Diagnosis of right ventricular dysfunction in acute pulmonary embolism using helical computed tomography.

Forty-six consecutive patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) who underwent pulmonary angiography, helical computed tomography (CT), and echocardiography in the investigators' emergency department were studied. It was determined that the CT right ventricular (RV)/left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic area ratio was correlated with PE obstruction and echocardiography. A CT RV/LV area ratio >1 had a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 88% in diagnosing significant PE. The present study suggests that helical CT may be used as a triage tool in acute PE for selecting high-risk patients, using calculation of the RV/LV area ratio to detect RV dysfunction.

Quelques abus de la statistique dans la recherche médicale [Various abuses of statistics in medical research].

Statistics has become an indispensable tool in biomedical research. Thanks, in particular, to computer science, the researcher has easy access to elementary "classical" procedures. These are often of a "confirmatory" nature: their aim is to test hypotheses (for example the efficacy of a treatment) prior to experimentation. However, doctors often use them in situations more complex than foreseen, to discover interesting data structures and formulate hypotheses. This inverse process may lead to misuse which increases the number of "statistically proven" results in medical publications. The help of a professional statistician thus becomes necessary. Moreover, good, simple "exploratory" techniques are now available. In addition, medical data contain quite a high percentage of outliers (data that deviate from the majority). With classical methods it is often very difficult (even for a statistician!) to detect them and the reliability of results becomes questionable. New, reliable ("robust") procedures have been the subject of research for the past two decades. Their practical introduction is one of the activities of the Statistics and Data Processing Department of the University of Social and Preventive Medicine, Lausanne.

Estimation of existing cable systems in generator-busbar unit and choice the optimal solution for its modernization

The aim of this master’s thesis is to develop an algorithm to calculate the cable network for heat and power station CHGRES. This algorithm includes important aspect which has an influence on the cable network reliability. Moreover, according to developed algorithm, the optimal solution for modernization cable system from economical and technical point of view was obtained. The conditions of existing cable lines show that replacement is necessary. Otherwise, the fault situation would happen. In this case company would loss not only money but also its prestige. As a solution, XLPE single core cables are more profitable than other types of cable considered in this work. Moreover, it is presented the dependence of value of short circuit current on number of 10/110 kV transformers connected in parallel between main grid and considered 10 kV busbar and how it affects on final decision. Furthermore, the losses of company in power (capacity) market due to fault situation are presented. These losses are commensurable with investment to replace existing cable system.

Implementation of the trauma registry as a tool for quality improvement in trauma care in a brazilian hospital: the first 12 months

ABSTRACTObjective:to analyze the implementation of a trauma registry in a university teaching hospital delivering care under the unified health system (SUS), and its ability to identify points for improvement in the quality of care provided.Methods:the data collection group comprised students from medicine and nursing courses who were holders of FAPESP scholarships (technical training 1) or otherwise, overseen by the coordinators of the project. The itreg (ECO Sistemas-RJ/SBAIT) software was used as the database tool. Several quality "filters" were proposed to select those cases for review in the quality control process.Results:data for 1344 trauma patients were input to the itreg database between March and November 2014. Around 87.0% of cases were blunt trauma patients, 59.6% had RTS>7.0 and 67% ISS<9. Full records were available for 292 cases, which were selected for review in the quality program. The auditing filters most frequently registered were laparotomy four hours after admission and drainage of acute subdural hematomas four hours after admission. Several points for improvement were flagged, such as control of overtriage of patients, the need to reduce the number of negative imaging exams, the development of protocols for achieving central venous access, and management of major TBI.Conclusion: the trauma registry provides a clear picture of the points to be improved in trauma patient care, however, there are specific peculiarities for implementing this tool in the Brazilian milieu.

‘Reliability Concepts in Quantile-based Analysis of Lifetime Data

Reliability analysis is a well established branch of statistics that deals with the statistical study of different aspects of lifetimes of a system of components. As we pointed out earlier that major part of the theory and applications in connection with reliability analysis were discussed based on the measures in terms of distribution function. In the beginning chapters of the thesis, we have described some attractive features of quantile functions and the relevance of its use in reliability analysis. Motivated by the works of Parzen (1979), Freimer et al. (1988) and Gilchrist (2000), who indicated the scope of quantile functions in reliability analysis and as a follow up of the systematic study in this connection by Nair and Sankaran (2009), in the present work we tried to extend their ideas to develop necessary theoretical framework for lifetime data analysis. In Chapter 1, we have given the relevance and scope of the study and a brief outline of the work we have carried out. Chapter 2 of this thesis is devoted to the presentation of various concepts and their brief reviews, which were useful for the discussions in the subsequent chapters .In the introduction of Chapter 4, we have pointed out the role of ageing concepts in reliability analysis and in identifying life distributions .In Chapter 6, we have studied the first two L-moments of residual life and their relevance in various applications of reliability analysis. We have shown that the first L-moment of residual function is equivalent to the vitality function, which have been widely discussed in the literature .In Chapter 7, we have defined percentile residual life in reversed time (RPRL) and derived its relationship with reversed hazard rate (RHR). We have discussed the characterization problem of RPRL and demonstrated with an example that the RPRL for given does not determine the distribution uniquely

Reliability in the whole life cycle of building systems

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to show that reliability analysis and its implementation will lead to an improved whole life performance of the building systems, and hence their life cycle costs (LCC). Design/methodology/approach – This paper analyses reliability impacts on the whole life cycle of building systems, and reviews the up-to-date approaches adopted in UK construction, based on questionnaires designed to investigate the use of reliability within the industry. Findings – Approaches to reliability design and maintainability design have been introduced from the operating environment level, system structural level and component level, and a scheduled maintenance logic tree is modified based on the model developed by Pride. Different stages of the whole life cycle of building services systems, reliability-associated factors should be considered to ensure the system's whole life performance. It is suggested that data analysis should be applied in reliability design, maintainability design, and maintenance policy development. Originality/value – The paper presents important factors in different stages of the whole life cycle of the systems, and reliability and maintainability design approaches which can be helpful for building services system designers. The survey from the questionnaires provides the designers with understanding of key impacting factors.

Validation of the portuguese simple measure of impact of lupus erythematosus in youngsters (SMILEY) in Brazil

Background and Objective: Simple Measure of the Impact of Lupus Erythematosus in Youngsters (SMILEY) is a health-related quality of life (HRQOL) assessment tool for pediatric systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), which has been translated into Portuguese for Brazil. We are reporting preliminary data on cross-cultural validation and reliability of SMILEY in Portuguese (Brazil). Methods: In this multi-center cross-sectional study, Brazilian children and adolescents 5-18 years of age with SLE and parents participated. Children and parents completed child and parent reports of Portuguese SMILEY and Portuguese Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQLTM) Generic and Rheumatology modules. Parents also completed the Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire (CHAQ). Physicians completed the SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI), Physician's Global Assessment of disease activity (PGA) and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics ACR Damage Index (SDI). Results: 99 subjects (84 girls) were enrolled; 93 children and 97 parents filled out the SMILEY scale. Subjects found SMILEY relevant and easy to understand and completed SMILEY in 5-15 minutes. Brazilian SMILEY was found to have good psychometric properties (validity and reliability), and the child-parent agreement was moderate. Conclusion: SMILEY may eventually be used routinely as a research/clinical tool in Brazil. It may be also adapted for other Portuguese-speaking nations offering critical information regarding the effect of SLE on HRQOL for children with SLE. © The Author(s), 2012.

Improvements in the sensibility of MSA-GA tool using COFFEE objective function

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Reliability of buildings in service limit state for maximum horizontal displacements

Brazilian design code ABNT NBR6118:2003 - Design of Concrete Structures - Procedures - [1] proposes the use of simplified models for the consideration of non-linear material behavior in the evaluation of horizontal displacements in buildings. These models penalize stiffness of columns and beams, representing the effects of concrete cracking and avoiding costly physical non-linear analyses. The objectives of the present paper are to investigate the accuracy and uncertainty of these simplified models, as well as to evaluate the reliabilities of structures designed following ABNT NBR6118:2003[1&] in the service limit state for horizontal displacements. Model error statistics are obtained from 42 representative plane frames. The reliabilities of three typical (4, 8 and 12 floor) buildings are evaluated, using the simplified models and a rigorous, physical and geometrical non-linear analysis. Results show that the 70/70 (column/beam stiffness reduction) model is more accurate and less conservative than the 80/40 model. Results also show that ABNT NBR6118:2003 [1] design criteria for horizontal displacement limit states (masonry damage according to ACI 435.3R-68(1984) [10]) are conservative, and result in reliability indexes which are larger than those recommended in EUROCODE [2] for irreversible service limit states.

Tecniche di progettazione tollerante alle variazioni per circuiti digitali in tecnologie nanometriche

The digital electronic market development is founded on the continuous reduction of the transistors size, to reduce area, power, cost and increase the computational performance of integrated circuits. This trend, known as technology scaling, is approaching the nanometer size. The lithographic process in the manufacturing stage is increasing its uncertainty with the scaling down of the transistors size, resulting in a larger parameter variation in future technology generations. Furthermore, the exponential relationship between the leakage current and the threshold voltage, is limiting the threshold and supply voltages scaling, increasing the power density and creating local thermal issues, such as hot spots, thermal runaway and thermal cycles. In addiction, the introduction of new materials and the smaller devices dimension are reducing transistors robustness, that combined with high temperature and frequently thermal cycles, are speeding up wear out processes. Those effects are no longer addressable only at the process level. Consequently the deep sub-micron devices will require solutions which will imply several design levels, as system and logic, and new approaches called Design For Manufacturability (DFM) and Design For Reliability. The purpose of the above approaches is to bring in the early design stages the awareness of the device reliability and manufacturability, in order to introduce logic and system able to cope with the yield and reliability loss. The ITRS roadmap suggests the following research steps to integrate the design for manufacturability and reliability in the standard CAD automated design flow: i) The implementation of new analysis algorithms able to predict the system thermal behavior with the impact to the power and speed performances. ii) High level wear out models able to predict the mean time to failure of the system (MTTF). iii) Statistical performance analysis able to predict the impact of the process variation, both random and systematic. The new analysis tools have to be developed beside new logic and system strategies to cope with the future challenges, as for instance: i) Thermal management strategy that increase the reliability and life time of the devices acting to some tunable parameter,such as supply voltage or body bias. ii) Error detection logic able to interact with compensation techniques as Adaptive Supply Voltage ASV, Adaptive Body Bias ABB and error recovering, in order to increase yield and reliability. iii) architectures that are fundamentally resistant to variability, including locally asynchronous designs, redundancy, and error correcting signal encodings (ECC). The literature already features works addressing the prediction of the MTTF, papers focusing on thermal management in the general purpose chip, and publications on statistical performance analysis. In my Phd research activity, I investigated the need for thermal management in future embedded low-power Network On Chip (NoC) devices.I developed a thermal analysis library, that has been integrated in a NoC cycle accurate simulator and in a FPGA based NoC simulator. The results have shown that an accurate layout distribution can avoid the onset of hot-spot in a NoC chip. Furthermore the application of thermal management can reduce temperature and number of thermal cycles, increasing the systemreliability. Therefore the thesis advocates the need to integrate a thermal analysis in the first design stages for embedded NoC design. Later on, I focused my research in the development of statistical process variation analysis tool that is able to address both random and systematic variations. The tool was used to analyze the impact of self-timed asynchronous logic stages in an embedded microprocessor. As results we confirmed the capability of self-timed logic to increase the manufacturability and reliability. Furthermore we used the tool to investigate the suitability of low-swing techniques in the NoC system communication under process variations. In this case We discovered the superior robustness to systematic process variation of low-swing links, which shows a good response to compensation technique as ASV and ABB. Hence low-swing is a good alternative to the standard CMOS communication for power, speed, reliability and manufacturability. In summary my work proves the advantage of integrating a statistical process variation analysis tool in the first stages of the design flow.

Quantum effects and dynamics in hydrogen-bonded systems: a first-principles approach to spectroscopic experiments

Computer simulations have become an important tool in physics. Especially systems in the solid state have been investigated extensively with the help of modern computational methods. This thesis focuses on the simulation of hydrogen-bonded systems, using quantum chemical methods combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. MD simulations are carried out for investigating the energetics and structure of a system under conditions that include physical parameters such as temperature and pressure. Ab initio quantum chemical methods have proven to be capable of predicting spectroscopic quantities. The combination of these two features still represents a methodological challenge. Furthermore, conventional MD simulations consider the nuclei as classical particles. Not only motional effects, but also the quantum nature of the nuclei are expected to influence the properties of a molecular system. This work aims at a more realistic description of properties that are accessible via NMR experiments. With the help of the path integral formalism the quantum nature of the nuclei has been incorporated and its influence on the NMR parameters explored. The effect on both the NMR chemical shift and the Nuclear Quadrupole Coupling Constants (NQCC) is presented for intra- and intermolecular hydrogen bonds. The second part of this thesis presents the computation of electric field gradients within the Gaussian and Augmented Plane Waves (GAPW) framework, that allows for all-electron calculations in periodic systems. This recent development improves the accuracy of many calculations compared to the pseudopotential approximation, which treats the core electrons as part of an effective potential. In combination with MD simulations of water, the NMR longitudinal relaxation times for 17O and 2H have been obtained. The results show a considerable agreement with the experiment. Finally, an implementation of the calculation of the stress tensor into the quantum chemical program suite CP2K is presented. This enables MD simulations under constant pressure conditions, which is demonstrated with a series of liquid water simulations, that sheds light on the influence of the exchange-correlation functional used on the density of the simulated liquid.

The coordinated approach to child health in underserved population (CATCH UP) curriculum: A quantitative evaluation of an innovative preschool obesity prevention program

Obesity has been on the rise in the United States over the last 30 years for all populations, including preschoolers. The purpose of the project was to develop an observation tool to measure physical activity levels in preschool children and use the tool in a pilot test of the CATCH UP curriculum at two Head Start Centers in Houston. Pretest and posttest interobserver agreements were all above 0.60 for physical activity level and physical activity type. Preschoolers spent the majority of their time in light physical activity (75.33% pretest, 87.77% posttest), and spent little time in moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (24.67% pretest, 12.23% posttest). Percent time spent in MVPA decreased significantly pretest to posttest from (F=5.738, p=0.043). While the pilot testing of the CATCH UP curriculum did not show an increase in MVPA, the SOFIT-P tool did show promising results as being a new method for collecting physical activity level data for preschoolers. Once the new tool has undergone more reliability and validity testing, it could allow for a more convenient method of collecting physical activity levels for preschoolers. ^

Level 2 reliability of simplified pushover methods

Pushover methods are being used as an everyday tool in engineering practice and some of them have been included in Regulatory Codes. Recently several efforts have been done trying to look at them from a probabilistic viewpoint. In this paper the authors shall present a Level 2 approach based on a probabilistic definition of the characteristic points defining the response spectra as well as a probabilistic definition of the elasto-plastic pushover curve representing the structural behavior. Comparisons with Montecarlo simulations will help to precise the accuracy of the proposed approach.

Feasibility assessment of the interactive use of a Monte Carlo algorithm in treatment planning for intraoperative electron radiation therapy

This work analysed the feasibility of using a fast, customized Monte Carlo (MC) method to perform accurate computation of dose distributions during pre- and intraplanning of intraoperative electron radiation therapy (IOERT) procedures. The MC method that was implemented, which has been integrated into a specific innovative simulation and planning tool, is able to simulate the fate of thousands of particles per second, and it was the aim of this work to determine the level of interactivity that could be achieved. The planning workflow enabled calibration of the imaging and treatment equipment, as well as manipulation of the surgical frame and insertion of the protection shields around the organs at risk and other beam modifiers. In this way, the multidisciplinary team involved in IOERT has all the tools necessary to perform complex MC dosage simulations adapted to their equipment in an efficient and transparent way. To assess the accuracy and reliability of this MC technique, dose distributions for a monoenergetic source were compared with those obtained using a general-purpose software package used widely in medical physics applications. Once accuracy of the underlying simulator was confirmed, a clinical accelerator was modelled and experimental measurements in water were conducted. A comparison was made with the output from the simulator to identify the conditions under which accurate dose estimations could be obtained in less than 3 min, which is the threshold imposed to allow for interactive use of the tool in treatment planning. Finally, a clinically relevant scenario, namely early-stage breast cancer treatment, was simulated with pre- and intraoperative volumes to verify that it was feasible to use the MC tool intraoperatively and to adjust dose delivery based on the simulation output, without compromising accuracy. The workflow provided a satisfactory model of the treatment head and the imaging system, enabling proper configuration of the treatment planning system and providing good accuracy in the dosage simulation.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.