Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Exploration of receptor binding of Bacillus thuringiensis toxins

Wild type and mutant toxins of Bacillus thuringiensis delta-endotoxins were examined for their binding to midgut brush border membrane vesicles (BBMV). CryIAa, CryIAb, and CryIAc were examined for their binding to Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) BBMV. The binding of CryIAa and CryIAc was directly correlated with their toxicity, while CryIAb was observed to have lower binding than expected from its toxicity. The latter observation confirms the observation of Wolfersberger (1990). The "rule" of reciprocity of binding and toxicity is apparently obeyed by CryIAa and CryIAc, but broken by CryIAb on L. dispar. Alanine substitutions were made in several positions of the putative loops of CryIAa to test the hypothesis that the loops are intimately involved in binding to the receptor. The mutant toxins showed minor shifts in heterologous binding to Bombyx mori BBMV, but not enough to conclude that the residues chosen play critical roles in receptor binding.

The role of basalt replenishment in the generation of basaltic andesites of the ongoing activity at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica: evidence from clinopyroxene and spinel

The bulk composition of magma erupted from Volcan Arenal has remained nearly constant (SiO2 = 53.6-54.9 wt%; MgO = 5.0-4.5 wt%) during almost 30 years of continuous activity (1969-1996). None the less, clinopyroxene (cpx) phenocrysts and their spinel inclusions record a much more complex open-system evolution in which steady-state production of the erupted basaltic andesitic magma is linked to episodic injections of basalt into Arenal's magma conduit/reservoir system. High-resolution major element zoning profiles (electron microprobe) on a large number of phenocrysts (>14,000 analyses), tied to back-scattered electron (BSE) images, have been used to assess the compositional characteristics of the magmatic end members as well as the timing and dynamics of magma replenishment events. No two cpx phenocrysts have exactly the same zoning profile. The vast majority of our analyses record the crystallization of cpx (Cr2O3 < 0.12 wt%; Mg# = 65-79; Al/Ti = 2-7) from a liquid comparable to or more evolved than erupted magma compositions. However, half of all cpx grains are cored by high-Cr cpx (Cr2O3 = 0.2-0.72 wt%) or contain similar basaltic compositions as abrupt growth bands in phenocrysts with and without high-Cr cores; phenocrysts with high-Cr cpx occur throughout the ongoing activity. In a few cases, high-Cr cpx occurs very near the outer margin of the grain without an apparent growth hiatus, particularly in 1968/69 and 1992/93. The main conclusions are: (1) all basaltic andesitic lavas erupted at Arenal during the ongoing activity that began in July, 1968, are the products of magma mixing, (2) clinopyroxenes record multiple replenishment events of basaltic magma in contrast to the near constancy of erupted bulk compositions, (3) some phenocrysts preserve records of multiple interactions with basaltic magmas requiring magmatic processes to operate on time-scales shorter than residence times of some phenocrysts, (4) multiple occurrences of clinopyroxene with high-Cr rims suggest that basalt replenishment events have occurred with sub-decadal frequency and may predate eruption by months or less. From this we infer that Arenal volcano is underlain by a continuously active, small-volume magmatic reservoir maintained in quasi-steady state by basalt recharge over several decades. The monotony of erupting Arenal magmas implies that fractionation, recharge, ascent, and eruption are well balanced in order for magmas to be essentially uniform while containing phenocrysts with vastly different growth histories at the time of eruption.

On the use of principal components in contemporany population genetics: a case study

In human Population Genetics, routine applications of principal component techniques are oftenrequired. Population biologists make widespread use of certain discrete classifications of humansamples into haplotypes, the monophyletic units of phylogenetic trees constructed from severalsingle nucleotide bimorphisms hierarchically ordered. Compositional frequencies of the haplotypesare recorded within the different samples. Principal component techniques are then required as adimension-reducing strategy to bring the dimension of the problem to a manageable level, say two,to allow for graphical analysis.Population biologists at large are not aware of the special features of compositional data and normally make use of the crude covariance of compositional relative frequencies to construct principalcomponents. In this short note we present our experience with using traditional linear principalcomponents or compositional principal components based on logratios, with reference to a specificdataset

Inverse relation between levels of anti-oxidized-LDL antibodies and eicosapentanoic acid (EPA).

Oxidative modification of LDL is thought to play an important role in the development of atherosclerosis. Susceptibility of LDL to peroxidation may partly depend on the compositional characteristics of the antioxidant and fatty acid content. The aim of this study was to examine the association between levels of antibodies to oxidized LDL and the various serum fatty acids in women. A total of 465 women aged 18-65 years were selected randomly from the adult population census of Pizarra, a town in southern Spain. Measurement of anti-oxidized-LDL was done by ELISA and the fatty acid composition of serum phospholipids was determined by GC. The levels of anti-oxidized-LDL antibodies were significantly related with age (r - 0.341, P < 0.001), BMI (r - 0.239, P < 0.001), waist:hip ratio (r - 0.285, P < 0.001), glucose (r - 0.208, P < 0.001), cholesterol (r - 0.243, P < 0.001), LDL-cholesterol (r - 0.185, P = 0.002), EPA (r - 0.159, P = 0.003), DHA (r - 0.121, P = 0.026), and the sum of the serum phospholipid n-3 PUFA (r - 0.141, P = 0.009). Multiple regression analysis showed that the variables that explained the behaviour of the levels of anti-oxidized-LDL antibodies were age (P < 0.001) and the serum phospholipid EPA (P < 0.001). This study showed that the fatty acid composition of serum phospholipids, and especially the percentage of EPA, was inversely related with the levels of anti-oxidized-LDL antibodies.

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the studyof tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of twodifferent types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and MountainRainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated witha statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a betterunderstanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special caseof segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and thechange in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephrasusing Bayesian statistical calibration

Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Inferring the degree of incipient speciation in secondary contact zones of closely related lineages of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup).

Reproductive isolation between lineages is expected to accumulate with divergence time, but the time taken to speciate may strongly vary between different groups of organisms. In anuran amphibians, laboratory crosses can still produce viable hybrid offspring >20 My after separation, but the speed of speciation in closely related anuran lineages under natural conditions is poorly studied. Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup) offer an excellent system to address this question, comprising several lineages that arose at different times and form secondary contact zones. Using mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we previously demonstrated that in Sicily, B. siculus and B. balearicus developed advanced reproductive isolation after Plio-Pleistocene divergence (2.6 My, 3.3-1.9), with limited historic mtDNA introgression, scarce nuclear admixture, but low, if any, current gene flow. Here, we study genetic interactions between younger lineages of early Pleistocene divergence (1.9 My, 2.5-1.3) in northeastern Italy (B. balearicus, B. viridis). We find significantly more, asymmetric nuclear and wider, differential mtDNA introgression. The population structure seems to be molded by geographic distance and barriers (rivers), much more than by intrinsic genomic incompatibilities. These differences of hybridization between zones may be partly explained by differences in the duration of previous isolation. Scattered research on other anurans suggests that wide hybrid zones with strong introgression may develop when secondary contacts occur <2 My after divergence, whereas narrower zones with restricted gene flow form when divergence exceeds 3 My. Our study strengthens support for this rule of thumb by comparing lineages with different divergence times within the same radiation.

THE ROLE OF PUNISHMENT IN MANAGING DISCIPLINE: Best Practices and Lessons Learned

Now more than ever Capeverdean teachers are faced with student acts of violence which reverberate to the outer limits of our society at large. These situations have caused teachers to reflect upon their roles as educator and “promoter” of discipline. Some are even questioning their effectiveness in this process as they are challenged to discover if they are in the right place. How do teachers manage discipline? In the past, punishment was the rule of thumb and to some extent remains the measure of choice. But is this the most effective form of behavior management? What is the relationship between punishment and corrective behavior? This paper will discuss the affect that punishment has on the learning process as it attempts to suggest strategies in managing discipline with the objective of creating an effective learning environment.

Negativity effect and the emergence of ideologies

``Negativity effect'' refers to the psychological phenomenon that peopletend to attach greater weight to negative information than to equallyextreme and equally likely positive information in a variety of informationprocessing tasks. Numerous studies of impression formation have found thatnegative information is weighted more heavily than positive information asimpressions of others are formed. There is empirical evidence in politicalscience that shows the importance of the negativity effect in the informationprocessing of the voters. This effect can explain the observed decreaseof popularity for a president the longer he is in office. \\We construct a dynamic model of political competition, incorporating thenegativity effect in the decision rule of the voters and allowing their preferencesto change over time, according to the past performance of the candidateswhile in office. Our model may explain the emergence of ideologies out ofthe competition for votes of myopic candidates freely choosing policypositions. This result gives rise to the formation of political parties,as infinitely--lived agents with a certain ideology. Furthermore, in thismodel some voters may start out by switching among parties associated withdifferent policies, but find themselves supporting one of the parties fromsome point on. Thus, the model describes a process by which some votersbecome identified with a ``right'' or ``left'' bloc, while others ``swing''between the two parties.

The colonial origins of Civil War

The dominant hypothesis in the literature that studies conflict is that poverty is the main cause of civil wars. We instead analyze the effect of institutions on civil war, controlling for income per capita. In our set up, institutions are endogenous and colonial origins affect civil wars through their legacy on institutions. Our results indicate that institutions, proxied by the protection of property rights, rule of law and the efficiency of the legal system, are a fundamental cause of civil war. In particular, an improvement in institutions from the median value in the sample to the 75th percentile is associated with a 38 percentage points reduction in the incidence of civil wars. Moreover, once institutions are included as explaining civil wars, income does not have any effect on civil war, either directly or indirectly.

Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption

Recent evidence suggests that consumption rises in response to an increase in government spending. That finding cannot be easily reconciled with existing optimizing business cycle models. We extend the standard new Keynesian model to allow for the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers. We show how the interaction of the latter with sticky prices and deficit financing can account for the existing evidence on the effects of government spending.

Structural and optical properties of dilute InAsN grown by molecular beam epitaxy

We perform a structural and optical characterization of InAs1¿xNx epilayers grown by molecular beam epitaxy on InAs substrates x 2.2% . High-resolution x-ray diffraction HRXRD is used to obtain information about the crystal quality and the strain state of the samples and to determine the N content of the films. The composition of two of the samples investigated is also obtained with time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectroscopy ToF-SIMS measurements. The combined analysis of the HRXRD and ToF-SIMS data suggests that the lattice parameter of InAsN might significantly deviate from Vegard"s law. Raman scattering and far-infrared reflectivity measurements have been carried out to investigate the incorporation of N into the InAsN alloy. N-related local vibrational modes are detected in the samples with higher N content. The origin of the observed features is discussed. We study the compositional dependence of the room-temperature band gap energy of the InAsN alloy. For this purpose, photoluminescence and optical absorption measurements are presented. The results are analyzed in terms of the band-anticrossing BAC model. We find that the room-temperature coupling parameter for InAsN within the BAC model is CNM=2.0 0.1 eV.

Growth and magnetic properties of multiferroic LaxBi1-xMnO3 thin films

A comparative study of LaxBi1-xMnO3 thin films grown on SrTiO3 substrates is reported. It is shown that these films grow epitaxially in a narrow pressure-temperature range. A detailed structural and compositional characterization of the films is performed within the growth window. The structure and the magnetization of this system are investigated. We find a clear correlation between the magnetization and the unit-cell volume that we ascribe to Bi deficiency and the resultant introduction of a mixed valence on the Mn ions. On these grounds, we show that the reduced magnetization of LaxBi1-xMnO3 thin films compared to the bulk can be explained quantitatively by a simple model, taking into account the deviation from nominal composition and the Goodenough-Kanamori-Anderson rules of magnetic interactions.

Mineral inventory of continuously erupting basaltic andesites at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica: implications for interpreting monotonous, crystal-rich, mafic arc stratigraphies

Except for the first 2 years since July 29, 1968, Arenal volcano has continuously erupted compositionally monotonous and phenocryst-rich (similar to35%) basaltic andesites composed of plagioclase (plag), orthopyroxene (opx), clinopyroxene (cpx), spinel olivine. Detailed textural and compositional analyses of phenocrysts, mineral inclusions, and microlites reveal comparable complexities in any given sample and identify mineral components that require a minimum of four crystallization environments. We suggest three distinct crystallization environments crystallized low Mg# (<78) silicate phases from andesitic magma but at different physical conditions, such as variable pressure of crystallization and water conditions. The dominant environment, i.e., the one which accounts for the majority of minerals and overprinted all other assemblages near rims of phenocrysts, cocrystallized clinopyroxene (Mg# similar to71-78), orthopyroxene (Mg# similar to71-78), titanomagnetite and plagioclase (An(60) to An(85)). The second environment cocrystallized clinopyroxene (Mg# 71-78), olivine (<Fo(78)), titanomagnetite, and very high An (similar to90) plagioclase, while the third cocrystallized clinopyroxene (Mg# 71-78) with high (>7) Al/Ti and high (>4 wt.%) Al2O3, titanomagnetite with considerable Al2O3 (10-18 wt.%) and possibly olivine but appears to lack plagioclase. A fourth crystallization environment is characterized by clinopyroxene (e.g., Mg#=similar to78-85; Cr2O3=0.15-0.7 wt.%), Al-, Cr-rich spinel olivine (similar toFo(80)), and in some circumstances high-An (>80) plagioclase. This assemblage seems to record mafic inputs into the Arenal system and crystallization at high to low pressures. Single crystals cannot be completely classified as xenocrysts, antecrysts (cognate crystals), or phenocrysts, because they often contain different parts each representing a different crystallization environment and thus belong to different categories. Bulk compositions are mostly too mafic to have crystallized the bulk of ferromagnesian minerals and thus likely do not represent liquid compositions. On the other hand, they are the cumulative products of multiple mixing events assembling melts and minerals from a variety of sources. The driving force for this multistage mixing evolution to generate erupting basaltic andesites is thought to be the ascent of mafic magma from lower crustal levels to subvolcanic depths which at the same time may also go through compositional modification by fractionation and assimilation of country rocks. Thus, mafic magmas become basaltic andesite through mixing, fractionation and assimilation by the time they arrive at subvolcanic depths. We infer new increments of basaltic andesite are supplied nearly continuously to the subvolcanic reservoir concurrently to the current eruption and that these new increments are blended into the residing, subvolcanic magma. Thus, the compositional monotony is mostly the product of repetitious production of very similar basaltic andesite. Furthermore, we propose that this quasi-constant supply of small increments of magma is the fundamental cause for small-scale, decade-long continuous volcanic activity; that is, the current eruption of Arenal is flux-controlled by inputs of mantle magmas. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.