Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts

The effectiveness of a decision maker is not demonstrated through access to better or more information. Effectiveness is demonstrated in an ability to use, more resourcefully, whatever limited information is available, and to portray its implications more usefully. This paper demonstrates how decision makers can make systemic decisions in situations characterized by extremely limited information and, furthermore, what form such decisions take.

Brazil’s 35 years-old quasi-stagnation: facts and theory

Brazil is growing around 1% per capita a year from 1981; this means for a country that is supposed to catch up, quasi-stagnation. Four historical new facts explain why growth was so low after the Real Plan: the reduction of public savings, and three facts that reduce private investments: the end of the unlimited supply of labor, a very high interest rate, and the 1990 dismantling of the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease, which represented a major competitive disadvantage for the manufacturing industry. New-developmental theory offers an explanation and two solutions for the problem, but does not underestimate the political economy problems involved

HOW TO EFFICIEN TLY INCORPORATE FACTS DEVICES IN OPTIMAL ACTIVE POWER FLOW MODEL

This paper presents for the first time how to easily incorporate facts devices in an optimal active power flow model such that an efficient interior-point method may be applied. The optimal active power flow model is based on a network flow approach instead of the traditional nodal formulation that allows the use of an efficiently predictor-corrector interior point method speed up by sparsity exploitation. The mathematical equivalence between the network flow and the nodal models is addressed, as well as the computational advantages of the former considering the solution by interior point methods. The adequacy of the network flow model for representing facts devices is presented and illustrated on a small 5-bus system. The model was implemented using Matlab and its performance was evaluated with the 3,397-bus and 4,075-branch Brazilian power system which show the robustness and efficiency of the formulation proposed. The numerical results also indicate an efficient tool for optimal active power flow that is suitable for incorporating facts devices.

Pole placement by coordinated tuning of Power System Stabilizers and FACTS-POD stabilizers

This work presents the application of the Decentralized Modal Control method for pole placement in multimachine power systems utilizing FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission Systems), STATCOM (Static Synchronous Compensator) and UPFC (Unified Power Flow Controller) devices. For this, these devices are equipped with supplementary damping controllers, denominated POD ( Power Oscillation Damping), achieving a coordinated project with local controllers (Power System Stabilizers - PSS). Comparative analysis on the function of damping of the FACTS, STATCOM and UPFC is performed using the New England System that has 10 generators, 39 buses and 46 transmission lines. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Melhora da estabilidade dinâmica de sistemas elétricos de potência multimáquinas usando o dispositivo facts thyristor-controlled series capacitor - TCSC

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Myths and facts in the chronicles of the conquest of Ancient Peru

The chronicles of historical sources are difficult because they are a mix of myths and facts experienced by their authors. Starting from this premise, this study analyzes some of the Spanish and indigenous sources on the conquest of the Inca people and the description of this world and people who were so different. Among the chroniclers chosen, the article highlights the reports by Jose de Acosta on the Mundus Novus and by Cieza de Leon and Garcilaso de la Vega on the myths of the first Inca chief; finally, Francisco de Xerez, Juan de Betanzos, among others, on the event of the imprisonment and murder of Atahualpa, which resulted in the conquest of the "Tahuantinsuyu" by the Spanish.

Stability analysis of power system including facts (TCSC) effects by direct method approach

The problem of power system stability including the effects of a flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) is approached. First, the controlled series compensation is considered in the machine against infinite bar system and its effects are taken into account by means of construction of a Lyapunov function (LF). This simple system is helpful in order to understand the form the device affects dynamic and transient performance of the power system. After, the multimachine case is considered and it is shown that the single-machine results apply to multimachine systems. An energy-form Lyapunov function is derived for the power system including the FACTS device and it is used to analyse damping and synchronizing effects due to the FACTS device in single-machine as well as in multimachine power systems. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stylized facts of income distribution in five countries of Latin America and general guidelines for a redistributive police

Includes bibliography

Comparison of FACTS STATCOM models for damping oscillations in power system due to small perturbations

This paper presents small-signal stability studies of a multimachine power system, considering Static Synchronous Compensators (STATCOM)and discussed control modes of the STATCOM. The Power Sensitivity Model(PSM)is used to represent the electric power system. The study is based on modal analysis and time domain simulations. The results obtained allow concluding that the STATCOM improves the stabilization in the electric power system. © 2011 IEEE.

The export performance of Chilean firms: some stylized facts

Includes bibliography

The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: stylized facts

Includes bibliography

Comparação entre modelos do dispositivo FACTS STATCOM para o estudo da estabilidade a pequenas perturbações

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Ajuste de parâmetros de controladores suplementares (POD) através de redes neurais artificiais em dispositivos FACTS TCSC e SSSC

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estudo da estabilidade a pequenas perturbações de sistemas elétricos multimáquinas com dispositivos FACTS do tipo SSSC e controladores suplementares (POD e PSS)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)