. Besides, we use sensitivity analysis to detect influential or outlying observations, and residual analysis is used to check the assumptions in the model. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-Buff XII regression models. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Reduction of Models in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters

In many statistical inference problems, there is interest in estimation of only some elements of the parameter vector that defines the adopted model. In general, such elements are associated to measures of location and the additional terms, known as nuisance parameters, to control the dispersion and asymmetry of the underlying distributions. To estimate all the parameters of the model and to draw inferences only on the parameters of interest. Depending on the adopted model, this procedure can be both algebraically is common and computationally very costly and thus it is convenient to reduce it, so that it depends only on the parameters of interest. This article reviews estimation methods in the presence of nuisance parameters and consider some applications in models recently discussed in the literature.

Trade or investment? location decisions under regional integration

This paper studies the production and trade patterns that may arise between two different countries if plant location is introduced as a first step in the producers' decision making. A three-stage game is used: the first deals with location and the next two with capacity and final sales decisions. Demand and cost structures differ by country, and the latter contain specific elements related to the foreign operation. The structure of possible Nash-equilibria is examined and an analysis of the changes in the solution, if the countries engage in an integration process, is made. As in previous models, though global welfare gains may not be very high, single country ones may be considerable, due to changes in the location of the plants. However, even if full integration takes place, global Marshallian welfare may decrease. Conditions which determine a tendency towards multinationalisation are obtained. Assuming a move toward integration, conditions are also provided to characterize when exporting will be preferred to local production. The fact that producers may retain a certain discriminating power, notwithstanding the elimination of barriers to arbitrage, creates a tendency to locate production in the country where prices are higher. This explains why welfare gains may not be obvious. An empirical illustration, with real data from two MERCOSUL countries (Brazil and Argentina) illustrates the possible outcomes.

Allocation of authority in franchise chains

This article investigates the level of delegation in franchise chains, distinguishing the two most relevant franchising models: Business Format Franchising and Learning Network Franchising. The two models basically differ on the level of real authority (effective control over decisions) exercised by the franchisors. Differences in business features, such as the required standardization, monitoring costs and consumer sensitivity to variations in product attributes (consumer measurement costs), explain the adoption of the different models of franchising. These variables affect the trade-off between the risk of brand name loss and the gains in knowledge sharing and learning within the network. The higher the need for standardization, the higher is the risk of brand name loss, and, consequently, the more likely the franchisor will adopt an organizational design that confers more control over franchisees’ decisions, such as business format franchising. This paper presents two case studies with Brazilian food franchise chains that illustrate the main argument and suggest additional propositions. Moreover, an empirical analysis of 223 franchise chains provides additional support to the hypothesis of a negative the effect of required standardization on the level of delegation.

Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in Brazil

This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.

Centralized allocation in multiple markets

We study the problem of centralized allocation of indivisible objects in multiple markets. We show that the set of allocation rules that are group strategy-proof and Pareto-efficient are sequential dictatorships. Therefore, the solution of the joint al-location in multiple markets is significantly narrower than in the single-market case. Our result also applies to dynamic allocation problems. Finally, we provide conditions under which the solution of the single-market allocation coincides with the multiple-market case, and we apply this result to the study of the school choice problem with sibling priorities.