Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Survival of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in the environment

A study was conducted to investigate the persistence of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) in the environment. Virus was impregnated onto two carrier materials (cotton tape and bovine liver) and exposed to environmental conditions on pasture during autumn in New Zealand. Samples were collected after 1, 10, 44 and 91 days and the viability of the virus was determined by oral inoculation of susceptible 11- to 14-week-old New Zealand White rabbits. Evidence of RHDV infection was based on clinical and pathological signs and/or seroconversion to RHDV. Virus impregnated on cotton tape was viable at 10 days of exposure but not at 44 days, while in bovine liver it was still viable at 91 days. The results of this study suggest that RHDV in animal tissues such as rabbit carcasses can survive for at least 3 months in the field, while virus exposed directly to environmental conditions, such as dried excreted virus, is viable for a period of less than I month. Survival of RHDV in the tissues of dead animals could, therefore, provide a persistent reservoir of virus, which could initiate new outbreaks of disease after extended delays.

Sequence variation in the Newcastle disease virus genome

Full-length genome sequences of five virulent and five avirulent strains of Newcastle disease virus isolated between 1998 and 2002 in Victoria and New South Wales, Australia were determined. Comparisons between these strains revealed that coding sequence variability in the haemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN), matrix (M) and phosphoprotein (P) gene sequences appeared to be more variable than in the fusion (F), nucleocapsid (N) and RNA dependent-RNA replicase (L) genes. Sequence analysis of a number of other isolates made during the recent virulent NDV outbreaks, also identified the presence of a number of variants with altered F gene cleavage sites, which resulted in altered biological properties of those viruses. Quasispecies analysis of a number of field isolates indicated the presence of virulent virus in one particular isolate. Gene sequence analysis of the progenitor virus isolated in 1998 showed very little sequence variation when compared to that of a progenitor-like virus isolated in 2001 demonstrating that in the field. viral genome sequence variation appears to be biologically restricted to that of a consensus sequence. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deduced amino acid sequences surrounding the fusion glycoprotein cleavage site and of the carboxyl-terminus of haemagglutinin-neuraminidase protein of the avirulent thermostable vaccine strain I-2 of Newcastle disease virus

A single-tube RT-PCR technique generated a 387 bp or 300 bp cDNA amplicon covering the F-0 cleavage site or the carboxyl (C)-terminus of the HN gene, respectively, of Newcastle disease virus (NDV) strain 1-2. Sequence analysis was used to deduce the amino acid sequences of the cleavage site of F protein and the C-terminus of HN protein, which were then compared with sequences for other NDV strains. The cleavage site of NDV strain 1-2 had a sequence Motif of (112)RKQGRLIG(119), consistent with an avirulent phenotype. Nucleotide sequencing and deduction of amino acids at the C-terminus of HN revealed that strain 1-2 had a 7-amino-acid extension (VEILKDGVREARSSR). This differs from the virulent viruses that caused outbreaks of Newcastle disease in Australia in the 1930s and 1990s, which have HN extensions of 0 and 9 amino acids, respectively. Amino acid sequence analyses of the F and HN genes of strain 1-2 confirmed its avirulent nature and its Australian origin.

Temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus infection in a low-density population of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in New Zealand

A longitudinal capture-mark-recapture study was conducted to determine the temporal dynamics of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) in a European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) population of low to moderate density on sand-hill country in the lower North Island of New Zealand. A combination of sampling ( trapping and radio-tracking) and diagnostic (cELISA, PCR and isotype ELISA) methods was employed to obtain data weekly from May 1998 until June 2001. Although rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus ( RHDV) infection was detected in the study population in all 3 years, disease epidemics were evident only in the late summer or autumn months in 1999 and 2001. Overall, 20% of 385 samples obtained from adult animals older than 11 weeks were seropositive. An RHD outbreak in 1999 contributed to an estimated population decline of 26%. A second RHD epidemic in February 2001 was associated with a population decline of 52% over the subsequent month. Following the outbreaks, the seroprevalence in adult survivors was between 40% and 50%. During 2000, no deaths from RHDV were confirmed and mortalities were predominantly attributed to predation. Influx of seronegative immigrants was greatest in the 1999 and 2001 breeding seasons, and preceded the RHD epidemics in those years. Our data suggest that RHD epidemics require the population immunity level to fall below a threshold where propagation of infection can be maintained through the population.

Prevalence and Incidence of Black Band Disease of Scleractinian Corals in the Kepulauan Seribu Region of Indonesia

Black band disease (BBD) is the oldest recognised disease associated with scleractinian corals. However, despite this, few BBD surveys have been conducted in the Indonesian archipelago, one of the world’s hot spots for coral diversity. In this study, we show that BBD was recorded in the reefs of Kepulauan Seribu, Indonesia, at the time of surveying. The disease was found to mainly infect corals of the genus Montipora. In some instances, upwards of 177 colonies (31.64%) were found to be infected at specific sites. Prevalence of the disease ranged from 0.31% to 31.64% of Montipora sp. colonies throughout the archipelago. Although BBD was found at all sites, lower frequencies were
associated with sites closest to the mainland (17.99 km), as well as those that were furthest away (63.65 km). Despite there being no linear relationship between distance from major population centers and BBD incidence, high incidences of this disease were associated with sites characterized by higher
levels of light intensity. Furthermore, surveys revealed that outbreaks peaked during the transitional period between the dry and rainy seasons. Therefore, we suggest that future surveys for disease prevalence in this region of Indonesia should focus on these transitory periods.

Avian Cholera emergence in Arctic-nesting northern Common Eiders: using community-based, participatory surveillance to delineate disease outbreak patterns and predict transmission risk

Emerging infectious diseases are a growing concern in wildlife conservation. Documenting outbreak patterns and determining the ecological drivers of transmission risk are fundamental to predicting disease spread and assessing potential impacts on population viability. However, evaluating disease in wildlife populations requires expansive surveillance networks that often do not exist in remote and developing areas. Here, we describe the results of a community-based research initiative conducted in collaboration with indigenous harvesters, the Inuit, in response to a new series of Avian Cholera outbreaks affecting Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima) and other comingling species in the Canadian Arctic. Avian Cholera is a virulent disease of birds caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida. Common Eiders are a valuable subsistence resource for Inuit, who hunt the birds for meat and visit breeding colonies during the summer to collect eggs and feather down for use in clothing and blankets. We compiled the observations of harvesters about the growing epidemic and with their assistance undertook field investigation of 131 colonies distributed over >1200 km of coastline in the affected region. Thirteen locations were identified where Avian Cholera outbreaks have occurred since 2004. Mortality rates ranged from 1% to 43% of the local breeding population at these locations. Using a species-habitat model (Maxent), we determined that the distribution of outbreak events has not been random within the study area and that colony size, vegetation cover, and a measure of host crowding in shared wetlands were significantly correlated to outbreak risk. In addition, outbreak locations have been spatially structured with respect to hypothesized introduction foci and clustered along the migration corridor linking Arctic breeding areas with wintering areas in Atlantic Canada. At present, Avian Cholera remains a localized threat to Common Eider populations in the Arctic; however expanded, community-based surveillance will be required to track disease spread.

An assessment of Pythium spp. associated with soft rot disease of ginger (Zingiber officinale) in Queensland, Australia

In Australia, Pythium soft rot (PSR) outbreaks caused by P. myriotylum were reported in 2009 and since then this disease has remained as a major concern for the ginger industry. From 2012 to 2015, a number of Pythium spp. were isolated from ginger rhizomes and soil from farms affected by PSR disease and assessed for their pathogenicity on ginger. In this study, 11 distinct Pythium spp. were recovered from ginger farms in Queensland, Australia and species identification and confirmation were based on morphology, growth rate and ITS sequences. These Pythium spp. when tested showed different levels of aggressiveness on excised ginger rhizome. P. aphanidemartum, P. deliense, P. myriotylum, P. splendens, P. spinosum and P. ultimum were the most pathogenic when assessed in vitro on an array of plant species. However, P. myriotylum was the only pathogen, which was capable of inducing PSR symptoms on ginger at a temperature range from 20 to 35 °C. Whereas, P. aphanidermatum only attacked and induced PSR on ginger at 30 to 35 °C in pot trials. This is the first report of P. aphanidermatum inducing PSR of ginger in Australia at high temperatures. Only P. oligandrum and P. perplexum, which had been recovered only from soils and not plant tissue, appeared non-pathogenic in all assays.

In vitro characterization of the antiviral activity of fucoidan from Cladosiphon okamuranus against Newcastle Disease Virus

Newcastle Disease Virus (NDV) causes a serious infectious disease in birds that results in severe losses in the worldwide poultry industry. Despite vaccination, NDV outbreaks have increased the necessity of alternative prevention and control measures. Several recent studies focused on antiviral compounds obtained from natural resources. Many extracts from marine organisms have been isolated and tested for pharmacological purposes, and their antiviral activity has been demonstrated in vitro and in vivo. Fucoidan is a sulfated polysaccharide present in the cell wall matrix of brown algae that has been demonstrated to inhibit certain enveloped viruses with low toxicity. This study evaluated the potential antiviral activity and the mechanism of action of fucoidan from Cladosiphon okamuranus against NDV in the Vero cell line

Ebola virus disease 2014

Ebola virus disease was irst described in 1976 originating from the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Since then, Ebola virus has become an important public health threat in Africa, and now it is of great concern worldwide due to the recent outbreaks (9216 cases with 4555 deaths up to October 20th, 2014), and it is so far the largest and deadliest recorded in history. Five Ebola virus species have been identiied (including Zaire, Sudan, Ivory Coast, Reston, and Bundibugyo Ebola virus), and four of them have proved to be highly pathogenic for both human and non-human primates, causing viral hemorrhagic fever with case fatality rates of up to 90%, for which no approved therapeutics or vaccines are currently available. Ebola virus infections are characterized by immune suppression and a systemic inlammatory response that causes impairment of the vascular, coagulation, and immune systems, leading to multiorgan failure and shock, and thus, in some ways, resembling septic shock. The major affected countries, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Nigeria, have been struggling to contain and to mitigate the outbreak. Gene sequencing of the 2014 virus (2014WA) outbreak has demonstrated 98% homology with the Zaire Ebola virus, with a 49% case fatality ratio across the affected countries. In this review the characteristics of the viruses, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment, and the cases reported in health care workers (HCW) are described, as well as a summary of outbreaks of the virus since its discovery, including these last two outbreaks in Africa.

Genome sequence of Lactococcus garvieae 8831, isolated from rainbow trout lactococcosis outbreaks in Spain

Lactococcus garvieae is the etiological agent of lactococcosis, one of the most important disease threats to the sustainability of the rainbow trout farming industry. Here, we present the draft genome sequence of Lactococcus garvieae strain 8831, isolated from diseased rainbow trout, which is composed of 2,087,276 bp with a G+C content of 38%.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.