Development of the optimal estimation method for inversion of stratospheric emission spectra and validation of HNO3 profiles

This doctoral thesis focuses on ground-based measurements of stratospheric nitric acid (HNO3)concentrations obtained by means of the Ground-Based Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (GBMS). Pressure broadened HNO3 emission spectra are analyzed using a new inversion algorithm developed as part of this thesis work and the retrieved vertical profiles are extensively compared to satellite-based data. This comparison effort I carried out has a key role in establishing a long-term (1991-2010), global data record of stratospheric HNO3, with an expected impact on studies concerning ozone decline and recovery. The first part of this work is focused on the development of an ad hoc version of the Optimal Estimation Method (Rodgers, 2000) in order to retrieve HNO3 spectra observed by means of GBMS. I also performed a comparison between HNO3 vertical profiles retrieved with the OEM and those obtained with the old iterative Matrix Inversion method. Results show no significant differences in retrieved profiles and error estimates, with the OEM providing however additional information needed to better characterize the retrievals. A final section of this first part of the work is dedicated to a brief review on the application of the OEM to other trace gases observed by GBMS, namely O3 and N2O. The second part of this study deals with the validation of HNO3 profiles obtained with the new inversion method. The first step has been the validation of GBMS measurements of tropospheric opacity, which is a necessary tool in the calibration of any GBMS spectra. This was achieved by means of comparisons among correlative measurements of water vapor column content (or Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV) since, in the spectral region observed by GBMS, the tropospheric opacity is almost entirely due to water vapor absorption. In particular, I compared GBMS PWV measurements collected during the primary field campaign of the ECOWAR project (Bhawar et al., 2008) with simultaneous PWV observations obtained with Vaisala RS92k radiosondes, a Raman lidar, and an IR Fourier transform spectrometer. I found that GBMS PWV measurements are in good agreement with the other three data sets exhibiting a mean difference between observations of ~9%. After this initial validation, GBMS HNO3 retrievals have been compared to two sets of satellite data produced by the two NASA/JPL Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments (aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) from 1991 to 1999, and on the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission from 2004 to date). This part of my thesis is inserted in GOZCARDS (Global Ozone Chemistry and Related Trace gas Data Records for the Stratosphere), a multi-year project, aimed at developing a long-term data record of stratospheric constituents relevant to the issues of ozone decline and expected recovery. This data record will be based mainly on satellite-derived measurements but ground-based observations will be pivotal for assessing offsets between satellite data sets. Since the GBMS has been operated for more than 15 years, its nitric acid data record offers a unique opportunity for cross-calibrating HNO3 measurements from the two MLS experiments. I compare GBMS HNO3 measurements obtained from the Italian Alpine station of Testa Grigia (45.9° N, 7.7° E, elev. 3500 m), during the period February 2004 - March 2007, and from Thule Air Base, Greenland (76.5°N 68.8°W), during polar winter 2008/09, and Aura MLS observations. A similar intercomparison is made between UARS MLS HNO3 measurements with those carried out from the GBMS at South Pole, Antarctica (90°S), during the most part of 1993 and 1995. I assess systematic differences between GBMS and both UARS and Aura HNO3 data sets at seven potential temperature levels. Results show that, except for measurements carried out at Thule, ground based and satellite data sets are consistent within the errors, at all potential temperature levels.

Thermochronologic and geodynamic evolution of the Pontides: Sakarya terrane (Karakaya Complex) and Istanbul terrane, Turkey.

An integrated array of analytical methods -including clay mineralogy, vitrinite reflectance, Raman spectroscopy on carbonaceous material, and apatite fission-track analysis- was employed to constrain the thermal and thermochronological evolution of selected portions of the Pontides of northern Turkey. (1) A multimethod investigation was applied for the first time to characterise the thermal history of the Karakaya Complex, a Permo-Triassic subduction-accretion complex cropping out throughout the Sakarya Zone. The results indicate two different thermal regimes: the Lower Karakaya Complex (Nilüfer Unit) -mostly made of metabasite and marble- suffered peak temperatures of 300-500°C (greenschist facies); the Upper Karakaya Complex (Hodul and the Orhanlar Units) –mostly made of greywacke and arkose- yielded heterogeneous peak temperatures (125-376°C), possibly the result of different degree of involvement of the units in the complex dynamic processes of the accretionary wedge. Contrary to common belief, the results of this study indicate that the entire Karakaya Complex suffered metamorphic conditions. Moreover, a good degree of correlation among the results of these methods demonstrate that Raman spectroscopy on carbonaceous material can be applied successfully to temperature ranges of 200-330°C, thus extending the application of this method from higher grade metamorphic contexts to lower grade metamorphic conditions. (2) Apatite fission-track analysis was applied to the Sakarya and the İstanbul Zones in order to constrain the exhumation history and timing of amalgamation of these two exotic terranes. AFT ages from the İstanbul and Sakarya terranes recorded three distinct episodes of exhumation related to the complex tectonic evolution of the Pontides. (i) Paleocene - early Eocene ages (62.3-50.3 Ma) reflect the closure of the İzmir-Ankara ocean and the ensuing collision between the Sakarya terrane and the Anatolide-Tauride Block. (ii) Late Eocene - earliest Oligocene (43.5-32.3 Ma) ages reflect renewed tectonic activity along the İzmir-Ankara. (iii) Late Oligocene- Early Miocene ages reflect the onset and development of the northern Aegean extension. The consistency of AFT ages, both north and south of the tectonic contact between the İstanbul and Sakarya terranes, suggest that such terranes were amalgamated in pre-Cenozoic times. (3) Fission-track analysis was also applied to rock samples from the Marmara region, in an attempt to constrain the inception and development of the North Anatolian Fault system in the region. The results agree with those from the central Pontides. The youngest AFT ages (Late Oligocene - early Miocene) were recorded in the western portion of the Marmara Sea region and reflect the onset and development of northern Aegean extension. Fission-track data from the eastern Marmara Sea region indicate rapid Early Eocene exhumation induced by the development of the İzmir-Ankara orogenic wedge. Thermochronological data along the trace of the Ganos Fault –a segment of the North Anatolian Fault system- indicate the presence of a tectonic discontinuity active by Late Oligocene time, i.e. well before the arrival of the North Anatolian Fault system in the area. The integration of thermochronologic data with preexisting structural data point to the existence of a system of major E-W-trending structural discontinuities active at least from the Late Oligocene. In the Early Pliocene, inception of the present-day North Anatolian Fault system in the Marmara region occurred by reactivation of these older tectonic structures. 


Preliminary studies for the establishment of a tsunami early detection algorithm to be used in the frame of a Tsunami Warning System

This thesis presents and discusses TEDA, an algorithm for the automatic detection in real-time of tsunamis and large amplitude waves on sea level records. TEDA has been developed in the frame of the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna for coastal tide gauges and it has been calibrated and tested for the tide gauge station of Adak Island, in Alaska. A preliminary study to apply TEDA to offshore buoys in the Pacific Ocean is also presented.

Geological and Structural evolution of the Eurasia Africa plate boundary in the Gulf of Cadiz Central Eastern Atlantic Sea.

Iberia Africa plate boundary, cross, roughly W-E, connecting the eastern Atlantic Ocean from Azores triple junction to the Continental margin of Morocco. Relative movement between the two plate change along the boundary, from transtensive near the Azores archipelago, through trascurrent movement in the middle at the Gloria Fracture Zone, to transpressive in the Gulf of Cadiz area. This study presents the results of geophysical and geological analysis on the plate boundary area offshore Gibraltar. The main topic is to clarify the geodynamic evolution of this area from Oligocene to Quaternary. Recent studies have shown that the new plate boundary is represented by a 600 km long set of aligned, dextral trascurrent faults (the SWIM lineaments) connecting the Gloria fault to the Riff orogene. The western termination of these lineaments crosscuts the Gibraltar accretionary prism and seems to reach the Moroccan continental shelf. In the past two years newly acquired bathymetric data collected in the Moroccan offshore permit to enlighten the present position of the eastern portion of the plate boundary, previously thought to be a diffuse plate boundary. The plate boundary evolution, from the onset of compression in the Oligocene to the Late Pliocene activation of trascurrent structures, is not yet well constrained. The review of available seismics lines, gravity and bathymetric data, together with the analysis of new acquired bathymetric and high resolution seismic data offshore Morocco, allows to understand how the deformation acted at lithospheric scale under the compressive regime. Lithospheric folding in the area is suggested, and a new conceptual model is proposed for the propagation of the deformation acting in the brittle crust during this process. Our results show that lithospheric folding, both in oceanic and thinned continental crust, produced large wavelength synclines bounded by short wavelength, top thrust, anticlines. Two of these anticlines are located in the Gulf of Cadiz, and are represented by the Gorringe Ridge and Coral Patch seamounts. Lithospheric folding probably interacted with the Monchique – Madeira hotspot during the 72 Ma to Recent, NNE – SSW transit. Plume related volcanism is for the first time described on top of the Coral Patch seamount, where nine volcanoes are found by means of bathymetric data. 40Ar-39Ar age of 31.4±1.98 Ma are measured from one rock sample of one of these volcanoes. Analysis on biogenic samples show how the Coral Patch act as a starved offshore seamount since the Chattian. We proposed that compression stress formed lithospheric scale structures playing as a reserved lane for the upwelling of mantle material during the hotspot transit. The interaction between lithospheric folding and the hotspot emplacement can be also responsible for the irregularly spacing, and anomalous alignments, of individual islands and seamounts belonging to the Monchique - Madeira hotspot.

Tectonic geomorphology and active strain of the Northern Apennines mountain front

The Northern Apennines (NA) chain is the expression of the active plate margin between Europe and Adria. Given the low convergence rates and the moderate seismic activity, ambiguities still occur in defining a seismotectonic framework and many different scenarios have been proposed for the mountain front evolution. Differently from older models that indicate the mountain front as an active thrust at the surface, a recently proposed scenario describes the latter as the frontal limb of a long-wavelength fold (> 150 km) formed by a thrust fault tipped around 17 km at depth, and considered as the active subduction boundary. East of Bologna, this frontal limb is remarkably very straight and its surface is riddled with small, but pervasive high- angle normal faults. However, west of Bologna, some recesses are visible along strike of the mountain front: these perturbations seem due to the presence of shorter wavelength (15 to 25 km along strike) structures showing both NE and NW-vergence. The Pleistocene activity of these structures was already suggested, but not quantitative reconstructions are available in literature. This research investigates the tectonic geomorphology of the NA mountain front with the specific aim to quantify active deformations and infer possible deep causes of both short- and long-wavelength structures. This study documents the presence of a network of active extensional faults, in the foothills south and east of Bologna. For these structures, the strain rate has been measured to find a constant throw-to-length relationship and the slip rates have been compared with measured rates of erosion. Fluvial geomorphology and quantitative analysis of the topography document in detail the active tectonics of two growing domal structures (Castelvetro - Vignola foothills and the Ghiardo plateau) embedded in the mountain front west of Bologna. Here, tilting and river incision rates (interpreted as that long-term uplift rates) have been measured respectively at the mountain front and in the Enza and Panaro valleys, using a well defined stratigraphy of Pleistocene to Holocene river terraces and alluvial fan deposits as growth strata, and seismic reflection profiles relationships. The geometry and uplift rates of the anticlines constrain a simple trishear fault propagation folding model that inverts for blind thrust ramp depth, dip, and slip. Topographic swath profiles and the steepness index of river longitudinal profiles that traverse the anti- clines are consistent with stratigraphy, structures, aquifer geometry, and seismic reflection profiles. Available focal mechanisms of earthquakes with magnitude between Mw 4.1 to 5.4, obtained from a dataset of the instrumental seismicity for the last 30 years, evidence a clear vertical separation at around 15 km between shallow extensional and deeper compressional hypocenters along the mountain front and adjacent foothills. In summary, the studied anticlines appear to grow at rates slower than the growing rate of the longer- wavelength structure that defines the mountain front of the NA. The domal structures show evidences of NW-verging deformation and reactivations of older (late Neogene) thrusts. The reconstructed river incision rates together with rates coming from several other rivers along a 250 km wide stretch of the NA mountain front and recently available in the literature, all indicate a general increase from Middle to Late Pleistocene. This suggests focusing of deformation along a deep structure, as confirmed by the deep compressional seismicity. The maximum rate is however not constant along the mountain front, but varies from 0.2 mm/yr in the west to more than 2.2 mm/yr in the eastern sector, suggesting a similar (eastward-increasing) trend of the apenninic subduction.

Modeling hydrothermal system: deriving observables and hydrothermal instability in volcanic and non-volcanic setting

Hydrothermal fluids are a fundamental resource for understanding and monitoring volcanic and non-volcanic systems. This thesis is focused on the study of hydrothermal system through numerical modeling with the geothermal simulator TOUGH2. Several simulations are presented, and geophysical and geochemical observables, arising from fluids circulation, are analyzed in detail throughout the thesis. In a volcanic setting, fluids feeding fumaroles and hot spring may play a key role in the hazard evaluation. The evolution of the fluids circulation is caused by a strong interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems. A simultaneous analysis of different geophysical and geochemical observables is a sound approach for interpreting monitored data and to infer a consistent conceptual model. Analyzed observables are ground displacement, gravity changes, electrical conductivity, amount, composition and temperature of the emitted gases at surface, and extent of degassing area. Results highlight the different temporal response of the considered observables, as well as the different radial pattern of variation. However, magnitude, temporal response and radial pattern of these signals depend not only on the evolution of fluid circulation, but a main role is played by the considered rock properties. Numerical simulations highlight differences that arise from the assumption of different permeabilities, for both homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. Rock properties affect hydrothermal fluid circulation, controlling both the range of variation and the temporal evolution of the observable signals. Low temperature fumaroles and low discharge rate may be affected by atmospheric conditions. Detailed parametric simulations were performed, aimed to understand the effects of system properties, such as permeability and gas reservoir overpressure, on diffuse degassing when air temperature and barometric pressure changes are applied to the ground surface. Hydrothermal circulation, however, is not only a characteristic of volcanic system. Hot fluids may be involved in several mankind problems, such as studies on geothermal engineering, nuclear waste propagation in porous medium, and Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS). The current concept for large-scale GCS is the direct injection of supercritical carbon dioxide into deep geological formations which typically contain brine. Upward displacement of such brine from deep reservoirs driven by pressure increases resulting from carbon dioxide injection may occur through abandoned wells, permeable faults or permeable channels. Brine intrusion into aquifers may degrade groundwater resources. Numerical results show that pressure rise drives dense water up to the conduits, and does not necessarily result in continuous flow. Rather, overpressure leads to new hydrostatic equilibrium if fluids are initially density stratified. If warm and salty fluid does not cool passing through the conduit, an oscillatory solution is then possible. Parameter studies delineate steady-state (static) and oscillatory solutions.

Potential fields study of Marsili basin and Palinuro volcanic complex

In this thesis Marsili back-arc basin and Palinuro Volcanic Complex (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) have been investigated by using magnetic, bathymetric and gravimetric data. A new velocity model of opening of the Marsili basin has been proposed, highlighting the transition from the horizontal spreading of the back-arc to the vertical accretion of the Marsili seamount. Introducing gravity data, Marsili's internal structure has been modeled and a huge portion of the volcano with low density and vanishing magnetization has been detected. Forward modeling of Palinuro Volcanic Complex showed as Palinuro represents the shallowest evidence of a deep tectonic discontinuity and the possible transition domain between the oceanic crust of Marsili Basin and the continental crust related to the Appenninic chain.

Detailed study of the seismotectonic setting in the Lucanian Apennines and surrounding areas (Southern Italy)

In this research work I analyzed the instrumental seismicity of Southern Italy in the area including the Lucanian Apennines and Bradano foredeep, making use of the most recent seismological database available so far. I examined the seismicity occurred during the period between 2001 and 2006, considering 514 events with magnitudes M ≥ 2.0. In the first part of the work, P- and S-wave arrival times, recorded by the Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC) operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), were re-picked along with those of the SAPTEX temporary array (2001–2004). For some events located in the Upper Val d'Agri, I also used data from the Eni-Agip oil company seismic network. I computed the VP/VS ratio obtaining a value of 1.83 and I carried out an analysis for the one-dimensional (1D) velocity model that approximates the seismic structure of the study area. After this preliminary analysis, making use of the records obtained in the SeSCAL experiment, I incremented the database by handpicking new arrival times. My final dataset consists of 15,666 P- and 9228 S-arrival times associated to 1047 earthquakes with magnitude ML ≥ 1.5. I computed 162 fault-plane solutions and composite focal mechanisms for closely located events. I investigated stress field orientation inverting focal mechanism belonging to the Lucanian Apennine and the Pollino Range, both areas characterized by more concentrated background seismicity. Moreover, I applied the double difference technique (DD) to improve the earthquake locations. Considering these results and different datasets available in the literature, I carried out a detailed analysis of single sub-areas and of a swarm (November 2008) recorded by SeSCAL array. The relocated seismicity appears more concentrated within the upper crust and it is mostly clustered along the Lucanian Apennine chain. In particular, two well-defined clusters were located in the Potentino and in the Abriola-Pietrapertosa sector (central Lucanian region). Their hypocentral depths are slightly deeper than those observed beneath the chain. I suggest that these two seismic features are representative of the transition from the inner portion of the chain with NE-SW extension to the external margin characterized by dextral strike-slip kinematics. In the easternmost part of the study area, below the Bradano foredeep and the Apulia foreland, the seismicity is generally deeper and more scattered and is associated to the Murge uplift and to the small structures present in the area. I also observed a small structure NE-SW oriented in the Abriola-Pietrapertosa area (activated with a swarm in November 2008) that could be considered to act as a barrier to the propagation of a potential rupture of an active NW-SE striking faults system. Focal mechanisms computed in this study are in large part normal and strike-slip solutions and their tensional axes (T-axes) have a generalized NE-SW orientation. Thanks to denser coverage of seismic stations and the detailed analysis, this study is a further contribution to the comprehension of the seismogenesis and state of stress of the Southern Apennines region, giving important contributions to seismotectonic zoning and seismic hazard assessment.

Kinematic description of the rupture from strong motion data: strategies for a robust inversion

We present a non linear technique to invert strong motion records with the aim of obtaining the final slip and rupture velocity distributions on the fault plane. In this thesis, the ground motion simulation is obtained evaluating the representation integral in the frequency. The Green’s tractions are computed using the discrete wave-number integration technique that provides the full wave-field in a 1D layered propagation medium. The representation integral is computed through a finite elements technique, based on a Delaunay’s triangulation on the fault plane. The rupture velocity is defined on a coarser regular grid and rupture times are computed by integration of the eikonal equation. For the inversion, the slip distribution is parameterized by 2D overlapping Gaussian functions, which can easily relate the spectrum of the possible solutions with the minimum resolvable wavelength, related to source-station distribution and data processing. The inverse problem is solved by a two-step procedure aimed at separating the computation of the rupture velocity from the evaluation of the slip distribution, the latter being a linear problem, when the rupture velocity is fixed. The non-linear step is solved by optimization of an L2 misfit function between synthetic and real seismograms, and solution is searched by the use of the Neighbourhood Algorithm. The conjugate gradient method is used to solve the linear step instead. The developed methodology has been applied to the M7.2, Iwate Nairiku Miyagi, Japan, earthquake. The estimated magnitude seismic moment is 2.6326 dyne∙cm that corresponds to a moment magnitude MW 6.9 while the mean the rupture velocity is 2.0 km/s. A large slip patch extends from the hypocenter to the southern shallow part of the fault plane. A second relatively large slip patch is found in the northern shallow part. Finally, we gave a quantitative estimation of errors associates with the parameters.

Structure of the Southern Tyrrhenian subduction system: insights from seismological analysis of anisotropy and attenuation

The Southern Tyrrhenian subduction system shows a complex interaction among asthenospheric flow, subducting slab and overriding plate. To shed light on the deformations and mechanical properties of the slab and surrounding mantle, I investigated seismic anisotropy and attenuation properties through the subduction region. I used both teleseisms and slab earthquakes, analyzing shear-wave splitting on SKS and S phases, respectively. The fast polarization directions φ, and the delay time, δt, were retrieved using the method of Silver and Chan [1991. SKS and S φ reveal a complex anisotropy pattern across the subduction zone. SKS-rays sample primarily the sub-slab region showing rotation of fast directions following the curved shape of the slab and very strong anisotropy. S-rays sample mainly the slab, showing variable φ and a smaller δt. SKS and S splitting reveals a well developed toroidal flow at SW edge of the slab, while at its NE edge the pattern is not very clear. This suggests that the anisotropy is controlled by the slab rollback, responsible for about 100 km slab parallel φ in the sub-slab mantle. The slab is weakly anisotropic, suggesting the asthenosphere as main source of anisotropy. To investigate the physical properties of the slab and surrounding regions, I analyzed the seismic P and S wave attenuation. By inverting high-quality S-waves t* from slab earthquakes, 3D attenuation models down to 300 km were obtained. Attenuation results image the slab as low-attenuation body, but with heterogeneous QS and QP structure showing spot of high attenuation , between 100-200 km depth, which could be due dehydration associated to the slab metamorphism. A low QS anomaly is present in the mantle wedge beneath the Aeolian volcanic arc and could indicate mantle melting and slab dehydration.