Development of paper-based color test-strip for drug detection in aquatic environment: Application to oxytetracycline

The wide use of antibiotics in aquaculture has led to the emergence of resistant microbial species. It should be avoided/minimized by controlling the amount of drug employed in fish farming. For this purpose, the present work proposes test-strip papers aiming at the detection/semi-quantitative determination of organic drugs by visual comparison of color changes, in a similar analytical procedure to that of pH monitoring by universal pH paper. This is done by establishing suitable chemical changes upon cellulose, attributing the paper the ability to react with the organic drug and to produce a color change. Quantitative data is also enabled by taking a picture and applying a suitable mathematical treatment to the color coordinates given by the HSL system used by windows. As proof of concept, this approach was applied to oxytetracycline (OXY), one of the antibiotics frequently used in aquaculture. A bottom-up modification of paper was established, starting by the reaction of the glucose moieties on the paper with 3-triethoxysilylpropylamine (APTES). The so-formed amine layer allowed binding to a metal ion by coordination chemistry, while the metal ion reacted after with the drug to produce a colored compound. The most suitable metals to carry out such modification were selected by bulk studies, and the several stages of the paper modification were optimized to produce an intense color change against the concentration of the drug. The paper strips were applied to the analysis of spiked environmental water, allowing a quantitative determination for OXY concentrations as low as 30 ng/mL. In general, this work provided a simple, method to screen and discriminate tetracycline drugs, in aquaculture, being a promising tool for local, quick and cheap monitoring of drugs.

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Periplasmic nitrate reductase revisited: a sulfur atom completes the sixth coordination of the catalytic molybdenum

J Biol Inorg Chem. 2008 Jun;13(5):737-53. doi: 10.1007/s00775-008-0359-6

Pandemia influenza A/H1N1 2009 em Portugal : estratégias de intervenção e saúde pública

RESUMO - Introdução: A necessidade de gestão da ameaça de uma pandemia obriga à gestão da incerteza absoluta. O desconhecimento científico quanto a uma série de factores tais como, as características dos vírus causadores de infecções, a efectividade das medidas de prevenção e de tratamento, contribuiu para a dificuldade de actuação a vários níveis. Face à evolução da situação epidemiológica mundial no campo da gripe, Portugal reviu e adaptou o seu plano de contingência para a gripe tendo sido homologado, em Janeiro de 2006, um novo plano – Plano de Contingência Nacional do Sector da Saúde para a Pandemia. Objectivos: O presente estudo apresenta como principais objectivos (1) a avaliação das estratégias de intervenção e respectiva implementação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, durante a pandemia da gripe de 2009; (2) a identificação dos pontos críticos na gestão das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, para preparação e resposta a futuras pandemias da gripe e, por último, (3) a definição de um modelo de acompanhamento, de monitorização e de avaliação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, que permita identificar os pontos importantes a ter em conta na implementação de boas práticas de saúde pública, nos diferentes níveis de prestação de cuidados de saúde, tendo como limitação o estado da arte dos sistemas de informação e avaliação, nacionais e internacionais, existentes. Material e Métodos: Para a avaliação das estratégias de intervenção e respectiva implementação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas bem como, para a identificação dos pontos críticos na gestão das respectivas medidas foram consideradas duas perspectivas: a avaliação dos resultados através do Relatório da Pandemia da Gripe e a avaliação dos resultados através das avaliações da OMS e da Euro OMS. É apresentado um modelo de acompanhamento, de monitorização e de avaliação das medidas de saúde pública não farmacológicas, a implementar na classe médica que esteve na “linha da frente”, durante a pandemia H1N1 2009 em Portugal, nos cuidados primários, hospitalares e intensivos. Resultados: Deverá existir uma representação dos profissionais de saúde para suporte das decisões de forma a assegurar uma representação alargada não só na preparação mas também, na implementação e na aplicação do Plano de Contingência. O processo de planemanto deverá ter acesso público com possibilidade de participação activa do cidadão na sua implementação. O Plano deve ter a capacidade para se adaptar à situação epidemiológica e, no terreno os exercícios de simulações durante o processo de planeamento são importantes. As orientações técnicas devem ser dinâmicas, práticas, específicas e úteis e, dever-se investir numa cultura de confiança (“right people communicating to right people”). As alterações ao plano devem partir da coordenação, comando e controlo que, nos vários níveis de decisão, devem definir claramente quem toma as decisões. Conclusões: As estratégias para as intervenções ao nível da saúde pública, continuam, no mundo hodierno a desempenhar um papel fundamental e crucial na contenção das pandemias. O modelo apresentado neste estudo procura uma abordagem objectiva para destacar não só, os elementos essenciais de actividades bem-sucedidas, mas também as áreas em que a experiência pandémica sugere que o futuro planeamento deve dar maior ênfase.

The effect of demand information sharing in a supply chain under demand uncertainty: a simulation study

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

Empowerment and intentions to resist future change: the moderating effect organization-based self-esteem

Nowadays, organizations face a constant need for adaptability, increasing the importance of change management. Our study focuses of how empowering leadership influences intentions to resist future changes, mediated by the effects of psychological and structural empowerment. From the responses of the two questionnaires (N1=230; Ntf=113), we found that empowering leadership fosters psychological and structural empowerment. Structural empowerment was the main driver in reducing intentions to resist future change when an employee has high organization-based self-esteem. Our findings add to the literature by examining how we can anticipate and manage change under an empowering context, building on social exchange and uncertainty reduction theories

An agent-based model to assess the attractiveness of industrial estates

This article describes the main approaches adopted in a study focused on planning industrial estates on a sub-regional scale. The study was supported by an agent-based model, using firms as agents to assess the attractiveness of industrial estates. The simulation was made by the NetLogo toolkit and the environment represents a geographical space. Three scenarios and four hypotheses were used in the simulation to test the impact of different policies on the attractiveness of industrial estates. Policies were distinguished by the level of municipal coordination at which they were implemented and by the type of intervention. In the model, the attractiveness of industrial estates was based on the level of facilities, amenities, accessibility and on the price of land in each industrial estate. Firms are able to move and relocate whenever they find an attractive estate. The relocating firms were selected by their size, location and distance to an industrial estate. Results show that a coordinated policy among municipalities is the most efficient policy to promote advanced-qualified estates. In these scenarios, it was observed that more industrial estates became attractive, more firms were relocated and more vacant lots were occupied. Furthermore, the results also indicate that the promotion of widespread industrial estates with poor-quality infrastructures and amenities is an inefficient policy to attract firms.

Abstract computation in schizophrenia detection through artificial neural network based systems

Schizophrenia stands for a long-lasting state of mental uncertainty that may bring to an end the relation among behavior, thought, and emotion; that is, it may lead to unreliable perception, not suitable actions and feelings, and a sense of mental fragmentation. Indeed, its diagnosis is done over a large period of time; continuos signs of the disturbance persist for at least 6 (six) months. Once detected, the psychiatrist diagnosis is made through the clinical interview and a series of psychic tests, addressed mainly to avoid the diagnosis of other mental states or diseases. Undeniably, the main problem with identifying schizophrenia is the difficulty to distinguish its symptoms from those associated to different untidiness or roles. Therefore, this work will focus on the development of a diagnostic support system, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures, based on a blended of Logic Programming and Artificial Neural Networks approaches to computing, taking advantage of a novel approach to knowledge representation and reasoning, which aims to solve the problems associated in the handling (i.e., to stand for and reason) of defective information.

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

An innovative framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment with an application to existing reinforced concrete structures

A novel framework for probabilistic-based structural assessment of existing structures, which combines model identification and reliability assessment procedures, considering in an objective way different sources of uncertainty, is presented in this paper. A short description of structural assessment applications, provided in literature, is initially given. Then, the developed model identification procedure, supported in a robust optimization algorithm, is presented. Special attention is given to both experimental and numerical errors, to be considered in this algorithm convergence criterion. An updated numerical model is obtained from this process. The reliability assessment procedure, which considers a probabilistic model for the structure in analysis, is then introduced, incorporating the results of the model identification procedure. The developed model is then updated, as new data is acquired, through a Bayesian inference algorithm, explicitly addressing statistical uncertainty. Finally, the developed framework is validated with a set of reinforced concrete beams, which were loaded up to failure in laboratory.

Metabolic profiling and classification of propolis samples from Southern Brazil: an NMR-based platform coupled with machine learning

The chemical composition of propolis is affected by environmental factors and harvest season, making it difficult to standardize its extracts for medicinal usage. By detecting a typical chemical profile associated with propolis from a specific production region or season, certain types of propolis may be used to obtain a specific pharmacological activity. In this study, propolis from three agroecological regions (plain, plateau, and highlands) from southern Brazil, collected over the four seasons of 2010, were investigated through a novel NMR-based metabolomics data analysis workflow. Chemometrics and machine learning algorithms (PLS-DA and RF), including methods to estimate variable importance in classification, were used in this study. The machine learning and feature selection methods permitted construction of models for propolis sample classification with high accuracy (>75%, reaching 90% in the best case), better discriminating samples regarding their collection seasons comparatively to the harvest regions. PLS-DA and RF allowed the identification of biomarkers for sample discrimination, expanding the set of discriminating features and adding relevant information for the identification of the class-determining metabolites. The NMR-based metabolomics analytical platform, coupled to bioinformatic tools, allowed characterization and classification of Brazilian propolis samples regarding the metabolite signature of important compounds, i.e., chemical fingerprint, harvest seasons, and production regions.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Pre-clinical trials for Machado-Joseph Disease: Hypothesis-based and hypothesis-free therapeutic approaches

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Saúde

Fairness under uncertainty with indivisibilities

I analyze an economy with uncertainty in which a set of indivisible objects and a certain amount of money is to be distributed among agents. The set of intertemporally fair social choice functions based on envy-freeness and Pareto efficiency is characterized. I give a necessary and sufficient condition for its non-emptiness and propose a mechanism that implements the set of intertemporally fair allocations in Bayes-Nash equilibrium. Implementation at the ex ante stage is considered, too. I also generalize the existence result obtained with envy-freeness using a broader fairness concept, introducing the aspiration function.