Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Niobium filtration of conventional and high-frequency x-ray generator beams for intraoral radiography. Effects on absorbed doses, image density and contrast, and photon spectra

We have studied the effects of niobium beam filtration on absorbed doses, on image density and contrast, and on photon spectra with conventional and high-frequency dental x-ray generators. Added niobium reduced entry and superficial absorbed doses in periapical radiography by 9% to 40% with film and digital image receptors, decreased the radiation necessary to produce a given image density on E-speed film and reduced image contrast on D- and E-speed films. As shown by increased half-value layers for aluminum, titanium, and copper and by pulse-height analyses of beam spectra, niobium increased average beam energy by 6% to 19%. Despite the benefits of adding niobium on patient dose reduction and on narrowing the beams' energy spectra, the beam can be overhardened. Adding niobium, therefore, strikes the best balance between radiation dose reduction and beam attenuation, with its risks of increased exposure times, motion blur, and diminished image contrast, when it is used at modest thicknesses (30 μm) and at lower kVp (70) settings. © 1995 Mosby-Year Book, Inc.

Employment, growth and reforms in Jamaica

Includes bibliography

Baleen Whales: Conservation Issues and The Status Of The Most Endangered Populations

Most species of baleen whales were subject to intensive overexploitation by commercial whaling in this and previous centuries, and many populations were reduced to small fractions of their original sizes. Here, we review the status of baleen whale stocks, with an emphasis on those that are known or thought to be critically endangered. Current data suggest that, of the various threats potentially affecting baleen whales, only entanglement in fishing gear and ship strikes may be significant at the population level, and then only in those populations which are already at critically low abundance. The impact of some problems (vessel harassment, and commercial or aboriginal whaling) is at present probably minor. For others (contaminants, habitat degradation, disease), existing data either indicate no immediate cause for concern, or are insufficient to permit an assessment. While the prospect for many baleen whales appears good, there are notable exceptions; populations that are of greatest concern are those suffering from low abundance and associated problems, including (in some cases) anthropogenic mortality. These include: all Northern Right Whales Eubalaena glacialis, Bowhead Whales Balaena mysticetus of the Okhotsk Sea and various eastern Arctic populations, western Gray Whales Eschrichtius robustus, and probably many Blue Whale Balaenoptera musculus populations. We review the status of these populations and, where known, the issues potentially affecting their recovery. Although Humpback Whales Megaptera novaeangliae and Southern Right Whales Eubalaena australis were also heavily exploited by whaling, existing data indicate strong recovery in most studied populations of these species.

Bearded capuchin monkeys` and a human`s efficiency at cracking palm nuts with stone tools: field experiments

Wild bearded capuchins, Cebus libidinosus, in Fazenda Boa Vista, Brazil crack tough palm nuts using hammer stones. We analysed the contribution of intrinsic factors (body weight, behaviour), size of the nuts and the anvil surface (flat or pit) to the efficiency of cracking. We provided capuchins with local palm nuts and a single hammer stone at an anvil. From video we scored the capuchins` position and actions with the nut prior to each strike, and outcomes of each strike. The most efficient capuchin opened 15 nuts per 100 strikes (6.6 strikes per nut). The least efficient capuchin that succeeded in opening a nut opened 1.32 nuts per 100 strikes (more than 75 strikes per nut). Body weight and diameter of the nut best predicted whether a capuchin would crack a nut on a given strike. All the capuchins consistently placed nuts into pits. To provide an independent analysis of the effect of placing the nut into a pit, we filmed an adult human cracking nuts on the same anvil using the same stone. The human displaced the nut on proportionally fewer strikes when he placed it into a pit rather than on a flat surface. Thus the capuchins placed the nut in a more effective location on the anvil to crack it. Nut cracking as practised by bearded capuchins is a striking example of a plastic behaviour where costs and benefits vary enormously across individuals, and where efficiency requires years to attain. (C) 2009 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Welfare provision in Sweden and the dominant position of the Sap

There have been almost fifty years since Harry Eckstein' s classic monograph, A Theory of Stable Democracy (Princeton, 1961), where he sketched out the basic tenets of the “congruence theory”, which was to become one of the most important and innovative contributions to understanding democratic rule. His next work, Division and Cohesion in Democracy, (Princeton University Press: 1966) is designed to serve as a plausibility probe for this 'theory' (ftn.) and is a case study of a Northern democratic system, Norway. What is more, this line of his work best exemplifies the contribution Eckstein brought to the methodology of comparative politics through his seminal article, “ “Case Study and Theory in Political Science” ” (in Greenstein and Polsby, eds., Handbook of Political Science, 1975), on the importance of the case study as an approach to empirical theory. This article demonstrates the special utility of “crucial case studies” in testing theory, thereby undermining the accepted wisdom in comparative research that the larger the number of cases the better. Although not along the same lines, but shifting the case study unit of research, I intend to take up here the challenge and build upon an equally unique political system, the Swedish one. Bearing in mind the peculiarities of the Swedish political system, my unit of analysis is going to be further restricted to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, the Svenska Arbetare Partiet. However, my research stays within the methodological framework of the case study theory inasmuch as it focuses on a single political system and party. The Swedish SAP endurance in government office and its electoral success throughout half a century (ftn. As of the 1991 election, there were about 56 years - more than half century - of interrupted social democratic "reign" in Sweden.) are undeniably a performance no other Social Democrat party has yet achieved in democratic conditions. Therefore, it is legitimate to inquire about the exceptionality of this unique political power combination. Which were the different components of this dominance power position, which made possible for SAP's governmental office stamina? I will argue here that it was the end-product of a combination of multifarious factors such as a key position in the party system, strong party leadership and organization, a carefully designed strategy regarding class politics and welfare policy. My research is divided into three main parts, the historical incursion, the 'welfare' part and the 'environment' part. The first part is a historical account of the main political events and issues, which are relevant for my case study. Chapter 2 is devoted to the historical events unfolding in the 1920-1960 period: the Saltsjoebaden Agreement, the series of workers' strikes in the 1920s and SAP's inception. It exposes SAP's ascent to power in the mid 1930s and the party's ensuing strategies for winning and keeping political office, that is its economic program and key economic goals. The following chapter - chapter 3 - explores the next period, i.e. the period from 1960s to 1990s and covers the party's troubled political times, its peak and the beginnings of the decline. The 1960s are relevant for SAP's planning of a long term economic strategy - the Rehn Meidner model, a new way of macroeconomic steering, based on the Keynesian model, but adapted to the new economic realities of welfare capitalist societies. The second and third parts of this study develop several hypotheses related to SAP's 'dominant position' (endurance in politics and in office) and test them afterwards. Mainly, the twin issues of economics and environment are raised and their political relevance for the party analyzed. On one hand, globalization and its spillover effects over the Swedish welfare system are important causal factors in explaining the transformative social-economic challenges the party had to put up with. On the other hand, Europeanization and environmental change influenced to a great deal SAP's foreign policy choices and its domestic electoral strategies. The implications of globalization on the Swedish welfare system will make the subject of two chapters - chapters four and five, respectively, whereupon the Europeanization consequences will be treated at length in the third part of this work - chapters six and seven, respectively. Apparently, at first sight, the link between foreign policy and electoral strategy is difficult to prove and uncanny, in the least. However, in the SAP's case there is a bulk of literature and public opinion statistical data able to show that governmental domestic policy and party politics are in a tight dependence to foreign policy decisions and sovereignty issues. Again, these country characteristics and peculiar causal relationships are outlined in the first chapters and explained in the second and third parts. The sixth chapter explores the presupposed relationship between Europeanization and environmental policy, on one hand, and SAP's environmental policy formulation and simultaneous agenda-setting at the international level, on the other hand. This chapter describes Swedish leadership in environmental policy formulation on two simultaneous fronts and across two different time spans. The last chapter, chapter eight - while trying to develop a conclusion, explores the alternative theories plausible in explaining the outlined hypotheses and points out the reasons why these theories do not fit as valid alternative explanation to my systemic corporatism thesis as the main causal factor determining SAP's 'dominant position'. Among the alternative theories, I would consider Traedgaardh L. and Bo Rothstein's historical exceptionalism thesis and the public opinion thesis, which alone are not able to explain the half century social democratic endurance in government in the Swedish case.

Industrial accidents triggered by lightning: causes and consequences

Natural hazards affecting industrial installations could directly or indirectly cause an accident or series of accidents with serious consequences for the environment and for human health. Accidents initiated by a natural hazard or disaster which result in the release of hazardous materials are commonly referred to as Natech (Natural Hazard Triggering a Technological Disaster) accidents. The conditions brought about by these kinds of events are particularly problematic, the presence of the natural event increases the probability of exposition and causes consequences more serious than standard technological accidents. Despite a growing body of research and more stringent regulations for the design and operation of industrial activities, Natech accidents remain a threat. This is partly due to the absence of data and dedicated risk-assessment methodologies and tools. Even the Seveso Directives for the control of risks due to major accident hazards do not include any specific impositions regarding the management of Natech risks in the process industries. Among the few available tools there is the European Standard EN 62305, which addresses generic industrial sites, requiring to take into account the possibility of lightning and to select the appropriate protection measures. Since it is intended for generic industrial installations, this tool set the requirements for the design, the construction and the modification of structures, and is thus mainly oriented towards conventional civil building. A first purpose of this project is to study the effects and the consequences on industrial sites of lightning, which is the most common adverse natural phenomenon in Europe. Lightning is the cause of several industrial accidents initiated by natural causes. The industrial sectors most susceptible to accidents triggered by lightning is the petrochemical one, due to the presence of atmospheric tanks (especially floating roof tanks) containing flammable vapors which could be easily ignited by a lightning strike or by lightning secondary effects (as electrostatic and electromagnetic pulses or ground currents). A second purpose of this work is to implement the procedure proposed by the European Standard on a specific kind of industrial plant, i.e. on a chemical factory, in order to highlight the critical aspects of this implementation. A case-study plant handling flammable liquids was selected. The application of the European Standard allowed to estimate the incidence of lightning activity on the total value of the default release frequency suggested by guidelines for atmospheric storage tanks. Though it has become evident that the European Standard does not introduce any parameters explicitly pointing out the amount of dangerous substances which could be ignited or released. Furthermore the parameters that are proposed to describe the characteristics of the structures potentially subjected to lightning strikes are insufficient to take into account the specific features of different chemical equipment commonly present in chemical plants.

The Effect of Chronic Estrogen Administration on Same-Sex Social Behavior and Central Oxytocin Levels in Prairie Voles (Microtus ochrogaster)

The purpose of our study is to investigate the effects of chronic estrogen administration on same-sex interactions during exposure to a social stressor and on oxytocin (OT) levels in prairie voles (Microtus orchrogaster). Estrogen and OT are two hormones known to be involved with social behavior and stress. Estogen is involved in the transcription of OT and its receptor. Because of this, it is generally thought that estrogen upregulates OT, but evidence to support this assumption is weak. While estrogen has been shown to either increase or decrease stress, OT has been shown to have stress-dampening properties. The goal of our experiment is to determine how estrogen affects OT levels as well as behavior in a social stressor in the voles. In addition, estrogen is required for many opposite-sex interactions, but little is known about its influence on same-sex interactions. We hypothesized that prairie voles receiving chronic estrogen injections would show an increase in OT levels in the brain and alter behavior in response to a social stressor called the resident-intruder test. To test this hypothesis, 73 female prairie voles were ovariectomized and then administered daily injections of estrogen (0.05 ¿g in peanut oil, s.c.) or vehicle for 8 days. On the final day of injections, half of the voles were given the resident-intruder test, a stressful 5 min interaction with a same-sex stranger. Their behavior was video-recorded. These animals were then sacrificed either 10 minutes or 60 minutes after the conclusion of the test. Half of the animals (no stress group) were not given the resident-intruder test. After sacrifice, trunk blood and brains were collected from the animals. Videos of the resident-intruder tests were analyzed for pro-social and aggressive behavior. Density of OT-activated neurons in the brain was measured via pixel count using immunohistochemistry. No differences were found in pro-social behavior (focal sniffing, p = 0.242; focal initiated sniffing p = 0.142; focal initiated sniffing/focal sniffing, p = 0.884) or aggressive behavior (total time fighting, p= 0.763; number of fights, p= 0.148; number of strikes, p = 0.714). No differences were found in activation of OT neurons in the brain, neither in the anterior paraventricular nucleus (PVN) (pixel count p= 0.358; % area that contains pixelated neurons p = 0.443) nor in the medial PVN (pixel count p= 0.999; % area that contains pixelated neurons p = 0.916). These results suggest that estrogen most likely does not directly upregulate OT and that estrogen does not alter behavior in stressful social interactions with a same-sex stranger. Estrogen may prepare the animal to respond to OT, instead of increasing the production of the peptide itself, suggesting that we need to shift the framework in which we consider estrogen and OT interactions.

Federal Authority and the Development of Corporate Mining, 1807-1847

While the 1913-1914 copper country miners’ strike undoubtedly plays an important role in the identity of the Keweenaw Peninsula, it is worth noting that the model of mining corporations employing large numbers of laborers was not a foregone conclusion in the history of American mining. Between 1807 and 1847, public mineral lands in Missouri, in the Upper Mississippi Valley, and along the southern shore of Lake Superior were reserved from sale and subject to administration by the nation’s executive branch. By decree of the federal government, miners in these regions were lessees, not landowners. Yet, in the Wisconsin lead region especially, federal authorities reserved for independent “diggers” the right to prospect virtually unencumbered. In doing so, they preserved a comparatively egalitarian system in which the ability to operate was determined as much by luck as by financial resources. A series of revolts against federal authority in the early nineteenth century gradually encouraged officers in Washington to build a system in the copper country in which only wealthy investors could marshal the resources to both obtain permits and actually commence mining operations. This paper will therefore explore the role of the federal government in establishing a leasing system for public mineral lands in the years previous to the California Gold Rush, highlighting the development of corporate mining which ultimately set a stage for the wave of miners’ strikes in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

Post-9/11 Terrorism Threats, News Coverage, and Public Perceptions in the United States

Terrorists, policy-makers, and terrorism scholars have long assumed that the mere threat of terrorist strikes affects societies that have experienced actual acts of terrorism. For this reason, most definitions of terrorism include the threat of violent political acts against civilians. But so far research has neither validated this conventional wisdom nor demonstrated how actual and mass-mediated threat messages by terrorists and terror alerts and threat assessments by government officials affect the public in targeted states. This paper fills the gap providing evidence that who conveys such messages matters and that mass-mediated threat messages by al Qaeda leaders and announced alerts and threat assessments by U.S. administration officials had a significant impact on the American public’s threat perceptions in the post-9/11 years.

Modernity Strikes Back? A Historical Perspective on the Latest Increase in Interpersonal Violence (1960-1990)

There is a plethora of criminological explanations why criminal violence increased during the three decades between the early 1960s and the early 1990s. This paper argues that most available interpretations are lacking in three respects: they lack a historical perspective that anchors the three critical decades in a wider understanding of long-term trends; they take the nation-state as their unit of analysis and disregard important commonalities across the Western world; and they pay insufficient attention to different trends in broad categories of physical violence.This paper therefore takes a macro-level and long-term perspective on violent crime, focussing on European homicide during the past 160 years. It demonstrates that the period of increase was preceded by a long-term decline and convergence of homicide rates from the 1840s to the 1950s. Also, it shows that both the decline and the increase primarily resulted from temporal variation in the likelihood of physical aggression between men in public space. It argues that explanations of these common trends need to take into account broad long-term cultural change common to Western societies. In particular, the paper suggests that shifts in culturally transmitted and institutionally embedded ideals of the conduct of life may provide an explanation for long-term change in levels of interpersonal violence.

UsedSoft and the Big Bang Theory: Is the e-Exhaustion Meteor about to Strike?

Since the UsedSoft ruling of the CJEU in 2012, there has been the distinct feeling that – like the big bang - UsedSoft signals the start of a new beginning. As we enter this brave new world, the Copyright Directive will be read anew: misalignments in the treatment of physical and digital content will be resolved; accessibility and affordability for consumers will be heightened; and lock-in will be reduced as e-exhaustion takes hold. With UsedSoft as a precedent, the Court can do nothing but keep expanding its own ruling. For big bang theorists, it is only a matter of time until the digital first sale meteor strikes non-software downloads also. This paper looks at whether the UsedSoft ruling could indeed be the beginning of a wider doctrine of e-exhaustion, or if it is simply a one-shot comet restrained by provisions of the Computer Program Directive on which it was based. Fighting the latter corner, we have the strict word of the law; in the UsedSoft ruling, the Court appears to willingly bypass the international legal framework of the WCT. As far as expansion goes, the Copyright Directive was conceived specifically to implement the WCT, thus the legislative intent is clear. The Court would not, surely, invoke its modicum of creativity there also... With perhaps undue haste in a digital market of many unknowns, it seems this might well be the case. Provoking the big bang theory of e-exhaustion, the UsedSoft ruling can be read as distinctly purposive, but rather than having copyright norms in mind, the standard for the Court is the same free movement rules that underpin the exhaustion doctrine in the physical world. With an endowed sense of principled equivalence, the Court clearly wishes the tangible and intangible rules to be aligned. Against the backdrop of the European internal market, perhaps few legislative instruments would staunchly stand in its way. With firm objectives in mind, the UsedSoft ruling could be a rather disruptive meteor indeed.

Tertiary Minette and Melanephelinite Dikes, Wasatch Plateau, Utah - Records of Mantle Heterogeneities and Changing Tectonics

A swarm of minette and melanephelinite dikes is exposed over 2500 km2 in and near the Wasatch Plateau, central Utah, along the western margin of the Colorado Plateaus in the transition zone with the Basin and Range province. To date, 110 vertical dikes in 25 dike sets have been recognized. Strikes shift from about N80-degrees-W for 24 Ma dikes, to about N60-degrees-W for 18 Ma, to due north for 8-7 m.y. These orientations are consistent with a shift from east-west Oligocene compression associated with subduction to east-west late Miocene crustal extension. Minettes are the most common rock type; mica-rich minette and mica-bearing melanephelinite occurs in 24 Ma dikes, whereas more ordinary minette is found in 8-7 Ma dikes. One melanephelinite dike is 18 Ma. These mafic alkaline rocks are transitional to one another in modal and major element composition but have distinctive trace element patterns and isotopic compositions; they appear to have crystallized from primitive magmas. Major, trace element, and Nd-Sr isotopic data indicate that melanephelinite, which has similarities to ocean island basalt, was derived from small degree melts of mantle with a chondritic Sm/Nd ratio probably located in the asthenosphere, but it is difficult to rule out a lithospheric source. In contrast, mica-bearing rocks (mica melanephelinite and both types of minette) are more potassic and have trace element patterns with strong Nb-Ta depletions and Sr-Nd isotopic compositions caused by involvement with a component from heterogeneously enriched lithospheric mantle with long-term enrichment of Rb or light rare earth elements (REE) (epsilon Nd as low as - 15 in minette). Light REE enrichment must have occurred anciently in the mid-Proterozoic when the lithosphere was formed and is not a result of Cenozoic subduction processes. After about 25 Ma, foundering of the subducting Farallon plate may have triggered upwelling of warm asthenospheric mantle to the base of the lithosphere. Melanephelinite magma may have separated from the asthenosphere and, while rising through the lithosphere, provided heat for lithospheric magma generation. Varying degrees of interaction between melanephelinite and small potassic melt fractions derived from the lithospheric mantle can explain the gradational character of the melanephelinite to minette suite.

ER strikes again: Proteostasis Dysfunction In ALS

The precise contribution of endoplasmic reticulum (ER) chaperone protein disulfide isomerase (PDI) variants in human amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients to the pathogenesis of ALS remained unclear. In the present study, Woehlbier et al (2016) demonstrated that these PDI variants are capable of altering motor neuron morphology, impairing the expression of synaptic proteins, and compromising neuromuscular junction (NMJ) integrity.

Lithogeochemistry and fluid flow in the epithermal Veta Rublo base metal-silver deposit, Chonta Mine (Huancavelica, Perú)

The Chonta Mine (75º00’30” W & 13º04’30”S, 4495 to 5000 m absl), owned by Compañía Minera Caudalosa, operates a polymetallic Zn-Pb-Cu-Ag vein system of the low sulphidation epithermal type, hosted by cenozoic volcanics of dacitic to andesitic composition (Domos de Lava Formation). Veta Rublo, one of the main veins of the system, is worked underground to nearly 300 m. It strikes 60-80º NE and dips 60-70º SE; its width varies between 0.30 and 2.20m, and it crops out along 1 km, but is continued along strike by other veins, as Veta Caudalosa, for some 5 km. Typical metal contents are 7% Zn, 5% Pb, 0.4% Cu and 3 oz/t Ag, with quartz, sericite, sphalerite, galena, pyrite, chalcopyrite, fahlore as main minerals, and minor carbonate and sulphosalts.