Sahel decadal rainfall variability and the role of model horizontal resolution

Substantial low-frequency rainfall fluctuations occurred in the Sahel throughout the twentieth century, causing devastating drought. Modeling these low-frequency rainfall fluctuations has remained problematic for climate models for many years. Here we show using a combination of state-of-the-art rainfall observations and high-resolution global climate models that changes in organized heavy rainfall events carry most of the rainfall variability in the Sahel at multiannual to decadal time scales. Ability to produce intense, organized convection allows climate models to correctly simulate the magnitude of late-twentieth century rainfall change, underlining the importance of model resolution. Increasing model resolution allows a better coupling between large-scale circulation changes and regional rainfall processes over the Sahel. These results provide a strong basis for developing more reliable and skilful long-term predictions of rainfall (seasons to years) which could benefit many sectors in the region by allowing early adaptation to impending extremes.

The role of lipid composition on the interaction between a tryptophan-rich protein and model bacterial membranes

The interaction between tryptophan-rich puroindoline proteins and model bacterial membranes at the air-liquid interface has been investigated by FTIR spectroscopy, surface pressure measurements and Brewster angle microscopy. The role of different lipid constituents on the interactions between lipid membrane and protein was studied using wild type (Pin-b) and mutant (Trp44 to Arg44 mutant, Pin-bs) puroindoline proteins. The results show differences in the lipid selectivity of the two proteins in terms of preferential binding to specific lipid head groups in mixed lipid systems. Pin-b wild type was able to penetrate mixed layers of phosphatidylethanolamine (PE) and phosphatidylglycerol (PG) head groups more deeply compared to the mutant Pin-bs. Increasing saturation of the lipid tails increased penetration and adsorption of Pin-b wild type, but again the response of the mutant form differed. The results provide insight as to the role of membrane architecture, lipid composition and fluidity, on antimicrobial activity of proteins. Data show distinct differences in the lipid binding behavior of Pin-b as a result of a single residue mutation, highlighting the importance of hydrophobic and charged amino acids in antimicrobial protein and peptide activity.

The role of local atmospheric forcing on the modulation of the ocean mixed layer depth in reanalysis and a coupled single column ocean model

The role of the local atmospheric forcing on the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) over the global oceans is studied using ocean reanalysis data products and a single-column ocean model coupled to an atmospheric general circulation model. The focus of this study is on how the annual mean and the seasonal cycle of the MLD relate to various forcing characteristics in different parts of the world's ocean, and how anomalous variations in the monthly mean MLD relate to anomalous atmospheric forcings. By analysing both ocean reanalysis data and the single-column ocean model, regions with different dominant forcings and different mean and variability characteristics of the MLD can be identified. Many of the global oceans' MLD characteristics appear to be directly linked to different atmospheric forcing characteristics at different locations. Here, heating and wind-stress are identified as the main drivers; in some, mostly coastal, regions the atmospheric salinity forcing also contributes. The annual mean MLD is more closely related to the annual mean wind-stress and the MLD seasonality is more closely to the seasonality in heating. The single-column ocean model, however, also points out that the MLD characteristics over most global ocean regions, and in particular the tropics and subtropics, cannot be maintained by local atmospheric forcings only, but are also a result of ocean dynamics that are not simulated in a single-column ocean model. Thus, lateral ocean dynamics are essentially in correctly simulating observed MLD.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

SZNAJD MODEL AND PROPORTIONAL ELECTIONS: THE ROLE OF THE TOPOLOGY OF THE NETWORK

The Sznajd model (SM) has been employed with success in the last years to describe opinion propagation in a community. In particular, it has been claimed that its transient is able to reproduce some scale properties observed in data of proportional elections, in different countries, if the community structure (the network) is scale-free. In this work, we investigate the properties of the transient of a particular version of the SM, introduced by Bernardes and co-authors in 2002. We studied the behavior of the model in networks of different topologies through the time evolution of an order parameter known as interface density, and concluded that regular lattices with high dimensionality also leads to a power-law distribution of the number of candidates with v votes. Also, we show that the particular absorbing state achieved in the stationary state (or else, the winner candidate), is related to a particular feature of the model, that may not be realistic in all situations.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to innumerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as studying monetary policy implications. On their turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test if no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross section (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on U.S. Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and Root Mean Square Errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.

The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Role of PKC and CaV1.2 in Detrusor Overactivity in a Model of Obesity Associated with Insulin Resistance in Mice

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A kinetic model for the ultrasound catalyzed hydrolysis of solventless TEOS-water mixtures and the role of the initial additions of ethanol

The acid and ultrasound catalyzed hydrolysis of solventless TEOS-water mixtures are studied, as a function of the initial additions of ethanol to the mixtures, by means of flux calorimetry measurements. A device was specially designed for this purpose. Under acid conditions, our proposed method has been able to resolve hydrolysis from other condensation reactions, by detecting the exothermal hydrolysis reaction heat. The process has been explained by a dissolution and reaction mechanism. Ultrasound forces the dissolution process to start the reaction. The alcohol produced in the reaction helps the dissolution process to further enhance the hydrolysis. Initial amounts of pure ethanol added to the mixtures shorten the start time of the reaction, due to an additional effect of dissolution, and diminish the reaction rate, as a result of the solvent dilution effect. Our dissolution and reaction mechanism modeling describes the main points arising from the experimental data and yields k(H) = 0.24 M(-1) min(-1) for the second-order hydrolysis rate constant at 39 degrees C.

Ghost poles in the nucleon propagator in the linear sigma model approach and its role in pi N low-energy theorems

Complex mass poles, or ghost poles, are present in the Hartree-Fock solution of the Schwinger-Dyson equation for the nucleon propagator in renormalizable models with Yukawa-type meson-nucleon couplings, as shown many years ago by Brown, Puff and Wilets (BPW), These ghosts violate basic theorems of quantum field theory and their origin is related to the ultraviolet behavior of the model interactions, Recently, Krein et.al, proved that the ghosts disappear when vertex corrections are included in a self-consistent way, softening the interaction sufficiently in the ultraviolet region. In previous studies of pi N scattering using ''dressed'' nucleon propagator and bare vertices, did by Nutt and Wilets in the 70's (NW), it was found that if these poles are explicitly included, the value of the isospin-even amplitude A((+)) is satisfied within 20% at threshold. The absence of a theoretical explanation for the ghosts and the lack of chiral symmetry in these previous studies led us to re-investigate the subject using the approach of the linear sigma-model and study the interplay of low-energy theorems for pi N scattering and ghost poles. For bare interaction vertices we find that ghosts are present in this model as well and that the A((+)) value is badly described, As a first approach to remove these complex poles, we dress the vertices with phenomenological form factors and a reasonable agreement with experiment is achieved, In order to fix the two cutoff parameters, we use the A((+)) value for the chiral limit (m(pi) --> 0) and the experimental value of the isoscalar scattering length, Finally, we test our model by calculating the phase shifts for the S waves and we find a good agreement at threshold. (C) 1997 Elsevier B.V. B.V.

A structure based model for liposome disruption and the role of catalytic activity in myotoxic phospholipase A(2)S

Venom phospholipase A(2)s (PLA(2)s) display a wide spectrum of pharmacological activities and, based on the wealth of biochemical and structural data currently available for PLA(2)S, mechanistic models can now be inferred to account for some of these activities. A structural model is presented for the role played by the distribution of surface electrostatic potential in the ability of myotoxic D49/K49 PLA(2)s to disrupt multilamellar vesicles containing negatively charged natural and non-hydrolyzable phospholipids. Structural evidence is provided for the ability of K49 PLA(2)s to bind phospholipid analogues and for the existence of catalytic activity in K49 PLA(2)s. The importance of the existence of catalytic activity of D49 and K49 PLA(2)s in myotoxicity is presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

The study introduces a new regression model developed to estimate the hourly values of diffuse solar radiation at the surface. The model is based on the clearness index and diffuse fraction relationship, and includes the effects of cloud (cloudiness and cloud type), traditional meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure observed at the surface) and air pollution (concentration of particulate matter observed at the surface). The new model is capable of predicting hourly values of diffuse solar radiation better than the previously developed ones (R-2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.085). A simple version with a large applicability is proposed that takes into consideration cloud effects only (cloudiness and cloud height) and shows a R-2 = 0.92. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cannabidiol, a non-psychotropic plant-derived cannabinoid, decreases inflammation in a murine model of acute lung injury: Role for the adenosine A(2A) receptor

Acute lung injury is an inflammatory condition for which treatment is mainly supportive because effective therapies have not been developed. Cannabidiol, a non-psychotropic cannabinoid component of marijuana (Cannabis sativa), has potent immunosuppressive and anti-inflammatory properties. Therefore, we investigated the possible anti-inflammatory effect of cannabidiol in a murine model of acute lung injury. Analysis of total inflammatory cells and differential in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was used to characterize leukocyte migration into the lungs; myeloperoxidase activity of lung tissue and albumin concentration in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid were analyzed by colorimetric assays; cytokine/chemokine production in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was also analyzed by Cytometric Bead Arrays and Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). A single dose of cannabidiol (20 mg/kg) administered prior to the induction of LPS (lipopolysaccharide)-induced acute lung injury decreases leukocyte (specifically neutrophil) migration into the lungs, albumin concentration in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, myeloperoxidase activity in the lung tissue, and production of pro-inflammatory cytokines (TNF and IL-6) and chemokines (MCP-1 and MIP-2) 1, 2, and 4 days after the induction of LPS-induced acute lung injury. Additionally, adenosine A(2A) receptor is involved in the anti-inflammatory effects of cannabidiol on LPS-induced acute lung injury because ZM241385 (4-(2[7-Amino-2-(2-furyl)[1,2,4] triazolo[2,3-a][1,3,5]triazin-5-ylamino]ethyl) phenol) (a highly selective antagonist of adenosine A(2A) receptor) abrogated all of the anti-inflammatory effects of cannabidiol previously described. Thus, we show that cannabidiol has anti-inflammatory effects in a murine model of acute lung injury and that this effect is most likely associated with an increase in the extracellular adenosine offer and signaling through adenosine A(2A) receptor. (C) 2012 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.