A modelling approach to estimate the effect of exotic pollinators on exotic weed population dynamics: bumblebees and broom in Australia

The role of mutualisms in contributing to species invasions is rarely considered, inhibiting effective risk analysis and management options. Potential ecological consequences of invasion of non-native pollinators include increased pollination and seed set of invasive plants, with subsequent impacts on population growth rates and rates of spread. We outline a quantitative approach for evaluating the impact of a proposed introduction of an invasive pollinator on existing weed population dynamics and demonstrate the use of this approach on a relatively data-rich case study: the impacts on Cytisus scoparius (Scotch broom) from proposed introduction of Bombus terrestris. Three models have been used to assess population growth (matrix model), spread speed (integrodifference equation), and equilibrium occupancy (lattice model) for C. scoparius. We use available demographic data for an Australian population to parameterize two of these models. Increased seed set due to more efficient pollination resulted in a higher population growth rate in the density-independent matrix model, whereas simulations of enhanced pollination scenarios had a negligible effect on equilibrium weed occupancy in the lattice model. This is attributed to strong microsite limitation of recruitment in invasive C. scoparius populations observed in Australia and incorporated in the lattice model. A lack of information regarding secondary ant dispersal of C. scoparius prevents us from parameterizing the integrodifference equation model for Australia, but studies of invasive populations in California suggest that spread speed will also increase with higher seed set. For microsite-limited C. scoparius populations, increased seed set has minimal effects on equilibrium site occupancy. However, for density-independent rapidly invading populations, increased seed set is likely to lead to higher growth rates and spread speeds. The impacts of introduced pollinators on native flora and fauna and the potential for promoting range expansion in pollinator-limited 'sleeper weeds' also remain substantial risks.

Liquid-phase adsorption of n-paraffins on type 5A molecular sieves

As a basis for the commercial separation of normal paraffins a detailed study has been made of factors affecting the adsorption of binary liquid mixtures of high molecular weight normal paraffins (C12, C16, and C20) from isooctane on type 5A molecular sieves. The literature relating to molecular sieve properties and applications, and to liquid-phase adsorption of high molecular weight normal paraffin compounds by zeolites, was reviewed. Equilibrium isotherms were determined experimentally for the normal paraffins under investigation at temperatures of 303oK, 323oK and 343oK and showed a non-linear, favourable- type of isotherm. A higher equilibrium amount was adsorbed with lower molecular weight normal paraffins. An increase in adsorption temperature resulted in a decrease in the adsorption value. Kinetics of adsorption were investigated for the three normal paraffins at different temperatures. The effective diffusivity and the rate of adsorption of each normal paraffin increased with an increase in temperature in the range 303 to 343oK. The value of activation energy was between 2 and 4 kcal/mole. The dynamic properties of the three systems were investigated over a range of operating conditions (i.e. temperature, flow rate, feed concentration, and molecular sieve size in the range 0.032 x 10-3 to 2 x 10-3m) with a packed column. The heights of adsorption zones calculated by two independent equations (one based on a constant width, constant velocity and adsorption zone and the second on a solute material balance within the adsorption zone) agreed within 3% which confirmed the validity of using the mass transfer zone concept to provide a simple design procedure for the systems under study. The dynamic capacity of type 5A sieves for n-eicosane was lower than for n-hexadecane and n-dodecane corresponding to a lower equilibrium loading capacity and lower overall mass transfer coefficient. The values of individual external, internal, theoretical and experimental overall mass transfer coefficient were determined. The internal resistance was in all cases rate-controlling. A mathematical model for the prediction of dynamic breakthrough curves was developed analytically and solved from the equilibrium isotherm and the mass transfer rate equation. The experimental breakthrough curves were tested against both the proposed model and a graphical method developed by Treybal. The model produced the best fit with mean relative percent deviations of 26, 22, and 13% for the n-dodecane, n-hexadecane, and n-eicosane systems respectively.

Computationsl modelling of dimethyl ether separation and steam reforming in fluidized bed reactors

This study presents a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) study of Dimethyl Ether (DME) gas adsorptive separation and steam reforming (DME-SR) in a large scale Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) reactor. The CFD model is based on Eulerian-Eulerian dispersed flow and solved using commercial software (ANSYS FLUENT). Hydrogen is currently receiving increasing interest as an alternative source of clean energy and has high potential applications, including the transportation sector and power generation. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modelling has attracted considerable recognition in the engineering sector consequently leading to using it as a tool for process design and optimisation in many industrial processes. In most cases, these processes are difficult or expensive to conduct in lab scale experiments. The CFD provides a cost effective methodology to gain detailed information up to the microscopic level. The main objectives in this project are to: (i) develop a predictive model using ANSYS FLUENT (CFD) commercial code to simulate the flow hydrodynamics, mass transfer, reactions and heat transfer in a large scale dual fluidized bed system for combined gas separation and steam reforming processes (ii) implement a suitable adsorption models in the CFD code, through a user defined function, to predict selective separation of a gas from a mixture (iii) develop a model for dimethyl ether steam reforming (DME-SR) to predict hydrogen production (iv) carry out detailed parametric analysis in order to establish ideal operating conditions for future industrial application. The project has originated from a real industrial case problem in collaboration with the industrial partner Dow Corning (UK) and jointly funded by the Engineering and Physical Research Council (UK) and Dow Corning. The research examined gas separation by adsorption in a bubbling bed, as part of a dual fluidized bed system. The adsorption process was simulated based on the kinetics derived from the experimental data produced as part of a separate PhD project completed under the same fund. The kinetic model was incorporated in FLUENT CFD tool as a pseudo-first order rate equation; some of the parameters for the pseudo-first order kinetics were obtained using MATLAB. The modelling of the DME adsorption in the designed bubbling bed was performed for the first time in this project and highlights the novelty in the investigations. The simulation results were analysed to provide understanding of the flow hydrodynamic, reactor design and optimum operating condition for efficient separation. Bubbling bed validation by estimation of bed expansion and the solid and gas distribution from simulation agreed well with trends seen in the literatures. Parametric analysis on the adsorption process demonstrated that increasing fluidizing velocity reduced adsorption of DME. This is as a result of reduction in the gas residence time which appears to have much effect compared to the solid residence time. The removal efficiency of DME from the bed was found to be more than 88%. Simulation of the DME-SR in FLUENT CFD was conducted using selected kinetics from literature and implemented in the model using an in-house developed user defined function. The validation of the kinetics was achieved by simulating a case to replicate an experimental study of a laboratory scale bubbling bed by Vicente et al [1]. Good agreement was achieved for the validation of the models, which was then applied in the DME-SR in the large scale riser section of the dual fluidized bed system. This is the first study to use the selected DME-SR kinetics in a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) system and for the geometry size proposed for the project. As a result, the simulation produced the first detailed data on the spatial variation and final gas product in such an industrial scale fluidized bed system. The simulation results provided insight in the flow hydrodynamic, reactor design and optimum operating condition. The solid and gas distribution in the CFB was observed to show good agreement with literatures. The parametric analysis showed that the increase in temperature and steam to DME molar ratio increased the production of hydrogen due to the increased DME conversions, whereas the increase in the space velocity has been found to have an adverse effect. Increasing temperature between 200 oC to 350 oC increased DME conversion from 47% to 99% while hydrogen yield increased substantially from 11% to 100%. The CO2 selectivity decreased from 100% to 91% due to the water gas shift reaction favouring CO at higher temperatures. The higher conversions observed as the temperature increased was reflected on the quantity of unreacted DME and methanol concentrations in the product gas, where both decreased to very low values of 0.27 mol% and 0.46 mol% respectively at 350 °C. Increasing the steam to DME molar ratio from 4 to 7.68 increased the DME conversion from 69% to 87%, while the hydrogen yield increased from 40% to 59%. The CO2 selectivity decreased from 100% to 97%. The decrease in the space velocity from 37104 ml/g/h to 15394 ml/g/h increased the DME conversion from 87% to 100% while increasing the hydrogen yield from 59% to 87%. The parametric analysis suggests an operating condition for maximum hydrogen yield is in the region of 300 oC temperatures and Steam/DME molar ratio of 5. The analysis of the industrial sponsor’s case for the given flow and composition of the gas to be treated suggests that 88% of DME can be adsorbed from the bubbling and consequently producing 224.4t/y of hydrogen in the riser section of the dual fluidized bed system. The process also produces 1458.4t/y of CO2 and 127.9t/y of CO as part of the product gas. The developed models and parametric analysis carried out in this study provided essential guideline for future design of DME-SR at industrial level and in particular this work has been of tremendous importance for the industrial collaborator in order to draw conclusions and plan for future potential implementation of the process at an industrial scale.

Internal quantum efficiency and tunable colour temperature in monolithic white InGaN/GaN LED

Internal Quantum Efficiency (IQE) of two-colour monolithic white light emitting diode (LED) was measured by temperature dependant electro-luminescence (TDEL) and analysed with modified rate equation based on ABC model. External, internal and injection efficiencies of blue and green quantum wells were analysed separately. Monolithic white LED contained one green InGaN QW and two blue QWs being separated by GaN barrier. This paper reports also the tunable behaviour of correlated colour temperature (CCT) in pulsed operation mode and effect of self-heating on device performance. © 2014 SPIE.

Essays on the determinants of private investment: The effects of relative price uncertainty and political instability

The objective of this study was to provide empirical evidence on the effects of relative price uncertainty and political instability on private investment. My effort is expressed in a single-equation model using macroeconomic and socio-political data from eight Latin American countries for the period 1970–1996. Relative price uncertainty is measured by the implied volatility of the exchange rate and political instability is measured by using indicators of social unrest and political violence. ^ I found that, after controlling for other variables, relative price uncertainty and political instability are negatively associated with private investment. Macroeconomic and political stability are key ingredients for the achievement of a strong investment response. This highlights the need to develop the state and build a civil society in which citizens can participate in decision-making and express consent without generating social turmoil. At the same time the government needs to implement structural policies along with relative price adjustments to eliminate excess volatility in price movements in order to provide a stable environment for investment. ^

A study of stock market fluctuations and their relation to business conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubblelike deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the nonfundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

A Study of Stock Market Fluctuations and their Relations to Business Conditions

Most research on stock prices is based on the present value model or the more general consumption-based model. When applied to real economic data, both of them are found unable to account for both the stock price level and its volatility. Three essays here attempt to both build a more realistic model, and to check whether there is still room for bubbles in explaining fluctuations in stock prices. In the second chapter, several innovations are simultaneously incorporated into the traditional present value model in order to produce more accurate model-based fundamental prices. These innovations comprise replacing with broad dividends the more narrow traditional dividends that are more commonly used, a nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) forecasting procedure for these broad dividends instead of the more common linear forecasting models for narrow traditional dividends, and a stochastic discount rate in place of the constant discount rate. Empirical results show that the model described above predicts fundamental prices better, compared with alternative models using linear forecasting process, narrow dividends, or a constant discount factor. Nonetheless, actual prices are still largely detached from fundamental prices. The bubble-like deviations are found to coincide with business cycles. The third chapter examines possible cointegration of stock prices with fundamentals and non-fundamentals. The output gap is introduced to form the non-fundamental part of stock prices. I use a trivariate Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model and a single equation model to run cointegration tests between these three variables. Neither of the cointegration tests shows strong evidence of explosive behavior in the DJIA and S&P 500 data. Then, I applied a sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check for the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in stock prices. Such bubbles are found in S&P data during the late 1990s. Employing econometric tests from the third chapter, I continue in the fourth chapter to examine whether bubbles exist in stock prices of conventional economic sectors on the New York Stock Exchange. The ‘old economy’ as a whole is not found to have bubbles. But, periodically collapsing bubbles are found in Material and Telecommunication Services sectors, and the Real Estate industry group.

Effects of seasonally varying temperature and salinity on the dynamics of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis)

Sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) are an economically significant parasite in salmonid aquaculture. They exhibit temperature-dependent development rates and salinity-dependent mortality, which can greatly impact sea lice population dynamics, but no deterministic models have incorporated these seasonal variables. To understand how seasonality affects sea lice population dynamics, I derive a delay differential equation model with temperature and salinity dependence. I find that peak reproductive output in Newfoundland and British Columbia differs by four months. A sensitivity analysis shows sea lice abundance is most sensitive to variation in mean annual water temperature and salinity, whereas it is lease sensitive to infection rate. Additionally, I investigate the effects of production cycle timing on sea lice management and find that optimal production cycle start times are between the 281st and 337th days of the year in Newfoundland. I also demonstrate that adjusting follow-up treatment timing in response to temperature can improve treatment regimes. My results suggest that effective sea lice management requires consideration of local temperature and salinity patterns.

Combined Conduction-Convection-Radiation Heat Transfer of Slip Flow inside a Micro-channel Filled with a Cellular Porous Material

Combined conduction–convection–radiation heat transfer is investigated numerically in a micro-channel filled with a saturated cellular porous medium, with the channel walls held at a constant heat flux. Invoking the velocity slip and temperature jump, the thermal behaviour of the porous–fluid system are studied by considering hydrodynamically fully developed flow and applying the Darcy–Brinkman flow model. One energy equation model based on the local thermal equilibrium condition is adopted to evaluate the temperature field within the porous medium. Combined conduction and radiation heat transfer is treated as an effective conduction process with a temperature-dependent effective thermal conductivity. Results are reported in terms of the average Nusselt number and dimensionless temperature distribution, as a function of velocity slip coefficient, temperature jump coefficient, porous medium shape parameter and radiation parameters. Results show that increasing the radiation parameter (Tr)(Tr) and the temperature jump coefficient flattens the dimensionless temperature profile. The Nusselt numbers are more sensitive to the variation in the temperature jump coefficient rather than to the velocity slip coefficient. Such that for high porous medium shape parameter, the Nusselt number is found to be independent of velocity slip. Furthermore, it is found that as the temperature jump coefficient increases, the Nusselt number decrease. In addition, for high temperature jump coefficients, the Nusselt number is found to be insensitive to the radiation parameters and porous medium shape parameter. It is also concluded that compared with the conventional macro-channels, wherein using a porous material enhances the rate of heat transfer (up to about 40 % compared to the clear channel), insertion of a porous material inside a micro-channel in slip regime does not effectively enhance the rate of heat transfer that is about 2 %.

Behavior of Granular Materials Under Triaxial Compression with Pulsating Deviator Stress, HR-131, Special Report

Behavior of granular material subjected to repeated load triaxial compression tests is characterized by a model based on rate process theory. Starting with the Arrhenius equation from chemical kinetics, the relationship of temperature, shear stress, normal stress and volume change to deformation rate is developed. The proposed model equation includes these factors as a product of exponential terms. An empirical relationship between deformation and the cube root of the number of stress applications at constant temperature and normal stress is combined with the rate equation to yield an integrated relationship of temperature, deviator stress, confining pressure and number of deviator stress applications to axial strain. The experimental program consists of 64 repeated load triaxial compression tests, 52 on untreated crushed stone and 12 on the same crushed stone material treated with 4% asphalt cement. Results were analyzed with multiple linear regression techniques and show substantial agreement with the model equations. Experimental results fit the rate equation somewhat better than the integrated equation when all variable quantities are considered. The coefficient of shear temperature gives the activation enthalpy, which is about 4.7 kilocalories/mole for untreated material and 39.4 kilocalories/mole for asphalt-treated material. This indicates the activation enthalpy is about that of the pore fluid. The proportionality coefficient of deviator stress may be used to measure flow unit volume. The volumes thus determined for untreated and asphalt-treated material are not substantially different. This may be coincidental since comparison with flow unit volumes reported by others indicates flow unit volume is related to gradation of untreated material. The flow unit volume of asphalt-treated material may relate to asphalt cement content. The proposed model equations provide a more rational basis for further studies of factors affecting deformation of granular materials under stress similar to that in pavement subjected to transient traffic loads.

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Testing a Theory-Based Model of Suicidality in a Community Sample

The aim of the present study is to test a theory-based model of suicide in a low-risk nonclinical sample. A community sample of convenience of 200 adults, 102 men and 98 women, responded to the Depressive Experiences Questionnaire, the Center for the Epidemiologic Studies of Depression Scale, the Psychache Scale, the Interpersonal Needs Questionnaire, and the Suicide Behaviors Questionnaire Revised. The hypothesized structural equation model, including trait dimensions of self-criticism and neediness, and state dimensions of depression, psychache, perceived burdensomeness, and thwarted belongingness, fit the observed data well and significantly explained 49% of the variance of suicidality.

The conceptualisation, sensitivity and measurement of holding costs and other selected elements impacting housing affordability (Literature review and research methodology for confirmation of PhD candidature)

It is widely held that strong relationships exist between housing, economic status, and well being. This is exemplified by widespread housing stock surpluses in many countries which threaten to destabilise numerous aspects related to individuals and community. However, the position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian position provides a distinct contrast whereby seemingly inexorable housing demand generally remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand ensures elements related to housing affordability continue to gain prominence. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability – particularly new housing development – relates to holding costs. These costs are in many ways “hidden” and cannot always be easily identified. Although it is only one contributor, the nature and extent of its impact requires elucidation. In its simplest form, it commences with a calculation of the interest or opportunity cost of land holding. However, there is significantly more complexity for major new developments - particularly greenfield property development. Preliminary analysis conducted by the author suggests that even small shifts in primary factors impacting holding costs can appreciably affect housing affordability – and notably, to a greater extent than commonly held. Even so, their importance and perceived high level impact can be gauged from the unprecedented level of attention policy makers have given them over recent years. This may be evidenced by the embedding of specific strategies to address burgeoning holding costs (and particularly those cost savings associated with streamlining regulatory assessment) within statutory instruments such as the Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy, and the South East Queensland Regional Plan. However, several key issues require investigation. Firstly, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely. In fact, it is not only variable, but in some instances completely ignored. Secondly, some ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Perhaps this may in part be explained by their nature: such costs are not always immediately apparent. Some forms of holding costs are not as visible as the more tangible cost items associated with greenfield development such as regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others. Holding costs are also more difficult to evaluate since for the most part they must be ultimately assessed over time in an ever-changing environment, based on their strong relationship with opportunity cost which is in turn dependant, inter alia, upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a more detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs, and in so doing determine the size of their impact specifically on the end user. This will involve the development of soundly based economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding costs. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.