859 resultados para Holt-Winters
Resumo:
Profit maximization in fishery protects cod of western Baltic Sea against overfishing – Only a theoretical approach? The frame for the management of fish stocks politically given contains – apart from ecological and social goals – also an economic goal, which is considered here in particular. From the point of view of fishery enterprises the main management goal for the exploitation of fish stocks is the maximization of profit. There are models for the yield optimization since long time. They are mainly used so far to optimize fishing mortality. Here the Beverton and Holt yield model was used. Apart from the optimization of fishing effort the model was used to optimize age of first capture and thus mesh opening. Starting point of the considerations is a given age group of a fish stock. If this age group is completely fished the yield obtained from this age group is maximized. The investigations show that the term overfishing is not exclusively linked as frequently assumed with a too large fishing mortality, but likewise with a mismatch of the mesh opening. For the calculated example Baltic cod data are used. At present the cod is caught far from reaching its mass optimum. Therefore, the profit of fishery enterprises can in the long term be considerably increased by the optimization of the mesh opening. During the conversion from the state of the art to fishing with optimised mesh sizes, however, a loss of profit has to be expected. The title of the paper sounds provocative. However, the stock of the Baltic Sea cod is better protected by a long-term maximum-profit oriented exploitation than by the precautionary approach applied now.
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This profile covers life history and environmental requirements of both alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis), since their distribution is overlapping and their morphology, ecological role, and environmental requirements are similar. The alewife is an anadromous species found in riverine, estuarine, and Atlantic coastal habitats, depending on life cycle stage, from Newfoundland (Winters et al. 1973) to Soutn Carolina (Berry 1964). Landlocked populations are i n the Great Lakes, Finger Lakes, and many other freshwater lakes (Bigelow and Sch roeder 1953; Scott and Crossman 1973). The blueback herring is an anadromous species found in riverine, estuarine, and Atlantic coastal habitats, depending on life stage cycle, from Nova Scotia to the St. Johns River, Florida (Hildebrand 1963)
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The sandy and muddy bottom of tbe German Waddensea offers a great diversity of secondary substrates to mussel larvae ready to settle. But every substrate with the exception of dead shell material may result in very small mussel colonies only. Large mussel beds of a size up to many hectares depend on aggregations of molluscan shells covering comparably areas of ground. Such shell aggregations are created by extremely cold winters and during years with extended stormy periods.
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Due to the greenhouse effect,a long term warming of the atmosphere is expected. For most people the last relative mild winters and the previous two hot summers are clear signals for such a climatic change. Changes in species compositions and the sudden arrival of southern species in the North Sea are explained as consequences of the greenhouse effect. Comparing the situation in the last decades an attempt is made in this article to show the natural variability in the occurrence and to give an answer to the above question.
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Die Auswirkungen des milden Winters 1988/89 auf die chemischen und biologischen Prozesse in der Nordsee werden von Fachleuten, aber auch von Politikern und der Presse lebhaft diskutiert. Schon im März wurden Befürchtungen geäußert, eine ähnliche kräftige und eventuell für andere marine Lebewesen schädigende Planktonblüte wie im Vorjahr stünde bevor. Dazu kam es jedoch nicht. Für das Vorjahresereignis wird diskutiert, ob als Grund ein Zusammenwirken von anomaler Zirkulation, kräftiger Frühjahrserwärmung, erhöhtem Festlandabfluß und damit verbundener kräftiger Nährstoffzufuhr in Frage kommt. Eine mögliche Erklärung für die diesjährige "normale" Planktonblüte wäre: Es lag zwar durchaus wieder eine ausgeprägte Zirkulationsanomalie in der Nordsee vor, jedoch fehlte die übermäßige "Düngung" durch Festlandabfluß, da es im vergangenen Frühjahrzu wenig Niederschläge gegeben hatte. Von einer "ganz normalen" Planktonblüte kann man in diesem Jahr allerdings auch nicht sprechen. Das erhöhte winterliche Temperaturniveau ließ einige Planktonarten sich bereits im Februar, also sehr früh, kräftig vermehren.
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The economic, environmental and social benefits of more sensitive land use practices that protect or restore the natural functions of river catchments have been widely discussed. Changing land use has implications for a wide range of other biological communities. Some studies have already been undertaken on the benefits of sensitive farming at the catchment scale in England and Wales. However, there is a gap in these studies at the local scale, and particularly for upland farms from which headwaters arise. This article documents a case study relating to a successful partnership in Cumbria, UK, set within the wider context of catchment management. Whilst the case study is not highly detailed, and some costs have been described in outline only to protect confidentiality and commercial sensitivity, it provides some generic lessons and may therefore be useful in informing more sustainable policy-making. High Hullockhowe Farm near Haweswater, which was used a the case study highlighting changes in farm practise, costs and benefits, water resources and biodiversity. The authors relate the case study to wider policy implications.
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O conhecimento sobre a fauna de anfíbios em áreas de altitude (> 1000 m) da Mata Atlântica do sudeste do Brasil é ainda insuficiente. O Parque Estadual dos Três Picos (PETP), no estado do Rio de Janeiro, constitui um dos maiores remanescentes de Mata Atlântica do estado inserido em uma Unidade de Conservação. Os limites do PETP abrangem um amplo gradiente altitudinal, alcançando mais de 2000 m de elevação e protegem áreas de cinco municípios do estado do Rio de Janeiro. Neste estudo, eu apresento dados de três anos de amostragem e pesquisa (2008-2010) sobre a composição e a abundância de espécies de anfíbios em área de altitude localizada entre 1100 e 1400 m no PETP, distrito de Theodoro de Oliveira, município de Nova Friburgo, estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. O esforço amostral total foi de 360 horas de buscas ativas, padronizado em 180 horas de procura em cada uma das estações do ano (úmida e seca). Foram registradas 32 espécies de anuros durante o estudo, das quais 18 representaram novos registros para o Parque e três novas espécies ainda não conhecidas da Ciência foram descobertas (Holoaden pholeter, recentemente descrita, foi uma delas). As espécies mais abundantes foram os anuros de desenvolvimento direto Ischnocnema parva e I. erythromera. Nove das 32 espécies encontradas são consideradas endêmicas do estado do Rio de Janeiro: Brachycephalus sp., B. didactylus, B. garbeanus, Ischnocnema cf. holti, I. erythromera, Bokermannohyla carvalhoi, Scinax albicans, H. pholeter e Hylodes charadranaetes. Houve diferença em alguns parâmetros da comunidade entre as estações e entre as faixas de altitude amostradas, com uma maior riqueza e abundância de anuros na estação úmida do que na seca, e mudança na composição de espécies entre as estações. Apesar de nenhuma das espécies registradas durante o estudo constar na lista de espécies ameaçadas, H. pholeter pode ser um candidato à inclusão na categoria vulnerável da Lista das Espécies Ameaçadas de Extinção da IUCN, devido à sua distribuição geográfica conhecida ser restrita apenas à localidade tipo (Theodoro de Oliveira) e à sua densidade populacional ser aparentemente baixa. . A alta diversidade de anfíbios, com espécies endêmicas ao estado, e a ocorrência de espécies raras atestam a relevância biológica das áreas estudadas no PETP.
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In relation to the hydroclimate prevailing off Congo (B) and Côte d'Ivoire, synchronic variations are described in abundance and distribution of Pseudotolithus senegalensis V., economically the most important species in the West African trawl fishery. Although this fish prefers the warm surface layer, it is relatively indifferent to hydrological conditions, since it may also occur in the thermocline down to the higher levels of 'Central South Atlantic Water'. The oxygen concentration appears to have an important effect upon their distribution, especially the low concentrations occurring with the upwelling. The main biological functions, such as spawning and recruitment times, condition factor, diet and ring appearance on otoliths, also follow cycles, which are parallel with the hydroclimate one. Therefore, the ring-shaped structures revealed by burning previously ground otoliths could be easily interpreted. Thus, an accurate method for ageing tropical fish is now available. From the age determinations for the Congolese stock, it appears that growth is fast and total mortality rate high. An influence of fishing effort, which increased 3 times during the exploited phase of sampled specimens, appears both in growth and in total mortality. From there an estimate for the fishing mortality could be given. The estimates of dynamic parameters for the Congolese stock are then used in the Beverton-Holt model. A valuable increase of the yield could be expected, if mesh size is widened and effort restricted.
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Ichthyoplankton surveys were conducted in shelf and slope waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico during the months of May–September in 2005 and 2006 to investigate the potential role of this region as spawning and nursery habitat of sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus). During the two-year study, 2426 sailfish larvae were collected, ranging in size from 2.0 to 24.3 mm standard length. Mean density for all neuston net collections (n=288) combined was 1.5 sailfish per 1000 m2, and maximum density was observed within frontal features created by hydrodynamic convergence (2.3 sailfish per 1000 m2). Sagittal otoliths were extracted from 1330 larvae, and otolith microstructure analysis indicated that the sailfish ranged in age from 4 to 24 days after hatching (mean=10.5 d, standard deviation [SD]=3.2 d). Instantaneous growth coefficients (g) among survey periods (n=5) ranged from 0.113 to 0.127, and growth peaked during July 2005 collections when density within frontal features was highest. Daily instantaneous mortality rates (Z) ranged from 0.228 to 0.381, and Z was indexed to instantaneous weight-specific growth (G) to assess stage-specific production potential of larval cohorts. Ratios of G to Z were greater than 1.0 for all but one cohort examined, indicating that cohorts were gaining biomass during the majority of months investigated. Stage-specific production potential, in combination with catch rates and densities of larvae, indicates that the Gulf of Mexico likely represents important spawning and nursery habitat for sailfish.
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The increase in the abundance of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) in Texas bays and estuaries over the past 30 years is correlated to increased wintertime surface water temperatures. Trends in the relative abundance of gray snapper are evaluated by using monthly fishery-independent monitoring data from each of the seven major estuaries along the Texas coast from 1978 through 2006. Environmental conditions during this period demonstrated increasing annual sea surface temperatures, although this increase was not seasonally uniform. The largest proportion of temperature increases was attributed to higher winter temperature minimums since 1993. Positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, resulting in wetter, warmer winters in the eastern United States have occurred nearly uninterrupted since the late 1970s, and unprecedented positive index values occurred between 1989 and 1995. Increases in water temperature in Texas estuaries, beginning in the early 1990s, are postulated to provide both favorable over-wintering conditions for the newly settled juveniles and increased recruitment success. In the absence of cold winters, this species has established semipermanent estuarine populations across the entire Texas coast. A shift to negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation will likely result in returns to colder winter temperature minimums that could reverse any recent population gains.
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Some results of a line of research explored by the author in recent years, and concerning the small-scale fisheries of Mexico are discussed. Clarity of goals for fisheries management is stressed as a departure point before taking any step towards model building. Age-structured simulation models require input data and parameters such as growth rates, natural mortality, age at first capture and maturity, longevity, the longest possible catch records series, and estimates of numbers caught per age group. The link between each cohort and the following can then be established by means of the Ricker stock recruitment or the Beverton-Holt models. Simulation experiments can then be carried out by changing fishing mortality. Whenever data on profits and costs and catch are available, these can also be analyzed. The use of simulation models is examined with emphasis on the benefits derived from their use for fisheries management.
Resumo:
Vetter (1988) noted that her review of the estimation of the instantaneous natural mortality rate (M) was initiated by a discussion among colleagues that identified M as the single most impor ta nt but least well-estimated parameter in fishery models. A lthough much has been accomplished in the inter vening years, M remains one of the most difficult parameters to estimate in fishery stock assessments. A number of novel approaches using tagging and telemetry data provide promise for making reliable direct estimates of M for a given stock (Hearn et al., 1998 ; Frusher and Hoenig, 2001; Hightower et al., 2001; Latour et al., 2003; Pollock et al., 2004). However, such methods are often impracticable and fishery scientists must approximate M by using estimates made for other stocks of the same or similar species or by predicting M from features of the species’ life history (Beverton and Holt, 1959; Beverton, 1963; Alverson and Carney, 1975; Pauly, 1980; Hoenig, 1983; Peterson and Wroblewski, 1984; Roff, 1984; Gunderson and Dygert, 1988; Chen and Watanabe, 1989; Charnov, 1993; Jensen, 1996; Lorenzen, 1996).
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Catch and mesh selectivity of wire-meshed fish traps were tested for eleven different mesh sizes ranging from 13 X 13 mm (0.5 x 0.5") to 76 x 152 mm (3 X 6"). A total of 1,810 fish (757 kg) representing 85 species and 28 families were captured during 330 trap hauls off southeastern Florida from December 1986 to July 1988. Mesh size significantly affected catches. The 1.5" hexagonal mesh caught the most fish by number, weight, and value. Catches tended to decline as meshes got smaller or larger. Individual fish size increased with larger meshes. Laboratory mesh retention experiments showed relationships between mesh shape and size and individual retention for snapper (Lutjanidae), grouper (Serranidae), jack (Carangidae), porgy (Sparidae), and surgeonfish (Acanthuridae). These relationships may be used to predict the effect of mesh sizes on catch rates. Because mesh size and shape greatly influenced catchability, regulating mesh size may provide a useful basis for managing the commercial trap fishery.
Resumo:
No presente estudo monitoramos uma população de Diplodon ellipticus Spix in Wagner, 1827 da lagoa dos Caiçaras, Piraí, Rio de Janeiro, e avaliamos alguns aspectos conquiliomorfológicos da larva e do adulto, a relação peso-comprimento, os padrões populacionais tais como crescimento, mortalidade e expectativa de vida, e o ciclo larval. Amostragens mensais foram realizadas de novembro/2012 a novembro/2013 em três pontos da lagoa. Em cada ponto, definimos uma area de 15 m2, que foi subdividida em 15 quadrados de 1m2 cada. Os bivalves foram procurados por três coletores, usando mãos e pés, totalizando 45 minutos de coleta/área. Posteriormente, foram medidos com um paquímetro em relação ao comprimento total, marcados e devolvidos a lagoa. Quinze bivalves foram coletados e analisados em laboratório durante dois anos. Os fatores abióticos (condutividade, temperatura da água, temperatura do ambiente, umidade, pH e oxigênio dissolvido) foram mensurados e amostragens do sedimento e da água foram realizados em cada ponto. Os indivíduos foram agrupados em classes de comprimento com intervalo de 2,0 mm para análise da estrutura de comprimento da população. Os parâmetros de curva de crescimento foram estimados pela rotina ELEFAN (distribuição de frequência) e pelo método de Gulland-Holt (marcação e recaptura), ambos no programa FISAT. A mortalidade foi calculada pelo método da curva de captura convertida em comprimento e a expectativa de vida foi calculada pela equação invertida de von Bertalanffy. Ao todo, 3474 bivalves foram marcados e 1849 recapturados, alguns deles mais de uma vez. O menor bivalve recapturado mediu 23,58 mm e foi recapturado 127 dias depois com 25,50 mm e o maior bivalve recapturado mediu 62,14 mm e foi recapturado 31 dias depois com 62,20 mm. Pelo método indireto analizamos 6922 bivalves com comprimentos variando de 11,37 a 62,49 mm. A maior frequência de comprimento foi encontrada em tamanhos intermediários de 44-46 mm, como foi observado em outras populações de Diplodon. A análise do crescimento, mortalidade e expectativa de vida foram similares em ambos os métodos, por isso, utilizamos em conjunto para ajustar a curva de crescimento da população. A relação peso-comprimento foi alta (r = 0,7-0,8). A avaliação do ciclo reprodutivo indica uma continuidade no desenvolvimento larval ao longo dos meses, à exceção de janeiro/2014. Contabilizamos um total de 54.617 gloquídios, havendo mais indivíduos grávidos com gloquídios (n=5) nos meses de julho e setembro de 2014. Padrão similar foi encontrado em outras espécies de bivalves de água doce, inclusive em Diplodon ellipticus no estado do Paraná. Os gloquídios maduros foram encontrados em amplitudes de temperaturas de 20,1-25,27C e acreditamos que a temperatura pode influenciar na liberação dos mesmos. Os bivalves com o maior e o menor número de gloquídios foram encontrados em novembro/2013 (n= 4759) e setembro/2014 (n= 212), respectivamente. A correlação entre o comprimento do marsúpio e o tamanho da ninhada foi testada pela primeira vez nesse gênero e foi significativa (r= 0,303 , p<0,05). As informações deste estudo são relevantes ao conhecimento da espécie e às futuras ações de gestão que tenham como objetivo preservar as espécies de Diplodon