Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Interaction of directional, neuromuscular and egocentric constraints on the stability of preferred bimanual coordination patterns

We investigated how the relative direction of limb movements in external space (iso- and non-isodirectionality), muscular constraints (the relative timing of homologous muscle activation) and the egocentric frame of reference (moving simultaneously toward/away the longitudinal axis of the body) contribute to the stability of coordinated movements. In the first experiment, we attempted to determine the respective stability of isodirectional and non-isodirectional movements in between-persons coordination. In a second experiment, we determined the effect of the relative direction in external space, and of muscular constraints, on pattern stability during a within-person bimanual coordination task. In the third experiment we dissociated the effects on pattern stability of the muscular constraints, relative direction and egocentric frame of reference. The results showed that (1) simultaneous activation of homologous muscles resulted in more stable performance than simultaneous activation of non-homologous muscles during within-subject coordination, and that (2) isodirectional movements were more stable than non-isodirectional movements during between-persons coordination, confirming the role of the relative direction of the moving limbs in the stability of bimanual coordination. Moreover, the egocentric constraint was to some extent found distinguishable from the effect of the relative direction of the moving limbs in external space, and from the effect of the relative timing of muscle activation. In summary, the present study showed that relative direction of the moving limbs in external space and muscular constraints may interact either to stabilize or destabilize coordination patterns. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

A yield architecture framework to explain adaptation of pearl millet to environmental stress

Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Análise do processo de implementação de políticas de saúde: Um estudo de caso baseado no enfoque da política institucional

O processo de implementação de políticas públicas tem se apresentado como o elo perdido da ação governamental. Apesar da importância desse processo, esta etapa carece de métodos de análises que deem conta de sua complexidade como forma de lhe garantir uma posição chave dentro do ciclo da análise de políticas públicas. A partir da adaptação do referencial da política institucional, proposta pelo grupo Francês Strategor, que analisa uma instituição sob quatro determinantes – estratégia, estrutura, decisão e identidade-, este estudo propõe-se a analisar o processo de implementação de uma política municipal de saúde voltada para Hipertensos e Diabéticos no município de Venda Nova do Imigrante/ES, avaliada como uma estratégia exitosa. Como resultado, esse estudo evidenciou que o processo exitoso de implementação da política avaliada pautou-se numa decisão participava e colegiada, no reconhecimento e valorização da autonomia profissional e na discussão democrática. Além disso, a estrutura institucional analisada proporcionou uma coordenação menos normativa, que favoreceu momentos de encontro entre o núcleo estratégico e os centros operacionais, rompendo com a excessiva verticalização das estruturas tradicionais. A análise do determinante identidade demonstrou uma apropriação dos valores e da missão institucional e um importante envolvimento dos atores, indicado pelo fortalecimento de parcerias e sinergias internas. A estratégia de implementação dessa política municipal mostrou-se potente no sentido de inverter a lógica do modelo de atenção, dentro de um processo de aprendizado, sendo este o grande diferencial competitivo de sucesso da instituição. A partir desses resultados, o referencial de Strategor se afirma como importante método de análise do processo de implementação, além de sua potência para indicar questões que colaborem para garantir à etapa de implementação uma posição de destaque dentro do ciclo da política pública.

A practical framework for the generation and selection of strategic plans of action, The relevance of timeframe considerations and a systems thinking approach

The paper proposes a methodology especially focused on the generation of strategic plans of action, emphasizing the relevance of having a structured timeframe classification for the actions. The methodology explicitly recognizes the relevance of long-term goals as strategic drivers, which must insure that the complex system is capable to effectively respond to changes in the environment. In addition, the methodology employs engineering systems techniques in order to understand the inner working of the system and to build up alternative plans of action. Due to these different aspects, the proposed approach features higher flexibility compared to traditional methods. The validity and effectiveness of the methodology has been demonstrated by analyzing an airline company composed by 5 subsystems with the aim of defining a plan of action for the next 5 years, which can either: improve efficiency, redefine mission or increase revenues.

GUIsurfer: A Reverse Engineering Framework for User Interface Software

GUIsurfer: A Reverse Engineering Framework for User Interface Software

On the discovery of business processes orchestration patterns

COORDINSPECTOR is a Software Tool aiming at extracting the coordination layer of a software system. Such a reverse engineering process provides a clear view of the actually invoked services as well as the logic behind such invocations. The analysis process is based on program slicing techniques and the generation of, System Dependence Graphs and Coordination Dependence Graphs. The tool analyzes Common Intermediate Language (CIL), the native language of the Microsoft .Net Framework, thus making suitable for processing systems developed in any .Net Framework compilable language. COORDINSPECTOR generates graphical representations of the coordination layer together with business process orchestrations specified in WSBPEL 2.0

Discovering coordination patterns

A large and growing amount of software systems rely on non-trivial coordination logic for making use of third party services or components. Therefore, it is of outmost importance to understand and capture rigorously this continuously growing layer of coordination as this will make easier not only the veri cation of such systems with respect to their original speci cations, but also maintenance, further development, testing, deployment and integration. This paper introduces a method based on several program analysis techniques (namely, dependence graphs, program slicing, and graph pattern analysis) to extract coordination logic from legacy systems source code. This process is driven by a series of pre-de ned coordination patterns and captured by a special purpose graph structure from which coordination speci cations can be generated in a number of di erent formalisms

Domain-Specific Language for Coordination patterns

The integration and composition of software systems requires a good architectural design phase to speed up communications between (remote) components. However, during implementation phase, the code to coordinate such components often ends up mixed in the main business code. This leads to maintenance problems, raising the need for, on the one hand, separating the coordination code from the business code, and on the other hand, providing mechanisms for analysis and comprehension of the architectural decisions once made. In this context our aim is at developing a domain-specific language, CoordL, to describe typical coordination patterns. From our point of view, coordination patterns are abstractions, in a graph form, over the composition of coordination statements from the system code. These patterns would allow us to identify, by means of pattern-based graph search strategies, the code responsible for the coordination of the several components in a system. The recovering and separation of the architectural decisions for a better comprehension of the software is the main purpose of this pattern language

Extracting and verifying coordination models from source code

Current software development relies increasingly on non-trivial coordination logic for com- bining autonomous services often running on di erent platforms. As a rule, however, in typical non-trivial software systems, such a coordination layer is strongly weaved within the application at source code level. Therefore, its precise identi cation becomes a major methodological (and technical) problem which cannot be overestimated along any program understanding or refactoring process. Open access to source code, as granted in OSS certi cation, provides an opportunity for the devel- opment of methods and technologies to extract, from source code, the relevant coordination information. This paper is a step in this direction, combining a number of program analysis techniques to automatically recover coordination information from legacy code. Such information is then expressed as a model in Orc, a general purpose orchestration language

Prototyping Behavioural Specifications in the.NET framework

Over the last decade, software architecture emerged as a critical design step in Software Engineering. This encompassed a shift from traditional programming towards the deployment and assembly of independent components. The specification of the overall system structure, on the one hand, and of the interactions patterns between its components, on the other, became a major concern for the working developer. Although a number of formalisms to express behaviour and supply the indispensable calculational power to reason about designs, are available, the task of deriving architectural designs on top of popular component platforms has remained largely informal. This paper introduces a systematic approach to derive, from behavioural specifications written in Ccs, the corresponding architectural skeletons in the Microsoft .Net framework in the form of executable C] code. Such prototyping process is automated by means of a specific tool developed in Haskell

Performance management framework: the fit between PM framework adopted in Portuguese local government and the Otley’s framework

Purpose/objectives: This paper seeks to investigate whether performance management (PM) framework adopted in Portuguese local government (PLG) fit the Otley’s PM framework (1999). In particularly, the research questions are (1) whether PM framework adopted in PLG (SIADAP) fit the Otley´s framework, and (2) how local politicians (aldermen) see the operation of performance management systems (PMS) in PLG (focusing on the goal-setting process and incentive and reward structures). Theoretical positioning/contributions: With this paper we intend to contribute to literature on how the Otley’s PM framework can guide empirical research about the operation of PMS. In particular, the paper contributes to understand the fit between PMS implemented in PLG and the Otley´s PM framework. The analysis of this fit can be a good contribution to understand if PMS are used in PLG as a management tool or as a strategic response to external pressures (based on interviews conducted to aldermen). We believe that the Otley’s PM framework, as well as the extended PM framework presented by Ferreira and Otley (2009), can provide a useful research tool to understand the operation of PMS in PLG. Research method: The first research question is the central issue in this paper and is analyzed based on the main reforms introduced by Portuguese government on PM of public organizations (like municipalities). On the other hand, interviews conducted on three larger Portuguese municipalities (Oporto, Braga, and Matosinhos) show how aldermen see the operation of PMS in PLG, highlighting the goals setting process with targets associated and the existing of incentive and reward structures linked with performance. Findings: Generally we find that formal and regulated PM frameworks in PLG fit the main issues of the Otley’s PM framework. However, regarding the aldermen perceptions about PMS in practice we find a gap between theory and practice, especially regarding difficulties associated with the lack of a culture of goals and targets setting and the lack of incentive and reward structures linked with performance.

USE AND CONSEQUENCES OF PARTICIPATORY GIS IN A MEXICAN MUNICIPALITY: APPLYING A MULTILEVEL FRAMEWORK

This paper seeks to understand the use and the consequences of Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) in a Mexican local community. A multilevel framework was applied, mainly influenced by two theoretical lenses – structurationist view and social shaping of technology – structured in three dimensions – context, process and content – according to contextualist logic. The results of our study have brought two main contributions. The first is the refinement of the theoretical framework in order to better investigate the implementation and use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) artifacts by local communities for social and environmental purposes. The second contribution is the extension of existing IS (Information Systems) literature on participatory practices through identification of important conditions for helping the mobilization of ICT as a tool for empowering local communities.