An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Jamaica

Climate change is a continuous process that began centuries ago. Today the pace of change has increased with greater rapidity because of global warming induced by anthropogenically generated greenhouse gases (GHG). Failure to effectively deal with the adverse outcomes can easily disrupt plans for sustainable economic development. Because of the failure of export agriculture over the last several decades, to provide the economic stimuli needed to promote economic growth and development, Jamaica, like many other island states in the Caribbean subregion, has come to rely on tourism as an instrument of transformation of the macro-economy. It is believed this shift in economic imperative would eventually provide the economic impetus needed to generate much needed growth and development. This assessment has shown that tourism is not only a leading earner of foreign exchange in Jamaica and a major creator of both direct and indirect jobs but, also, one of the principal contributors to the country‟s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The rapid expansion of the industry which occurred over the last several decades coupled with disregard for sound environmental practices has led to the destruction of coral reefs and the silting of wetlands. Because most of the industry is located along the coastal region it is extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Failure to address the predictable environmental challenges of climate change, with some degree of immediacy, will not only undermine, but quickly and seriously impair the capacity of industry to stimulate and contribute to the process of economic development. To this end, it important that further development of industry be characterised by sound economic and social planning and proper environmental practices.

Jamaica: Macro-socio-economic assessment of the damage done by flood rains and landslides May 2002

This assessment was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant damages to social and economic infrastructure and productive sectors as a result of a period of sustained and unusual rainfall associated with the convergence of a tropical wave over Jamaica and an area of high pressure to the north of the island resulting in periods of heavy and sustained rainfall over the period May 22 – June 2, 2002. A request for technical assistance was directed to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, on May 31, by the Planning Institute of Jamaica. In view of the recent training provided by the ECLAC Caribbean team in the use of the ECLAC methodology to a multi-disciplinary group of 58 persons spanning several sectors, it was felt that this event, while most unfortunate, nonetheless provided an opportune moment for the Jamaican “trainees” to utilize the skills transferred and to apply the methodology which had been taught. Consequently, ECLAC fielded a team of five persons a few days after the request had been made , to give the Jamaican counterpart team the opportunity to collect data of the type and using an approach well suited to the preparation of assessments such as this.

An assessment of big data for official statistics in the Caribbean: Challenges and opportunities

The data revolution for sustainable development has triggered interest in the use of big data for official statistics such that theUnited Nations Economic and Social Council considers it to be almost an obligation for statistical organizations to explore big data. Big data has been promoted as a more timely and cheaper alternative to traditional sources of official data, and one that offers great potential for monitoring the sustainable development goals. However, privacy concerns, technology and capacity remain significant obstacles to the use of big data. This study makes a case for incorporating big data in official statitics in the Caribbean by highlight the opportunities that big data provides for the subregion, while suggesting ways to manage the challenges. It serves as a starting point for further discussions on the many facets of big data and provides an initial platform upon which a Caribbean big data strategy could be built.

Assessment of the effects of disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1972-2010

The purpose of this work is to review ECLAC’s experience in assessing the economic and social impact of disasters. Toward that end, the database established according to assessment reports is described and the patterns of sectoral damage and losses from different types of events are defined.

Emotional assessment of patients with oral lichen planus

Background Oral lichen planus is a chronic immune-mediated disease with an estimated prevalence of 0.5-2.5% in the general population. Patients with oral lichen planus are often emotionally unstable and anxious and may develop concomitant systemic disorders. The objective of this study was to evaluate emotional characteristics of patients with oral lichen planus.Methods Two groups were studied: the first group consisted of 48 patients with a diagnosis of oral lichen planus, and the second group consisted of controls without the disease matched for age and gender at a proportion of 1 : 1. The emotional state of the patients was evaluated using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, SF-36 generic quality of life questionnaire, and the Self Reporting Questionnaire-20.Results and conclusions The present investigation demonstrated the presence of anxiety and depression in patients with oral lichen planus and a negative impact of the disorder on the patient's quality of life as indicated by impairment of the physical aspect, vitality, mental health, and social aspect domains. This could indicate that associated psychological treatment may be important in the follow-up of these patients.

Assessment of the effects of a parental intervention with mothers of children with internalizing problems

The present study assesses the effects of a semi-structured intervention held exclusively with mothers and its effects on internalizing problems, social skills of children, and positive and negative parenting practices. The single subject experimental design with three participants was adopted. The three mothers had, in baseline, children diagnosed with internalizing and externalizing problems. The instruments used were CBCL, RE-HSE-P, QRSH-Pais and PHQ-9, they were performed in baseline, pre-test, post-test, and follow-up assessments. The intervention held is characterized as semi-structured for it promotes the development of parental practices that are considered positive by the literature on behavior problems, however, contingently to the difficulties and demands of each case. The number of sessions performed for each case was 14, 15 and 17, which lasted about two hours each. The data were analyzed according to the instruments' norms and under the perspective of each singular case. The results found include remission of internalizing problems, increase in frequency of the children's social skills, increase in frequency of positive parental practices, and decrease in variability of negative parental practices. All the improvements were maintained on the six months follow-up, with the exception of variability on the negative parental practices of one client. Results are discussed in a context of mental health promotion and indicate the need for strategies to prevent internalizing problems in children.

An Assessment of Local Peoples Opinions of Community Conservation Initiatives in Relation to Livelihood Strategies in Kenya

Abstract This paper analyzed the changing livelihood strategies in Kenya, and their cultural impacts via a literature review. I then combined this understanding with the data I collected while in Kenya to examine the opinions local people have of community conservation initiatives, based on their changing livelihood strategies. I expected to find that the following factors would have an affect on the opinions local community members have of community conservation initiatives: livelihood strategy, gender, ethnicity, whether or not they believe the distribution of benefits coming from wildlife conservation is equitable, what issues they would like to see improved within community conservation initiatives, and their overall satisfaction with community conservation initiatives. Through correlation tests done using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Scientists) I found that all five of these factors do influence the perceptions local community members have of community conservation initiatives within the Amboseli region in Kenya.

Public Speaking in Social Phobia: A Pilot Study of Self-Ratings and Observers' Ratings of Social Skills

Objectives: The aim of this pilot study was to investigate whether patients with social anxiety disorder (SAD) differ from controls in the quality of skill-related behaviors displayed during a speech and in overall behavioral adequacy as perceived by observers and by the patients themselves. Design: A total of 18 SAD patients and 18 controls were screened by a diagnostic interview and took part in a 3-minute speech of their own choosing. For each videotaped speech, observers rated the adequacy of the skill-related behaviors and overall performance adequacy. After the experiment, participants were asked to rate their own overall performance adequacy. Results: The results showed that SAD patients exhibited significantly worse voice intonation and fluency of the speech, however no differences were found in global self-ratings. Moreover, the performance evaluations of the SAD group were consistent with the observers, while the controls evaluated their performance lower than the observers. Conclusions: The results are inconsistent with the cognitive model, because patients with SAD did not underestimate their performance. Compared with spontaneous interactions, the clear rules established for such social situations as speeches may result in less cognitive distortion for SAD patients. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Clin. Psychol. 68:397-402, 2012.

Cross-cultural adaptation and assessment of the reliability and validity of the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) for the Brazilian-Portuguese language

The use of patient-orientated questionnaires is of utmost importance in assessing the outcome of spine surgery. Standardisation, using a common set of outcome measures, is essential to aid comparisons across studies/in registries. The Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) is a short, multidimensional outcome instrument validated for patients with spinal disorders. This study aimed to produce a Brazilian-Portuguese version of the COMI. A cross-cultural adaptation of the COMI into Brazilian-Portuguese was carried out using established guidelines. 104 outpatients with chronic LBP (> 3 months) were recruited from a Public Health Spine Medical Care Centre. They completed a questionnaire booklet containing the newly translated COMI, and other validated symptom-specific questionnaires: Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and Roland Morris disability scale (RM), and a pain visual analogue scale. All patients completed a second questionnaire within 7-10 days to assess reproducibility. The COMI summary score displayed minimal floor and ceiling effects. On re-test, the responses for each individual domain of the COMI were within 1 category in 98% patients for the domain 'function', 96% for 'symptom-specific well-being', 97% for 'general quality of life', 99% for 'social disability' and 100% for 'work disability'. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC2,1) for COMI pain and COMI summary scores were 0.91-0.96, which compared favourably with the corresponding values for the RM (ICC, 0.99) and ODI (ICC, 0.98). The standard error of measurement for the COMI was 0.6, giving a "minimum detectable change" (MDC95%) of approximately 1.7 points i.e., the minimum change to be considered "real change" beyond measurement error. The COMI scores correlated as hypothesised (Rho, 0.4-0.8) with the other symptom-specific questionnaires. The reproducibility of the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the COMI was comparable to that of other language versions. The COMI scores correlated in the expected manner with existing but longer symptom-specific questionnaires suggesting good convergent validity for the COMI. The Brazilian-Portuguese COMI represents a valuable tool for Brazilian study-centres in future multicentre clinical studies and surgical registries.

Assessment of referrals to an OT consultation-liaison service: a retrospective and comparative study

The objective was to conduct a retrospective and comparative study of the requests for consultation-liaison (RCLs), during a period of six years, sent to the Occupational Therapy (OT) team that acts as the Consultation-liaison Service in Mental Health. During the studied period 709 RCLs were made and 633 patients received OT consultations. The comparison group was extended to 1 129 consecutive referrals to the psychiatric CL service, within the same period and that were also retrospectively reviewed. Regarding to RCLs to the OT team, most of the subjects were women with incomplete elementary schooling, with a mean age of 39.2 years, and were self-employed or retired. Internal Medicine was responsible for most of the RCLs. The mean length of hospitalization was 51 days and the mean rate of referral was 0.5%, with the most frequent reason for the request being related to the emotional aspects and the most frequent psychiatric diagnosis was mood disorder. It is concluded that there is a clear demand for the development of consultation-liaison in OT, particularly with regard to the promotion of mental health in general hospitals.

Integrated ecological risk assessment of pesticides in tropical ecosystems: A case study with carbofuran in Brazil

The aim of the present study is to contribute an ecologically relevant assessment of the ecotoxicological effects of pesticide applications in agricultural areas in the tropics, using an integrated approach with information gathered from soil and aquatic compartments. Carbofuran, an insecticide/nematicide used widely on sugarcane crops, was selected as a model substance. To evaluate the toxic effects of pesticide spraying for soil biota, as well as the potential indirect effects on aquatic biota resulting from surface runoff and/or leaching, field and laboratory (using a cost-effective simulator of pesticide applications) trials were performed. Standard ecotoxicological tests were performed with soil (Eisenia andrei, Folsomia candida, and Enchytraeus crypticus) and aquatic (Ceriodaphnia silvestrii) organisms, using serial dilutions of soil, eluate, leachate, and runoff samples. Among soil organisms, sensitivity was found to be E. crypticus < E. andrei < F. candida. Among the aqueous extracts, mortality of C. silvestrii was extreme in runoff samples, whereas eluates were by far the least toxic samples. A generally higher toxicity was found in the bioassays performed with samples from the field trial, indicating the need for improvements in the laboratory simulator. However, the tool developed proved to be valuable in evaluating the toxic effects of pesticide spraying in soils and the potential risks for aquatic compartments. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2012;31:437-445. (C) 2011 SETAC

Contextual and individual assessment of dental pain period prevalence in adolescents: a multilevel approach

Abstract Background Despite evidence that health and disease occur in social contexts, the vast majority of studies addressing dental pain exclusively assessed information gathered at individual level. Objectives To assess the association between dental pain and contextual and individual characteristics in Brazilian adolescents. In addition, we aimed to test whether contextual Human Development Index is independently associated with dental pain after adjusting for individual level variables of socio-demographics and dental characteristics. Methods The study used data from an oral health survey carried out in São Paulo, Brazil, which included dental pain, dental exams, individual socioeconomic and demographic conditions, and Human Development Index at area level of 4,249 12-year-old and 1,566 15-year-old schoolchildren. The Poisson multilevel analysis was performed. Results Dental pain was found among 25.6% (95%CI = 24.5-26.7) of the adolescents and was 33% less prevalent among those living in more developed areas of the city than among those living in less developed areas. Girls, blacks, those whose parents earn low income and have low schooling, those studying at public schools, and those with dental treatment needs presented higher dental-pain prevalence than their counterparts. Area HDI remained associated with dental pain after adjusting for individual level variables of socio demographic and dental characteristics. Conclusions Girls, students whose parents have low schooling, those with low per capita income, those classified as having black skin color and those with dental treatment needs had higher dental pain prevalence than their counterparts. Students from areas with low Human Development Index had higher prevalence of dental pain than those from the more developed areas regardless of individual characteristics.

Are cats (Felis catus) from multi-cat households more stressed? Evidence from assessment of fecal glucocorticoid metabolite analysis

Given the social and territorial features described in feral cats, it is commonly assumed that life in multi-cat households is stressful for domestic cats and suggested that cats kept as single pets are likely to have better welfare. On the other hand, it has been hypothesized that under high densities cats can organize themselves socially thus preventing stress when spatial dispersion is unavailable. This study was aimed at comparing the general arousal underpinning emotional distress in single housed cats and in cats from multi-cat households (2 and 3–4 cats) on the basis of fecal glucocorticoid metabolites (GCM) measured via enzyme immunoassay (EIA). GCM did not significantly vary as a function of living style (single, double or group-housing); highly stressed individuals were equally likely in the three groups. Young cats in multi-cat households had lower GCM, and overall cats that tolerate (as opposed to dislike) petting by the owners tended to have higher GCM levels. Other environmental aspects within cat houses (e.g. relationship with humans, resource availability) may play a more important role in day to day feline arousal levels than the number of cats per se

[Psychiatric assessment of alcoholic patients on a waiting list for liver transplantation : Which prognostic criteria are empirically proven?]

Liver disorders are the most frequent somatic complications of alcoholism. As 10‑20% of alcoholic patients will develop liver cirrhosis, this is the most frequent reason for premature death in alcoholic patients. Liver transplantation is now an accepted therapy for alcoholic liver cirrhosis but psychiatric assessment is usually required for patients entering a waiting list for transplantation. Prognostic criteria are controversially discussed, especially the so-called 6-month rule. Numerous studies and recent meta-analyses have indicated that duration of alcoholism, family history, age, sex, comorbid substance use and psychiatric disorders, noncompliance and social instability are outcome predictors. The 6-month criterion is not well proven but some studies are indicative. Possible therapeutic interventions for alcoholic patients on a waiting list are discussed.