Developing an epidemic forecasting model for Influenza A in Brisbane, Australia, based on climate and Hong Kong Influenza A surveillance data

Influenza is associated with substantial disease burden [ 1]. Development of a climate-based early warning system for in fluenza epidemics has been recommended given the signi fi - cant association between climate variability and influenza activity [2]. Brisbane is a subtropical city in Australia and offers free in fluenza vaccines to residents aged ≥65 years considering their high risks in developing life-threatening complications, especially for in fluenza A predominant seasons. Hong Kong is an international subtropical city in Eastern Asia and plays a crucial role in global infectious diseases transmission dynamics via the international air transportation network [3, 4]. We hypothesized that Hong Kong in fluenza surveillance data could provide a signal for in fluenza epidemics in Brisbane [ 4]. This study aims to develop an epidemic forecasting model for influenza A in Brisbane elders, by combining climate variability and Hong Kong in fluenza A surveillance data. Weekly numbers of laboratoryconfirmed influenza A positive isolates for people aged ≥65 years from 2004 to 2009 were obtained for Brisbane from Queensland Health, Australia, and for Hong Kong from Queen Mary Hospital (QMH). QMH is the largest public hospital located in Hong Kong Island, and in fluenza surveillance data from this hospital have been demonstrated to be representative for influenza circulation in the entirety of Hong Kong [ 5]. The Brisbane in fluenza A epidemics occurred during July –September, whereas the Hong Kong in fluenza A epidemics occurred during February –March and May –August.

Curating in uncharted territories: An examination of a programming model & communicative platform for curation in non-traditional art spaces

This thesis articulates and examines public engagement programming in an emerging, non¬-traditional site. As a practice-led research project, the creative work proposes a site responsive, engagement centric, agile model for curatorial programming that developed out of the dynamic, new media/digital, curatorial practice at QUT's Creative Industries Precinct. The model and its accompanying exegetical framework, Curating in Uncharted Territories, offer a theoretically informed approach to programming, delivering and reporting for curatorial practices in a non¬-traditional sites of public engagement. The research provides the foundation for full development of the model and the basis for further research.

Confirmatory factory analysis of the Neck Disability Index in a general problematic neck population indicates a one-factor model

BACKGROUND CONTEXT: The Neck Disability Index frequently is used to measure outcomes of the neck. The statistical rigor of the Neck Disability Index has been assessed with conflicting outcomes. To date, Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the Neck Disability Index has not been reported for a suitably large population study. Because the Neck Disability Index is not a condition-specific measure of neck function, initial Confirmatory Factor Analysis should consider problematic neck patients as a homogenous group. PURPOSE: We sought to analyze the factor structure of the Neck Disability Index through Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a symptomatic, homogeneous, neck population, with respect to pooled populations and gender subgroups. STUDY DESIGN: This was a secondary analysis of pooled data. PATIENT SAMPLE: A total of 1,278 symptomatic neck patients (67.5% female, median age 41 years), 803 nonspecific and 475 with whiplash-associated disorder. OUTCOME MEASURES: The Neck Disability Index was used to measure outcomes. METHODS: We analyzed pooled baseline data from six independent studies of patients with neck problems who completed Neck Disability Index questionnaires at baseline. The Confirmatory Factor Analysis was considered in three scenarios: the full sample and separate sexes. Models were compared empirically for best fit. RESULTS: Two-factor models have good psychometric properties across both the pooled and sex subgroups. However, according to these analyses, the one-factor solution is preferable from both a statistical perspective and parsimony. The two-factor model was close to significant for the male subgroup (p<.07) where questions separated into constructs of mental function (pain, reading headaches and concentration) and physical function (personal care, lifting, work, driving, sleep, and recreation). CONCLUSIONS: The Neck Disability Index demonstrated a one-factor structure when analyzed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis in a pooled, homogenous sample of neck problem patients. However, a two-factor model did approach significance for male subjects where questions separated into constructs of mental and physical function. Further investigations in different conditions, subgroup and sex-specific populations are warranted.

The multivariate A/C/E model and the genetics of fiber architecture

We present a new algorithm to compute the voxel-wise genetic contribution to brain fiber microstructure using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in a dataset of 25 monozygotic (MZ) twins and 25 dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs (100 subjects total). First, the structural and DT scans were linearly co-registered. Structural MR scans were nonlinearly mapped via a 3D fluid transformation to a geometrically centered mean template, and the deformation fields were applied to the DTI volumes. After tensor re-orientation to realign them to the anatomy, we computed several scalar and multivariate DT-derived measures including the geodesic anisotropy (GA), the tensor eigenvalues and the full diffusion tensors. A covariance-weighted distance was measured between twins in the Log-Euclidean framework [2], and used as input to a maximum-likelihood based algorithm to compute the contributions from genetics (A), common environmental factors (C) and unique environmental ones (E) to fiber architecture. Quanititative genetic studies can take advantage of the full information in the diffusion tensor, using covariance weighted distances and statistics on the tensor manifold.

A Synthetic Model for the Inhibition of Glutathione Peroxidase by Antiarthritic Gold Compounds

In this paper, inhibition of the glutathione peroxidase activity of two synthetic organoselenium compounds, bis[2-(N,N-dimethylamino)benzyl]diselenide (5) and bis[2-(N,N-dimethylamino)benzyl]selenide (9), by gold(I) thioglucose (1), chloro(triethylphosphine)gold(I), chloro(trimethylphosphine)gold(I), and chloro(triphenylphosphine)gold(I) is described. The inhibition is found to be competitive with respect to a peroxide (H2O2) substrate and noncompetitive with respect to a thiol (PhSH) cosubstrate. The diselenide 5 reacts with PhSH to produce the corresponding selenol (6), which upon treatment with 1 equiv of gold(I) chlorides produces the corresponding gold selenolate complexes 11−13. However, the addition of 1 equiv of selenol 6 to complexes 11−13 leads to the formation of bis-selenolate complex 14 by ligand displacement reactions involving the elimination of phosphine ligands. The phosphine ligands eliminated from these reactions are further converted to the corresponding phosphine oxides (R3PO) and selenides (R3PSe). In addition to the replacement of the phosphine ligand by selenol 6, an interchange between two different phosphine ligands is also observed. For example, the reaction of complex 11 having a trimethylphosphine ligand with triphenylphosphine produces complex 13 by phosphine interchange reactions via the formation of intermediates 15 and 16. The reactivity of selenol 6 toward gold(I) phosphines is found to be similar to that of selenocysteine.

Accounting for individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth model

Estimation of von Bertalanffy growth parameters has received considerable attention in fisheries research. Since Sainsbury (1980, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 37: 241-247) much of this research effort has centered on accounting for individual variability in the growth parameters. In this paper we demonstrate that, in analysis of tagging data, Sainsbury's method and its derivatives do not, in general, satisfactorily account for individual variability in growth, leading to inconsistent parameter estimates (the bias does not tend to zero as sample size increases to infinity). The bias arises because these methods do not use appropriate conditional expectations as a basis for estimation. This bias is found to be similar to that of the Fabens method. Such methods would be appropriate only under the assumption that the individual growth parameters that generate the growth increment were independent of the growth parameters that generated the initial length. However, such an assumption would be unrealistic. The results are derived analytically, and illustrated with a simulation study. Until techniques that take full account of the appropriate conditioning have been developed, the effect of individual variability on growth has yet to be fully understood.

Validation of a 4DOF manoeuvring model of a high-speed vehicle-passenger trimaran

This paper presents the validation of a manoeuvring model for a novel 127m-vehicle-passenger trimaran via full scale trials. The adopted structure of the model is based on a model previously proposed in the literature with some simplifications. The structure of the model is discussed. Then initial parameter estimates are computed, and the final set of parameters are obtained via adjustments based on engineering judgement and application of a genetic algorithm so as to match the data of the trials. The validity of the model is also assessed with data from a trial different from the one use for the parameter adjustment. The model shows good agreement with the trial data.

Rationale of Length Scale-Down Model Span Testing of Transmission Lines

Length scale-down (LS) model tests have been traditionally employed for laboratory studies on aeolian vibration of transmission line conductors. The span adopted is normally 30 m and is recommended by the relevant Indian, as well as other, standards. The traditionally adopted length of the LS model is reexamined herein to establish the rationale behind the choice. Based on the theoretical studies discussed, certain guidelines for the choice of model span of conductor are emphasized. In addition, the adequacy of the LS span as a tool for predicting the performance of the full span is reestablished.

Computer model for vedavati ground water basin. Part 1. Well field model

It is shown that a leaky aquifer model can be used for well field analysis in hard rock areas, treating the upper weathered and clayey layers as a composite unconfined aquitard overlying a deeper fractured aquifer. Two long-duration pump test studies are reported in granitic and schist regions in the Vedavati river basin. The validity of simplifications in the analytical solution is verified by finite difference computations.

Computer-model for vedavati groundwater basin .3. Irrigation potential

An estimate of the irrigation potential over and above the existing utilization was made based on the ground water potential in the Vedavati river basin. The estimate is based on assumed crops and cropping patterns as per existing practice in the various taluks of the basin. Irrigation potential was estimated talukwise based on the available ground water potential identified from the simulation study. It is estimated that 84,100 hectares of additional land can be brought under irrigation from ground water in the entire basin.

Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

Lignin biosynthesis in Norway spruce: from a model system to the tree

Lignin is a hydrophobic polymer that is synthesised in the secondary cell walls of all vascular plants. It enables water conduction through the stem, supports the upright growth habit and protects against invading pathogens. In addition, lignin hinders the utilisation of the cellulosic cell walls of plants in pulp and paper industry and as forage. Lignin precursors are synthesised in the cytoplasm through the phenylpropanoid pathway, transported into the cell wall and oxidised by peroxidases or laccases to phenoxy radicals that couple to form the lignin polymer. This study was conducted to characterise the lignin biosynthetic pathway in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We focused on the less well-known polymerisation stage, to identify the enzymes and the regulatory mechanisms that are involved. Available data for lignin biosynthesis in gymnosperms is scarce and, for example, the latest improvements in precursor biosynthesis have only been verified in herbaceous plants. Therefore, we also wanted to study in detail the roles of individual gene family members during developmental and stress-induced lignification, using EST sequencing and real-time RT-PCR. We used, as a model, a Norway spruce tissue culture line that produces extracellular lignin into the culture medium, and showed that lignin polymerisation in the tissue culture depends on peroxidase activity. We identified in the culture medium a significant NADH oxidase activity that could generate H2O2 for peroxidases. Two basic culture medium peroxidases were shown to have high affinity to coniferyl alcohol. Conservation of the putative substrate-binding amino acids was observed when the spruce peroxidase sequences were compared with other peroxidases with high affinity to coniferyl alcohol. We also used different peroxidase fractions to produce synthetic in vitro lignins from coniferyl alcohol; however, the linkage pattern of the suspension culture lignin could not be reproduced in vitro with the purified peroxidases, nor with the full complement of culture medium proteins. This emphasised the importance of the precursor radical concentration in the reaction zone, which is controlled by the cells through the secretion of both the lignin precursors and the oxidative enzymes to the apoplast. In addition, we identified basic peroxidases that were reversibly bound to the lignin precipitate. They could be involved, for example, in the oxidation of polymeric lignin, which is required for polymer growth. The dibenzodioxocin substructure was used as a marker for polymer oxidation in the in vitro polymerisation studies, as it is a typical substructure in wood lignin and in the suspension culture lignin. Using immunolocalisation, we found the structure mainly in the S2+S3 layers of the secondary cell walls of Norway spruce tracheids. The structure was primarily formed during the late phases of lignification. Contrary to the earlier assumptions, it appears to be a terminal structure in the lignin macromolecule. Most lignin biosynthetic enzymes are encoded for by several genes, all of which may not participate in lignin biosynthesis. In order to identify the gene family members that are responsible for developmental lignification, ESTs were sequenced from the lignin-forming tissue culture and developing xylem of spruce. Expression of the identified lignin biosynthetic genes was studied using real-time RT-PCR. Candidate genes for developmental lignification were identified by a coordinated, high expression of certain genes within the gene families in all lignin-forming tissues. However, such coordinated expression was not found for peroxidase genes. We also studied stress-induced lignification either during compression wood formation by bending the stems or after Heterobasidion annosum infection. Based on gene expression profiles, stress-induced monolignol biosynthesis appeared similar to the developmental process, and only single PAL and C3H genes were specifically up-regulated by stress. On the contrary, the up-regulated peroxidase genes differed between developmental and stress-induced lignification, indicating specific responses.

Boarding control system for improved accessibility to offshore wind turbines: Full-scale testing

This paper considers the dynamic modelling and motion control of a Surface Effect Ship (SES) for safer transfer of personnel and equipment from vessel to-and-from an offshore wind-turbine. The control system designed is referred to as Boarding Control System (BCS). The performance of this system is investigated for a specific wind-farm service vessel—The Wave Craft. On a SES, the pressurized air cushion supports the majority of the weight of the vessel. The control problem considered relates to the actuation of the pressure such that wave-induced vessel motions are minimized. Results are given through simulation, model- and full-scale experimental testing.

Comments on "Full-sphere simulations of circulation-dominated solar dynamo: Exploring the parity issue" - Reply

We respond to Dikpati et al.'s criticism of our recent solar dynamo model. A different treatment of the magnetic buoyancy is the most probable reason for their different results.

Non-linear couette flow with heat transfer using the B-G-K model

In recent years a large number of investigators have devoted their efforts to the study of flow and heat transfer in rarefied gases, using the BGK [1] model or the Boltzmann kinetic equation. The velocity moment method which is based on an expansion of the distribution function as a series of orthogonal polynomials in velocity space, has been applied to the linearized problem of shear flow and heat transfer by Mott-Smith [2] and Wang Chang and Uhlenbeck [3]. Gross, Jackson and Ziering [4] have improved greatly upon this technique by expressing the distribution function in terms of half-range functions and it is this feature which leads to the rapid convergence of the method. The full-range moments method [4] has been modified by Bhatnagar [5] and then applied to plane Couette flow using the B-G-K model. Bhatnagar and Srivastava [6] have also studied the heat transfer in plane Couette flow using the linearized B-G-K equation. On the other hand, the half-range moments method has been applied by Gross and Ziering [7] to heat transfer between parallel plates using Boltzmann equation for hard sphere molecules and by Ziering [83 to shear and heat flow using Maxwell molecular model. Along different lines, a moment method has been applied by Lees and Liu [9] to heat transfer in Couette flow using Maxwell's transfer equation rather than the Boltzmann equation for distribution function. An iteration method has been developed by Willis [10] to apply it to non-linear heat transfer problems using the B-G-K model, with the zeroth iteration being taken as the solution of the collisionless kinetic equation. Krook [11] has also used the moment method to formulate the equivalent continuum equations and has pointed out that if the effects of molecular collisions are described by the B-G-K model, exact numerical solutions of many rarefied gas-dynamic problems can be obtained. Recently, these numerical solutions have been obtained by Anderson [12] for the non-linear heat transfer in Couette flow,