Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

[Air pollution and asthma in childhood].

Exposure to outdoor air pollutants and passive tobacco smoke are common but avoidable worldwide risk factors for morbidity and mortality of individuals. In addition to well-known effects of pollutants on the cardiovascular system and the development of cancer, in recent years the association between air pollution and respiratory morbidity has become increasingly apparent. Not only in adults, but also in children with asthma and in healthy children a clear harmful effect of exposure towards air pollutants has been demonstrated in many studies. Among others increased pollution has been shown to result in more frequent and more severe respiratory symptoms, more frequent exacerbations, higher need for asthma medication, poorer lung function and increased visits to the emergency department and more frequent hospitalisations. While these associations are well established, the available data on the role of air pollution in the development of asthma seems less clear. Some studies have shown that increased exposure towards tobacco smoke and air pollution leads to an increase in asthma incidence and prevalence; others were not able to confirm those findings. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are different definitions of the outcome asthma, different methods for exposure estimation and differences in the populations studied with differing underlying genetic backgrounds. Regardless of this inconsistency, several mechanisms have already been identified linking air pollution with asthma development. Among these are impaired lung growth and development, immunological changes, genetic or epigenetic effects or increased predisposition for allergic sensitisation. What the exact interactions are and which asthmatic phenotypes will be influenced most by pollutants will be shown by future studies. This knowledge will then be helpful in exploring possible preventive measures for the individual and to help policy makers in deciding upon most appropriate regulations on a population level.

Real-time analysis of δ13C- and δD-CH4 in ambient air with laser spectroscopy: method development and first intercomparison results

In situ and simultaneous measurement of the three most abundant isotopologues of methane using mid-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy is demonstrated. A field-deployable, autonomous platform is realized by coupling a compact quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometer (QCLAS) to a preconcentration unit, called trace gas extractor (TREX). This unit enhances CH4 mole fractions by a factor of up to 500 above ambient levels and quantitatively separates interfering trace gases such as N2O and CO2. The analytical precision of the QCLAS isotope measurement on the preconcentrated (750 ppm, parts-per-million, µmole mole−1) methane is 0.1 and 0.5 ‰ for δ13C- and δD-CH4 at 10 min averaging time. Based on repeated measurements of compressed air during a 2-week intercomparison campaign, the repeatability of the TREX–QCLAS was determined to be 0.19 and 1.9 ‰ for δ13C and δD-CH4, respectively. In this intercomparison campaign the new in situ technique is compared to isotope-ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) based on glass flask and bag sampling and real time CH4 isotope analysis by two commercially available laser spectrometers. Both laser-based analyzers were limited to methane mole fraction and δ13C-CH4 analysis, and only one of them, a cavity ring down spectrometer, was capable to deliver meaningful data for the isotopic composition. After correcting for scale offsets, the average difference between TREX–QCLAS data and bag/flask sampling–IRMS values are within the extended WMO compatibility goals of 0.2 and 5 ‰ for δ13C- and δD-CH4, respectively. This also displays the potential to improve the interlaboratory compatibility based on the analysis of a reference air sample with accurately determined isotopic composition.

Revising the National Ambient Air Quality Standards: The integration of science and policy

Under the Clean Air Act, Congress granted discretionary decision making authority to the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This discretionary authority involves setting standards to protect the public's health with an "adequate margin of safety" based on current scientific knowledge. The Administrator of the EPA is usually not a scientist, and for the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for particulate matter (PM), the Administrator faced the task of revising a standard when several scientific factors were ambiguous. These factors included: (1) no identifiable threshold below which health effects are not manifested, (2) no biological basis to explain the reported associations between particulate matter and adverse health effects, and (3) no consensus among the members of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC) as to what an appropriate PM indicator, averaging period, or value would be for the revised standard. ^ This project recommends and demonstrates a tool, integrated assessment (IA), to aid the Administrator in making a public health policy decision in the face of ambiguous scientific factors. IA is an interdisciplinary approach to decision making that has been used to deal with complex issues involving many uncertainties, particularly climate change analyses. Two IA approaches are presented; a rough set analysis by which the expertise of CASAC members can be better utilized, and a flag model for incorporating the views of stakeholders into the standard setting process. ^ The rough set analysis can describe minimal and maximal conditions about the current science pertaining to PM and health effects. Similarly, a flag model can evaluate agreement or lack of agreement by various stakeholder groups to the proposed standard in the PM review process. ^ The use of these IA tools will enable the Administrator to (1) complete the NAAQS review in a manner that is in closer compliance with the Clean Air Act, (2) expand the input from CASAC, (3) take into consideration the views of the stakeholders, and (4) retain discretionary decision making authority. ^

Effects of air pollution on asthma hospitalization rates in different age groups in metropolitan cities of Korea

Many studies have shown relationships between air pollution and the rate of hospital admissions for asthma. A few studies have controlled for age-specific effects by adding separate smoothing functions for each age group. However, it has not yet been reported whether air pollution effects are significantly different for different age groups. This lack of information is the motivation for this study, which tests the hypothesis that air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admissions are significantly different by age groups. Each air pollutant's effect on asthmatic hospital admissions by age groups was estimated separately. In this study, daily time-series data for hospital admission rates from seven cities in Korea from June 1999 through 2003 were analyzed. The outcome variable, daily hospital admission rates for asthma, was related to five air pollutants which were used as the independent variables, namely particulate matter <10 micrometers (μm) in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Meteorological variables were considered as confounders. Admission data were divided into three age groups: children (<15 years of age), adults (ages 15-64), and elderly (≥ 65 years of age). The adult age group was considered to be the reference group for each city. In order to estimate age-specific air pollution effects, the analysis was separated into two stages. In the first stage, Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with cubic spline for smoothing were applied to estimate the age-city-specific air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admission rates by city and age group. In the second stage, the Bayesian Hierarchical Model with non-informative prior which has large variance was used to combine city-specific effects by age groups. The hypothesis test showed that the effects of PM10, CO and NO2 were significantly different by age groups. Assuming that the air pollution effect for adults is zero as a reference, age-specific air pollution effects were: -0.00154 (95% confidence interval(CI)= (-0.0030,-0.0001)) for children and 0.00126 (95% CI = (0.0006, 0.0019)) for the elderly for PM 10; -0.0195 (95% CI = (-0.0386,-0.0004)) for children for CO; and 0.00494 (95% CI = (0.0028, 0.0071)) for the elderly for NO2. Relative rates (RRs) were 1.008 (95% CI = (1.000-1.017)) in adults and 1.021 (95% CI = (1.012-1.030)) in the elderly for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 , 1.019 (95% CI = (1.005-1.033)) in adults and 1.022 (95% CI = (1.012-1.033)) in the elderly for every 0.1 part per million (ppm) increase of CO; 1.006 (95%CI = (1.002-1.009)) and 1.019 (95%CI = (1.007-1.032)) in the elderly for every 1 part per billion (ppb) increase of NO2 and SO2, respectively. Asthma hospital admissions were significantly increased for PM10 and CO in adults, and for PM10, CO, NO2 and SO2 in the elderly.^

Impact of environmental regulations on lead concentrations in Texas ambient air and water: 1970--1990

In the last two decades, the significance of lead has been addressed in a number of environmental regulations at the national and state levels. This project investigated the environmental regulations (Clean Air Act and Amendments, 1970-1990 and Clean Water Act of 1977) and their cumulative effects on lead in ambient air and water in the state of Texas. For this purpose, historical records from the Texas Water Development Board, Texas Natural Resources Conservation Commission, and the United States Geological Survey have been assembled and analyzed for temporal and spatial trends. These trends might correspond to the phase out of lead in gasoline and other regulations.^ This study concluded that there is a significant correlation (p $\leq$.001) between environmental regulations of lead in gasoline and the concentration of lead in ambient air. Lead concentrations in ambient air have been reduced by over 90 percent in the past twenty years. An overall significant difference (p $\leq$.001) was found in mean (94, 15 respectively) lead concentrations in surface water between two time periods, one at the beginning of the twenty year period and one at the end of the study period. There has been an overall reduction of lead concentrations in surface water in Texas of approximately 84 percent. However, this reduction cannot be statistically associated with any one regulation. Groundwater data could not be analyzed for lead concentrations because of limitations of reporting data as "less than". Approximately two percent of the groundwater data was analyzed by Oneway ANOVA and no significant difference was found between the means (18, 19 respectively) of two time periods, 1977-1979 and 1988-1990. This data is consistent with the regulations having a contributory affect on declining concentrations, but other factors cannot be ruled out as having added to these declines. This study can also serve as a starting point for a more in-depth study of environmental regulations and their impact on the environment. ^

BENZENE TOXICITY AND THE OCCURRENCE OF BENZENE IN THE AMBIENT AIR OF THE HOUSTON AREA

This study was conducted by either literature review or actual field survey. Results are summarized as follows: (1) Long-term occupational exposure of workers to benzene vapor at levels of 3-7 ppm, 2-3 ppm and 1.6 ppm may result in a decreased level of leucocyte alkaline phosphates, an increased incidence of chromosome aberrations and an increased level of ALA in erythrocytes, respectively; (2) Benzene is capable of causing fetotoxic effects in animals at levels as low as 10 ppm by volume; (3) Exposure of animals to or less than 1 ppm benzene vapor may result in leucopenia, an inverse ratio of muscle antagonist chronaxy and a decreased level of ascorbic acid in fetus's and mother's liver as well as whole embryo; (4) Benzene is causally associated with the increased incidence of pancytopenia, including unicytopenia, bicytopenia and aplastic anemia, and chromosome aberrations in occupational exposure population, and at best benzene must also be considered as a leukemogen; (5) Since it can be emitted into the atmosphere from both man-made and natural sources, benzene in some concentrations is present everywhere in the various compartments of the environment; (6) The findings of the emission of benzene from certain natural sources indicate that reducing benzene to a zero-level of exposure is theoretically impossible; (7) The annual average of benzene concentration detected in the Houston ambient air is 2.50 ppb, which is about 2.4 times higher than the nation-wide annual average exposure level and may have been some health implications to the general public; (8) In the Houston area, stationary sources are more important than mobile sources in contributing to benzene in the ambient air. ^

Spatial analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality and air pollution in Harris County, Texas

The association between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was spatially analyzed for Harris County, Texas, at the census tract level. The objective was to assess how increased PM2.5 exposure related to CVD mortality in this area while controlling for race, income, education, and age. An estimated exposure raster was created for Harris County using Kriging to estimate the PM2.5 exposure at the census tract level. The PM2.5 exposure and the CVD mortality rates were analyzed in an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model and the residuals were subsequently assessed for spatial autocorrelation. Race, median household income, and age were all found to be significant (p<0.05) predictors in the model. This study found that for every one μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 exposure, holding age and education variables constant, an increase of 16.57 CVD deaths per 100,000 would be predicted for increased minimum exposure values and an increase of 14.47 CVD deaths per 100,000 would be predicted for increased maximum exposure values. This finding supports previous studies associating PM2.5 exposure with CVD mortality. This study further identified the areas of greatest PM2.5 exposure in Harris County as being the geographical locations of populations with the highest risk of CVD (i.e., predominantly older, low-income populations with a predominance of African Americans). The magnitude of the effect of PM2.5 exposure on CVD mortality rates in the study region indicates a need for further community-level studies in Harris County, and suggests that reducing excess PM2.5 exposure would reduce CVD mortality.^

Associations between ambient levels of combustion pollutants and small for gestational age infants in Texas

There is scant evidence regarding the associations between ambient levels of combustion pollutants and small for gestational age (SGA) infants. No studies of this type have been completed in the Southern United States. The main objective of the project presented was to determine associations between combustion pollutants and SGA infants in Texas using three different exposure assessments. ^ Birth certificate data that contained information on maternal and infant characteristics were obtained from the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS). Exposure assessment data for the three aims came from: (1) U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA), (2) U.S. EPA Air Quality System (AQS), and (3) TX Department of Transportation (DOT), respectively. Multiple logistic regression models were used to determine the associations between combustion pollutants and SGA. ^ For the first study looked at annual estimates of four air toxics at the census tract level in the Greater Houston Area. After controlling for maternal race, maternal education, tobacco use, maternal age, number of prenatal visits, marital status, maternal weight gain, and median census tract income level, adjusted ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for exposure to PAHs (per 10 ng/m3), naphthalene (per 10 ng/m3), benzene (per 1 µg/m3), and diesel engine emissions (per 10 µg/m3) were 1.01 (0.97–1.05), 1.00 (0.99–1.01), 1.01 (0.97–1.05), and 1.08 (0.95–1.23) respectively. For the second study looking at Hispanics in El Paso County, AORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for increases of 5 ng/m3 for the sum of carcinogenic PAHs (Σ c-PAHs), 1 ng/m3 of benzo[a]pyrene, and 100 ng/m3 in naphthalene during the third trimester of pregnancy were 1.02 (0.97–1.07), 1.03 (0.96–1.11), and 1.01 (0.97–1.06), respectively. For the third study using maternal proximity to major roadways as the exposure metric, there was a negative association with increasing distance from a maternal residence to the nearest major roadway (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.94–0.97) per 1000 m); however, once adjusted for covariates this effect was no longer significant (AOR = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.96–1.00). There was no association with distance weighted traffic density (DWTD). ^ This project is the first to look at SGA and combustion pollutants in the Southern United States with three different exposure metrics. Although there was no evidence of associations found between SGA and the air pollutants mentioned in these studies, the results contribute to the body of literature assessing maternal exposure to ambient air pollution and adverse birth outcomes. ^

Political economy of low sulfurization and air pollution control policy in Japan : SOx emission reduction by fuel conversion

In the early stages of the development of Japan’s environmental policy, sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions, which seriously damage health, was the most important air pollution problem. In the second half of the 1960s and the first half of the 1970s, the measures against SOx emissions progressed quickly, and these emissions were reduced drastically. The most important factor of the reduction was the conversion to a low-sulfur fuel for large-scale fuel users, such as the electric power industry. However, industries started conversion to low-sulfur fuel not due to environmental concerns, but simply to reduce costs. Furthermore, the interaction among the various interests of the electric power industry, oil refineries, the central government, local governments, and citizens over the energy and environmental policies led to the measures against SOx emissions by fuel conversion.

Air pollution data classification by SOM Neural Network

Over the last ten years, Salamanca has been considered among the most polluted cities in México. This paper presents a Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) Neural Network application to classify pollution data and automatize the air pollution level determination for Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) in Salamanca. Meteorological parameters are well known to be important factors contributing to air quality estimation and prediction. In order to observe the behavior and clarify the influence of wind parameters on the SO2 concentrations a SOM Neural Network have been implemented along a year. The main advantages of the SOM is that it allows to integrate data from different sensors and provide readily interpretation results. Especially, it is powerful mapping and classification tool, which others information in an easier way and facilitates the task of establishing an order of priority between the distinguished groups of concentrations depending on their need for further research or remediation actions in subsequent management steps. The results show a significative correlation between pollutant concentrations and some environmental variables.

Effectiveness of improved cookstoves to reduce indoor air pollution in developing countries. The case of the cassamance natural subregion, Western Africa

The Spanish NGO "Alianza por la Solidaridad" has installed improved cookstoves in 3000 households during 2012 and 2013 to improve energy efficiency reducing fuelwood consumption and to improve in-door air quality. The type of cookstoves were Noflaye Jeeg and Noflaye Jaboot and were installed in the Cassamance Natural Subregion covering part of Senegal, The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. The Technical University of Madrid (UPM) has conducted a field study on a sample of these households to assess the effect of improved cookstoves on kitchen air quality. Measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and fine particle matter (PM2.5) were taken for 24-hr period before and after the installation of improved cook-stoves. The 24-hr mean CO concentrations were lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for Guinea-Bissau but higher for Senegal and Gambia, even after the installation of improved cookstoves. As for PM2.5 concentrations, 24-hr mean were always higher than these guidelines. However, improved cookstoves produced significant reductions on 24-hr mean CO and PM2.5 concentrations in Senegal and for mean and maximum PM2.5 concentration on Gambia. Although this variability needs to be explained by further research to determine which other factors could affect indoor air pollution, the study provided a better understanding of the problem and envisaged alternatives to be implemented in fu-ture phases of the NGO project.

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO2, O3, SO2, NH3, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.

Effectiveness of improved cookstoves to reduce indoor air pollution in developing countries. The case of the Cassamance Natural Subregion, Western Africa

The Spanish NGO "Alianza por la Solidaridad" has installed improved cookstoves in 3000 households during 2012 and 2013 to improve energy efficiency reducing fuelwood consumption and to improve indoor air quality. The type of cookstoves were Noflaye Jeeg and Noflaye Jaboot and were installed in the Cassamance Natural Subregion covering part of Senegal, The Gambia and Guinea-Bissau. The Technical University of Madrid (UPM) has conducted a field study on a sample of these households to assess the effect of improved cookstoves on kitchen air quality. Measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and fine particle matter (PM2.5) were taken for 24-hr period before and after the installation of improved cookstoves. The 24-hr mean CO concentrations were lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for Guinea-Bissau but higher for Senegal and Gambia, even after the installation of improved cookstoves. As for PM2.5 concentrations, 24-hr mean were always higher than these guidelines. However, improved cookstoves produced significant reductions on 24-hr mean CO and PM2.5 concentrations in Senegal and for mean and maximum PM2.5 concentration on Gambia. Although this variability needs to be explained by further research to determine which other factors could affect indoor air pollution, the study provided a better understanding of the problem and envisaged alternatives to be implemented in future phases of the NGO project.