Extended Kalman filters using explicit and derivative-free local linearizations

We propose three variants of the extended Kalman filter (EKF) especially suited for parameter estimations in mechanical oscillators under Gaussian white noises. These filters are based on three versions of explicit and derivative-free local linearizations (DLL) of the non-linear drift terms in the governing stochastic differential equations (SDE-s). Besides a basic linearization of the non-linear drift functions via one-term replacements, linearizations using replacements through explicit Euler and Newmark expansions are also attempted in order to ensure higher closeness of true solutions with the linearized ones. Thus, unlike the conventional EKF, the proposed filters do not need computing derivatives (tangent matrices) at any stage. The measurements are synthetically generated by corrupting with noise the numerical solutions of the SDE-s through implicit versions of these linearizations. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed methods vis-à-vis the conventional EKF, numerical illustrations are provided for a few single degree-of-freedom (DOF) oscillators and a three-DOF shear frame with constant parameters.

An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

Computerized synthesis of the structure of geared kinematic chains

The paper presents for the first time a fully computerized method for structural synthesis of geared kinematic chains which can be used to derive epicyclic gear drives. The method has been formulated on the basis of representing these chains by their graphs, the graphs being in turn represented algebraically by their vertex-vertex incidence matrices. It has thus been possible to make advantageous use of concepts and results from graph theory to develop a method amenable for implementation on a digital computer. The computerized method has been applied to the structural synthesis of single-freedom geared kinematic chains with up to four gear pairs, and the results obtained thereform are presented and discussed.

Improving Knowledge and Practices in Mango Supply Chains

Mangoes consigned to domestic markets suffered from fruit quality problems from 1997 to 2000. A high incidence of disease breakdown and green-ripe fruit resulted in loss of confidence by marketers, and reduced profits for everyone from grower to retailer. The ‘Better Mangoes’ project was initiated to identify where, and why quality was being lost, and to use this information to improve the knowledge and practices of supply chain businesses.

Conformational Dynamics in Alkyl Chains of an Anchored Bilayer: A Molecular Dynamics Study

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are reported for an anchored bilayer formed by the intercalation of cetyl trimethyl ammonium (CTA) and CH3(CH2)15N+(CH3) ions in a layered solid, CdPS3. The intercalated CTA ions are organized with the cationic headgroups tethered to the inorganic sheet and the hydrocarbon tails arranged as bilayers. Simulations were performed at three temperatures, 65, 180, and 298 K, using an isothermal−isobaric ensemble that was subsequently switched once macroscopic parameters had converged to a canonical isothermal−isochoric ensemble. The simulations are able to reproduce the experimental features of this system, including the formation of the bilayer and layer-to-layer separation distance. An analysis of the conformation of the chains showed that at all three temperatures a fraction of the alkyl chains retained a planar all-trans conformation, and that gauche bonds occurred as part of a “kink” (gauche+−trans−gauche−) sequence and not as isolated gauche bonds. Trans−gauche isomerization rates for the alkyl chains in the anchored bilayer are slower than those in lipid bilayers at the same temperature and show a progressive increase as the torsion numbers approach the tail. A two-dimensional periodic Voronoi tessellation analysis was performed to obtain the single-molecular area of an alkyl chain in the bilayer. The single-molecular area relaxation times are an order of magnitude longer than the trans−gauche isomerization times. The results indicate that the trans−gauche isomerization is associated with the creation and annihilation of a kink defect sequence. The results of the present MD simulation explain the apparent conflicting estimates of the gauche disorder in this system as obtained from infrared and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance measurements.

Adolescent writing development: Improving succinctness using the extended noun phrase

This study examined an aspect of adolescent writing development, specifically whether teaching secondary school students to use strategies to enhance succinctness in their essays changed the grammatical sophistication of their sentences. A quasi-experimental intervention was used to compare changes in syntactic complexity and lexical density between one-draft and polished essays. No link was demonstrated between the intervention and the changes. A thematic analysis of teacher interviews explored links between changes to student texts and teaching approaches. The study has implications for making syntactic complexity an explicit goal of student drafting.

Developing improved supply chains for temperate fruits in transitional Asian economies of Thailand and Vietnam.

Asia's increasing demand for both tropical and temperate fruit is projected to grow significantly. Compared with most developed countries, the production of temperate fruits (peach, nectarine, plum and apple) has expanded rapidly in China over the past 20 years. In contrast, current production of plums and peaches in neighbouring countries (Thailand and Vietnam) is very low but their fruit enters the market earlier. Thailand and Vietnam have enormous potential to satisfy a market window in the northern hemisphere period from March to May inclusive when there is little or no stone fruit on the Asian market. In Vietnam, fruit is harvested in an immature state to avoid disease and fruit fly problems and consequently lacks size and flavour. Approximately 30-40% of locally produced fruit in Vietnam does not reach market due to disease and poor handling during picking and transport. In Thailand, much of the infrastructure needed to transport, store, process and market temperate fruits successfully are now in place. However, there are currently no cool chain management or quality assurance systems to ensure a fresh product reaches the consumer with minimal deterioration. In Vietnam, growing stone fruit under the traditional system with little or minimal inputs, the farmer may receive between AUD3,000-5,000 per ha. In comparison, under higher input systems incorporating fertiliser, irrigation and pest and disease management, net returns can be increased seven-fold. Strengths and weaknesses of the current supply chains in these two countries are discussed.

Improving knowledge and practices in fresh produce chains

A successful supply chain must delivery the right product, value and satisfaction to the end customer, and profitability for its participants. Critical to getting the product right is the practices used to produce and maintain product quality through the supply chain from production to sale to the end customer. This paper describes the approach used by a R&D team to add value to supply chains through improving knowledge and practices. The desired outcome is better produce quality for consumers and more control and less wastage for chain participants. The team worked with specific supply chains to identify areas for improvement and to develop, test and implement improved practices. The knowledge gained was communicated to the industry to gain wider adoption of results. Three conditions were identified as critical for practice change - motivation, knowledge, and capacity for change. For improvement in practices to occur, a business must be motivated and have the knowledge and capacity to improve. Two case studies of working with Australian supply chains (mango and melons) are presented to illustrate our participatory methodology. A key activity is monitoring produce quality and handling practices and conditions to demonstrate to participants the points where quality deterioration occurs in the supply chain. This participatory approach is successful because working with supply chain participants generates knowledge and solutions to real problems. It enables the participants to observe the effect of handling practices and conditions on produce quality, gain knowledge and assess the benefits of improvements. Where existing knowledge is not present, research is conducted to fill the knowledge gaps. IV International Conference on Managing Quality in Chains - The Integrated View on Fruits and Vegetables Quality

A computerized methodology for structural synthesis of kinematic chains: Part 1- Formulation

In an effort to develop a fully computerized approach for structural synthesis of kinematic chains the steps involved in the method of structural synthesis based on transformation of binary chains [38] have been recast in a format suitable for implementation on a digital computer. The methodology thus evolved has been combined with the algebraic procedures for structural analysis [44] to develop a unified computer program for structural synthesis and analysis of simple jointed kinematic chains with a degree of freedom 0. Applications of this program are presented in the succeeding parts of the paper.

A computerized methodology for structural synthesis of kinematic chains: Part 2 - Application to several fully or partially known cases

The reliability of the computer program for structural synthesis and analysis of simple-jointed kinematic chains developed in Part 1 has been established by applying it to several cases for whuch solutions are either fully or partially available in the literature, such as 7-link, zero-freedom chains; 8- and 10-link, single-freedom chains; 12-link, single-freedom binary chains; and 9-link, two-freedom chains. In the process some discrepancies in the results reported in previous literature have been brought to light.

A computerized methodology for structural synthesis of kinematic chains: Part 3 - application to the new case of 10-link, three- freedom chains

The unified computer program for structural synthesis and analysis developed in Part 1 has been employed to derive the new and complete collection of 97 10-link, three-freedom simple-jointed kinematic chains. The program shows that of these chains, 3 have total freedom, 70 have partial freedom and the remaining 24 have fractionated freedom and that the 97 chains yield a total of 676 distinct mechanisms.

In quest of a reliable and efficient computational test for detection of isomorphism in kinematic chains

The test based on comparison of the characteristic coefficients of the adjancency matrices of the corresponding graphs for detection of isomorphism in kinematic chains has been shown to fail in the case of two pairs of ten-link, simple-jointed chains, one pair corresponding to single-freedom chains and the other pair corresponding to three-freedom chains. An assessment of the merits and demerits of available methods for detection of isomorphism in graphs and kinematic chains is presented, keeping in view the suitability of the methods for use in computerized structural synthesis of kinematic chains. A new test based on the characteristic coefficients of the “degree” matrix of the corresponding graph is proposed for detection of isomorphism in kinematic chains. The new test is found to be successful in the case of a number of examples of graphs where the test based on characteristic coefficients of adjancency matrix fails. It has also been found to be successful in distinguishing the structures of all known simple-jointed kinematic chains in the categories of (a) single-freedom chains with up to 10 links, (b) two-freedom chains with up to 9 links and (c) three-freedom chains with up to 10 links.

Adoption of environmental assurance in pastoral industry supply chains - Market failure and beyond

This paper describes adoption rates of environmental assurance within meat and wool supply chains, and discusses this in terms of market interest and demand for certified 'environmentally friendly' products, based on phone surveys and personal interviews with pastoral producers, meat and wool processors, wholesalers and retailers, and domestic consumers. Members of meat and wool supply chains, particularly pastoral producers, are both aware of and interested in implementing various forms of environmental assurance, but significant costs combined with few private benefits have resulted in low adoption rates. The main reason for the lack of benefits is that the end user (the consumer) does not value environmental assurance and is not willing to pay for it. For this reason, global food and fibre supply chains, which compete to supply consumers with safe and quality food at the lowest price, resist public pressure to implement environmental assurance. This market failure is further exacerbated by highly variable environmental and social production standards required of primary producers in different countries, and the disparate levels of government support provided to them. Given that it is the Australian general public and not markets that demand environmental benefits from agriculture, the Australian government has a mandate to use public funds to counter this market failure. A national farm environmental policy should utilise a range of financial incentives to reward farmers for delivering general public good environmental outcomes, with these specified and verified through a national environmental assurance scheme.

Self-Organization of n-Alkane Chains in Water: Length Dependent Crossover from Helix and Toroid to Molten Globule

We demonstrate a chain length dependent crossover in the structural properties of linear hydrocarbon (n-alkane) chains using detailed atomistic simulations in explicit water. We identify a number of exotic structures of the polymer chain through energy minimization of representative snapshots collected from molecular dynamics trajectory. While the collapsed state is ring-like (circular) for small chains (CnH2n+2; n <= 20) and spherical for very long ones (n = 100), we find the emergence of ordered helical structures at intermediate lengths (n similar to 40). We find different types of disordered helices and toroid-like structures at n = 60. We also report a sharp transition in the stability of the collapsed state as a function of the chain length through relevant free energy calculations. While the collapsed state is only marginally metastable for C20H42, a clear bistable free energy surface emerges only when the chain is about 30 monomers long. For n = 30, the polymer exhibits an intermittent oscillation between the collapsed and the coil structures, characteristic of two stable states separated by a small barrier.

Principles to guide sustainable implementation of extended-scope-of-practice physiotherapy workforce redesign initiatives in Australia: Stakeholder perspectives, barriers, supports, and incentives

Sustainable implementation of new workforce redesign initiatives requires strategies that minimize barriers and optimize supports. Such strategies could be provided by a set of guiding principles. A broad understanding of the concerns of all the key stakeholder groups is required before effective strategies and initiatives are developed. Many new workforce redesign initiatives are not underpinned by prior planning, and this threatens their uptake and sustainability. This study reports on a cross-sectional qualitative study that sought the perspectives of representatives of key stakeholders in a new workforce redesign initiative (extended-scope-of-practice physiotherapy) in one Australian tertiary hospital. The key stakeholder groups were those that had been involved in some way in the development, management, training, funding, and/or delivery of the initiative. Data were collected using semistructured questions, answered individually by interview or in writing. Responses were themed collaboratively, using descriptive analysis. Key identified themes comprised: the importance of service marketing; proactively addressing barriers; using readily understood nomenclature; demonstrating service quality and safety, monitoring adverse events, measuring health and cost outcomes; legislative issues; registration; promoting viable career pathways; developing, accrediting, and delivering a curriculum supporting physiotherapists to work outside of the usual scope; and progression from "a good idea" to established service. Health care facilities planning to implement new workforce initiatives that extend scope of usual practice should consider these issues before instigating workforce/model of care changes. © 2014 Morris et al.