Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

The influence of motorcyclist behavior in crash involvement

Introduction: In Singapore, motorcycle crashes account for 50% of traffic fatalities and 53% of injuries. While extensive research efforts have been devoted to improve the motorcycle safety, the relationship between the rider behavior and the crash risk is still not well understood. The objective of this study is to evaluate how behavioral factors influence crash risk and to identify the most vulnerable group of motorcyclists. Methods: To explore the rider behavior, a 61-item questionnaire examining sensation seeking (Zuckerman et al., 1978), impulsiveness (Eysenck et al., 1985), aggressiveness (Buss & Perry, 1992), and risk-taking behavior (Weber et al., 2002) was developed. A total of 240 respondents with at least one year riding experience form the sample that relate behavior to their crash history, traffic penalty awareness, and demographic characteristics. By clustering the crash risk using the medoid portioning algorithm, the log-linear model relating the rider behavior to crash risk was developed. Results and Discussions: Crash-involved motorcyclists scored higher in impulsive sensation seeking, aggression and risk-taking behavior. Aggressive and high risk-taking motorcyclists were respectively 1.30 and 2.21 times more likely to fall under the high crash involvement group while impulsive sensation seeking was not found to be significant. Based on the scores on risk-taking and aggression, the motorcyclists were clustered into four distinct personality combinations namely, extrovert (aggressive, impulsive risk-takers), leader (cautious, aggressive risk-takers), follower (agreeable, ignorant risk-takers), and introvert (self-consciousness, fainthearted risk-takers). “Extrovert” motorcyclists were most prone to crashes, being 3.34 times more likely to involve in crash and 8.29 times more vulnerable than the “introvert”. Mediating factors like demographic characteristics, riding experience, and traffic penalty awareness were found not to be significant in reducing crash risk. Conclusion: The findings of this study will be useful for road safety campaign planners to be more focused in the target group as well as those who employ motorcyclists for their delivery business.

Statistical phylogeographic tests of competing 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' in the mouth-brooding freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion (Apogonidae)

Glacial cycles during the Pleistocene reduced sea levels and created new land connections in northern Australia, where many currently isolated rivers also became connected via an extensive paleo-lake system, 'Lake Carpentaria'. However, the most recent period during which populations of freshwater species were connected by gene flow across Lake Carpentaria is debated: various 'Lake Carpentaria hypotheses' have been proposed. Here, we used a statistical phylogeographic approach to assess the timing of past population connectivity across the Carpentaria region in the obligate freshwater fish, Glossamia aprion. Results for this species indicate that the most recent period of genetic exchange across the Carpentaria region coincided with the mid- to late Pleistocene, a result shown previously for other freshwater and diadromous species. Based on these findings and published studies for various freshwater, diadromous and marine species, we propose a set of 'Lake Carpentaria' hypotheses to explain past population connectivity in aquatic species: (1) strictly freshwater species had widespread gene flow in the mid- to late Pleistocene before the last glacial maximum; (2) marine species were subdivided into eastern and western populations by land during Pleistocene glacial phases; and (3) past connectivity in diadromous species reflects the relative strength of their marine affinity.

Shear tests of hollow flange channel beams with stiffened web openings

LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel hollow flange channel section produced using a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and dual electric resistance welding. The LSBs are commonly used as floor joists and bearers with web openings in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. Their shear strengths are considerably reduced when web openings are included for the purpose of locating building services. Shear tests of LSBs with web openings have shown that there is up to a 60% reduction in the shear capacity due to the inclusion of web openings. Hence there is a need to improve the shear capacity of LSBs with web openings. A cost effective way to eliminate the shear capacity reduction is to attach suitable stiffeners around the web openings. Hence experimental studies were undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LSBs with stiffened web openings. In this research, various stiffening methods using plate and LSB stiffeners attached to LSBs using both welding and screw-fastening were attempted. Our test results showed that the stiffening arrangements recommended by past research for cold-formed steel channel beams are not adequate to restore the shear strengths of LSBs with web openings. Therefore new stiffener arrangements were proposed for LSBs with web openings. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the results including the details of the optimum stiffener details for LiteSteel beams.

Shear tests of lipped chanel beams with web openings

Cold-formed steel members are increasingly used as primary structural elements in the building industries around the world due to the availability of thin and high strength steels and advanced cold-forming technologies. Cold-formed steel lipped channel beams (LCB) are commonly used as flexural members such as floor joists and bearers. However, their shear capacities are determined based on conservative design rules. Current practice in flooring systems is to include openings in the web element of floor joists or bearers so that building services can be located within them. However, limited research has been undertaken on the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with web openings. Hence a detailed experimental study involving 32 shear tests was undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with web openings. Simply supported test specimens of LCBs with an aspect ratio of 1.0 and 1.5 were loaded at mid-span until failure. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the results of their shear capacities and behavioural characteristics. Experimental results showed that the current design rules in cold-formed steel structures design codes are very conservative for the shear design of LCBs with web openings. Improved design equations have been proposed for the shear strength of LCBs with web openings based on the experimental results from this study.

Tests of LiteSteel Beams subject to combined shear and bending actions

This paper presents the details of an experimental study of a cold-formed steel beam known as LiteSteel Beam (LSB) subject to combined shear and bending actions. The LSBs have the beneficial characteristics of torsionally rigid rectangular hollow flanges combined with economical fabrication processes from a single strip of high strength steel. They combine the stability of hot-rolled steel sections with the high strength to weight ratio of conventional cold-formed steel sections. The LSB sections are commonly used as flexural members in residential, industrial and commercial buildings. In order to ensure safe and efficient designs of LSBs, many research studies have been undertaken on the flexural and shear strengths of LSBs. To date, however, no investigation has been conducted into the strength of LSB sections under combined shear and bending actions. Hence a detailed experimental study involving 18 tests was undertaken to investigate the behaviour and strength of LSBs under combined shear and bending actions. Test results showed that AS/NZS 4600 design rules for unstiffened webs grossly underestimated the capacity of LSBs. Therefore improved design equations were proposed for the combined shear and bending capacities of LSBs based on experimental results.

Shear tests of lipped channel beams with stiffened web openings

Cold-formed steel lipped channel beams (LCB) are used extensively in residential, industrial and commercial buildings as load bearing structural elements. Their shear strengths are considerably reduced when web openings are included for the purpose of locating building services. Past research has shown that the shear capacities of LCBs were reduced by up to 70% due to the inclusion of these web openings. Hence there is a need to improve the shear capacities of LCBs with web openings. A cost effective way of eliminating the detrimental effects of large web openings is to attach suitable stiffeners around the web openings and restore the original shear strength and stiffness of the LCBs. Hence detailed experimental studies were undertaken to investigate the shear behaviour and strength of LCBs with stiffened web openings. Both plate and stud stiffeners with varying sizes and thicknesses were attached to the web elements of LCBs using different screw-fastening arrangements. Simply supported test specimens of LCBs with aspect ratios of 1.0 and 1.5 were loaded at mid-span until failure. Test results showed that the plate stiffeners established using AISI recommendations are inadequate to restore the shear strengths of LCBs with web openings. Hence new stiffener arrangements have been proposed for LCBs based on experimental results. This paper presents the details of this experimental study on the shear strength of lipped channel beams with stiffened web openings, and the results.

Fire Tests of Cold-formed Steel Wall Systems

Cold-formed steel stud walls are an important component of Light Steel Framing (LSF) building systems used in commercial, industrial and residential buildings. In the conventional LSF stud wall systems, thin-walled steel studs are protected from fire by placing one or two layers of plasterboard on both sides with or without cavity insulation. However, there is very limited data about the structural and thermal performance of these wall systems while past research showed contradicting results about the benefits of cavity insulation. This research proposed a new LSF stud wall system in which a composite panel made of two plasterboards with insulation between them was used to improve the fire rating of walls. Full scale fire tests were conducted using both conventional steel stud walls with and without the use of cavity insulation and the new composite panel system. Eleven full scale load bearing wall specimens were tested to study the thermal and structural performances of the load bearing wall assemblies under standard fire conditions. These tests showed that the use of cavity insulation led to inferior fire performance of walls while also providing good explanations and supporting test data to overcome the incorrect industry assumptions about cavity insulation. Tests demonstrated that the use of external insulation in a composite panel form enhanced the thermal and structural performances of stud walls and increased their fire resistance rating significantly. This paper presents the details of the full scale fire tests of load-bearing wall assemblies lined with plasterboards and different types of insulation under varying load ratios. Test results including the temperature and deflection profiles of walls measured during the fire tests will be presented along with their failure modes and failure times.

Fire tests of load bearing steel stud walls exposed to real building fires

Abstract. Fire resistance has become an important part in structural design due to the ever increasing loss of properties and lives every year. Conventionally the fire rating of load bearing Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls is determined using standard fire tests based on the time-temperature curve given in ISO 834 [1]. Full scale fire testing based on this standard time-temperature curve originated from the application of wood burning furnaces in the early 1900s and it is questionable whether it truly represents the fuel loads in modern buildings. Hence a detailed fire research study into the performance of LSF walls was undertaken using real design fires based on Eurocode parametric curves [2] and Barnett’s ‘BFD’ curves [3]. This paper presents the development of these real fire curves and the results of full scale experimental study into the structural and fire behaviour of load bearing LSF stud wall systems.

Misericordiae Antemortem - The 1955 Mount Superbus Crash

On the 9th April 1955, RAAF Lincoln Bomber A73-64, on a mercy flight to transfer a critically ill infant from Townsville to Brisbane, crashed at Mount Superbus killing the four crew and two civilians on board. The immediate search and rescue was organised by a group of Brisbane bushwalkers who were camping in the area. Police and RAAF personnel subsequently joined the civilians at the crash site to recover the victims. During their initial search of the crash they located what were believed to be the remains of five adults. The arrival of the RAAF Senior Medical Officer (SMO) the following day revealed that only four adult bodies had been found and the bodies of both civilians, an adult and infant, were missing. Later that day the remains of six victims were recovered from the crash site and conveyed to the Warwick Police Station for identification. The RAAF SMO was responsible for the identifications of the aircrew while the Government Medical Officer, police and coroner were responsible for the identifications of the civilians. Eight days later, further remains of the infant were found by a civilian looking through the wreckage. This paper uses archival records not previously researched from a Disaster Victim Identification (DVI) perspective to stimulate interest among forensic practitioners, criminologists and other interested parties in the history of DVI and how practices in Australia have evolved.

Visual motion perception predicts driving hazard perception ability

PURPOSE: To examine the basis of previous findings of an association between indices of driving safety and visual motion sensitivity and to examine whether this association could be explained by low-level changes in visual function. METHODS: 36 visually normal participants (aged 19 – 80 years), completed a battery of standard vision tests including visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and automated visual fields. and two tests of motion perception including sensitivity for movement of a drifting Gabor stimulus, and sensitivity for displacement in a random-dot kinematogram (Dmin). Participants also completed a hazard perception test (HPT) which measured participants’ response times to hazards embedded in video recordings of real world driving which has been shown to be linked to crash risk. RESULTS: Dmin for the random-dot stimulus ranged from -0.88 to -0.12 log minutes of arc, and the minimum drift rate for the Gabor stimulus ranged from 0.01 to 0.35 cycles per second. Both measures of motion sensitivity significantly predicted response times on the HPT. In addition, while the relationship involving the HPT and motion sensitivity for the random-dot kinematogram was partially explained by the other visual function measures, the relationship with sensitivity for detection of the drifting Gabor stimulus remained significant even after controlling for these variables. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that motion perception plays an important role in the visual perception of driving-relevant hazards independent of other areas of visual function and should be further explored as a predictive test of driving safety. Future research should explore the causes of reduced motion perception in order to develop better interventions to improve road safety.

Evaluation of screening tests for predicting older driver performance and safety assessed by an on-road test

A number of tests and test batteries are available for the prediction of older driver safety, but many of these have not been validated against standardized driving outcome measures. The aim of this study was to evaluate a series of previously described screening tests in terms of their ability to predict the potential for safe and unsafe driving. Participants included 79 community-dwelling older drivers (M=72.16 years, SD=5.46; range 65-88 years; 57 males and 22 females) who completed a previously validated multi-disciplinary driving assessment, a hazard perception test, a hazard change detection test and a battery of vision and cognitive tests. Participants also completed a standardized on-road driving assessment. The multi-disciplinary test battery had the highest predictive ability with a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 73%, followed by the hazard perception test which demonstrated a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 61%. These findings suggest that a relatively simple and practical battery of tests from a range of domains has the capacity to predict safe and unsafe driving in older adults.