Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Burocracia e comércio exterior: os desafios à exportação sob a ótica das micro e pequenas empresas exportadoras do rio grande do norte

As micro e pequenas empresas, ao mesmo tempo em que exercem um papel extremamente relevante na estrutura produtiva da economia brasileira pelo grande número de empreendedores existentes e expressivo volume de pessoal ocupado, perdem competitividade ao se deparar com entraves ao seu desenvolvimento, sejam eles em âmbito gerencial, financeiro, burocrático ou estrutural. Com base nesse contexto, o estudo procura identificar em que medida, na percepção das MPEs exportadoras do Rio Grande do Norte, as exigências burocráticas do processo exportador afetam o seu desempenho no comércio exterior. Como exigências burocráticas compreende-se o conjunto de normas, regras e procedimentos e documentos que disciplinam o processo exportador, enquanto desempenho é entendido como os resultados da atividade econômica medido através do crescimento das vendas para o mercado externo; das demandas de produtos exportados não atendidas e da ampliação do mercado internacional. A pesquisa realizada é de caráter censitário, desenvolvida junto a quatorze MPEs do estado, atuantes regularmente no comércio exterior nos últimos três anos (2009-2011), utilizando aplicação de questionário, assim como uma consulta a dados secundários disponíveis. A análise dos dados levantados revelou que, efetivamente, na percepção dos respondentes, fatores externos como o custo do processo de exportação, falta de incentivo do governo, excesso de controle dos órgãos públicos e a infraestrutura logística do estado exercem influência na pequena participação das MPEs nas exportações do Brasil e do Nordeste, enquanto o bom desempenho exportador destas relaciona-se a fatores gerenciais, com destaque para investimentos na estrutura organizacional da empresa, conhecimento do mercado internacional e bom relacionamento com clientes e mercados

Avaliação de projetos sociais: análise da metodologia utilizada pela petrobrás

On the aggravation of social problems and the shortage of resources, the improvement of evaluation methods and control of its application, requiring more efficiency, efficacy, effectiveness and participation in its management, has been growing. As a result, emerges the importance of studying and developing such methodologies. The overall goal of this dissertation is to know what are the difficults to incorporate the point of view of executers and beneficiaries in evaluation process. To do so, has been done a research characterized as qualitative, with a field strategy using the case study of two social projects called Petrobras Child Program, situated in the metropolitan region of Natal, and Content Analysis technique for analyze the data. The conclusions of this work can assist in improving the process of projects evaluation financed by Petrobras, contributing with its social role, besides the possibility of encouraging a greater participation of other society actors, such as beneficiaries, in the evaluation process

Turismo cultural na ZEPH-Ribeira: possibilidades e limitações

Considering that urban interventions, planned and executed recently at Natal, RN, should put Ribeira - one of the town centers - in the new limits of the expanded center of the city, this work examines the use of this new accessibility for the benefit of the development of an infrastructure to support a type of tourism currently seen as an alternative to diversification into areas dominated by entertainment tourism (the case of Natal). A local with city's traditional cultural facilities and holder of a set built that is a synthesis of the images of the neighborhood, it fears that this increase in the potential for movement and flows of use stimulate speculation and deployment of a bulk type of activity incompatible with the preservation the architectural heritage. Important economy for the city, tourism has been showing a factor propellant processing urban related changes in accessibility. It is argued that cultural tourism, often used in plans and projects of revitalization across the country, may be factor for sustainable development and conserve the assets, and contributes to the process of revitalization of the historic cultural center as Ribeira. Intended to illustrate the need to consider other information that might help in the revitalization of the neighborhood, this research presents the offer cultural tourism of Ribeira and identifies and maps certain physical attributes that, combined with functional attributes, can stimulate or inhibit the diversity and vitality in the region

Contra as Secas: a engenharia e as origens de um planejamento regional no nordeste brasileiro

Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts

Projeto de um edifício para fins educacionais com foco na racionalização do consumo de água

The urban growth without the prior infrastructure has caused many environmental impacts such as the damage to quality of the water resources in the cities. Along with natural scarcity in some regions, this is one of the factors that limit the availability of drinking water. As a result, the conservation of drinking water is becoming one of the major concerns in sustainable architectural projects. Within this context, this dissertation proposes to develop the design of an educational building focusing on water consumption rationalization. The proposed project is located in UFRN Campus at Currais Novos, an area of warm and dry climate and low rainfall. The proposal seeks to integrate ways to reduce water consumption o to architecture, in order to exploit the advantages and savings. After quantifying the benefits achieved, it was concluded that it is possible to reduce significantly the drinking water consumption in educational buildings in universities using three principles: reduction the water consumption at the point of use, replacement of the water source and internal recycling. Calculations and simulations indicated that the proposed building may have water consumption up to 56% lower than if it would be provided by conventional facilities. Rationalization of water consumption brings direct and indirect benefits, with influences on the environmental, social and economic fields

Uma cidade em transformação: a influência da atividade do crediário nas mudanças da paisagem urbana de Tenente Ananias-RN

Studies on the urban landscape and on the changes of the urban space are relevant, since they reveal the economic dynamics and the way of life in the cities. Research on small towns, in particular, can display particular aspects and by so doing broaden the comprehension of this theme. The purpose of this research is to analyze the changes in the urban landscape and in the way of life of the inhabitants of the town of Tenente Ananias-RN that have been taking place since the 1990s up to the present (2013) and which result mainly from the commercial activity of crediário. The study is, therefore, a reflection on the impact of crediário economy on the urban landscape and on the way of life of a small town located in the hinterland of the State of Rio Grande do Norte. For this reason, it was necessary to study the landscape and the way of life found in Tenente Ananias in two moments: a) before the rise of the crediário, a period of time ranging from the town‟s initial emergence until the beginning of the 1990s; b) during the progress of crediário activity, from the beginning of the 1990s, when it starts, up to the present (2013). For this research, primary data (interviews, local survey visits) and secondary data (books, articles, reports, census data) were used. As a result of this study, it was possible to conclude that crediário plays a fundamental role for the explanation of the changes taking place in Tenente Ananias-RN, especially in the urban landscape and in the way of life of people. We have attempted, through this research, to contribute to the studies of a historical, social and economic process related to the urban landscape and space of a small town in the State of Rio Grande do Norte

O processo de urbanização de Mossorò: dos processos históricos à estrutura urbana atual

The general objective of this academic work is to analyze the relationship between the territorial division and the urban expansion process of Mossoró city, understood here as the production and occupation of space. The urban expansion in Mossoró, since its formation as settlement in 1772 until current days, identifies with the Brazilian urbanization process whose growth is determined by the capitalist development. Thus, the expansion was determined by several economical specializations imposed by the territorial division of work which occurs at an interregional level, and, sometimes at an international level. Then, each specialization determined a moment of the urban expansion of the city, as follows: a) The cattle farmer specialization, between 1772 and 1857, when the urban expansion was shy, is summarized to a commercial square that received goods from Aracati aiming to cover a wide rural area; b) The commercial emporium specialization, between 1857 and 1930, when the urban expansion took an important impulse with the concentration of public and private capitals; c) The salt industry and the agricultural-industrial exporter specialization inside a state of development policy, between 1930 and 1970, when the urban expansion, joined to the settlement of the working class in the urban soil, developed along an important axis -the railway; d) The render of services specialization inside a state of intervention policy, between 1970 and 1990, when the urban expansion was characterized by the accelerated growth rhythm, by the reuse of some spaces, and by space segregation of demanding people; e) The render of services policy inside a neoliberal state policy, since 1990 until current days, when the urban expansion reduced its rhythm abruptly, when only small alterations occurred in the existing spaces. It focused on social policies and on several slums eradication programs. Finally, the territorial structure is deeply articulated with others, no territorial, but economical, social and political, which happens at a national, regional and local rate. Only within a historical and conceptual panorama, it was possible to explain the urban expansion in Mossoró from its formation in 1772 until current days. Therefore, this work is a several discipline analysis of the urbanization process existing in Mossoró

O Plano Diretor como instrumento de gestão da cidade: o caso da cidade de Fortaleza/CE

According to article 182 of the Brazilian Federal Constitution, cities should perform social function, what brings the concept that the city should be a place for one to live well. For that to happen, it should be well administered by its public managers. However, so that there is a sound administration, one that really performs that social function, there must be, first, an efficient planning. We understand that such a thing occurs when the master plan is the main planning instrument of a city and serves as basis for its administration. We notice, however, that in most of the cities the master plan is formulated as a law that regulates urban planning but that both the population and the government most of the times are not aware of its importance concerning the relevant issues related to municipal administration, such as its relationship with the economy, taxation, the social issue, land use regulation, and, in summary, with all the aspects that constitute and that a municipal government should manage in the best possible way. One also knows that, in general, the attempt of city planning has always been connected to the duration of a mandate and that way public managers many times implement restricted measures aiming to just attain a political-electoral objective and publicizing their administration. That implies actions and works that in some cases have negative impacts or ones that cannot be removed from the cities. This study intends to show that the master plan should be the planning instrument guiding the municipal administration but that, however, what we note is a lack of connection between that instrument and the government guidelines of the municipal managers. In order to study what happens to the cities that have a planning which is not taken into account in its administration, we will use the city of Fortaleza, capital of the State of Ceará as a case study. Historically, in Fortaleza the public managers have seldom decided to administer the city in according to the master plans developed for it. We should emphasize that planning begins in the city quite late and until the current days it is being substituted by temporary measures. Through the analysis of the planning process and of the urban management of the city of Fortaleza, especially the master plans predicted since 1933, we explain that if such plans had been implemented, they could have been important tools for its administration to attain a social function, becoming therefore a place for one to live well

A morenidade da china tropical: o racianalismo de Casa-grande e Senzala

This essay discusses the race issue, emphasizing the racial concept in Casa-Grande & Senzala. We discussed the Brazilian intellectual scene of the 1920s and 1930s, also the decadence of the analysis based on the variables of race, geographical environment and climate, emphasizing the ascent of new approaches, structured cultural diversity in the capitalist economy and exclusionary. We use the concept of racialism, understanding it as any narrative that classifies the types of people in a racial criterion

A onda do turismo na cidade do sol: a reconfiguração urbana de Natal

Space reading of Natal City and its reconfiguration from the intensification of tourist activity and the expansion of the services' sector, transiting, primarily, through the geography, the social sciences, the economy, in one main approach that is unaware of science's traditional limitations and recognizes the complexity that involves current world. In face of this agreement it analyzes the social-economic implications that remodel the spaces under the new economic view of services' sector, commanded by the tourism, in an intense process of city's reconfiguration, concentrating in three great axles and their irrigation ways. These changes were about the public-private relation (by the public politics) in the formation of new spaces and in the remodeling of the city's old areas, which, together, had contributed to the tourist activity's appropriation, returning it in a social-economic mosaic that owns obvious reflexes in its space. This fragmentation in the urbane cloth of Natal is expressed by social nature and economic points and, in the scenery, is manifested through the modern forms of city's space occupation by the local elites and services' sector, evidencing their status' district, as well as selecting those areas with bigger capacity to reply to the capital

O tempo das brincadeiras : memória, turismo e tradição em Barra do Camaratuba PB

Barra do Camaratuba belongs to Mataraca city, nearby the boarder between Paraíba and Rio Grande do Norte states. It was the chosen community to develop this research, objectifying to study the set of practical of the cultural manifestations and the implications of the local tourist activity, considering the cultural dynamics. We tried to reconstruct stories from the narratives of the oldest inhabitants, natives, among others that they had lived, some how, individual and collective experiences related to the popular tricks and the traditional parties, considering what they speak and imagine about their experiences and its culture. The Lapinha, the Pastoril, the viola s songs, the Balls of Concertina, the João Redondo, the Ox of Kings, the wheel of Coconut were common practical perceivable through the communitarian bonds. Among these manifestations, the only one that resisted for a longer time was the wheel coconut. The São Pedro s fest is another popular manifestation that appears on the current scene like the padroeiro party, while others cultural practical compose the spectacle s scenery. These questions cover many of the narratives of the interviewed ones in the interlaced thing between memory, tourism and tradition. Therefore, we tried to build our research from the memory, participant observation, orality, techniques of the life history, personal depositions, among others basic methods for the reconstruction of a collective memory . Speaking about the past of Barra do Camaratuba is to live again the parties, the blood relations, the terço , the work in the roçados , in the flour house, the fishing, the leisure and the habits of the daily life. In this community, there is the presence of conflicts of social and cultural order, caused for the hegemonic classes that sponsor the parties. In the padroeiro party we perceive that the mercantile logic has started, very recently, to transform the religious factor into an excuse to put into motion the local economy. This way, a community originated from artisan fishers and agriculturists, having the fishing practical as a way of subsistence and the tricks as a reference, they had started to compose a new social picture with the arrival of the others and with the presumption and recent tourist development. We perceive social, environmental and cultural impact transformations, exemplified by a non planned activity or a predatory tourism. The changes will always be pointed and compared with other passing in a sphere of relations lived by the natives, local players and fishers

As cidades medias no desenvolvimento regional: um estudo sobre Pau dos Ferros (RN)

Esta tese versa sobre as cidades médias no atual contexto do desenvolvimento urbano brasileiro e nordestino. Na região Nordeste, o processo de urbanização foi lento, atomizado, geográfico e economicamente disperso, o que resultou numa rede urbana truncada, constituída principalmente por suas nove capitais regionais e cerca de duas dezenas de cidades de porte médio, em sua maioria, interiorizadas. Foi a partir dessa rede urbana nordestina interiorizada que nos propomos a estudar Pau dos Ferros, no Rio Grande do Norte e o papel que ela desempenha na rede urbana nordestina e potiguar. Compreender os determinantes da produção do espaço urbano-regional de Pau dos Ferros que o caracterizam como cidade média, com fins a refletir sobre o seu papel no desenvolvimento regional foi o objetivo geral desta pesquisa. Nossa hipótese é que, a despeito de um contingente populacional pequeno, Pau dos Ferros vem desempenhando na rede urbana do Nordeste e do Rio Grande do Norte as funções de cidade média, particularmente, na oferta dos serviços de educação superior e saúde, além da oferta de empregos, notadamente no comércio e nos serviços públicos, o que nos permitiu tratá-la à priori, a partir do conceito de cidade (inter) média. Para esta investigação, partimos da proposta de estudo e do pensamento de autores como Faria (1978), Benko (1999) e Brandão (2007), os quais propõem o estudo do urbano a partir de situações concretas que permitam compreender os fenomenos em sua múltiplas causalidades. Dessa forma, o fio condutor desta análise foi o modo como vem se reconfigurando as cidades médias e como essa reconfiguração tem afetado de diferentes formas as relações entre as cidades e entre as cidades e as regiões. Os resultados das análises apontaram que os investimentos públicos em saúde e educação têm contribuído para a atração de investimentos privados em suas respectivas áreas, e também em outras, o que tem ajudado a dinamizar a economia da cidade, inclusive modificado parcialmente sua estrutura ocupacional. Pau dos Ferros se destacou como um polo comercial e de serviços na rede urbana potiguar, formando um outlier no Alto Oeste, organizando uma bacia de empregos na sua área de influência que constatamos ser composta por 55 municípios do RN, CE e PB. Ao se consolidar como polo regional na oferta dos serviços de saúde e de educação superior, ampliou-se o fluxo de pessoas que realizam movimento pendular para trabalho e estudo. Em síntese, constatou-se que, a despeito do pequeno contingente populacional, a configuração urbano-regional de Pau dos Ferros, tanto em termos de sua dinâmica urbana, como de sua abrangência regional, fazem dela uma cidade média na rede urbana nordestina interiorizada

A Eficácia dos direitos fundamentais nos contratos civis e de consumo: uma teoria contratual baseada na colisão dos direitos ou bens constitucionalmente protegidos

The apparent virtuosity that if could wait of the globalization and the neoliberalism has given signals of deterioration in the contractual relations, especially in contracts of mass consumption, generating innumerable offensive situations to the basic rights and the goods constitutionally protected of the contractors. In the world of today, still that it does not reveal any desire, the individual practically is compelled to contract, for force of necessities and customs completely imposed, mainly in face of the essentiality of the services or agreed to goods. Ahead of as much and unexpected changes in the civil liames and of consumption, dictated for the globalization, it comes to surface the reflection if the private law e, more specifically, the civil law, meet prepared adequately to deal with these new parameters of the economy. The present dissertation has the intention to investigate if the globalization and the consequent neoliberalism, in this beginning of third millennium, will imply to revive of the principles and the basics paradigms of the contracts that consolidated and had kept, for more than two centuries, the liberal State. One notices that the study of this phenomenon it gains importance to the measure where if it aggravates the decline of the social State (Welfare State), with the embrittlement and the loss of the autonomy of the state authority, over all in countries of delayed modernity, as it is the case of Brazil, that presents deep deficiencies to give or to promote, with a minimum of quality and efficiency, essential considered public services to the collective and that if they find consecrated in the Federal Constitution, as basic rights or as goods constitutionally protecting, the example of the health, the education, the housing, the security, the providence, the insurance, the protection the maternity, the infancy and of aged and deficient. To the end, the incidence of constant basic rights of the man in the Constitution is concluded that, in the process of interpretation of the right contractual conflicts that have as object rights or goods constitutionally proteges, in the universe of the globalized perhaps economy and of the neoliberalismo, it consists in one of the few ways - unless the only one - that still they remain to over all deal with more adequately the contractual relations, exactly that if considers the presence of clauses generalities in the scope of the legislation infraconstitutional civil and of consumption, front the private detainers of social-economic power. To be able that it matters necessarily in disequilibrium between the parts, whose realignment depends on the effect and the graduation that if it intends to confer to the basic right in game in the private relation. The Constitution, when allowing the entailing of the basic rights in the privates relations, would be assuming contours of a statute basic of all the collective, giving protection to the man against the power, if public or independently private

Ordem econômica e política nacional de recursos hídricos: hermenêutica constitucional para o desenvolvimento sustentável

This research proposes a study about the interpretative techniques application that are compatible with the national legal system under the principles for Sustainable Development characterized in Brazilian Constitution. It verifies the actual possibility of reconciliation between national development and environment protection, with reflections under the water legal protection. It was proposed, therefore, to point subsidies for jurisdictional decisions involving development and the environmental goods, protected as constitutionally guaranteed principles. It was assumed that, both development and environment protection represents basic rights that are eventually placed in conflict situations, considering the many legitimate economic activities within the Brazilian State. A representative case analysis was elected within the current national scene, detailing the judicial and political conflict involving the Transboundery water Project from the São Francisco River Basin to another Northeastern river basin in Brazil. The implementation of several constitutional principles with elements from legal hermeneutics provides subsidies for the legal analysis about the conflict between development and environmental protection. It was assumed that the main discussion item about rights due to development today is the institutions influence and their results, among them the rules, laws and interpretative elements for the constitutional text objectivity, as the institutions credibility and the Supreme Courts interpretations. The use of interpretative resources for specific conflict situations about constitutional principles by Superior Courts, on the search, would bring a contributory factor for decision safety, related to sustainable development principles, elimination of inequalities and regional protecting for the environment. Specific aspects of Law No. 9.433/97 that introduced the National Water Resources Policy were examined, with its instruments, in order to specifically contextualize aspects of the Brazilian water resources management politics