846 resultados para C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
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This article examines environmental governance in Kosovo, with a particular focus on the energy sector. The article considers the degree to which the emerging model of environmental governance is characterised by hierarchical and non-hierarchical modes of coordination. We examine the roles of a number of domestic institutions and actors – ministries, agencies, and regulatory bodies– and the influence of external actors, including the EU, the US, and Serbia. The EU is building Kosovo’s own hierarchical governance capacity by strengthening domestic institutions, whilst the US focuses primarily on market liberalization, whilst simultaneously supporting EU efforts. Moreover, environmental policy change is not wholly or predominantly driven by domestic actors, which can partly be attributed to Kosovo’s limited domestic sovereignty. We conclude that the emerging model of environmental governance in Kosovo is characterized by a weak hierarchy, partly as a result of external actor involvement, which disincentivises the government from responding to domestic non-state actor pressure.
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The objective of this study was to develop a model to predict transport and fate of gasoline components of environmental concern in the Miami River by mathematically simulating the movement of dissolved benzene, toluene, xylene (BTX), and methyl-tertiary-butyl ether (MTBE) occurring from minor gasoline spills in the inter-tidal zone of the river. Computer codes were based on mathematical algorithms that acknowledge the role of advective and dispersive physical phenomena along the river and prevailing phase transformations of BTX and MTBE. Phase transformations included volatilization and settling. ^ The model used a finite-difference scheme of steady-state conditions, with a set of numerical equations that was solved by two numerical methods: Gauss-Seidel and Jacobi iterations. A numerical validation process was conducted by comparing the results from both methods with analytical and numerical reference solutions. Since similar trends were achieved after the numerical validation process, it was concluded that the computer codes algorithmically were correct. The Gauss-Seidel iteration yielded at a faster convergence rate than the Jacobi iteration. Hence, the mathematical code was selected to further develop the computer program and software. The model was then analyzed for its sensitivity. It was found that the model was very sensitive to wind speed but not to sediment settling velocity. ^ A computer software was developed with the model code embedded. The software was provided with two major user-friendly visualized forms, one to interface with the database files and the other to execute and present the graphical and tabulated results. For all predicted concentrations of BTX and MTBE, the maximum concentrations were over an order of magnitude lower than current drinking water standards. It should be pointed out, however, that smaller concentrations than the latter reported standards and values, although not harmful to humans, may be very harmful to organisms of the trophic levels of the Miami River ecosystem and associated waters. This computer model can be used for the rapid assessment and management of the effects of minor gasoline spills on inter-tidal riverine water quality. ^
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An iterative travel time forecasting scheme, named the Advanced Multilane Prediction based Real-time Fastest Path (AMPRFP) algorithm, is presented in this dissertation. This scheme is derived from the conventional kernel estimator based prediction model by the association of real-time nonlinear impacts that caused by neighboring arcs’ traffic patterns with the historical traffic behaviors. The AMPRFP algorithm is evaluated by prediction of the travel time of congested arcs in the urban area of Jacksonville City. Experiment results illustrate that the proposed scheme is able to significantly reduce both the relative mean error (RME) and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the predicted travel time. To obtain high quality real-time traffic information, which is essential to the performance of the AMPRFP algorithm, a data clean scheme enhanced empirical learning (DCSEEL) algorithm is also introduced. This novel method investigates the correlation between distance and direction in the geometrical map, which is not considered in existing fingerprint localization methods. Specifically, empirical learning methods are applied to minimize the error that exists in the estimated distance. A direction filter is developed to clean joints that have negative influence to the localization accuracy. Synthetic experiments in urban, suburban and rural environments are designed to evaluate the performance of DCSEEL algorithm in determining the cellular probe’s position. The results show that the cellular probe’s localization accuracy can be notably improved by the DCSEEL algorithm. Additionally, a new fast correlation technique for overcoming the time efficiency problem of the existing correlation algorithm based floating car data (FCD) technique is developed. The matching process is transformed into a 1-dimensional (1-D) curve matching problem and the Fast Normalized Cross-Correlation (FNCC) algorithm is introduced to supersede the Pearson product Moment Correlation Co-efficient (PMCC) algorithm in order to achieve the real-time requirement of the FCD method. The fast correlation technique shows a significant improvement in reducing the computational cost without affecting the accuracy of the matching process.
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An integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model of Everglades National Park (ENP) was developed using MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 modeling software. The model has a resolution of 400 meters, covers approximately 1050 square miles of ENP, includes 110 miles of drainage canals with a variety of hydraulic structures, and processes hydrological information, such as evapotranspiration, precipitation, groundwater levels, canal discharges and levels, and operational schedules. Calibration was based on time series and probability of exceedance for water levels and discharges in the years 1987 through 1997. Model verification was then completed for the period of 1998 through 2005. Parameter sensitivity in uncertainty analysis showed that the model was most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity of the regional Surficial Aquifer System, the Manning's roughness coefficient, and the leakage coefficient, which defines the canal-subsurface interaction. The model offers an enhanced predictive capability, compared to other models currently available, to simulate the flow regime in ENP and to forecast the impact of topography, water flows, and modifying operation schedules.
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Continuous high-resolution mass accumulation rates (MAR) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements from marine sediment records in the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic) have allowed the determination of the timing and the amplitude of the 'Fleuve Manche' (Channel River) discharges during glacial stages MIS 10, MIS 8, MIS 6 and MIS 4-2. These results have yielded detailed insight into the Middle and Late Pleistocene glaciations in Europe and the drainage network of the western and central European rivers over the last 350 kyr. This study provides clear evidence that the 'Fleuve Manche' connected the southern North Sea basin with the Bay of Biscay during each glacial period and reveals that 'Fleuve Manche' activity during the glaciations MIS 10 and MIS 8 was significantly less than during MIS 6 and MIS 2. We correlate the significant 'Fleuve Manche' activity, detected during MIS 6 and MIS 2, with the extensive Saalian (Drenthe Substage) and the Weichselian glaciations, respectively, confirming that the major Elsterian glaciation precedes the glacial MIS 10. In detail, massive 'Fleuve Manche' discharges occurred at ca 155 ka (mid-MIS 6) and during Termination I, while no significant discharges are found during Termination II. It is assumed that a substantial retreat of the European ice sheet at ca 155 kyr, followed by the formation of ice-free conditions between the British Isles and Scandinavia until Termination II, allowed meltwater to flow northwards through the North Sea basin during the second part of the MIS 6. We assume that this glacial pattern corresponds to the Warthe Substage glacial maximum, therefore indicating that the data presented here equates to the Drenthe and the Warthe glacial advances at ca 175-160 ka and ca 150-140 ka, respectively. Finally, the correlation of our records with ODP site 980 reveals that massive 'Fleuve Manche' discharges, related to partial or complete melting of the European ice masses, were synchronous with strong decreases in both the rate of deep-water formation and the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. 'Fleuve Manche' discharges over the last 350 kyr probably participated, with other meltwater sources, in the collapse of the thermohaline circulation by freshening the northern Atlantic surface water.
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This article analyses the influence that different criticism stages of proceedings exert in the habits of theatre attendance. The study is based on the survey carried out specifically for this research in which 210 people, who attended a theatrical representation, were interviewed in three different theatres in the city of Valencia. The study has revealed the mouth to mouth importance in the decision of attending the theatre and its stronger influence on the audiences who less frequently go to theatrical representations. The results obtained have also made clear the existence of a narrow relation between the advice effect of the theatre critics and the patterns of attendance to the theatre, just like its bigger influence between theatres with commercial orientation and those which are addressed to the broad audiences.
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The splicing factor SF3B1 is the most frequently mutated gene in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), and is strongly associated with the presence of ring sideroblasts (RS). We have performed a systematic analysis of cryptic splicing abnormalities from RNA sequencing data on hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) of SF3B1-mutant MDS cases with RS. Aberrant splicing events in many downstream target genes were identified and cryptic 3' splice site usage was a frequent event in SF3B1-mutant MDS. The iron transporter ABCB7 is a well-recognized candidate gene showing marked downregulation in MDS with RS. Our analysis unveiled aberrant ABCB7 splicing, due to usage of an alternative 3' splice site in MDS patient samples, giving rise to a premature termination codon in the ABCB7 mRNA. Treatment of cultured SF3B1-mutant MDS erythroblasts and a CRISPR/Cas9-generated SF3B1-mutant cell line with the nonsense-mediated decay (NMD) inhibitor cycloheximide showed that the aberrantly spliced ABCB7 transcript is targeted by NMD. We describe cryptic splicing events in the HSCs of SF3B1-mutant MDS, and our data support a model in which NMD-induced downregulation of the iron exporter ABCB7 mRNA transcript resulting from aberrant splicing caused by mutant SF3B1 underlies the increased mitochondrial iron accumulation found in MDS patients with RS.Leukemia advance online publication, 17 June 2016; doi:10.1038/leu.2016.149.
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Objective: To determine what, how, for whom, why, and in what circumstances educational interventions to improve the delivery of nutrition care by doctors and other healthcare professionals work?
Design: Realist synthesis following a published protocol and reported following Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Synthesis: Evolving Standards (RAMESES) guidelines. A multidisciplinary team searched Medline, CINAHL, ERIC, EMBASE, PsyINFO, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and Science Direct for published and unpublished (grey) literature. The team identified studies with varied designs; appraised their ability to answer the review question; identified relationships between contexts, mechanisms, and outcomes (CMOs); and entered them into a spreadsheet configured for the purpose. The final synthesis identified commonalities across CMO configurations.
Results: Over half of the 46 studies from which we extracted data originated from the US. Interventions that improved the delivery of nutrition care improved skills and attitudes rather than just knowledge; provided opportunities for superiors to model nutrition care; removed barriers to nutrition care in health systems; provided participants with local, practically relevant tools and messages; and incorporated non-traditional, innovative teaching strategies. Operating in contexts where student and qualified healthcare professionals provided nutrition care in both developed and developing countries, these interventions yielded health outcomes by triggering a range of mechanisms, which included: feeling competent; feeling confident and comfortable; having greater self-efficacy; being less inhibited by barriers in healthcare systems; and feeling that nutrition care was accepted and recognised.
Conclusion: These findings show how important it is to move education for nutrition care beyond the simple acquisition of knowledge. They show how educational interventions embedded within systems of healthcare can improve patients’ health by helping health students and professionals to appreciate the importance of delivering nutrition care and feel competent to deliver it.
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Coal ignited the industrial revolution. An organic sedimentary rock that energized the globe, transforming cities, landscapes and societies for generations, the importance of ‘King Coal’ to the development and consolidation of modernity has been well-recognised. And yet, as a critical factor in the production of modern architecture, coal—as well as other forms of energy—has been mostly overlooked.
From Appalachia to Lanarkshire, from the pits of northern France, Belgium and the Ruhr valley, to the monumental opencast excavations of Russia, China, Africa and Australia, mining operations have altered the immediate social and physical landscapes of coal-rich areas. But in contrast to its own underground conditions of production, the winning of coal, especially in the twentieth-century, has produced conspicuously enlightened and humane approaches to architecture and urbanism. In the twentieth century, educational buildings, holiday camps, hospitals, swimming pools, convalescent homes and housing prevailed alongside model collieries in mining settlements and areas connected to them. In 1930s Britain, pit head baths—funded by a levy on each ton produced—were often built in the International Style. Many won praise for architectural merit, appearing in Nicholas Pevsner’s guides to the buildings of England alongside cathedrals, village manors and Masonic halls as testimonies to the public good.
The deep relationships between coal and modernity, and the expressions of architecture it has articulated, in the collieries from which it was hewn, the landscape and towns it shaped, and the power stations and other infrastructure where it was used, offer innumerable opportunities to explore how coal produced architectures which embodied and expressed both social and technological conditions. While proposals on coal are preferred, we also welcome papers that interrogate the complexity, heterogeneity and hybridity of other forms of energy production and how these have also interceded into architectural form at a range of scales.
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International audience
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The benefits of calcium applications pre and postharvest on fruit storage ability have been mentioned in the bibliography. It was objective of this work to study the effect of calcium preharvest application in two different forms and calcium chloride application postharvest on 'Hayward' kiwifruit storage ability. Kiwifruit vines were sprayed with 0.03% CaCl2 or 0.03% CaO at one, three and four months before harvest. The control did not have any treatment. After harvest, half fruits were dipped for 2 min in a solution of 1% CaCl2, left to dry and stored at 0 degrees C. The other half was stored at the same temperature without any treatment. The commercial yield was not affected by treatments. During storage, fruits dipped in 1% CaCl2 softened slower and than fruits not treated. Weight loss was higher in fruits treated with CaO preharvest. SSC showed a significant decrease in fruits sprayed with CaO from 4 to 6 months storage. This work suggests that immersion of kiwifruit in 1% CaCl2 postharvest benefits storage life capacity; preharvest spraying with CaCl2 seems to be better than with CaO. However, we have to try higher calcium concentrations in order to get better results in storage ability but, without causing toxicity on the vines.
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Doutoramento em Economia
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The benefits of calcium applications pre and postharvest on fruit storage ability have been mentioned in the bibliography. It was objective of this work to study the effect of calcium preharvest application in two different forms and calcium chloride application postharvest on 'Hayward' kiwifruit storage ability. Kiwifruit vines were sprayed with 0.03% CaCl2 or 0.03% CaO at one, three and four months before harvest. The control did not have any treatment. After harvest, half fruits were dipped for 2 min in a solution of 1% CaCl2, left to dry and stored at 0 degrees C. The other half was stored at the same temperature without any treatment. The commercial yield was not affected by treatments. During storage, fruits dipped in 1% CaCl2 softened slower and than fruits not treated. Weight loss was higher in fruits treated with CaO preharvest. SSC showed a significant decrease in fruits sprayed with CaO from 4 to 6 months storage. This work suggests that immersion of kiwifruit in 1% CaCl2 postharvest benefits storage life capacity; preharvest spraying with CaCl2 seems to be better than with CaO. However, we have to try higher calcium concentrations in order to get better results in storage ability but, without causing toxicity on the vines.
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Monolithic materials cannot always satisfy the demands of today’s advanced requirements. Only by combining several materials at different length-scales, as nature does, the requested performances can be met. Polymer nanocomposites are intended to overcome the common drawbacks of pristine polymers, with a multidisciplinary collaboration of material science with chemistry, engineering, and nanotechnology. These materials are an active combination of polymers and nanomaterials, where at least one phase lies in the nanometer range. By mimicking nature’s materials is possible to develop new nanocomposites for structural applications demanding combinations of strength and toughness. In this perspective, nanofibers obtained by electrospinning have been increasingly adopted in the last decade to improve the fracture toughness of Fiber Reinforced Plastic (FRP) laminates. Although nanofibers have already found applications in various fields, their widespread introduction in the industrial context is still a long way to go. This thesis aims to develop methodologies and models able to predict the behaviour of nanofibrous-reinforced polymers, paving the way for their practical engineering applications. It consists of two main parts. The first one investigates the mechanisms that act at the nanoscale, systematically evaluating the mechanical properties of both the nanofibrous reinforcement phase (Chapter 1) and hosting polymeric matrix (Chapter 2). The second part deals with the implementation of different types of nanofibers for novel pioneering applications, trying to combine the well-known fracture toughness enhancement in composite laminates with improving other mechanical properties or including novel functionalities. Chapter 3 reports the development of novel adhesive carriers made of nylon 6,6 nanofibrous mats to increase the fracture toughness of epoxy-bonded joints. In Chapter 4, recently developed rubbery nanofibers are used to enhance the damping properties of unidirectional carbon fiber laminates. Lastly, in Chapter 5, a novel self-sensing composite laminate capable of detecting impacts on its surface using PVDF-TrFE piezoelectric nanofibers is presented.
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The coastal area along the Emilia-Romagna (ER), in the Italian side of the northern Adriatic Sea, is considered to implement an unstructured numerical ocean model with the aim to develop innovative tools for the coastal management and a forecasting system for the storm surge risk reduction. The Adriatic Sea has been the focus of several studies because of its peculiar dynamics driven by many forcings acting at basin and local scales. The ER coast is particularly exposed to storm surge events. In particular conditions, winds, tides and seicehs may combine and contribute to the flooding of the coastal area. The global sea level rise expected in the next decades will increase even more the hazard along the ER and Adriatic coast. Reliable Adriatic and Mediterranean scale numerical ocean models are now available to allow the dynamical downscaling of very high-resolution models in limited coastal areas. In this work the numerical ocean model SHYFEM is implemented in the Goro lagoon (named GOLFEM) and along the ER coast (ShyfER) to test innovative solutions against sea related coastal hazards. GOLFEM was succesfully applied to analyze the Goro lagoon dynamics and to assess the dynamical effects of human interventions through the analysis of what-if scenarios. The assessment of storm surge hazard in the Goro lagoon was carried out through the development of an ensemble storm surge forecasting system with GOLFEM using forcing from different operational meteorological and ocean models showing the fundamental importance of the boundary conditions. The ShyfER domain is used to investigate innovative solutions against storm surge related hazard along the ER coast. The seagrass is assessed as a nature-based solution (NBS) for coastal protection under present and future climate conditions. The results show negligible effects on sea level but sensible effects in reducing bottom current velocity.