Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach

This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IIHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and attractive alternative to existing methods. We found a clear structural break during the recent financial crisis. Prior to that, inflation persistence was high and fairly constant.

Motion analysis in terms of wireless video capsule endoscopy

El treball presentat suposa una visió general de l'"Endoscopia amb Càpsula de Vídeo Wireless" i la inspecció de sequències de contraccions intestinals amb les últimes tecnologies de visió per computador. Després de la observació preliminar dels fonaments mèdics requerits, la aplicació de visió per computador es presenta en aquestos termes. En essència, aquest treball proveïx una exhaustiva selecció, descripció i avaluació de cert conjunt de mètodes de processament d'imatges respecte a l'anàlisi de moviment, en el entorn de seqüències d'imatges preses amb una càpsula endoscòpica. Finalment, es presenta una aplicació de software per configurar i emprar de forma ràpida i fàcil un entorn experimental.

Regime-Switching Cointegration

We develop methods for Bayesian inference in vector error correction models which are subject to a variety of switches in regime (e.g. Markov switches in regime or structural breaks). An important aspect of our approach is that we allow both the cointegrating vectors and the number of cointegrating relationships to change when the regime changes. We show how Bayesian model averaging or model selection methods can be used to deal with the high-dimensional model space that results. Our methods are used in an empirical study of the Fisher effect.

Regime-Switching Cointegration

We develop methods for Bayesian inference in vector error correction models which are subject to a variety of switches in regime (e.g. Markov switches in regime or structural breaks). An important aspect of our approach is that we allow both the cointegrating vectors and the number of cointegrating relationships to change when the regime changes. We show how Bayesian model averaging or model selection methods can be used to deal with the high-dimensional model space that results. Our methods are used in an empirical study of the Fisher e ffect.

Genotype 3 is associated with rapid histological progression in chronic HCV infection

While several risk factors for the histological progression of chronic hepatitis C have been identified, the contribution of HCV genotypes to liver fibrosis evolution remains controversial. The aim of the present study was to assess independent predictors for fibrosis progression. Methods: We identified 1540 patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort database with at least one liver biopsy prior to antiviral treatment. Factors associated with fibrosis stage, steatosis and histological activity were assessed in univariate and multivariate regression models. Fibrosis progression rate per year was calculated in a subgroup of 1263 patients, in whom risk factors were assessed by cumulative incidence curves, logistic and linear regression models. Results: Independent risk factors for rapid fibrosis progression included male sex (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.25-2.21, P <0.001), age at infection (OR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.06-1.10, P <0.001), histological activity (OR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.61-2.85, P <0.001) and genotype 3 (OR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.43-2.72, P <0.001). Genotype 2 was associated with slow progression (OR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.30-0.89, P = 0.02), but this observation may be due to the decreased prevalence of genotype 2 over the last decades, leading to an overrepresentation of subjects with genotype 2 with a slow progression rate. Conclusion: This study shows a significant association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis. While assessing risk factors for fibrosis progression, the changing epidemiology of HCV genotypes over time needs to be taken into account.

Comparative chromatin analysis of Trypanosoma congolense

The chromatin of Trypanosoma congolense was analyzed by electron microscopy. The chromatin is organized as nucleosome filaments but does not form a 30 nm fiber. There are five groups of histones, including a histone H1-like protein, which has a molecular weight within the range of the core histones, and is extremely hydrophilic. Weak histone-histone interaction, a typical feature of trypanosoma chromatin, was found. These results are similar to those for T. cruzi and T. b. brucei, but differ significantly from those for higher eukaryotes. The results confirm the model of trypanosome chromatin, and support the theory of their early separation from the other eukaryotes during the evolution. T. congolensis is an excellent model for chromatin research on trypanosomes, because it is easy to cultivate and its chromatin has, a relatively high stability, compared to that of other trypanosomes.

Continuous Sunitinib treatment in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (SAKK) and Swiss Association for the Study of the Liver (SASL) multicenter phase II trial (SAKK 77/06).

BACKGROUND: Sunitinib (SU) is a multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor with antitumor and antiangiogenic activity. The objective of this trial was to demonstrate antitumor activity of continuous SU treatment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Key eligibility criteria included unresectable or metastatic HCC, no prior systemic anticancer treatment, measurable disease, and Child-Pugh class A or mild Child-Pugh class B liver dysfunction. Patients received 37.5 mg SU daily until progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival at 12 weeks (PFS12). RESULTS: Forty-five patients were enrolled. The median age was 63 years; 89% had Child-Pugh class A disease and 47% had distant metastases. PFS12 was rated successful in 15 patients (33%; 95% confidence interval, 20%-47%). Over the whole trial period, one complete response and a 40% rate of stable disease as the best response were achieved. The median PFS duration, disease stabilization duration, time to progression, and overall survival time were 1.5, 2.9, 1.5, and 9.3 months, respectively. Grade 3 and 4 adverse events were infrequent. None of the 33 deaths were considered drug related. CONCLUSION: Continuous SU treatment with 37.5 mg daily is feasible and has moderate activity in patients with advanced HCC and mild to moderately impaired liver dysfunction. Under this trial design (>13 PFS12 successes), the therapy is considered promising. This is the first trial describing the clinical effects of continuous dosing of SU in HCC patients on a schedule that is used in an ongoing, randomized, phase III trial in comparison with the current treatment standard, sorafenib (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT00699374).

Fibrin sealant for mesh fixation in endoscopic inguinal hernia repair: is there enough evidence for its routine use?

Fibrin sealing has recently evolved as a new technique for mesh fixation in endoscopic inguinal hernia repair. A comprehensive Medline search was carried out evaluating fibrin sealant for mesh fixation, and finally 12 studies were included (3 randomized trials, 3 nonrandomized trials, and 6 case series). The trials were assessed for operative time, seroma formation, recovery time, recurrence rate, and acute and chronic pain.There was a trend toward decreased operative times for fibrin sealing compared with mechanical stapling; however, the results for seroma formation remained contradictory. The most important finding was the reduced postoperative pain. Recovery times were lower after fibrin sealing and the recurrence rates showed no differences.Fibrin sealing for mesh fixation in the endoscopic inguinal hernia surgery is a promising alternative to mechanical stapling, which can be safely applied. As the overall quality of published data remains poor, further well-designed studies are needed until fibrin sealing can replace mechanical stapling as a new standard for mesh fixation.

Frailty and use of health and community services by community-dwelling older men: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

BACKGROUND: frailty is a concept used to describe older people at high risk of adverse outcomes, including falls, functional decline, hospital or nursing home admission and death. The associations between frailty and use of specific health and community services have not been investigated. METHODS: the cross-sectional relationship between frailty and use of several health and community services in the last 12 months was investigated in 1,674 community-dwelling men aged 70 or older in the Concord Health and Ageing in Men study, a population-based study conducted in Sydney, Australia. Frailty was assessed using a modified version of the Cardiovascular Health Study criteria. RESULTS: overall, 158 (9.4%) subjects were frail, 679 (40.6%) were intermediate (pre-frail) and 837 (50.0%) were robust. Frailty was associated with use of health and community services in the last 12 months, including consulting a doctor, visiting or being visited by a nurse or a physiotherapist, using help with meals or household duties and spending at least one night in a hospital or nursing home. Frail men without disability in activities of daily living were twice more likely to have seen a doctor in the previous 2 weeks than robust men (adjusted odds ratio 2.04, 95% confidence interval 1.21-3.44), independent of age, comorbidity and socio-economic status. CONCLUSION: frailty is strongly associated with use of health and community services in community-dwelling older men. The high level of use of medical services suggests that doctors and nurses could play a key role in implementation of preventive interventions.

GABA receptor subunits in human auditory cortex in normal and stroke cases.

GABA receptors are ubiquitous in the cerebral cortex and play a major role in shaping responses of cortical neurons. GABAA and GABAB receptor subunit expression was visualized by immunohistochemistry in human auditory areas from both hemispheres in 9 normal subjects (aged 43-85 years; time between death and fixation 6-24 hours) and in 4 stroke patients (aged 59-87 years; time between death and fixation 7-24 hours) and analyzed qualitatively for GABAA and semiquantitatively for GABAB receptor subunits. In normal brains, the primary auditory area (TC) and the surrounding areas TB and TA displayed distinct GABAA receptor subunit labeling with differences among cortical layers and areas. In postacute and chronic stroke we found a layer-selective downregulation of the alpha-2 subunit in the anatomically intact cerebral cortex of the intact and of the lesioned hemisphere, whereas the alpha-1, alpha-3 and beta-2/3 subunits maintained normal levels of expression. The GABAB receptors had a distinct laminar pattern in auditory areas and minor differences among areas. Unlike in other pathologies, there is no modulation of the GABAB receptor expression in subacute or chronic stroke.

Drug monographs on drugs which are frequently analysed in the context of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring = Arzneimittel-Monographien für Medikamente, die regelmässig im Rahmen des Therapeutic Drug Monitorings analysiert werden

In addition to the monographs which were published last year by the working group "Drug Monitoring" of the Swiss Society of Clinical Chemistry (SSCC) [1], new monographs have been written. The aim of these monographs is to give an overview of the most important information necessary for ordering a drug analysis or interpreting the results. Therefore, the targeted readers comprise laboratory health professionals and all receivers of laboratory reports. There is information provided on the indication for therapeutic drug monitoring, protein binding, metabolic pathways and enzymes involved, elimination half-life and elimination routes, and on therapeutic or toxic concentrations. Preanalytical considerations are of particular importance for therapeutic drug monitoring. Therefore, information is provided regarding a reasonable timing for the determination of drug concentrations as well as steady-state concentrations after changing the dose. Furthermore, the stability of the drug and its metabolite(s) after blood sampling is described. For readers with a specific interest in drug analysis, references to important publications are given. The number of monographs will be continuously enlarged. The updated files are presented on the homepage of the SSCC (www.sscc.ch).