Agent-based simulation of lock-in dynamics in a duopoly

Lock-in is observed in real world markets of experience goods; experience goods are goods whose characteristics are difficult to determine in advance, but ascertained upon consumption. We create an agent-based simulation of consumers choosing between two experience goods available in a virtual market. We model consumers in a grid representing the spatial network of the consumers. Utilising simple assumptions, including identical distributions of product experience and consumers having a degree of follower tendency, we explore the dynamics of the model through simulations. We conduct simulations to create a lock-in before testing several hypotheses upon how to break an existing lock-in; these include the effect of advertising and free give-away. Our experiments show that the key to successfully breaking a lock-in required the creation of regions in a consumer population. Regions arise due to the degree of local conformity between agents within the regions, which spread throughout the population when a mildly superior competitor was available. These regions may be likened to a niche in a market, which gains in popularity to transition into the mainstream.

Making motes intelligent:an agent-based approach to wireless sensor networks

In-Motes is a mobile agent middleware that generates an intelligent framework for deploying applications in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). In-Motes is based on the injection of mobile agents into the network that can migrate or clone following specific rules and performing application specific tasks. By doing so, each mote is given a certain degree of perception, cognition and control, forming the basis for its intelligence. Our middleware incorporates technologies such as Linda-like tuplespaces and federated system architecture in order to obtain a high degree of collaboration and coordination for the agent society. A set of behavioral rules inspired by a community of bacterial strains is also generated as the means for robustness of the WSN. In this paper, we present In-Motes and provide a detailed evaluation of its implementation for MICA2 motes.

Agent-based Anomalies Monitoring in Distributed Systems

In this paper an agent-based approach for anomalies monitoring in distributed systems such as computer networks, or Grid systems is proposed. This approach envisages on-line and off-line monitoring in order to analyze users’ activity. On-line monitoring is carried in real time, and is used to predict user actions. Off-line monitoring is done after the user has ended his work, and is based on the analysis of statistical information obtained during user’s work. In both cases neural networks are used in order to predict user actions and to distinguish normal and anomalous user behavior.

Intenzitásalapú modellezés és a mértékcsere (Intensity-based modeling and thje change of measure)

A dolgozatban a hitelderivatívák intenzitásalapú modellezésének néhány kérdését vizsgáljuk meg. Megmutatjuk, hogy alkalmas mértékcserével nemcsak a duplán sztochasztikus folyamatok, hanem tetszőleges intenzitással rendelkező pontfolyamat esetén is kiszámolható az összetett kár- és csődfolyamat eloszlásának Laplace-transzformáltja. _____ The paper addresses questions concerning the use of intensity based modeling in the pricing of credit derivatives. As the specification of the distribution of the lossprocess is a non-trivial exercise, the well-know technique for this task utilizes the inversion of the Laplace-transform. A popular choice for the model is the class of doubly stochastic processes given that their Laplace-transforms can be determined easily. Unfortunately these processes lack several key features supported by the empirical observations, e.g. they cannot replicate the self-exciting nature of defaults. The aim of the paper is to show that by using an appropriate change of measure the Laplace-transform can be calculated not only for a doubly stochastic process, but for an arbitrary point process with intensity as well. To support the application of the technique, we investigate the e®ect of the change of measure on the stochastic nature of the underlying process.

Structure-based modeling of head -related transfer functions towards interactive customization of binaural sound systems

One of the most popular techniques for creating spatialized virtual sounds is based on the use of Head-Related Transfer Functions (HRTFs). HRTFs are signal processing models that represent the modifications undergone by the acoustic signal as it travels from a sound source to each of the listener's eardrums. These modifications are due to the interaction of the acoustic waves with the listener's torso, shoulders, head and pinnae, or outer ears. As such, HRTFs are somewhat different for each listener. For a listener to perceive synthesized 3-D sound cues correctly, the synthesized cues must be similar to the listener's own HRTFs. ^ One can measure individual HRTFs using specialized recording systems, however, these systems are prohibitively expensive and restrict the portability of the 3-D sound system. HRTF-based systems also face several computational challenges. This dissertation presents an alternative method for the synthesis of binaural spatialized sounds. The sound entering the pinna undergoes several reflective, diffractive and resonant phenomena, which determine the HRTF. Using signal processing tools, such as Prony's signal modeling method, an appropriate set of time delays and a resonant frequency were used to approximate the measured Head-Related Impulse Responses (HRIRs). Statistical analysis was used to find out empirical equations describing how the reflections and resonances are determined by the shape and size of the pinna features obtained from 3D images of 15 experimental subjects modeled in the project. These equations were used to yield “Model HRTFs” that can create elevation effects. ^ Listening tests conducted on 10 subjects show that these model HRTFs are 5% more effective than generic HRTFs when it comes to localizing sounds in the frontal plane. The number of reversals (perception of sound source above the horizontal plane when actually it is below the plane and vice versa) was also reduced by 5.7%, showing the perceptual effectiveness of this approach. The model is simple, yet versatile because it relies on easy to measure parameters to create an individualized HRTF. This low-order parameterized model also reduces the computational and storage demands, while maintaining a sufficient number of perceptually relevant spectral cues. ^

Physics-based modeling of power system components for the evaluation of low-frequency radiated electromagnetic fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system's EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter's components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

Agent-Based Knowledge Discovery

Postprint

Distributed Learning: An Agent-Based Approach to Data-Mining

Peer reviewed

Eldi: an agent based museum robot

[EN]In this paper we will present Eldi, a mobile robot that has been in daily operation at the Elder Museum of Science and Technology at Las Palmas de Gran Canaria since December 1999. This is an ongoing project that was organized in three di erent stages, describing here the one that has been accomplished. The initial phase, termed \The Player", the second stage, actually under development, has been called "The Cicerone" and in a nal phase, termed \The Vagabond", Eldi will be allowed to move erratically across the Museum. This paper will focus on the accomplished rst stage to succinctly describe the physical robot and the environment and demos developed. Finally we will summarize some important lessons learnt.

Differences in grain growth of calcite: a field-based modeling approach

Normal grain growth of calcite was investigated by combining grain size analysis of calcite across the contact aureole of the Adamello pluton, and grain growth modeling based on a thermal model of the surroundings of the pluton. In an unbiased model system, i.e., location dependent variations in temperature-time path, 2/3 and 1/3 of grain growth occurs during pro- and retrograde metamorphism at all locations, respectively. In contrast to this idealized situation, in the field example three groups can be distinguished, which are characterized by variations in their grain size versus temperature relationships: Group I occurs at low temperatures and the grain size remains constant because nano-scale second phase particles of organic origin inhibit grain growth in the calcite aggregates under these conditions. In the presence of an aqueous fluid, these second phases decay at a temperature of about 350 °C enabling the onset of grain growth in calcite. In the following growth period, fluid-enhanced group II and slower group III growth occurs. For group II a continuous and intense grain size increase with T is typical while the grain growth decreases with T for group III. None of the observed trends correlate with experimentally based grain growth kinetics, probably due to differences between nature and experiment which have not yet been investigated (e.g., porosity, second phases). Therefore, grain growth modeling was used to iteratively improve the correlation between measured and modeled grain sizes by optimizing activation energy (Q), pre-exponential factor (k0) and grain size exponent (n). For n=2, Q of 350 kJ/mol, k0 of 1.7×1021 μmns−1 and Q of 35 kJ/mol, k0 of 2.5×10-5 μmns−1 were obtained for group II and III, respectively. With respect to future work, field-data based grain growth modeling might be a promising tool for investigating the influences of secondary effects like porosity and second phases on grain growth in nature, and to unravel differences between nature and experiment.

An Agent-based Classification Model

The major function of this model is to access the UCI Wisconsin Breast Cancer data-set[1] and classify the data items into two categories, which are normal and anomalous. This kind of classification can be referred as anomaly detection, which discriminates anomalous behaviour from normal behaviour in computer systems. One popular solution for anomaly detection is Artificial Immune Systems (AIS). AIS are adaptive systems inspired by theoretical immunology and observed immune functions, principles and models which are applied to problem solving. The Dendritic Cell Algorithm (DCA)[2] is an AIS algorithm that is developed specifically for anomaly detection. It has been successfully applied to intrusion detection in computer security. It is believed that agent-based modelling is an ideal approach for implementing AIS, as intelligent agents could be the perfect representations of immune entities in AIS. This model evaluates the feasibility of re-implementing the DCA in an agent-based simulation environment called AnyLogic, where the immune entities in the DCA are represented by intelligent agents. If this model can be successfully implemented, it makes it possible to implement more complicated and adaptive AIS models in the agent-based simulation environment.

Human Behavious Modelling for Discrete Event and Agent Based Simulation: A Case Study

This study is about the comparison of simulation techniques between Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and Agent Based Simulation (ABS). DES is one of the best-known types of simulation techniques in Operational Research. Recently, there has been an emergence of another technique, namely ABS. One of the qualities of ABS is that it helps to gain a better understanding of complex systems that involve the interaction of people with their environment as it allows to model concepts like autonomy and pro-activeness which are important attributes to consider. Although there is a lot of literature relating to DES and ABS, we have found none that focuses on exploring the capability of both in tackling the human behaviour issues which relates to queuing time and customer satisfaction in the retail sector. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify empirically the differences between these simulation techniques by stimulating the potential economic benefits of introducing new policies in a department store. To apply the new strategy, the behaviour of consumers in a retail store will be modelled using the DES and ABS approach and the results will be compared. We aim to understand which simulation technique is better suited to human behaviour modelling by investigating the capability of both techniques in predicting the best solution for an organisation in using management practices. Our main concern is to maximise customer satisfaction, for example by minimising their waiting times for the different services provided.

A Multi-Agent Simulation of Retail Management Practices

We apply Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (ABMS) to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents do offer potential for developing organizational capabilities in the future. Our multi-disciplinary research team has worked with a UK department store to collect data and capture perceptions about operations from actors within departments. Based on this case study work, we have built a simulator that we present in this paper. We then use the simulator to gather empirical evidence regarding two specific management practices: empowerment and employee development.

Modelling and analysing human behaviour in a department store using discrete event and agent based simulation

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is a very popular simulation technique in Operational Research. Recently, there has been the emergence of another technique, namely Agent Based Simulation (ABS). Although there is a lot of literature relating to DES and ABS, we have found less that focuses on exploring the capabilities of both in tackling human behaviour issues. In order to understand the gap between these two simulation techniques, therefore, our aim is to understand the distinctions between DES and ABS models with the real world phenomenon in modelling and simulating human behaviour. In achieving the aim, we have carried out a case study at a department store. Both DES and ABS models will be compared using the same problem domain which is concerning on management policy in a fitting room. The behaviour of staffs while working and customers’ satisfaction will be modelled for both models behaviour understanding.

Agent based simulation as a novel decision support tool for retail managers

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. We apply agent-based simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. Our multi-disciplinary research team draws upon expertise from work psychologists and computer scientists. Our research so far has led us to conduct case study work with a top ten UK retailer. Based on our case study experience and data we are developing a simulator that can be used to investigate the impact of management practices (e.g. training, empowerment, teamwork) on customer satisfaction and retail productivity.