Direkte generative Fertigung von Schmiedegesenken eröffnet neue Möglichkeiten

Umformwerkzeuge sind eine neue und bislang nicht erforschte Anwendung generativ gefertigter Werkzeuge. Der Vortrag präsentiert ein Fallbeispiel, bei dem ein typisches Schmiedeteil mit recht komplexer Geometrie erfolgreich unter Verwendung eines generativ gefertigten Schmiedegesenks hergestellt werden konnte. Die Marktanforderungen zur frühestmöglichen Verfügbarkeit echter Schmiedeteile werden dargestellt. Die gesamte Prozesskette von der 3D-CAD-Werkzeugkonstruktion über die Schmiedeprozesssimulation, das Laserstrahlschmelzen der Gesenkeinsätze und die Gesenkmontage bis hin zu den eigentlichen Schmiedeversuchen unter produktionsähnlichen Bedingungen wird dargestellt und mit konventioneller Schmiedegesenkkonstruktion und ‑fertigung verglichen. Die Vorteile und Besonderheiten der generativen Prozesskette werden herausgestellt. Die gefertigten Schmiedeteile werden hinsichtlich Formfüllung, Maßhaltigkeit und Gefüge mit konventionell geschmiedeten Teilen verglichen. Die Lieferzeit der generativ gefertigten Schmiedegesenke wird der von konventionell hergestellten gegenübergestellt, ebenso die Kosten, um die Vorteile des Einsatzes generativer Fertigung herauszustellen. Es werden Randbedingungen beschrieben, unter denen die generative Fertigung von Schmiedegesenken technisch und wirtschaftlich sinnvoll ist.

Funktionsintegration im Werkzeugbau durch laseradditive Fertigung

Werkzeugbauer stellen anspruchsvolle Spritzgießwerkzeuge als Einzelanfertigung oder in kleiner Stückzahl her. Dabei unterliegen sie einem hohen Zeit- und Kostendruck durch die Forderung der Kunden nach einer kurzen Time-to-Market und der Konkurrenz aus Niedriglohnländern. Eine Innovation des Werkzeugbaus zur Reduzierung von Zeit und Kosten ist die Integration von zusätzlichen Funktionen in bestehende Komponenten. Am Institut für Laser- und Anlagensystemtechnik der TU Hamburg-Harburg wurde in Zusammenarbeit mit Werkzeugbau Siegfried Hofmann und Concept Laser ein Druckluftauswerfersystem für Spritzgießwerkzeuge entwickelt. Dieses System kann klassische Auswerferstifte vollständig ersetzen. Die Integration von Druckluftauswerfern in laseradditiv gefertigte Werkzeugeinsätze mit konturnaher Kühlung erfolgt kostenneutral, da sich die Fertigungszeit des Einsatzes durch das zusätzliche System nicht verlängert und eine Druckluftsteuerung bereits in Spritzgießmaschinen vorhanden ist. Zusätzlich entfällt durch das Druckluftauswerfersystem das komplette mechanische Auswerferpaket. Durch diese Einsparungen reduzieren sich Zeit und Kosten für das Werkzeug.

Cancer screening - principles, evaluation and implementation

Screening for malignant disease aims to reduce the population risk of impaired health due to the tumor in question. Screening does not only entail testing but covers all steps required to achieve the intended reduction in risk, from the appropriate information of the population to a suitable therapy. Screening tests are performed in individuals free or unaware of any symptoms associated with the tumor. An essential condition is a recognizable pathological abnormality, which occurs without symptoms and represents a pre-clinical, early stage of the tumor. Overdiagnosis and overtreatment have only recently been recognized as important problems of screening for malignant disease. Overdiagnosis is defined as a screening-detected tumor that would never have led to symptoms. In prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer 50 % - 70 % of screening-detected cancers represent such overdiagnoses. Similarly, in the case of mammography screening 20 % - 30 % of screening-detected breast cancers are overdiagnoses. The evaluation of screening interventions is often affected by biases such as healthy screenee effects or length and lead time bias. Randomized controlled trials are therefore needed to examine the efficacy and effectiveness of screening interventions and to define the rate of adverse outcomes such as unnecessary diagnostic evaluations, overdiagnosis and overtreatment. Unfortunately there is no independent Swiss body comparable to the National Screening Committee in the United Kingdom or the United States Preventive Services Task Force, which examines screening tests and programs and develops recommendations. Clearly defined goals, a central organization responsible for inviting eligible individuals, documentation and quality assurance and balanced information of the public are important attributes of successful screening programs. In Switzerland the establishment of such programs is hampered by the highly fragmented, Federal health system which allows patients to access specialists directly.

Moving beyond transition outcomes: meta-analysis of remission rates in individuals at high clinical risk for psychosis

Recent evidence suggests that transition risks from initial clinical high risk (CHR) status to psychosis are decreasing. The role played by remission in this context is mostly unknown. The present study addresses this issue by means of a meta-analysis including eight relevant studies published up to January 2012 that reported remission rates from an initial CHR status. The primary effect size measure was the longitudinal proportion of remissions compared to non-remission in subjects with a baseline CHR state. Random effect models were employed to address the high heterogeneity across studies included. To assess the robustness of the results, we performed sensitivity analyses by sequentially removing each study and rerunning the analysis. Of 773 subjects who met initial CHR criteria, 73% did not convert to psychosis along a 2-year follow. Of these, about 46% fully remitted from the baseline attenuated psychotic symptoms, as evaluated on the psychometric measures usually employed by prodromal services. The corresponding clinical remission was estimated as high as 35% of the baseline CHR sample. The CHR state is associated with a significant proportion of remitting subjects that can be accounted by the effective treatments received, a lead time bias, a dilution effect, a comorbid effect of other psychiatric diagnoses.

Response to chemotherapy, recurrence and survival in advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations, compared to those without

Objectives. Previous studies have shown a survival advantage in ovarian cancer patients with Ashkenazi-Jewish (AJ) BRCA founder mutations, compared to sporadic ovarian cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to determine if this association exists in ovarian cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA mutations. In addition, we sought to account for possible "survival bias" by minimizing any lead time that may exist between diagnosis and genetic testing. ^ Methods. Patients with stage III/IV ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer and a non-Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1 or 2 mutation, seen for genetic testing January 1996-July 2007, were identified from genetics and institutional databases. Medical records were reviewed for clinical factors, including response to initial chemotherapy. Patients with sporadic (non-hereditary) ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal cancer, without family history of breast or ovarian cancer, were compared to similar cases, matched by age, stage, year of diagnosis, and vital status at time interval to BRCA testing. When possible, 2 sporadic patients were matched to each BRCA patient. An additional group of unmatched, sporadic ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients was included for a separate analysis. Progression-free (PFS) & overall survival (OS) were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were calculated for variables of interest. Matched pairs were treated as clusters. Stratified log rank test was used to calculate survival data for matched pairs using paired event times. Fisher's exact test, chi-square, and univariate logistic regression were also used for analysis. ^ Results. Forty five advanced-stage ovarian, fallopian tube and primary peritoneal cancer patients with non-Ashkenazi Jewish (non-AJ) BRCA mutations, 86 sporadic-matched and 414 sporadic-unmatched patients were analyzed. Compared to the sporadic-matched and sporadic-unmatched ovarian cancer patients, non-AJ BRCA mutation carriers had longer PFS (17.9 & 13.8 mos. vs. 32.0 mos., HR 1.76 [95% CI 1.13–2.75] & 2.61 [95% CI 1.70–4.00]). In relation to the sporadic- unmatched patients, non-AJ BRCA patients had greater odds of complete response to initial chemotherapy (OR 2.25 [95% CI 1.17–5.41]) and improved OS (37.6 mos. vs. 101.4 mos., HR 2.64 [95% CI 1.49–4.67]). ^ Conclusions. This study demonstrates a significant survival advantage in advanced-stage ovarian cancer patients with non-AJ BRCA mutations, confirming the previous studies in the Jewish population. Our efforts to account for "survival bias," by matching, will continue with collaborative studies. ^

Patenting genes and gene sequences: Analysis of public health implications and the law

At issue is whether or not isolated DNA is patent eligible under the U.S. Patent Law and the implications of that determination on public health. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office has issued patents on DNA since the 1980s, and scientists and researchers have proceeded under that milieu since that time. Today, genetic research and testing related to the human breast cancer genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 is conducted within the framework of seven patents that were issued to Myriad Genetics and the University of Utah Research Foundation between 1997 and 2000. In 2009, suit was filed on behalf of multiple researchers, professional associations and others to invalidate fifteen of the claims underlying those patents. The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which hears patent cases, has invalidated claims for analyzing and comparing isolated DNA but has upheld claims to isolated DNA. The specific issue of whether isolated DNA is patent eligible is now before the Supreme Court, which is expected to decide the case by year's end. In this work, a systematic review was performed to determine the effects of DNA patents on various stakeholders and, ultimately, on public health; and to provide a legal analysis of the patent eligibility of isolated DNA and the likely outcome of the Supreme Court's decision. ^ A literature review was conducted to: first, identify principle stakeholders with an interest in patent eligibility of the isolated DNA sequences BRCA1 and BRCA2; and second, determine the effect of the case on those stakeholders. Published reports that addressed gene patents, the Myriad litigation, and implications of gene patents on stakeholders were included. Next, an in-depth legal analysis of the patent eligibility of isolated DNA and methods for analyzing it was performed pursuant to accepted methods of legal research and analysis based on legal briefs, federal law and jurisprudence, scholarly works and standard practice legal analysis. ^ Biotechnology, biomedical and clinical research, access to health care, and personalized medicine were identified as the principle stakeholders and interests herein. Many experts believe that the patent eligibility of isolated DNA will not greatly affect the biotechnology industry insofar as genetic testing is concerned; unlike for therapeutics, genetic testing does not require tremendous resources or lead time. The actual impact on biomedical researchers is uncertain, with greater impact expected for researchers whose work is intended for commercial purposes (versus basic science). The impact on access to health care has been surprisingly difficult to assess; while invalidating gene patents might be expected to decrease the cost of genetic testing and improve access to more laboratories and physicians' offices that provide the test, a 2010 study on the actual impact was inconclusive. As for personalized medicine, many experts believe that the availability of personalized medicine is ultimately a public policy issue for Congress, not the courts. ^ Based on the legal analysis performed in this work, this writer believes the Supreme Court is likely to invalidate patents on isolated DNA whose sequences are found in nature, because these gene sequences are a basic tool of scientific and technologic work and patents on isolated DNA would unduly inhibit their future use. Patents on complementary DNA (cDNA) are expected to stand, however, based on the human intervention required to craft cDNA and the product's distinction from the DNA found in nature. ^ In the end, the solution as to how to address gene patents may lie not in jurisprudence but in a fundamental change in business practices to provide expanded licenses to better address the interests of the several stakeholders. ^

Desarrollo de un modelo para la caracterización termoeconómica de ciclos combinados de turbinas de gas y de vapor en condiciones de carga variable

En la actualidad, el interés por las plantas de potencia de ciclo combinado de gas y vapor ha experimentado un notable aumento debido a su alto rendimiento, bajo coste de generación y rápida construcción. El objetivo fundamental de la tesis es profundizar en el conocimiento de esta tecnología, insuficientemente conocida hasta el momento debido al gran número de grados de libertad que existen en el diseño de este tipo de instalaciones. El estudio se realizó en varias fases. La primera consistió en analizar y estudiar las distintas tecnologías que se pueden emplear en este tipo de centrales, algunas muy recientes o en fase de investigación, como las turbinas de gas de geometría variable, las turbinas de gas refrigeradas con agua o vapor del ciclo de vapor o las calderas de paso único que trabajan con agua en condiciones supercríticas. Posteriormente se elaboraron los modelos matemáticos que permiten la simulación termodinámica de cada uno de los componentes que integran las plantas, tanto en el punto de diseño como a cargas parciales. Al mismo tiempo, se desarrolló una metodología novedosa que permite resolver el sistema de ecuaciones que resulta de la simulación de cualquier configuración posible de ciclo combinado. De esa forma se puede conocer el comportamiento de cualquier planta en cualquier punto de funcionamiento. Por último se desarrolló un modelo de atribución de costes para este tipo de centrales. Con dicho modelo, los estudios se pueden realizar no sólo desde un punto de vista termodinámico sino también termoeconómico, con lo que se pueden encontrar soluciones de compromiso entre rendimiento y coste, asignar costes de producción, determinar curvas de oferta, beneficios económicos de la planta y delimitar el rango de potencias donde la planta es rentable. El programa informático, desarrollado en paralelo con los modelos de simulación, se ha empleado para obtener resultados de forma intensiva. El estudio de los resultados permite profundizar ampliamente en el conocimiento de la tecnología y, así, desarrollar una metodología de diseño de este tipo de plantas bajo un criterio termoeconómico. ABSTRACT The growing energy demand and the need of shrinking costs have led to the design of high efficiency and quick installation power plants. The success of combined cycle gas turbine power plants lies on their high efficiency, low cost and short construction lead time. The main objective of the work is to study in detail this technology, which is not thoroughly known owing to the great number of degrees of freedom that exist in the design of this kind of power plants. The study is divided into three parts. Firstly, the different technologies and components that could be used in any configuration of a combined cycle gas turbine power plant are studied. Some of them could be of recent technology, such as the variable inlet guide vane compressors, the H-technology for gas turbine cooling or the once-through heat recovery steam generators, used with water at supercritical conditions. Secondly, a mathematical model has been developed to simulate at full and part load the components of the power plant. At the same time, a new methodology is proposed in order to solve the equation system resulting for any possible power plant configuration. Therefore, any combined cycle gas turbine could be simulated at any part load condition. Finally a themoeconomic model is proposed. This model allows studying the power plant not only from a thermodynamic point of view but also from a thermoeconomic one. Likewise, it allows determining the generating costs or the cash flow, thus achieving a trade off between efficiency and cost. Likewise, the model calculates the part load range where the power plant is profitable. Once the thermodynamic and thermoeconomic models are developed, they are intensively used in order to gain knowledge in the combined cycle gas turbine technology and, in this way, to propose a methodology aimed at the design of this kind of power plants from a thermoeconomic point of view.

Analisi e riprogettazione dei processi aziendali in un’azienda di Global Service. Il caso A.C.R. S.p.A.

La tesi tratta dell'analisi e della riprogettazione dei processi in un'azienda di global service. Vengono pertanto illustrati le principali metodologie e teorie riguardanti il process management e gli strumenti di supporto più utilizzati per la modellazione dei processi. Viene inoltre presentato il caso riguardante l'azienda ACR SpA, in cui si è eseguita la riprogettazione dei processi critici al fine di migliorare sensibilmente i principali parametri di performance del sistema. Tale riprogettazione è stata finalizzata all'introduzione di un sistema di document management all'interno delle principali funzioni aziendali, grazie a cui si è potuto razionalizzare e automatizzare i processi ritenuti critici ottenendo una sensibile riduzione dei relativi lead time e costi di processo, quantificata attraverso KPI definiti ad hoc. In conclusione la tesi ha permesso di illustrare con un caso pratico l'applicazione degli strumenti di business process reengineering, evidenziandone i pregi e ribadendo l'importanza della continua ricerca di efficienza all'interno dei processi di business aziendali.

Computer aided design and manufacture of form-rolls

Cold roll forming of thin-walled sections is a very useful process in the sheet metal industry. However, the conventional method for the design and manufacture of form-rolls, the special tooling used in the cold roll forming process, is a very time consuming and skill demanding exercise. This thesis describes the establishment of a stand-alone minicomputer based CAD/CAM system for assisting the design and manufacture of form-rolls. The work was undertaken in collaboration with a leading manufacturer of thin-walled sections. A package of computer programs have been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in form-roll design and manufacture. The programs have been successfully implemented, as an integrated CAD/CAM software system, on the ICL PERQ minicomputer with graphics facilities. Thus, the developed CAD/CAM system is a single-user workstation, with software facilities to help the user to perform the conventional roll design activities including the design of the finished section, the flower pattern, and the form-rolls. A roll editor program can then be used to modify, if required, the computer generated roll profiles. As far as manufacturing is concerned, a special-purpose roll machining program and postprocessor can be used in conjunction to generate the NC control part-programs for the production of form-rolls by NC turning. Graphics facilities have been incorporated into the CAD/CAM software programs to display drawings interactively on the computer screen throughout all stages of execution of the CAD/CAM software. It has been found that computerisation can shorten the lead time in all activities dealing with the design and manufacture of form-rolls, and small or medium size manufacturing companies can gain benefits from the CAD/CM! technology by developing, according to its own specification, a tailor-made CAD/CAM software system on a low cost minicomputer.

Computer aided geometric design of form-rolls for NC manufacture

Conventional methods of form-roll design and manufacture for Cold Roll-Forming of thin-walled metal sections have been entirely manual, time consuming and prone to errors, resulting in inefficiency and high production costs. With the use of computers, lead time can be significantly improved, particularly for those aspects involving routine but tedious human decisions and actions. This thesis describes the development of computer aided tools for producing form-roll designs for NC manufacture in the CAD/CAM environment. The work was undertaken to modernise the existing activity of a company manufacturing thin-walled sections. The investigated areas of the activity, including the design and drafting of the finished section, the flower patterns, the 10 to 1 templates, and the rolls complete with pinch-difference surfaces, side-rolls and extension-contours, have been successfully computerised by software development . Data generated by the developed software can be further processed for roll manufacturing using NC lathes. The software has been specially designed for portability to facilitate its implementation on different computers. The Opening-Radii method of forming was introduced as a subsitute to the conventional method for better forming. Most of the essential aspects in roll design have been successfully incorporated in the software. With computerisation, extensive standardisation in existing roll design practices and the use of more reliable and scientifically-based methods have been achieved. Satisfactory and beneficial results have also been obtained by the company in using the software through a terminal linked to the University by a GPO line. Both lead time and productivity in roll design and manufacture have been significantly improved. It is therefore concluded that computerisation in the design of form-rolls for automation by software development is viable. The work also demonstrated the promising nature of the CAD/CAM approach.

Strategic development of transport systems: a study of the physical constraints on planning processes

Investment in transport infrastructure can be highly sensitive to uncertainty. The scale and lead time of strategic transport programmes are such that they require continuing policy support and accurate forecasting. Delay, cost escalation and abandonment of projects often result if these conditions are not present. In Part One the physical characteristics of infrastructure are identified as a major constraint on planning processes. The extent to which strategies and techniques acknowledge these constraints is examined. A simple simulation model is developed to evaluate the effects on system development of variations in the scale and lead time of investments. In Part Two, two case studies of strategic infrastructure investment are analysed. The absence of a policy consensus for airport location was an important factor in the delayed resolution of the Third London Airport issue. In London itself, the traffic and environmental effects of major highway investment ultimately resulted in the abandonment of plans to construct urban motorways. In both cases, the infrastructure implications of alternative strategies are reviewed with reference to the problems of uncertainty. In conclusion, the scale of infrastructure investment is considered the most important of the constraints on the processes of transport planning. Adequate appraisal of such constraints may best be achieved by evaluation more closely aligned to policy objectives.