942 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs


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The authors screened 34 large cattle herds for the presence of Mycoplasma bovis infection by examining slaughtered cattle for macroscopic lung lesions, by culturing M. bovis from lung lesions and at the same time by testing sera for the presence of antibodies against M. bovis. Among the 595 cattle examined, 33.9% had pneumonic lesions, mycoplasmas were isolated from 59.9% of pneumonic lung samples, and 10.9% of sera from those animals contained antibodies to M.bovis. In 25.2% of the cases M. bovis was isolated from lungs with no macroscopic lesions. The proportion of seropositive herds was 64.7%. The average seropositivity rate of individuals was 11.3% but in certain herds it exceeded 50%. A probability model was developed for examining the relationship among the occurrence of pneumonia, the isolation of M. bovis from the lungs and the presence of M. bovis specific antibodies in sera.

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In this laboratory study, we monitored the buildup of biomass and concomitant shift in seawater carbonate chemistry over the course of a Trichodesmium bloom under different phosphorus (P) availability. During exponential growth, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) decreased, while pH increased until maximum cell densities were reached. Once P became depleted, DIC decreased even further and total alkalinity (TA) dropped, accompanied by precipitation of aragonite. Under P-replete conditions, DIC increased and TA remained constant in the postbloom phase. A diffusion-reaction model was employed to estimate changes in carbonate chemistry of the diffusive boundary layer. This study demonstrates that Trichodesmium can induce precipitation of aragonite from seawater and further provides possible explanations about underlying mechanisms.

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This paper reviews the literature, outlines practical implications, and discusses future studies in youth sport researc h. The literature is discussed in light of three potential benefits of youth sport participation 1) physic al health, 2) psycho- social development, and 3) motor skills acquisition. The ultimate objective of youth sport programs is to consider all the benefits of youth sport participation rather than focusing on one or two at the cost of the other(s). It is suggested that researchers, s port administrators, coaches, and parents work together to promote sporting activities and programs that are more likely to enhance children’s physical health, psychosocia l development and lifelong recreational or elite sport participation.

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Salinity gradient power (SGP) is the energy that can be obtained from the mixing entropy of two solutions with a different salt concentration. River estuary, as a place for mixing salt water and fresh water, has a huge potential of this renewable energy. In this study, this potential in the estuaries of rivers leading to the Persian Gulf and the factors affecting it are analysis and assessment. Since most of the full water rivers are in the Asia, this continent with the potential power of 338GW is a second major source of energy from the salinity gradient power in the world (Wetsus institute, 2009). Persian Gulf, with the proper salinity gradient in its river estuaries, has Particular importance for extraction of this energy. Considering the total river flow into the Persian Gulf, which is approximately equal to 3486 m3/s, the amount of theoretical extractable power from salinity gradient in this region is 5.2GW. Iran, with its numerous rivers along the coast of the Persian Gulf, has a great share of this energy source. For example, with study calculations done on data from three hydrometery stations located on the Arvand River, Khorramshahr Station with releasing 1.91M/ energy which is obtained by combining 1.26m3 river water with 0.74 m3 sea water, is devoted to itself extracting the maximum amount of extractable energy. Considering the average of annual discharge of Arvand River in Khorramshahr hydrometery station, the amount of theoretical extractable power is 955 MW. Another part of parameters that are studied in this research, are the intrusion length of salt water and its flushing time in the estuary that have a significant influence on the salinity gradient power. According to the calculation done in conditions HWS and the average discharge of rivers, the maximum of salinity intrusion length in to the estuary of the river by 41km is related to Arvand River and the lowest with 8km is for Helle River. Also the highest rate of salt water flushing time in the estuary with 9.8 days is related to the Arvand River and the lowest with 3.3 days is for Helle River. Influence of these two parameters on reduces the amount of extractable energy from salinity gradient power as well as can be seen in the estuaries of the rivers studied. For example, at the estuary of the Arvand River in the interval 8.9 days, salinity gradient power decreases 9.2%. But another part of this research focuses on the design of a suitable system for extracting electrical energy from the salinity gradient. So far, five methods have been proposed to convert this energy to electricity that among them, reverse electro-dialysis (RED) method and pressure-retarded osmosis (PRO) method have special importance in practical terms. In theory both techniques generate the same amount of energy from given volumes of sea and river water with specified salinity; in practice the RED technique seems to be more attractive for power generation using sea water and river water. Because it is less necessity of salinity gradient to PRO method. In addition to this, in RED method, it does not need to use turbine to change energy and the electricity generation is started when two solutions are mixed. In this research, the power density and the efficiency of generated energy was assessment by designing a physical method. The physical designed model is an unicellular reverse electro-dialysis battery with nano heterogenic membrane has 20cmx20cm dimension, which produced power density 0.58 W/m2 by using river water (1 g NaCl/lit) and sea water (30 g NaCl/lit) in laboratorial condition. This value was obtained because of nano method used on the membrane of this system and suitable design of the cell which led to increase the yield of the system efficiency 11% more than non nano ones.

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We propose a scheme in which the masses of the heavier leptons obey seesaw type relations. The light lepton masses, except the electron and the electron neutrino ones, are generated by one loop level radiative corrections. We work in a version of the 3-3-1 electroweak model that predicts singlets (charged and neutral) of heavy leptons beyond the known ones. An extra U(1)(Omega) symmetry is introduced in order to avoid the light leptons getting masses at the tree level. The electron mass induces an explicit symmetry breaking at U(1)(Omega). We discuss also the mixing matrix among four neutrinos. The new energy scale required is not higher than a few TeV.

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We propose a model for the quark-antiquark interaction in Minkowski space using the Covariant Spectator Theory. We show that with an equal-weighted scalar-pseudoscalar structure for the confining part of our interaction kernel the axial-vector Ward-Takahashi identity is preserved and our model complies with the Adler-zero constraint for π-π-scattering imposed by chiral symmetry.

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The fluid flow over bodies with complex geometry has been the subject of research of many scientists and widely explored experimentally and numerically. The present study proposes an Eulerian Immersed Boundary Method for flows simulations over stationary or moving rigid bodies. The proposed method allows the use of Cartesians Meshes. Here, two-dimensional simulations of fluid flow over stationary and oscillating circular cylinders were used for verification and validation. Four different cases were explored: the flow over a stationary cylinder, the flow over a cylinder oscillating in the flow direction, the flow over a cylinder oscillating in the normal flow direction, and a cylinder with angular oscillation. The time integration was carried out by a classical 4th order Runge-Kutta scheme, with a time step of the same order of distance between two consecutive points in x direction. High-order compact finite difference schemes were used to calculate spatial derivatives. The drag and lift coefficients, the lock-in phenomenon and vorticity contour plots were used for the verification and validation of the proposed method. The extension of the current method allowing the study of a body with different geometry and three-dimensional simulations is straightforward. The results obtained show a good agreement with both numerical and experimental results, encouraging the use of the proposed method.

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Background and Purpose: The right kidney has been less frequently used in live donor nephrectomy, because of the shorter length of the right renal vein (RRV) that is associated with technical difficulties and higher rates of venous thrombosis. In live open donor or deceased donor transplant nephrectomy, an additional cuff of the inferior vena cava is usually removed, but this is a more difficult and risky maneuver in laparoscopic nephrectomy. For this reason, laparoscopic right nephrectomy (LRN) for renal transplantation (RT) is not frequently performed in most medical institutions. We evaluate the difference between RRV and left renal vein (LRV) lengths in cadavers, as harvested for RT by three clamping methods. Our objective was to obtain information that could clarify when LRN for RT should be encouraged or avoided with regard to conventional surgery. Materials and Methods: Ninety adult fresh unfrozen cadavers were randomly divided into three groups of 30, according to the clamping device used: Satinsky, stapler, and Hem-o-lok clip. The abdominal viscera were removed through a median xyphopubic incision, and the veins were measured on the bench. Two lateral limits were used: The renal hilum and the tangential line of the renal poles. As for medial limits, the inferior vena cava or the laparoscopic clipping device on the RRV were used on the right side, while on the LRV, the medial border of the emergence of the adrenal vein was considered. After section of the renal vein, a slight traction of the extremity was applied for the measurement. All measurements were obtained three times using a metallic millimetric ruler, and the arithmetic mean was considered. The chi-square, one-way analysis of variance, and paired t tests were used for statistical analysis. Statistical significance was accepted at P <= 0.05. Results: The groups of cadavers were homogeneous in demographic characteristics. Regardless of the clamping method and considering the useful length of the LRV, the RRV was statistically smaller. The evaluation of the vein length did not depend on the lateral limit considered. Independent of the clamping method, on both sides, the lengths after the vein section were larger than before the section, a fact attributed to traction. Use of a stapler and a single Hem-o-lok presented the same waste of vein length on the right side. On average, the RRV was 13.7% shorter than the LRV. Conclusions: With the wide acceptance of laparoscopic live donor nephrectomy, the length difference between the veins of both kidneys is an important issue, and the right kidney is therefore used less than the left, compared with conventional surgery. This article represents the first step to quantify the anatomic length of renal veins in different situations. Certainly, more imagenologic or surgical studies should be carried out before decisions can be made for better selection of patients for LRN.

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We introduce the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS). CATT-BRAMS is an on-line transport model fully consistent with the simulated atmospheric dynamics. Emission sources from biomass burning and urban-industrial-vehicular activities for trace gases and from biomass burning aerosol particles are obtained from several published datasets and remote sensing information. The tracer and aerosol mass concentration prognostics include the effects of sub-grid scale turbulence in the planetary boundary layer, convective transport by shallow and deep moist convection, wet and dry deposition, and plume rise associated with vegetation fires in addition to the grid scale transport. The radiation parameterization takes into account the interaction between the simulated biomass burning aerosol particles and short and long wave radiation. The atmospheric model BRAMS is based on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), with several improvements associated with cumulus convection representation, soil moisture initialization and surface scheme tuned for the tropics, among others. In this paper the CATT-BRAMS model is used to simulate carbon monoxide and particulate material (PM(2.5)) surface fluxes and atmospheric transport during the 2002 LBA field campaigns, conducted during the transition from the dry to wet season in the southwest Amazon Basin. Model evaluation is addressed with comparisons between model results and near surface, radiosondes and airborne measurements performed during the field campaign, as well as remote sensing derived products. We show the matching of emissions strengths to observed carbon monoxide in the LBA campaign. A relatively good comparison to the MOPITT data, in spite of the fact that MOPITT a priori assumptions imply several difficulties, is also obtained.

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We describe an estimation technique for biomass burning emissions in South America based on a combination of remote-sensing fire products and field observations, the Brazilian Biomass Burning Emission Model (3BEM). For each fire pixel detected by remote sensing, the mass of the emitted tracer is calculated based on field observations of fire properties related to the type of vegetation burning. The burnt area is estimated from the instantaneous fire size retrieved by remote sensing, when available, or from statistical properties of the burn scars. The sources are then spatially and temporally distributed and assimilated daily by the Coupled Aerosol and Tracer Transport model to the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (CATT-BRAMS) in order to perform the prognosis of related tracer concentrations. Three other biomass burning inventories, including GFEDv2 and EDGAR, are simultaneously used to compare the emission strength in terms of the resultant tracer distribution. We also assess the effect of using the daily time resolution of fire emissions by including runs with monthly-averaged emissions. We evaluate the performance of the model using the different emission estimation techniques by comparing the model results with direct measurements of carbon monoxide both near-surface and airborne, as well as remote sensing derived products. The model results obtained using the 3BEM methodology of estimation introduced in this paper show relatively good agreement with the direct measurements and MOPITT data product, suggesting the reliability of the model at local to regional scales.

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We investigate a neutrino mass model in which the neutrino data is accounted for by bilinear R-parity violating supersymmetry with anomaly mediated supersymmetry breaking. We focus on the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) phenomenology, studying the reach of generic supersymmetry search channels with leptons, missing energy and jets. A special feature of this model is the existence of long-lived neutralinos and charginos which decay inside the detector leading to detached vertices. We demonstrate that the largest reach is obtained in the displaced vertices channel and that practically all of the reasonable parameter space will be covered with an integrated luminosity of 10 fb(-1). We also compare the displaced vertex reaches of the LHC and Tevatron.

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Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.