907 resultados para Cointegration analysis with structural breaks


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We examine the effects of the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differential on the real exchange rate in a sample of small open developed economies. We employ cointegration analysis to search for possible long-term linkages. We find that while both the terms of trade and the expected real interest rate differentials affect the real exchange rate in the long run, the role of the terms of trade generally proves more consistent across countries. The speed of adjustment for the expected real interest rate differential in the error-correction model, however, is quantitatively larger than it is for the terms of trade.

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Global and local climatic forcing, e.g. concentration of atmospheric CO2 or insolation, influence the distribution of C3 and C4 plants in southwest Africa. C4 plants dominate in more arid and warmer areas and are favoured by lower pCO2 levels. Several studies have assessed past and present continental vegetation by the analysis of terrestrial n-alkanes in near-coastal deep sea sediments using single samples or a small number of samples from a given climatic stage. The objectives of this study were to evaluate vegetation changes in southwest Africa with regard to climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene and to elucidate the potential of single sample simplifications. We analysed two sediment cores at high resolution, altogether ca. 240 samples, from the Southeast Atlantic Ocean (20°S and 12°S) covering the time spans of 18 to 1 ka and 56 to 2 ka, respectively. Our results for 20°S showed marginally decreasing C4 plant domination (of ca. 5%) during deglaciation based on average chain length (ACL27-33 values) and carbon isotopic composition of the C31 and C33 n-alkanes. Values for single samples from 18 ka and the Holocene overlap and, thus, are not significantly representative of the climatic stages they derive from. In contrast, at 12°S the n-alkane parameters show a clear difference of plant type for the Late Pleistocene (C4 plant domination, 66% C4 on average) and the Holocene (C3 plant domination, 40% C4 on average). During deglaciation vegetation change highly correlates with the increase in pCO2 (r² = 0.91). Short-term climatic events such as Heinrich Stadials or Antarctic warming periods are not reflected by vegetation changes in the catchment area. Instead, smaller vegetation fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene occur in accordance with local variations of insolation.

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The stability of gypsum in marine sediments has been investigated through the calculation of its saturation index at the sediment in situ temperature and pressure, using the entire ODP/IODP porewater composition database (14416 samples recovered from sediments collected during 95 ODP and IODP Legs). Saturation is reached in sediment porewaters of 26 boreholes drilled at 23 different sites, during 12 ODP/IODP Legs. As ocean bottom seawater is largely undersaturated with respect to gypsum, the porewater Ca content or its SO4 concentration, or both, must increase in order to reach equilibrium. At several sites equilibrium is reached either through the presence of evaporitic gypsum layers found in the sedimentary sequence, and/or through a salinity increase due to the presence of evaporitic brines with high concentrations of Ca and SO4. Saturation can also be reached in porewaters of seawater-like salinity (~ 35 per mil), provided sulfate reduction is limited. In this case, saturation is due to the alteration of volcanogenic material which releases large amounts of Ca to the porewaters, where the Ca concentration can reach 55 times its seawater value as for example at ODP Leg 134 site 833. At a few sites, saturation is reached in hydrothermal environments, or as a consequence of the alteration of the basaltic basement. In addition to the well known influence of brines on the formation of gypsum, these results indicate that the alteration of sediments rich in volcanogenic material is a major process leading to gypsum saturation in marine sediment porewaters. Therefore, the presence of gypsum in ancient and recent marine sediments should not be systematically interpreted as due to hypersaline waters, especially if volcanogenic material is present.

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Nonlinear analysis tools for studying and characterizing the dynamics of physiological signals have gained popularity, mainly because tracking sudden alterations of the inherent complexity of biological processes might be an indicator of altered physiological states. Typically, in order to perform an analysis with such tools, the physiological variables that describe the biological process under study are used to reconstruct the underlying dynamics of the biological processes. For that goal, a procedure called time-delay or uniform embedding is usually employed. Nonetheless, there is evidence of its inability for dealing with non-stationary signals, as those recorded from many physiological processes. To handle with such a drawback, this paper evaluates the utility of non-conventional time series reconstruction procedures based on non uniform embedding, applying them to automatic pattern recognition tasks. The paper compares a state of the art non uniform approach with a novel scheme which fuses embedding and feature selection at once, searching for better reconstructions of the dynamics of the system. Moreover, results are also compared with two classic uniform embedding techniques. Thus, the goal is comparing uniform and non uniform reconstruction techniques, including the one proposed in this work, for pattern recognition in biomedical signal processing tasks. Once the state space is reconstructed, the scheme followed characterizes with three classic nonlinear dynamic features (Largest Lyapunov Exponent, Correlation Dimension and Recurrence Period Density Entropy), while classification is carried out by means of a simple k-nn classifier. In order to test its generalization capabilities, the approach was tested with three different physiological databases (Speech Pathologies, Epilepsy and Heart Murmurs). In terms of the accuracy obtained to automatically detect the presence of pathologies, and for the three types of biosignals analyzed, the non uniform techniques used in this work lightly outperformed the results obtained using the uniform methods, suggesting their usefulness to characterize non-stationary biomedical signals in pattern recognition applications. On the other hand, in view of the results obtained and its low computational load, the proposed technique suggests its applicability for the applications under study.

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In recent years, Independent Components Analysis (ICA) has proven itself to be a powerful signal-processing technique for solving the Blind-Source Separation (BSS) problems in different scientific domains. In the present work, an application of ICA for processing NIR hyperspectral images to detect traces of peanut in wheat flour is presented. Processing was performed without a priori knowledge of the chemical composition of the two food materials. The aim was to extract the source signals of the different chemical components from the initial data set and to use them in order to determine the distribution of peanut traces in the hyperspectral images. To determine the optimal number of independent component to be extracted, the Random ICA by blocks method was used. This method is based on the repeated calculation of several models using an increasing number of independent components after randomly segmenting the matrix data into two blocks and then calculating the correlations between the signals extracted from the two blocks. The extracted ICA signals were interpreted and their ability to classify peanut and wheat flour was studied. Finally, all the extracted ICs were used to construct a single synthetic signal that could be used directly with the hyperspectral images to enhance the contrast between the peanut and the wheat flours in a real multi-use industrial environment. Furthermore, feature extraction methods (connected components labelling algorithm followed by flood fill method to extract object contours) were applied in order to target the spatial location of the presence of peanut traces. A good visualization of the distributions of peanut traces was thus obtained

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Global long-term potentiation (LTP) was induced in organotypic hippocampal slice cultures by a brief application of 10 mM glycine. Glycine-induced LTP was occluded by previous theta burst stimulation-induced potentiation, indicating that both phenomena share similar cellular processes. Glycine-induced LTP was associated with increased [3H]α-amino-3-hydroxyl-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA) binding in membrane fractions as well as increased amount of a selective spectrin breakdown product generated by calpain-mediated spectrin proteolysis. Antibodies against the C-terminal (C-Ab) and N-terminal (N-Ab) domains of GluR1 subunits were used to evaluate structural changes in AMPA receptor properties resulting from glycine-induced LTP. No quantitative or qualitative changes were observed in Western blots from membrane fractions prepared from glycine-treated slices with C-Ab. In contrast, Western blots stained with N-Ab revealed the formation of a 98-kDa species of GluR1 subunits as well as an increased amount of immunoreactivity after glycine-induced LTP. The amount of spectrin breakdown product was positively correlated with the amount of the 98-kDa species of GluR1 after glycine treatment. Functional modifications of AMPA receptors were evaluated by determining changes in the effect of pressure-applied AMPA on synaptic responses before and after glycine-induced LTP. Glycine treatment produced a significant increase in AMPA receptor function after potentiation that correlated with the degree of potentiation. The results indicate that LTP induction produces calpain activation, truncation of the C-Ab domain of GluR1 subunits of AMPA receptors, and increased AMPA receptor function. They also suggest that insertion of new receptors takes place after LTP induction.

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Objective: To assess the usefulness of microperimetry (MP) as an additional objective method for characterizing the fixation pattern in nystagmus. Design: Prospective study. Participants: Fifteen eyes of 8 subjects (age, 12–80 years) with nystagmus from the Lluís Alcanyís Foundation (University of Valencia, Spain) were included. Methods: All patients had a comprehensive ophthalmologic examination including a microperimetric examination (MAIA, CenterVue, Padova, Italy). The following microperimetric parameters were evaluated: average threshold (AT), macular integrity index (MI), fixating points within a circle of 1° (P1) and 2° of radius (P2), bivariate contour ellipse area (BCEA) considering 63% and 95% of fixating points, and horizontal and vertical axes of that ellipse. Results: In monocular conditions, 6 eyes showed a fixation classified as stable, 6 eyes showed a relatively unstable fixation, and 3 eyes showed an unstable fixation. Statistically significant differences were found between the horizontal and vertical components of movement (p = 0.001), as well as in their ranges (p < 0.001). Intereye comparison showed differences between eyes in some subjects, but only statistically significant differences were found in the fixation coordinates X and Y (p < 0.001). No significant intereye differences were found between microperimetric parameters. Between monocular and binocular conditions, statistically significant differences in the X and Y coordinates were found in all eyes (p < 0.02) except one. No significant differences were found between MP parameters for monocular or binocular conditions. Strong correlations of corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA) with AT (r = 0.812, p = 0.014), MI (r = –0.812, p = 0.014), P1 (r = 0.729, p = 0.002), horizontal diameter of BCEA (r = –0.700, p = 0.004), and X range (r = –0.722, p = 0.005) were found. Conclusions: MP seems to be a useful technology for the characterization of the fixation pattern in nystagmus, which seems to be related to the level of visual acuity achieved by the patient.

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The emergence of widespread offshoring of information-intensive services is arguably one of the more impactful phenomena to transform business in the last ten years. A growing body of research has examined the firm-level drivers andlocation factors (i.e., the why's and where's) of services offshoring. However, little empirical research has examined the maturation sequencing (or when's) of services offshoring. Adopting industry life cycle theory as a framework, the key research questions examined in the paper are: when do different categories of offshoring services provision change from being emergent sectors to more mature ones, and how does the timing of this sequence relate to the type of service offshored. Using a database of 1420 offshore services FDI projects, we find that the value-add as well as the information sensitivity of the service category are related to when the service categories progress through the industry life cycle. Implications for future waves of service offshoring are discussed.

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Mode of access: Internet.

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U.S. Geological Survey, Water Resources Division"--P. [2] of cover.