Hero's journey in bifurcation diagram

The hero's journey is a narrative structure identified by several authors in comparative studies on folklore and mythology. This storytelling template presents the stages of inner metamorphosis undergone by the protagonist after being called to an adventure. In a simplified version, this journey is divided into three acts separated by two crucial moments. Here we propose a discrete-time dynamical system for representing the protagonist's evolution. The suffering along the journey is taken as the control parameter of this system. The bifurcation diagram exhibits stationary, periodic and chaotic behaviors. In this diagram, there are transition from fixed point to chaos and transition from limit cycle to fixed point. We found that the values of the control parameter corresponding to these two transitions are in quantitative agreement with the two critical moments of the three-act hero's journey identified in 10 movies appearing in the list of the 200 worldwide highest-grossing films. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Network-based stochastic semisupervised learning

Semisupervised learning is a machine learning approach that is able to employ both labeled and unlabeled samples in the training process. In this paper, we propose a semisupervised data classification model based on a combined random-preferential walk of particles in a network (graph) constructed from the input dataset. The particles of the same class cooperate among themselves, while the particles of different classes compete with each other to propagate class labels to the whole network. A rigorous model definition is provided via a nonlinear stochastic dynamical system and a mathematical analysis of its behavior is carried out. A numerical validation presented in this paper confirms the theoretical predictions. An interesting feature brought by the competitive-cooperative mechanism is that the proposed model can achieve good classification rates while exhibiting low computational complexity order in comparison to other network-based semisupervised algorithms. Computer simulations conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets reveal the effectiveness of the model.

A semi-supervised classification technique based on interacting forces

Semi-supervised learning is a classification paradigm in which just a few labeled instances are available for the training process. To overcome this small amount of initial label information, the information provided by the unlabeled instances is also considered. In this paper, we propose a nature-inspired semi-supervised learning technique based on attraction forces. Instances are represented as points in a k-dimensional space, and the movement of data points is modeled as a dynamical system. As the system runs, data items with the same label cooperate with each other, and data items with different labels compete among them to attract unlabeled points by applying a specific force function. In this way, all unlabeled data items can be classified when the system reaches its stable state. Stability analysis for the proposed dynamical system is performed and some heuristics are proposed for parameter setting. Simulation results show that the proposed technique achieves good classification results on artificial data sets and is comparable to well-known semi-supervised techniques using benchmark data sets.

Spectrum shaping and its application: spread-spectrum clock generator and circuits for ultra wide band

Electromagnetic spectrum can be identified as a resource for the designer, as well as for the manufacturer, from two complementary points of view: first, because it is a good in great demand by many different kind of applications; second, because despite its scarce availability, it may be advantageous to use more spectrum than necessary. This is the case of Spread-Spectrum Systems, those systems in which the transmitted signal is spread over a wide frequency band, much wider, in fact, than the minimum bandwidth required to transmit the information being sent. Part I of this dissertation deals with Spread-Spectrum Clock Generators (SSCG) aiming at reducing Electro Magnetic Interference (EMI) of clock signals in integrated circuits (IC) design. In particular, the modulation of the clock and the consequent spreading of its spectrum are obtained through a random modulating signal outputted by a chaotic map, i.e. a discrete-time dynamical system showing chaotic behavior. The advantages offered by this kind of modulation are highlighted. Three different prototypes of chaos-based SSCG are presented in all their aspects: design, simulation, and post-fabrication measurements. The third one, operating at a frequency equal to 3GHz, aims at being applied to Serial ATA, standard de facto for fast data transmission to and from Hard Disk Drives. The most extreme example of spread-spectrum signalling is the emerging ultra-wideband (UWB) technology, which proposes the use of large sections of the radio spectrum at low amplitudes to transmit high-bandwidth digital data. In part II of the dissertation, two UWB applications are presented, both dealing with the advantages as well as with the challenges of a wide-band system, namely: a chaos-based sequence generation method for reducing Multiple Access Interference (MAI) in Direct Sequence UWB Wireless-Sensor-Networks (WSNs), and design and simulations of a Low-Noise Amplifier (LNA) for impulse radio UWB. This latter topic was studied during a study-abroad period in collaboration with Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands.

Architectures and design patterns for functional design of logic control and diagnostics in industrial automation

Recently in most of the industrial automation process an ever increasing degree of automation has been observed. This increasing is motivated by the higher requirement of systems with great performance in terms of quality of products/services generated, productivity, efficiency and low costs in the design, realization and maintenance. This trend in the growth of complex automation systems is rapidly spreading over automated manufacturing systems (AMS), where the integration of the mechanical and electronic technology, typical of the Mechatronics, is merging with other technologies such as Informatics and the communication networks. An AMS is a very complex system that can be thought constituted by a set of flexible working stations, one or more transportation systems. To understand how this machine are important in our society let considerate that every day most of us use bottles of water or soda, buy product in box like food or cigarets and so on. Another important consideration from its complexity derive from the fact that the the consortium of machine producers has estimated around 350 types of manufacturing machine. A large number of manufacturing machine industry are presented in Italy and notably packaging machine industry,in particular a great concentration of this kind of industry is located in Bologna area; for this reason the Bologna area is called “packaging valley”. Usually, the various parts of the AMS interact among them in a concurrent and asynchronous way, and coordinate the parts of the machine to obtain a desiderated overall behaviour is an hard task. Often, this is the case in large scale systems, organized in a modular and distributed manner. Even if the success of a modern AMS from a functional and behavioural point of view is still to attribute to the design choices operated in the definition of the mechanical structure and electrical electronic architecture, the system that governs the control of the plant is becoming crucial, because of the large number of duties associated to it. Apart from the activity inherent to the automation of themachine cycles, the supervisory system is called to perform other main functions such as: emulating the behaviour of traditional mechanical members thus allowing a drastic constructive simplification of the machine and a crucial functional flexibility; dynamically adapting the control strategies according to the different productive needs and to the different operational scenarios; obtaining a high quality of the final product through the verification of the correctness of the processing; addressing the operator devoted to themachine to promptly and carefully take the actions devoted to establish or restore the optimal operating conditions; managing in real time information on diagnostics, as a support of the maintenance operations of the machine. The kind of facilities that designers can directly find on themarket, in terms of software component libraries provides in fact an adequate support as regard the implementation of either top-level or bottom-level functionalities, typically pertaining to the domains of user-friendly HMIs, closed-loop regulation and motion control, fieldbus-based interconnection of remote smart devices. What is still lacking is a reference framework comprising a comprehensive set of highly reusable logic control components that, focussing on the cross-cutting functionalities characterizing the automation domain, may help the designers in the process of modelling and structuring their applications according to the specific needs. Historically, the design and verification process for complex automated industrial systems is performed in empirical way, without a clear distinction between functional and technological-implementation concepts and without a systematic method to organically deal with the complete system. Traditionally, in the field of analog and digital control design and verification through formal and simulation tools have been adopted since a long time ago, at least for multivariable and/or nonlinear controllers for complex time-driven dynamics as in the fields of vehicles, aircrafts, robots, electric drives and complex power electronics equipments. Moving to the field of logic control, typical for industrial manufacturing automation, the design and verification process is approached in a completely different way, usually very “unstructured”. No clear distinction between functions and implementations, between functional architectures and technological architectures and platforms is considered. Probably this difference is due to the different “dynamical framework”of logic control with respect to analog/digital control. As a matter of facts, in logic control discrete-events dynamics replace time-driven dynamics; hence most of the formal and mathematical tools of analog/digital control cannot be directly migrated to logic control to enlighten the distinction between functions and implementations. In addition, in the common view of application technicians, logic control design is strictly connected to the adopted implementation technology (relays in the past, software nowadays), leading again to a deep confusion among functional view and technological view. In Industrial automation software engineering, concepts as modularity, encapsulation, composability and reusability are strongly emphasized and profitably realized in the so-calledobject-oriented methodologies. Industrial automation is receiving lately this approach, as testified by some IEC standards IEC 611313, IEC 61499 which have been considered in commercial products only recently. On the other hand, in the scientific and technical literature many contributions have been already proposed to establish a suitable modelling framework for industrial automation. During last years it was possible to note a considerable growth in the exploitation of innovative concepts and technologies from ICT world in industrial automation systems. For what concerns the logic control design, Model Based Design (MBD) is being imported in industrial automation from software engineering field. Another key-point in industrial automated systems is the growth of requirements in terms of availability, reliability and safety for technological systems. In other words, the control system should not only deal with the nominal behaviour, but should also deal with other important duties, such as diagnosis and faults isolations, recovery and safety management. Indeed, together with high performance, in complex systems fault occurrences increase. This is a consequence of the fact that, as it typically occurs in reliable mechatronic systems, in complex systems such as AMS, together with reliable mechanical elements, an increasing number of electronic devices are also present, that are more vulnerable by their own nature. The diagnosis problem and the faults isolation in a generic dynamical system consists in the design of an elaboration unit that, appropriately processing the inputs and outputs of the dynamical system, is also capable of detecting incipient faults on the plant devices, reconfiguring the control system so as to guarantee satisfactory performance. The designer should be able to formally verify the product, certifying that, in its final implementation, it will perform itsrequired function guarantying the desired level of reliability and safety; the next step is that of preventing faults and eventually reconfiguring the control system so that faults are tolerated. On this topic an important improvement to formal verification of logic control, fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control results derive from Discrete Event Systems theory. The aimof this work is to define a design pattern and a control architecture to help the designer of control logic in industrial automated systems. The work starts with a brief discussion on main characteristics and description of industrial automated systems on Chapter 1. In Chapter 2 a survey on the state of the software engineering paradigm applied to industrial automation is discussed. Chapter 3 presentes a architecture for industrial automated systems based on the new concept of Generalized Actuator showing its benefits, while in Chapter 4 this architecture is refined using a novel entity, the Generalized Device in order to have a better reusability and modularity of the control logic. In Chapter 5 a new approach will be present based on Discrete Event Systems for the problemof software formal verification and an active fault tolerant control architecture using online diagnostic. Finally conclusive remarks and some ideas on new directions to explore are given. In Appendix A are briefly reported some concepts and results about Discrete Event Systems which should help the reader in understanding some crucial points in chapter 5; while in Appendix B an overview on the experimental testbed of the Laboratory of Automation of University of Bologna, is reported to validated the approach presented in chapter 3, chapter 4 and chapter 5. In Appendix C some components model used in chapter 5 for formal verification are reported.

A Phase Space Box-counting based Method for Arrhythmia Prediction from Electrocardiogram Time Series

Arrhythmia is one kind of cardiovascular diseases that give rise to the number of deaths and potentially yields immedicable danger. Arrhythmia is a life threatening condition originating from disorganized propagation of electrical signals in heart resulting in desynchronization among different chambers of the heart. Fundamentally, the synchronization process means that the phase relationship of electrical activities between the chambers remains coherent, maintaining a constant phase difference over time. If desynchronization occurs due to arrhythmia, the coherent phase relationship breaks down resulting in chaotic rhythm affecting the regular pumping mechanism of heart. This phenomenon was explored by using the phase space reconstruction technique which is a standard analysis technique of time series data generated from nonlinear dynamical system. In this project a novel index is presented for predicting the onset of ventricular arrhythmias. Analysis of continuously captured long-term ECG data recordings was conducted up to the onset of arrhythmia by the phase space reconstruction method, obtaining 2-dimensional images, analysed by the box counting method. The method was tested using the ECG data set of three different kinds including normal (NR), Ventricular Tachycardia (VT), Ventricular Fibrillation (VF), extracted from the Physionet ECG database. Statistical measures like mean (μ), standard deviation (σ) and coefficient of variation (σ/μ) for the box-counting in phase space diagrams are derived for a sliding window of 10 beats of ECG signal. From the results of these statistical analyses, a threshold was derived as an upper bound of Coefficient of Variation (CV) for box-counting of ECG phase portraits which is capable of reliably predicting the impeding arrhythmia long before its actual occurrence. As future work of research, it was planned to validate this prediction tool over a wider population of patients affected by different kind of arrhythmia, like atrial fibrillation, bundle and brunch block, and set different thresholds for them, in order to confirm its clinical applicability.

On the recurrence of random walks in Lévy random environments

This thesis investigates one-dimensional random walks in random environment whose transition probabilities might have an infinite variance. The ergodicity of the dynamical system ''from the point of view of the particle'' is proved under the assumptions of transitivity and existence of an absolutely continuous steady state on the space of the environments. We show that, if the average of the local drift over the environments is summable and null, then the RWRE is recurrent. We provide an example satisfying all the hypotheses.

Differenzielles Lehren und Lernen: eine Kritik

Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich kritisch mit dem von Wolfgang Schöllhorn seit 1999 propagierten Ansatz des differenziellen Lehrens und Lernens. Nach einer Einordnung in die historische bewegungswissenschaftliche Debatte um den Informationsverarbeitungsansatz und die dynamische Systemtheorie zeigen wir, dass die von Schöllhorn behaupteten Praxiskonsequenzen theoretisch nicht fundiert sind, dass die Abgrenzung zu konkurrierenden Lerntheorien lücken- und fehlerhaft ausfällt, dass die präsentierte empirische Befundlage auf höchst wackeligen Füßen steht und dass der Ansatz sich auch aus Praxissicht als nicht tragfähig erweist. Mit Blick auf fatale Konsequenzen sowohl für die Sportpraxis als auch für die Sportwissenschaft empfehlen wir, in zukünftigen Publikationen zum differenziellen Lernen auf fehlerhafte und theoretisch wie empirisch unbegründete Praxisempfehlungen zu verzichten.

Modelización de series temporales complejas: de las redes de telecomunicación a los mercados financieros

Este trabajo aborda el problema de modelizar sistemas din´amicos reales a partir del estudio de sus series temporales, usando una formulaci´on est´andar que pretende ser una abstracci´on universal de los sistemas din´amicos, independientemente de su naturaleza determinista, estoc´astica o h´ıbrida. Se parte de modelizaciones separadas de sistemas deterministas por un lado y estoc´asticos por otro, para converger finalmente en un modelo h´ıbrido que permite estudiar sistemas gen´ericos mixtos, esto es, que presentan una combinaci´on de comportamiento determinista y aleatorio. Este modelo consta de dos componentes, uno determinista consistente en una ecuaci´on en diferencias, obtenida a partir de un estudio de autocorrelaci´on, y otro estoc´astico que modeliza el error cometido por el primero. El componente estoc´astico es un generador universal de distribuciones de probabilidad, basado en un proceso compuesto de variables aleatorias, uniformemente distribuidas en un intervalo variable en el tiempo. Este generador universal es deducido en la tesis a partir de una nueva teor´ıa sobre la oferta y la demanda de un recurso gen´erico. El modelo resultante puede formularse conceptualmente como una entidad con tres elementos fundamentales: un motor generador de din´amica determinista, una fuente interna de ruido generadora de incertidumbre y una exposici´on al entorno que representa las interacciones del sistema real con el mundo exterior. En las aplicaciones estos tres elementos se ajustan en base al hist´orico de las series temporales del sistema din´amico. Una vez ajustados sus componentes, el modelo se comporta de una forma adaptativa tomando como inputs los nuevos valores de las series temporales del sistema y calculando predicciones sobre su comportamiento futuro. Cada predicci´on se presenta como un intervalo dentro del cual cualquier valor es equipro- bable, teniendo probabilidad nula cualquier valor externo al intervalo. De esta forma el modelo computa el comportamiento futuro y su nivel de incertidumbre en base al estado actual del sistema. Se ha aplicado el modelo en esta tesis a sistemas muy diferentes mostrando ser muy flexible para afrontar el estudio de campos de naturaleza dispar. El intercambio de tr´afico telef´onico entre operadores de telefon´ıa, la evoluci´on de mercados financieros y el flujo de informaci´on entre servidores de Internet son estudiados en profundidad en la tesis. Todos estos sistemas son modelizados de forma exitosa con un mismo lenguaje, a pesar de tratarse de sistemas f´ısicos totalmente distintos. El estudio de las redes de telefon´ıa muestra que los patrones de tr´afico telef´onico presentan una fuerte pseudo-periodicidad semanal contaminada con una gran cantidad de ruido, sobre todo en el caso de llamadas internacionales. El estudio de los mercados financieros muestra por su parte que la naturaleza fundamental de ´estos es aleatoria con un rango de comportamiento relativamente acotado. Una parte de la tesis se dedica a explicar algunas de las manifestaciones emp´ıricas m´as importantes en los mercados financieros como son los “fat tails”, “power laws” y “volatility clustering”. Por ´ultimo se demuestra que la comunicaci´on entre servidores de Internet tiene, al igual que los mercados financieros, una componente subyacente totalmente estoc´astica pero de comportamiento bastante “d´ocil”, siendo esta docilidad m´as acusada a medida que aumenta la distancia entre servidores. Dos aspectos son destacables en el modelo, su adaptabilidad y su universalidad. El primero es debido a que, una vez ajustados los par´ametros generales, el modelo se “alimenta” de los valores observables del sistema y es capaz de calcular con ellos comportamientos futuros. A pesar de tener unos par´ametros fijos, la variabilidad en los observables que sirven de input al modelo llevan a una gran riqueza de ouputs posibles. El segundo aspecto se debe a la formulaci´on gen´erica del modelo h´ıbrido y a que sus par´ametros se ajustan en base a manifestaciones externas del sistema en estudio, y no en base a sus caracter´ısticas f´ısicas. Estos factores hacen que el modelo pueda utilizarse en gran variedad de campos. Por ´ultimo, la tesis propone en su parte final otros campos donde se han obtenido ´exitos preliminares muy prometedores como son la modelizaci´on del riesgo financiero, los algoritmos de routing en redes de telecomunicaci´on y el cambio clim´atico. Abstract This work faces the problem of modeling dynamical systems based on the study of its time series, by using a standard language that aims to be an universal abstraction of dynamical systems, irrespective of their deterministic, stochastic or hybrid nature. Deterministic and stochastic models are developed separately to be merged subsequently into a hybrid model, which allows the study of generic systems, that is to say, those having both deterministic and random behavior. This model is a combination of two different components. One of them is deterministic and consisting in an equation in differences derived from an auto-correlation study and the other is stochastic and models the errors made by the deterministic one. The stochastic component is an universal generator of probability distributions based on a process consisting in random variables distributed uniformly within an interval varying in time. This universal generator is derived in the thesis from a new theory of offer and demand for a generic resource. The resulting model can be visualized as an entity with three fundamental elements: an engine generating deterministic dynamics, an internal source of noise generating uncertainty and an exposure to the environment which depicts the interactions between the real system and the external world. In the applications these three elements are adjusted to the history of the time series from the dynamical system. Once its components have been adjusted, the model behaves in an adaptive way by using the new time series values from the system as inputs and calculating predictions about its future behavior. Every prediction is provided as an interval, where any inner value is equally probable while all outer ones have null probability. So, the model computes the future behavior and its level of uncertainty based on the current state of the system. The model is applied to quite different systems in this thesis, showing to be very flexible when facing the study of fields with diverse nature. The exchange of traffic between telephony operators, the evolution of financial markets and the flow of information between servers on the Internet are deeply studied in this thesis. All these systems are successfully modeled by using the same “language”, in spite the fact that they are systems physically radically different. The study of telephony networks shows that the traffic patterns are strongly weekly pseudo-periodic but mixed with a great amount of noise, specially in the case of international calls. It is proved that the underlying nature of financial markets is random with a moderate range of variability. A part of this thesis is devoted to explain some of the most important empirical observations in financial markets, such as “fat tails”, “power laws” and “volatility clustering”. Finally it is proved that the communication between two servers on the Internet has, as in the case of financial markets, an underlaying random dynamics but with a narrow range of variability, being this lack of variability more marked as the distance between servers is increased. Two aspects of the model stand out as being the most important: its adaptability and its universality. The first one is due to the fact that once the general parameters have been adjusted , the model is “fed” on the observable manifestations of the system in order to calculate its future behavior. Despite the fact that the model has fixed parameters the variability in the observable manifestations of the system, which are used as inputs of the model, lead to a great variability in the possible outputs. The second aspect is due to the general “language” used in the formulation of the hybrid model and to the fact that its parameters are adjusted based on external manifestations of the system under study instead of its physical characteristics. These factors made the model suitable to be used in great variety of fields. Lastly, this thesis proposes other fields in which preliminary and promising results have been obtained, such as the modeling of financial risk, the development of routing algorithms for telecommunication networks and the assessment of climate change.

Structure of intermediate shocks in collisionsless anisotropic Hall-magnetohydrodynamics plasma models

The existence of discontinuities within the double-adiabatic Hall-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model is discussed. These solutions are transitional layers where some of the plasma properties change from one equilibrium state to another. Under the assumption of traveling wave solutions with velocity C and propagation angle θ with respect to the ambient magnetic field, the Hall-MHD model reduces to a dynamical system and the waves are heteroclinic orbits joining two different fixed points. The analysis of the fixed points rules out the existence of rotational discontinuities. Simple considerations about the Hamiltonian nature of the system show that, unlike dissipative models, the intermediate shock waves are organized in branches in parameter space, i.e., they occur if a given relationship between θ and C is satisfied. Electron-polarized (ion-polarized) shock waves exhibit, in addition to a reversal of the magnetic field component tangential to the shock front, a maximum (minimum) of the magnetic field amplitude. The jumps of the magnetic field and the relative specific volume between the downstream and the upstream states as a function of the plasma properties are presented. The organization in parameter space of localized structures including in the model the influence of finite Larmor radius is discussed

Glucose-Insulin regulator for type 1 diabetes using high order neural networks

In this paper a Glucose-Insulin regulator for Type 1 Diabetes using artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed. This is done using a discrete recurrent high order neural network in order to identify and control a nonlinear dynamical system which represents the pancreas? beta-cells behavior of a virtual patient. The ANN which reproduces and identifies the dynamical behavior system, is configured as series parallel and trained on line using the extended Kalman filter algorithm to achieve a quickly convergence identification in silico. The control objective is to regulate the glucose-insulin level under different glucose inputs and is based on a nonlinear neural block control law. A safety block is included between the control output signal and the virtual patient with type 1 diabetes mellitus. Simulations include a period of three days. Simulation results are compared during the overnight fasting period in Open-Loop (OL) versus Closed- Loop (CL). Tests in Semi-Closed-Loop (SCL) are made feedforward in order to give information to the control algorithm. We conclude the controller is able to drive the glucose to target in overnight periods and the feedforward is necessary to control the postprandial period.

Human Factor in Resilience Systems

This paper shows the importance of a holistic comprehension of the Earth as a living planet, where man inhabits and is exposed to environmental incidences of different nature. The aim of the paper here summarized is a reflection on all these concepts and scientific considerations related to the important role of men in the handling of natural hazards. Our Planet is an unstable and dynamical system highly sensitive to initial conditions, as proposed by Chaos theory (González-Miranda 2004); it is a complex organic whole, which responds to minimal variations which can affect several natural phenomena such as plate tectonics, solar flares, fluid turbulences, landscape formation, forest fires, growth and migration of populations and biological evolution. This is known as the “butterfly effect” (Lorenz 1972), which means that a small change of the system causes a chain of events leading to large-scale unpredictable consequences. The aim of this work is dwelling on the importance of the knowledge of these natural and catastrophic geological, biological and human systems so much sensible to equilibrium conditions, to prevent, avoid and mend their effects, and to face them in a resilient way

Ergodic theorems along sequences and Hardy fields.

Let a(x) be a real function with a regular growth as x --> infinity. [The precise technical assumption is that a(x) belongs to a Hardy field.] We establish sufficient growth conditions on a(x) so that the sequence ([a(n)])(infinity)(n=1) is a good averaging sequence in L2 for the pointwise ergodic theorem. A sequence (an) of positive integers is a good averaging sequence in L2 for the pointwise ergodic theorem if in any dynamical system (Omega, Sigma, m, T) for f [symbol, see text] in L2(Omega) the averages [equation, see text] converge for almost every omicron in. Our result implies that sequences like ([ndelta]), where delta > 1 and not an integer, ([n log n]), and ([n2/log n]) are good averaging sequences for L2. In fact, all the sequences we examine will turn out to be good averaging for Lp, p > 1; and even for L log L. We will also establish necessary and sufficient growth conditions on a(x) so that the sequence ([a(n)]) is good averaging for mean convergence. Note that for some a(x) (e.g., a(x) = log2 x), ([a(n)]) may be good for mean convergence without being good for pointwise convergence.

Modelos baseados em agentes aplicados à dinâmica de preços do mercado imobiliário

Um dos aspectos regulatórios fundamentais para o mercado imobiliário no Brasil são os limites para obtenção de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Esses limites podem ser definidos de forma a aumentar ou reduzir a oferta de crédito neste mercado, alterando o comportamento dos seus agentes e, com isso, o preço de mercado dos imóveis. Neste trabalho, propomos um modelo de formação de preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro com base no comportamento dos agentes que o compõem. Os agentes vendedores têm comportamento heterogêneo e são influenciados pela demanda histórica, enquanto que os agentes compradores têm o seu comportamento determinado pela disponibilidade de crédito. Esta disponibilidade de crédito, por sua vez, é definida pelos limites para concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação. Verificamos que o processo markoviano que descreve preço de mercado converge para um sistema dinâmico determinístico quando o número de agentes aumenta, e analisamos o comportamento deste sistema dinâmico. Mostramos qual é a família de variáveis aleatórias que representa o comportamento dos agentes vendedores de forma que o sistema apresente um preço de equilíbrio não trivial, condizente com a realidade. Verificamos ainda que o preço de equilíbrio depende não só das regras de concessão de financiamento no Sistema Financeiro de Habitação, como também do preço de reserva dos compradores e da memória e da sensibilidade dos vendedores a alterações na demanda. A memória e a sensibilidade dos vendedores podem levar a oscilações de preços acima ou abaixo do preço de equilíbrio (típicas de processos de formação de bolhas); ou até mesmo a uma bifurcação de Neimark-Sacker, quando o sistema apresenta dinâmica oscilatória estável.

Crop Phenology Estimation Using a Multitemporal Model and a Kalman Filtering Strategy

In this letter, a new approach for crop phenology estimation with remote sensing is presented. The proposed methodology is aimed to exploit tools from a dynamical system context. From a temporal sequence of images, a geometrical model is derived, which allows us to translate this temporal domain into the estimation problem. The evolution model in state space is obtained through dimensional reduction by a principal component analysis, defining the state variables, of the observations. Then, estimation is achieved by combining the generated model with actual samples in an optimal way using a Kalman filter. As a proof of concept, an example with results obtained with this approach over rice fields by exploiting stacks of TerraSAR-X dual polarization images is shown.