924 resultados para publication lag time
Resumo:
Two simple and effective control strategies for a multi-axle heavy truck, modified skyhook damping (MSD) control and proportional-integration-derivative (PID) control, were implemented into functional virtual prototype (FVP) model and compared in terms of road friendliness and ride comfort. A four-axle heavy truck-road coupling system model was established using FVP technology and validated through a ride comfort test. Then appropriate passive air suspensions were chosen to replace the rear tandem suspensions of the original truck model for preliminary optimization. The mechanical properties and time lag of dampers were taken into account in simulations of MSD and PID semi-active dampers implemented using MATLAB/Simulink. Through co-simulations with Adams and MATLAB, the effects of semi-active MSD and PID control were analyzed and compared, and control parameters which afforded the best comprehensive performance for each control strategy were chosen. Simulation results indicate that compared with the passive air suspension truck, semi-active MSD control improves both ride comfort and road-friendliness markedly, with optimization ratios of RMS vertical acceleration and RMS tyre force ranging from 10.1% to 44.8%. However, semi-active PID control only reduces vertical vibration of the driver’s seat by 11.1%, 11.1% and 10.9% on A, B and C level roads respectively. Both strategies are robust to the variation of road level.
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The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.
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Atmospheric ultrafine particles play an important role in affecting human health, altering climate and degrading visibility. Numerous studies have been conducted to better understand the formation process of these particles, including field measurements, laboratory chamber studies and mathematical modeling approaches. Field studies on new particle formation found that formation processes were significantly affected by atmospheric conditions, such as the availability of particle precursors and meteorological conditions. However, those studies were mainly carried out in rural areas of the northern hemisphere and information on new particle formation in urban areas, especially those in subtropical regions, is limited. In general, subtropical regions display a higher level of solar radiation, along with stronger photochemical reactivity, than those regions investigated in previous studies. However, based on the results of these studies, the mechanisms involved in the new particle formation process remain unclear, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, in order to fill this gap in knowledge, a new particle formation study was conducted in a subtropical urban area in the Southern Hemisphere during 2009, which measured particle size distribution in different locations in Brisbane, Australia. Characterisation of nucleation events was conducted at the campus building of the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), located in an urban area of Brisbane. Overall, the annual average number concentrations of ultrafine, Aitken and nucleation mode particles were found to be 9.3 x 103, 3.7 x 103 and 5.6 x 103 cm-3, respectively. This was comparable to levels measured in urban areas of northern Europe, but lower than those from polluted urban areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, China and Huelva and Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain. Average particle number concentration (PNC) in the Brisbane region did not show significant seasonal variation, however a relatively large variation was observed during the warmer season. Diurnal variation of Aitken and nucleation mode particles displayed different patterns, which suggested that direct vehicle exhaust emissions were a major contributor of Aitken mode particles, while nucleation mode particles originated from vehicle exhaust emissions in the morning and photochemical production at around noon. A total of 65 nucleation events were observed during 2009, in which 40 events were classified as nucleation growth events and the remainder were nucleation burst events. An interesting observation in this study was that all nucleation growth events were associated with vehicle exhaust emission plumes, while the nucleation burst events were associated with industrial emission plumes from an industrial area. The average particle growth rate for nucleation events was found to be 4.6 nm hr-1 (ranging from 1.79-7.78 nm hr-1), which is comparable to other urban studies conducted in the United States, while monthly particle growth rates were found to be positively related to monthly solar radiation (r = 0.76, p <0.05). The particle growth rate values reported in this work are the first of their kind to be reported for the subtropical urban area of Australia. Furthermore, the influence of nucleation events on PNC within the urban airshed was also investigated. PNC was simultaneously measured at urban (QUT), roadside (Woolloongabba) and semi-urban (Rocklea) sites in Brisbane during 2009. Total PNC at these sites was found to be significantly affected by regional nucleation events. The relative fractions of PNC to total daily PNC observed at QUT, Woolloongabba and Rocklea were found to be 12%, 9% and 14%, respectively, during regional nucleation events. These values were higher than those observed as a result of vehicle exhaust emissions during weekday mornings, which ranged from 5.1-5.5% at QUT and Woolloongabba. In addition, PNC in the semi-urban area of Rocklea increased by a factor of 15.4 when it was upwind from urban pollution sources under the influence of nucleation burst events. Finally, we investigated the influence of sulfuric acid on new particle formation in the study region. A H2SO4 proxy was calculated by using [SO2], solar radiation and particle condensation sink data to represent the new particle production strength for the urban, roadside and semi-urban areas of Brisbane during the period June-July of 2009. The temporal variations of the H2SO4 proxies and the nucleation mode particle concentration were found to be in phase during nucleation events in the urban and roadside areas. In contrast, the peak of proxy concentration occurred 1-2 hr prior to the observed peak in nucleation mode particle concentration at the downwind semi-urban area of Brisbane. A moderate to strong linear relationship was found between the proxy and the freshly formed particles, with r2 values of 0.26-0.77 during the nucleation events. In addition, the log[H2SO4 proxy] required to produce new particles was found to be ~1.0 ppb Wm-2 s and below 0.5 ppb Wm-2 s for the urban and semi-urban areas, respectively. The particle growth rates were similar during nucleation events at the three study locations, with an average value of 2.7 ± 0.5 nm hr-1. This result suggested that a similar nucleation mechanism dominated in the study region, which was strongly related to sulphuric acid concentration, however the relationship between the proxy and PNC was poor in the semi-urban area of Rocklea. This can be explained by the fact that the nucleation process was initiated upwind of the site and the resultant particles were transported via the wind to Rocklea. This explanation is also supported by the higher geometric mean diameter value observed for particles during the nucleation event and the time lag relationship between the H2SO4 proxy and PNC observed at Rocklea. In summary, particle size distribution was continuously measured in a subtropical urban area of southern hemisphere during 2009, the findings from which formed the first particle size distribution dataset in the study region. The characteristics of nucleation events in the Brisbane region were quantified and the properties of the nucleation growth and burst events are discussed in detail using a case studies approach. To further investigate the influence of nucleation events on PNC in the study region, PNC was simultaneously measured at three locations to examine the spatial variation of PNC during the regional nucleation events. In addition, the impact of upwind urban pollution on the downwind semi-urban area was quantified during these nucleation events. Sulphuric acid was found to be an important factor influencing new particle formation in the urban and roadside areas of the study region, however, a direct relationship with nucleation events at the semi-urban site was not observed. This study provided an overview of new particle formation in the Brisbane region, and its influence on PNC in the surrounding area. The findings of this work are the first of their kind for an urban area in the southern hemisphere.
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This project researched the performance of emerging digital technology for high voltage electricity substations that significantly improves safety for staff and reduces the potential impact on the environment of equipment failure. The experimental evaluation used a scale model of a substation control system that incorporated real substation control and networking equipment with real-time simulation of the power system. The outcomes confirm that it is possible to implement Ethernet networks in high voltage substations that meet the needs of utilities; however component-level testing of devices is necessary to achieve this. The assessment results have been used to further develop international standards for substation communication and precision timing.
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Exposure to ultrafine particles (UFPs) is deemed to be a major risk affecting human health. Therefore, airborne particle studies were performed in the recent years to evaluate the most critical micro-environments, as well as identifying the main UFP sources. Nonetheless, in order to properly evaluate the UFP exposure, personal monitoring is required as the only way to relate particle exposure levels to the activities performed and micro-environments visited. To this purpose, in the present work, the results of experimental analysis aimed at showing the effect of the time-activity patterns on UFP personal exposure are reported. In particular, 24 non-smoking couples (12 during winter and summer time, respectively), comprised of a man who worked full-time and a woman who was a homemaker, were analyzed using personal particle counter and GPS monitors. Each couple was investigated for a 48-h period, during which they also filled out a diary reporting the daily activities performed. Time activity patterns, particle number concentration exposure and the related dose received by the participants, in terms of particle alveolar-deposited surface area, were measured. The average exposure to particle number concentration was higher for women during both summer and winter (Summer: women 1.8×104 part. cm-3; men 9.2×103 part. cm-3; Winter: women 2.9×104 part. cm-3; men 1.3×104 part. cm-3), which was likely due to the time spent undertaking cooking activities. Staying indoors after cooking also led to higher alveolar-deposited surface area dose for both women and men during the winter time (9.12×102 and 6.33×102 mm2, respectively), when indoor ventilation was greatly reduced. The effect of cooking activities was also detected in terms of women’s dose intensity (dose per unit time), being 8.6 and 6.6 in winter and summer, respectively. On the contrary, the highest dose intensity activity for men was time spent using transportation (2.8 in both winter and summer).
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This study presents a disturbance attenuation controller for horizontal position stabilisation for hover and automatic landings of a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (RUAV) operating close to the landing deck in rough seas. Based on a helicopter model representing aerodynamics during the landing phase, a non-linear state feedback H∞ controller is designed to achieve rapid horizontal position tracking in a gusty environment. Practical constraints including flapping dynamics, servo dynamics and time lag effect are considered. A high-fidelity closed-loop simulation using parameters of the Vario XLC gas-turbine helicopter verifies performance of the proposed horizontal position controller. The proposed controller not only increases the disturbance attenuation capability of the RUAV, but also enables rapid position response when gusts occur. Comparative studies show that the H∞ controller exhibits performance improvement and can be applied to ship/RUAV landing systems.
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Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51–0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8–14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91–1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.
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As Earth's climate is rapidly changing, the impact of ambient temperature on health outcomes has attracted increasing attention in the recent time. Considerable number of excess deaths has been reported because of exposure to ambient hot and cold temperatures. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the relation between temperature and morbidity. The aim of this study was to characterize the relationship between both hot and cold temperatures and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia, and to examine whether the relation varied by age and socioeconomic factors. It aimed to explore lag structures of temperature–morbidity association for respiratory causes, and to estimate the magnitude of emergency hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases attributable to hot and cold temperatures for the large contribution of both diseases to the total emergency hospital admissions. A time series study design was applied using routinely collected data of daily emergency hospital admissions, weather and air pollution variables in Brisbane during 1996–2005. Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear structure was adopted to assess the impact of temperature on emergency hospital admissions after adjustment for confounding factors. Both hot and cold effects were found, with higher risk of hot temperatures than that of cold temperatures. Increases in mean temperature above 24.2oC were associated with increased morbidity, especially for the elderly ≥ 75 years old with the largest effect. The magnitude of the risk estimates of hot temperature varied by age and socioeconomic factors. High population density, low household income, and unemployment appeared to modify the temperature–morbidity relation. There were different lag structures for hot and cold temperatures, with the acute hot effect within 3 days after hot exposure and about 2-week lagged cold effect on respiratory diseases. A strong harvesting effect after 3 days was evident for respiratory diseases. People suffering from cardiovascular diseases were found to be more vulnerable to hot temperatures than cold temperatures. However, more patients admitted for cardiovascular diseases were attributable to cold temperatures in Brisbane compared with hot temperatures. This study contributes to the knowledge base about the association between temperature and morbidity. It is vitally important in the context of ongoing climate change. The findings of this study may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policy and strategic initiatives designed to reduce and prevent the burden of disease due to the impact of climate change.
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The inconsistent findings of past board diversity research demand a test of competing linear and curvilinear diversity–performance predictions. This research focuses on board age and gender diversity, and presents a positive linear prediction based on resource dependence theory, a negative linear prediction based on social identity theory, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear prediction based on the integration of resource dependence theory with social identity theory. The predictions were tested using archival data on 288 large organizations listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, with a 1-year time lag between diversity (age and gender) and performance (employee productivity and return on assets). The results indicate a positive linear relationship between gender diversity and employee productivity, a negative linear relationship between age diversity and return on assets, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear relationship between age diversity and return on assets. The findings provide additional evidence on the business case for board gender diversity and refine the business case for board age diversity.
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Background Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14–1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40–2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56–2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06–1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21–1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.
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Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.
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Using the belief basis of the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the current study explored the rate of mild reactions reported by donors in relation to their first donation and the intention and beliefs of those donors with regard to returning to donate again. A high proportion of first-time donors indicated that they had experienced a reaction to blood donation. Further, donors who reacted were less likely to intend to return to donate. Regression analyses suggested that targeting different beliefs for those donors who had and had not reacted would yield most benefit in bolstering donors’ intentions to remain donating. The findings provide insight into those messages that could be communicated via the mass media or in targeted communications to retain first-time donors who have experienced a mild vasovagal reaction.
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This paper presents an investigation into event detection in crowded scenes, where the event of interest co-occurs with other activities and only binary labels at the clip level are available. The proposed approach incorporates a fast feature descriptor from the MPEG domain, and a novel multiple instance learning (MIL) algorithm using sparse approximation and random sensing. MPEG motion vectors are used to build particle trajectories that represent the motion of objects in uniform video clips, and the MPEG DCT coefficients are used to compute a foreground map to remove background particles. Trajectories are transformed into the Fourier domain, and the Fourier representations are quantized into visual words using the K-Means algorithm. The proposed MIL algorithm models the scene as a linear combination of independent events, where each event is a distribution of visual words. Experimental results show that the proposed approaches achieve promising results for event detection compared to the state-of-the-art.
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Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health concern in many parts of the world. An increase in DF incidence has been observed globally over the past decades. Multiple factors including urbanisation, increased international travels and global climate change are thought to be responsible for increased DF. However, little research has been conducted in the Asia-Pacific region about the impact of these changes on dengue transmission. The overarching aim of this thesis is to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region and project the future risk of DF attributable to climate change. Annual data of DF outbreaks for sixteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region over the last fifty years were used in this study. The results show that the geographic range of DF in this region increased significantly over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam and Laos were identified as the highest risk areas and there was a southward expansion observed in the transmission pattern of DF which might have originated from Philippines or Thailand. Additionally, the detailed DF data were obtained and the space-time clustering of DF transmission was examined in Bangladesh. Monthly DF data were used for the entire country at the district level during 2000-2009. Dhaka district was identified as the most likely DF cluster in Bangladesh and several districts of the southern part of Bangladesh were identified as secondary clusters in the years 2000-2002. In order to examine the association between meteorological factors and DF transmission and to project the future risk of DF using different climate change scenarios, the climate-DF relationship was examined in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The results show that climate variability (particularly maximum temperature and relative humidity) was positively associated with DF transmission in Dhaka. The effects of climate variability were observed at a lag of four months which might help to potentially control and prevent DF outbreaks through effective vector management and community education. Based on the quantitative assessment of the climate-DF relationship, projected climate change will likely increase mosquito abundance and activity and DF in this area. Assuming a temperature increase of 3.3oC without any adaptation measures and significant changes in socio-economic conditions, the consequence will be devastating, with a projected annual increase of 16,030 cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the end of this century. Therefore, public health authorities need to be prepared for likely increase of DF transmission in this region. This study adds to the literature on the recent trends of DF and impacts of climate change on DF transmission. These findings may have significant public health implications for the control and prevention of DF, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region.
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The rapid development of the World Wide Web has created massive information leading to the information overload problem. Under this circumstance, personalization techniques have been brought out to help users in finding content which meet their personalized interests or needs out of massively increasing information. User profiling techniques have performed the core role in this research. Traditionally, most user profiling techniques create user representations in a static way. However, changes of user interests may occur with time in real world applications. In this research we develop algorithms for mining user interests by integrating time decay mechanisms into topic-based user interest profiling. Time forgetting functions will be integrated into the calculation of topic interest measurements on in-depth level. The experimental study shows that, considering temporal effects of user interests by integrating time forgetting mechanisms shows better performance of recommendation.