Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Laws of large numbers for non-additive probabilities

We apply the concept of exchangeable random variables to the case of non-additive robability distributions exhibiting ncertainty aversion, and in the lass generated bya convex core convex non-additive probabilities, ith a convex core). We are able to rove two versions of the law of arge numbers (de Finetti's heorems). By making use of two efinitions. of independence we rove two versions of the strong law f large numbers. It turns out that e cannot assure the convergence of he sample averages to a constant. e then modal the case there is a true" probability distribution ehind the successive realizations of the uncertain random variable. In this case convergence occurs. This result is important because it renders true the intuition that it is possible "to learn" the "true" additive distribution behind an uncertain event if one repeatedly observes it (a sufficiently large number of times). We also provide a conjecture regarding the "Iearning" (or updating) process above, and prove a partia I result for the case of Dempster-Shafer updating rule and binomial trials.

Comparison of microbial numbers in soils by using various culture media and temperatures

The influence of different media and incubation temperatures on the quantification of microbial populations in sorghum, eucalyptus and forest soils was evaluated. Microbial growth was compared by using complex (tryptone soybean agar, TSA, casein-starch, CS, and Martin) and saline (Thorton, M3, Czapeck) media and incubation temperatures of 25 and 30° C. Higher numbers of total bacterial. and fungal colony-forming units (CFU) were observed in sorghum soils, and of spore-forming and Gram-negative bacteria in forest soils than other soils. Actinomycetes counts were highest in forest soil when using CS medium at 30° C and in sorghum soil at 25° C in M3 medium. Microorganism counts were dependent on the media and incubation temperatures. The counts at temperatures of 30° C were significantly higher than at 25° C. Microbial quantification was best when using TSA medium for total. and spore-forming bacteria, Thorton for Gram-negative bacteria, M3 for actinomycetes, and Martin for fungi. © 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Computations of the flow past a still sphere at moderate reynolds numbers using an immersed boundary method

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of maternal hydration on the increase of amniotic fluid index

The objective of this study was to determine the effect of maternal hydration with oral isotonic solution and water on the amniotic fluid (AF) index of women with normohydramnios. Women with a normal AF index and gestational age between 33 and 36 weeks without maternal complications were randomized into three groups [isotonic solution (Gatorade (R)), water, control]. The isotonic solution and water groups were instructed to drink 1.5 L of the respective solution and the control group was instructed to drink 200 mL water over a period of 2 to 4 h. AF index was measured before and after hydration by Doppler ultrasonography. The investigator performing the AF index measurement was blind to the subject's group. Ninety-nine women completed the study without any adverse maternal effects. The median increase in AF index after hydration was significantly greater for the isotonic solution and water groups than for the control group. There was no significant difference between the isotonic solution and water groups. Hydration with isotonic solution and water caused a 10-fold (95% CI: 2.09-49.89) and 6-fold (95% CI: 1.16-30.95) increase in the chance of a 20% increase of AF index, respectively. Maternal hydration with isotonic solution or water increased the AF index in women with normohydramnios.

The Influence of Solutes on the Enthalpy/Entropy Change of the Actinomycin D Binding to DNA: Hydration, Energy Compensation and Long-Range Deformation on DNA

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effects of Surface Hydration and Application Method on the Bond Strength of Self-Etching Adhesives to Dentin

The effect of application methods and dentin hydration on the bond strength of three self-etching adhesives (SEA) were evaluated; 195 extracted bovine incisors were used. The buccal surface was ground in order to expose the dentin, which remained 2-mm minimum thickness, measured by a thickness meter through an opening on the lingual surface. Adper Single Bond 2 (TM) was used for the control group. The SEA were applied following two modes of application: passive or active and two hydration states of the dentin surface-dry and wet. After light-curing, composite buildups were made using Grandio (TM) composite. The specimens were sectioned and tested with a microtensile bond strength test. The application method and the hydration state resulted in statistical differences (p = 0.000) making the values of active application for mu TBS to dentin higher than passive application. The wet surfaces showed higher mu TBS to dentin ratios than dry surfaces. There were no statistical differences in mu TBS among the SEA tested but there were differences regarding to control group.

Effects of Surface Hydration State and Application Method on the Bond Strength of Self-etching Adhesives to Cut Enamel

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of surface hydration state and application method on the microtensile bond strength of one-step self-etching adhesives systems to cut enamel.Materials and Methods: One hundred ninety-five bovine teeth were used. The enamel on the buccal side was flattened with 600-grit SiC paper. For the control group, 15 teeth received Adper Single Bond 2, applied according to manufacturer's recommendations. The other specimens were divided into three groups according to the adhesive system used: Futura Bond M (FM; Voco), Clearfil S-3 Bond (CS; Kuraray), and Optibond All in One (OA; Kerr). For each group, two hydration states were tested: D: blown dry with air; W: the excess of water was removed with absorbent paper. Two application methods were tested: P (passive): the adhesive was simply left on the surface; A (active): the adhesive was rubbed with an applicator point. A coat of Grandio composite resin (Voco) was applied on the surface. The teeth were sectioned to obtain enamel-resin sticks (1 x 1 mm), which underwent microtensile bond testing. The data in MPa were submitted to a three-way ANOVA and Tukey's test (alpha = 5%).Results: The ANOVA showed significant differences for application method and the type of adhesive, but not for hydration state. For the application method, the results of Tukey's test were: P: 31.46 (+/-7.09)a; A: 34.04 (+/-7.19)b. For the type of adhesive, the results were: OA: 31.29 (+/-7.05)a; CS: 32.28 (+/-7.14)a; FM: 34.68 (+/-7.17)b; different lower-case letters indicate statistically significant differences.Conclusion: Active application improved the bond strength to cut enamel. The adhesive Futurabond M showed the highest bond strength to cut enamel.

Exact static soliton solutions of (3+1)-dimensional integrable theory with nonzero Hopf numbers

In this paper, we explicitly construct an infinite number of Hopfions (static, soliton solutions with nonzero Hopf topological charges) within the recently proposed (3 + 1)-dimensional, integrable, and relativistically invariant field theory. Two integers label the family of Hopfions we have found. Their product is equal to the Hopf charge which provides a lower bound to the soliton's finite energy. The Hopfions are explicitly constructed in terms of the toroidal coordinates and shown to have a form of linked closed vortices.

Distribution and insertion numbers of transposable elements in species of the Drosophila saltans group

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)