893 resultados para Biogeography, Bioregions, Subregion, Statistical Modelling, GIS, Finite Mixture Models


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A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced based on the minimum integrated square error criterion combining local component analysis for the finite mixture model. We start with a Parzen window estimator which has the Gaussian kernels with a common covariance matrix, the local component analysis is initially applied to find the covariance matrix using expectation maximization algorithm. Since the constraint on the mixing coefficients of a finite mixture model is on the multinomial manifold, we then use the well-known Riemannian trust-region algorithm to find the set of sparse mixing coefficients. The first and second order Riemannian geometry of the multinomial manifold are utilized in the Riemannian trust-region algorithm. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with competitive accuracy to existing kernel density estimators.

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For the first time, we introduce a class of transformed symmetric models to extend the Box and Cox models to more general symmetric models. The new class of models includes all symmetric continuous distributions with a possible non-linear structure for the mean and enables the fitting of a wide range of models to several data types. The proposed methods offer more flexible alternatives to Box-Cox or other existing procedures. We derive a very simple iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood, whereas a direct unconditional maximization would be more difficult. We give simple formulae to estimate the parameter that indexes the transformation of the response variable and the moments of the original dependent variable which generalize previous published results. We discuss inference on the model parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated in one application to a real dataset.

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Esta tese é composta de três ensaios a respeito de política monetária. O primeiro ensaio aborda o canal em que as crises financeiras aumentam a ineficiência alocativa nos países emergentes. O segundo ensaio trata do grau de não-neutralidade da moeda no Brasil de acordo com o modelo de Golosov e Lucas (2007). O terceiro ensaio estima a inclinação da hazard function da precifi cação para o Brasil pela metodologia de Finite Mixture Model.

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This study aimed to compare the influence of single-standing or connected implants on stress distribution in bone of mandibular overdentures by means of two-dimensional finite element analysis. Two finite element models were designed using software (ANSYS) for 2 situations: bar-clip (BC) group-model of an edentulous mandible supporting an overdenture over 2 connected implants with BC system, and o'ring (OR) group-model of an edentulous mandible supporting an overdenture over 2 single-standing implants with OR abutments. Axial loads (100 N) were applied on either central (L1) or lateral (L2) regions of the models. Stress distribution was concentrated mostly in the cortical bone surrounding the implants. When comparing the groups, BC (L1, 52.0 MPa and L2, 74.2 MPa) showed lower first principal stress values on supporting tissue than OR (L1, 78.4 MPa and L2, 76.7 MPa). Connected implants with BC attachment were more favorable on stress distribution over peri-implant-supporting tissue for both loading conditions.

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Purpose: The objective of this study was to evaluate, using three-dimensional finite element analysis (3D FEA), the stress distribution in peri-implant bone tissue, implants, and prosthetic components of implant-supported single crowns with the use of the platform-switching concept. Materials and Methods: Three 3D finite element models were created to replicate an external-hexagonal implant system with peri-implant bone tissue in which three different implant-abutment configurations were represented. In the regular platform (RP) group, a regular 4.1-mm-diameter abutment (UCLA) was connected to regular 4.1-mm-diameter implant. The platform-switching (PS) group was simulated by the connection of a wide implant (5.0 mm diameter) to a regular 4.1-mm-diameter UCLA abutment. In the wide-platform (WP) group, a 5.0-mm-diameter UCLA abutment was connected to a 5.0-mm-diameter implant. An occlusal load of 100 N was applied either axially or obliquely on the models using ANSYS software. Results: Both the increase in implant diameter and the use of platform switching played roles in stress reduction. The PS group presented lower stress values than the RP and WP groups for bone and implant. In the peri-implant area, cortical bone exhibited a higher stress concentration than the trabecular bone in all models and both loading situations. Under oblique loading, higher intensity and greater distribution of stress were observed than under axial loading. Platform switching reduced von Mises (17.5% and 9.3% for axial and oblique loads, respectively), minimum (compressive) (19.4% for axial load and 21.9% for oblique load), and maximum (tensile) principal stress values (46.6% for axial load and 26.7% for oblique load) in the peri-implant bone tissue. Conclusion: Platform switching led to improved biomechanical stress distribution in peri-implant bone tissue. Oblique loads resulted in higher stress concentrations than axial loads for all models. Wide-diameter implants had a large influence in reducing stress values in the implant system. INT J ORAL MAXILLOFAC IMPLANTS 2011;26:482-491

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Purpose: This three-dimensional finite element analysis study evaluated the effect of different material combinations on stress distribution within metal-ceramic and all-ceramic single implant-supported prostheses. Materials and Methods: Three-dimensional finite element models reproducing a segment of the maxilla with a missing left first premolar were created. Five groups were established to represent different superstructure materials: GP, porcelain fused to gold alloy; GR, modified composite resin fused to gold alloy; TP, porcelain fused to titanium; TR, modified composite resin fused to titanium; and ZP, porcelain fused to zirconia. A 100-N vertical force was applied to the contact points of the crowns. All models were fixed in the superior region of bone tissue and in the mesial and distal faces of the maxilla section. Stress maps were generated by processing with finite element software. Results: Stress distribution and stress values of supporting bone were similar for the GP, GR, TP, and ZP models (1,574.3 MPa, 1,574.3 MPa, 1,574.3 MPa, and 1,574.2 MPa, respectively) and different for the TR model (1,838.3 MPa). The ZP model transferred less stress to the retention screw (785 MPa) than the other groups (939 MPa for GP, 961 MPa for GR, 1,010 MPa for TP, and 1,037 MPa for TR). Conclusion: The use of different materials to fabricate a superstructure for a single implant-supported prosthesis did not affect the stress distribution in the supporting bone. The retention screw received less stress when a combination of porcelain and zirconia was used. Int J Oral Maxillofac Implants 2011;26:1202-1209

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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In implant therapy, a peri-implant bone resorption has been noticed mainly in the first year after prosthesis insertion. This bone remodeling can sometimes jeopardize the outcome of the treatment, especially in areas in which short implants are used and also in aesthetic cases. To avoid this occurrence, the use of platform switching (PS) has been used. This study aimed to evaluate the biomechanical concept of PS with relation to stress distribution using two-dimensional finite element analysis. A regular matching diameter connection of abutment-implant (regular platform group [RPG]) and a PS connection (PS group [PSG]) were simulated by 2 two-dimensional finite element models that reproduced a 2-piece implant system with peri-implant bone tissue. A regular implant (prosthetic platform of 4.1 mm) and a wide implant (prosthetic platform of 5.0 mm) were used to represent the RPG and PSG, respectively, in which a regular prosthetic component of 4.1 mm was connected to represent the crown. A load of 100 N was applied on the models using ANSYS software. The RPG spreads the stress over a wider area in the peri-implant bone tissue (159 MPa) and the implant (1610 MPa), whereas the PSG seems to diminish the stress distribution on bone tissue (34 MPa) and implant (649 MPa). Within the limitation of the study, the PS presented better biomechanical behavior in relation to stress distribution on the implant but especially in the bone tissue (80% less). However, in the crown and retention screw, an increase in stress concentration was observed.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Background: Data on stress distribution in tooth-restoration interface with different ceramic restorative materials are limited. The aim of this chapter was to assess the stress distribution in the interface of ceramic restorations with laminate veneer or full-coverage crown with two different materials (lithium dissilicate and densely sintered aluminum oxide) under different loading areas through finite element analysis. Materials and Methods: Six two-dimensional finite element models were fabricated with different restorations on natural tooth: laminate veneer (IPS Empress, IPS Empress Esthetic and Procera AllCeram) or full-coverage crown (IPS e.max Press and Procera AllCeram). Two different loading areas (L) (50N) were also determined: palatal surface at 45° in relation to the long axis of tooth (L1) and perpendicular to the incisal edge (L2). A model with higid natural tooth was used as control. von Mises equivalent stress (σ vM) and maximum principal stress (σ max) were obtained on Ansys software. Results: The presence of ceramic restoration increased σ vM and σ max in the adhesive interface, mainly for the aluminum oxide (Procera AllCeram system) restorations. The full-coverage crowns generated higher stress in the adhesive interface under L1 while the same result was observed for the laminate veneers under L2. Conclusions: Lithium dissilicate and densely sintered aluminum oxide restorations exhibit different behavior due to different mechanical properties and loading conditions. © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

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This paper develops a novel full analytic model for vibration analysis of solid-state electronic components. The model is just as accurate as finite element models and numerically light enough to permit for quick design trade-offs and statistical analysis. The paper shows the development of the model, comparison to finite elements and an application to a common engineering problem. A gull-wing flat pack component was selected as the benchmark test case, although the presented methodology is applicable to a wide range of component packages. Results showed very good agreement between the presented method and finite elements and demonstrated the usefulness of the method in how to use standard test data for a general application. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

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In different regions of Brazil, population growth and economic development can degrade water quality, compromising watershed health and human supply. Because of its ability to combine spatial and temporal data in the same environment and to create water resources management (WRM) models, the Geographical Information System (GIS) is a powerful tool for managing water resources, preventing floods and estimating water supply. This paper discusses the integration between GIS and hydrological models and presents a case study relating to the upper section of the Paraíba do Sul Basin (Sao Paulo State portion), situated in the Southeast of Brazil. The case study presented in this paper has a database suitable for the basin's dimensions, including digitized topographic maps at a 50,000 scale. From an ArcGIS®/ArcHydro Framework Data Model, a geometric network was created to produce different raster products. This first grid derived from the digital elevation model grid (DEM) is the flow direction map followed by flow accumulation, stream and catchment maps. The next steps in this research are to include the different multipurpose reservoirs situated along the Paraíba do Sul River and to incorporate rainfall time series data in ArcHydro to build a hydrologic data model within a GIS environment in order to produce a comprehensive spatial-temporal model.