Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Thinking spatially, acting collaboratively : a GIS-based health decision support system for improving the collaborative health-planning practice

The field of collaborative health planning faces significant challenges due to the lack of effective information, systems and the absence of a framework to make informed decisions. These challenges have been magnified by the rise of the healthy cities movement, consequently, there have been more frequent calls for localised, collaborative and evidence-driven decision-making. Some studies in the past have reported that the use of decision support systems (DSS) for planning healthy cities may lead to: increase collaboration between stakeholders and the general public, improve the accuracy and quality of the decision-making processes and improve the availability of data and information for health decision-makers. These links have not yet been fully tested and only a handful of studies have evaluated the impact of DSS on stakeholders, policy-makers and health planners. This study suggests a framework for developing healthy cities and introduces an online Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based DSS for improving the collaborative health planning. It also presents preliminary findings of an ongoing case study conducted in the Logan-Beaudesert region of Queensland, Australia. These findings highlight the perceptions of decision-making prior to the implementation of the DSS intervention. Further, the findings help us to understand the potential role of the DSS to improve collaborative health planning practice.

Treating an unhealthy organisational culture : the implications of the Bundaberg Hospital inquiry for managerial ethical decision making

This paper explores the interplay between individual values, espoused organisational values and the values of the organisational culture in practice in light of a recent Royal Commission in Queensland, Australia, which highlighted systematic failures in patient care. The lack of congruence among values at these levels impacts upon the ethical decision making of health managers. The presence of institutional ethics regimes such as the Public Sector Ethics Act 1994 (Qld) and agency codes of conduct are not sufficient to counteract the negative influence of informal codes of practice that undermine espoused organisational values and community standards. The ethical decision-making capacity of health care managers remains at the front line in the battle against unethical and unprofessional practice. What is known about the topic? Value congruence theory focusses on the conflicts between individual and organisational values. Congruence between individual values, espoused values and values expressed in everyday practice can only be achieved by ensuring that such shared values are an ever-present factor in managerial decision making. What does this paper add? The importance of value congruence in building and sustaining a healthy organisational culture is confirmed by the evidence presented in the Bundaberg Hospital Inquiry. The presence of strong individual values among staff and strong espoused values in line with community expectations and backed up by legislation and ethics regimes were not, in themselves, sufficient to ensure a healthy organisational culture and prevent unethical, and possibly illegal, behaviour. What are the implications for practitioners? Managers must incorporate ethics in decision making to establish and maintain the nexus between individual and organisational values that is a vital component of a healthy organisational culture.

Public participation, values and interests in the procurement of infrastructure projects in Australia : a review and future research direction

In many countries, the main providers for major infrastructure projects are government or public agencies. Public infrastructure projects includes economic and social infrastructure such as transportation, education and health facilities. Most decision-making models for delivery of public infrastructure projects are heavily weighted towards financial/economic factors. In Australia, public participation is an essential instrument in the procurement of infrastructure and development within Australia. This study reviews the public participation, values and interests in the procurement of infrastructure projects in Australia, and identifies the research direction in this research area in order to improve the decision-making models that capture stakeholder social, economical and environmental concerns in infrastructure projects.

Geographical information systems : an effective planning and decision-making platform for community health coalitions in Australia

The development of locally-based healthcare initiatives, such as community health coalitions that focus on capacity building programs and multi-faceted responses to long-term health problems, have become an increasingly important part of the public health landscape. As a result of their complexity and the level of investment, it has become necessary to develop innovative ways to help manage these new healthcare approaches. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been suggested as one of the innovative approaches that will allow community health coalitions to better manage and plan their activities. The focus of this paper is to provide a commentary on the use of GIS as a tool for community coalitions and discuss some of the potential benefits and issues surrounding the development of these tools.

Pondering policy and parental perspectives : how parents view their role in shaping early childhood public policy

The focus of this paper is the role of Australian parents in early childhood education and care (ECEC), in particular, their role in shaping ECEC public policy. The paper reports the findings of a study investigating the different ways in which a group of parents viewed and experienced this role. Set against a policy backdrop where parents are positioned as 'consumers' and 'participants' in ECEC, the study employed a phenomenographic research approach to describe this role as viewed and experienced by parents. The study identified four logically related, qualitatively different ways of constituting this role among this group of parents, ranging from 'no role in shaping public policy' (the no role conception) to 'participating in policy decision-making, particularly where policy was likely to affect their child and family (the participating in policy decision-making conception). The study provides an insider-perspective on the role of parents in shaping policy and highlights variation in how this role is constituted by parents. The study also identifies factors perceived by parents as influencing their participation and discusses their implications for both policy and practice.

American public journalism versus other international media models

Chapter 2 of 'International Journalism and Democracy' provides examples of what the author dubs "deliberative journalism". Following a definition of deliberative journalism in Chapter 1, the book's second chapter examines major models of deliberative journalism that are in operation around the world. These models include public journalism, citizen journalism, community and alternative media, development journalism and peace journalism. The author argues that when these new forms of journalism are practiced well, they extend people's ability to identify, express, understand and respond to politics and issues affecting their communities. However, the main models of deliberative journalism all have contentious elements. Many deliberative journalism practioners have been subjected to criticism for lack of objectivity and poor professional standards. Many of their activities have clearly been ill-conceived. The author also finds that neither professional nor citizen journalists have a strong understanding of what constitutes "good practice" in deliberative journalism. Furthermore, there is much debate as to whether the type of "citizen journalism" that is posted intermittently on Facebook, Twitter, blogs and other social media can even be defined as "journalism". The practice of deliberative journalism can potentially contribute to public deliberation, but it does not always do so in any immediate or obvious way. The author finds that even so, deliberative journalism indirectly strengthens the environments that support fertile deliberation and decision making. (See the Extended Abstract for further details.)

A conceptual framework for ethical decision making in project procurement

There is a lack of research which identifies the role of the public-sector client in relation to ethical practice in plan procurement. This paper discusses a conceptual framework for ethical decision making in project procurement, focusing on public sector clients within the Malaysian construction industry. A framework is proposed to ensure that effective ethical decision making strategies are deployed to ensure that plan procurement is carried out with a transparent process so that the public sector clients are able to adopt. The conceptual framework adopts various factors that contribute to ethical decision making at the early stage of procurement and consists of the procurement system, individual factors, project characteristics, and organizational culture as the internal factors and professional code of conduct and government policies as the external factors. This framework rationalizes the relationships between systems, psychology and organizational theory to form an innovative understanding of making ethical decisions in plan procurement. It is expected that this proposed framework will be useful as a foundation for identifying the factors that contribute to ethical decision making focusing on the planning stage of procurement process.

Planning online : a community-based interactive decision-making model

The first use of computing technologies and the development of land use models in order to support decision-making processes in urban planning date back to as early as mid 20th century. The main thrust of computing applications in urban planning is their contribution to sound decision-making and planning practices. During the last couple of decades many new computing tools and technologies, including geospatial technologies, are designed to enhance planners' capability in dealing with complex urban environments and planning for prosperous and healthy communities. This chapter, therefore, examines the role of information technologies, particularly internet-based geographic information systems, as decision support systems to aid public participatory planning. The chapter discusses challenges and opportunities for the use of internet-based mapping application and tools in collaborative decision-making, and introduces a prototype internet-based geographic information system that is developed to integrate public-oriented interactive decision mechanisms into urban planning practice. This system, referred as the 'Community-based Internet GIS' model, incorporates advanced information technologies, distance learning, sustainable urban development principles and community involvement techniques in decision-making processes, and piloted in Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan.

An efficient public key management system : an application in vehicular ad hoc networks

The major purpose of Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) is to provide safety-related message access for motorists to react or make a life-critical decision for road safety enhancement. Accessing safety-related information through the use of VANET communications, therefore, must be protected, as motorists may make critical decisions in response to emergency situations in VANETs. If introducing security services into VANETs causes considerable transmission latency or processing delays, this would defeat the purpose of using VANETs to improve road safety. Current research in secure messaging for VANETs appears to focus on employing certificate-based Public Key Cryptosystem (PKC) to support security. The security overhead of such a scheme, however, creates a transmission delay and introduces a time-consuming verification process to VANET communications. This paper proposes an efficient public key management system for VANETs: the Public Key Registry (PKR) system. Not only does this paper demonstrate that the proposed PKR system can maintain security, but it also asserts that it can improve overall performance and scalability at a lower cost, compared to the certificate-based PKC scheme. It is believed that the proposed PKR system will create a new dimension to the key management and verification services for VANETs.

A conceptual decision-making framework for the delivery of innovative change in organisations

Research found that today’s organisations are increasingly aware of the potential barriers and perceived challenges associated with the successful delivery of change — including cultural and sub-cultural indifferences; financial constraints; restricted timelines; insufficient senior management support; fragmented key stakeholder commitment; and inadequate training. The delivery and application of Innovative Change (see glossary) within a construction industry organisation tends to require a certain level of ‘readiness’. This readiness is the combination of an organisation’s ability to part from undertakings that may be old, traditional, or inefficient; and then being able to readily adopt a procedure or initiative which is new, improved, or more efficient. Despite the construction industry’s awareness of the various threats and opportunities associated with the delivery of change, research found little attention is currently given to develop a ‘decision-making framework’ that comprises measurable elements (dynamics) that may assist in more accurately determining an organisation’s level of readiness or ability to deliver innovative change. To resolve this, an initial Background Literature Review in 2004 identified six such dynamics, those of Change, Innovation, Implementation, Culture, Leadership, and Training and Education, which were then hypothesised to be key components of a ‘Conceptual Decision-making Framework’ (CDF) for delivering innovative change within an organisation. To support this hypothesis, a second (more extensive) Literature Review was undertaken from late 2007 to mid 2009. A Delphi study was embarked on in June 2008, inviting fifteen building and construction industry members to form a panel and take part in a Delphi study. The selection criterion required panel members to have senior positions (manager and above) within a recognised field or occupation, and to have experience, understanding and / or knowledge in the process of delivering change within organisations. The final panel comprised nine representatives from private and public industry organisations and tertiary / research and development (R&D) universities. The Delphi study developed, distributed and collated two rounds of survey questionnaires over a four-month period, comprising open-ended and closed questions (referred to as factors). The first round of Delphi survey questionnaires were distributed to the panel in August 2008, asking them to rate the relevancy of the six hypothesised dynamics. In early September 2008, round-one responses were returned, analysed and documented. From this, an additional three dynamics were identified and confirmed by the panel as being highly relevant during the decision-making process when delivering innovative change within an organisation. The additional dynamics (‘Knowledge-sharing and Management’; ‘Business Process Requirements’; and ‘Life-cycle Costs’) were then added to the first six dynamics and used to populate the second (final) Delphi survey questionnaire. This was distributed to the same nine panel members in October 2008, this time asking them to rate the relevancy of all nine dynamics. In November 2008, round-two responses were returned, analysed, summarised and documented. Final results confirmed stability in responses and met Delphi study guidelines. The final contribution is twofold. Firstly, findings confirm all nine dynamics as key components of the proposed CDF for delivering innovative change within an organisation. Secondly, the future development and testing of an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Process’ (ICDP) is proposed, one that is underpinned by an ‘Innovative Change Decision-making Framework’ (ICDF), an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Analysis’ (ICDA) program, and an ‘Innovative Change Delivery Guide’ (ICDG).

The importance of organisational culture to improve a project selection process : case of public infrastructure project in Indonesia

Project selection is a decision-making process that is not merely influenced by technical aspects but also by the people who involved in the process. Organisational culture is described as a set of values and norms that are shared by people within the organisation that affects the way they interact with each other and with stakeholders from outside the organisation. The aim of this paper is to emphasize the importance of organisational culture on improving the quality of decisions in the project selection process, in addition to the influence of technical aspects of a project. The discussion is based on an extensive literature review and, as such, represents the first part of a research agenda investigating the impact of organisational culture on the project selection process applicable specifically to road infrastructure contracts. Four existing models of organisational culture (Denison 1990; Cameron and Quinn 2006; Hofstede 2001; Glaser et al 1987) are discussed and reviewed in view of their use in the larger research project to investigate the impact of culture on identified critical elements of decision-making. An understating of the way organisational culture impacts on project selection will increase the likelihood in future of relevant government departments selecting projects that achieve their stated organisational goals.

The impact of organisational culture on the project selection process : The case of public infrastructure project in Indonesia

Project selection is a complex decision-making process as it involves multiple objectives, constraints and stakeholders. Understanding the organisation, in particular organisational culture, is an essential stage in improving decision-making process. The influences of organisational culture on decision-making can be seen in the way people work as a team, act and cooperate in their teamwork to achieve the set goals, and also in how people think, prioritize and decide. This paper aims to give evidence of the impact of organisational culture on the decision-making process in project selection, in the Indonesian context. Data was collected from a questionnaire survey developed based on the existing models of organisational culture (Denison 1990, Hofstede 2001, and Glaser et al 1987). Four main cultural traits (involvement, consistency, mission and power-distance) were selected and employed to examine the influence of organisational culture on the effectiveness of decision-making in the current Indonesian project selection processes. The results reveal that there are differences in organisational cultures for two organisations in three provinces. It also suggests that organisational culture (particularly the traits of ‘involvement’, ‘consistency’ and ‘mission’) contribute to the effectiveness of decision-making in the selected cases.

Ethical decision making and health care managers : developing managerial profiles based on ethical frameworks and other influencing factors

Whether the community is looking for “scapegoats” to blame, or seeking more radical and deeper causes, health care managers are in the firing line whenever there are woes in the health care sector. The public has a right to question whether ethics have much influence on the everyday decision making of health care managers. This thesis explores, through a series of published papers, the influence of ethics and other factors on the decision making of health care managers in Australia. Critical review of over 40 years of research on ethical decision making has revealed a large number of influencing factors, but there is a demonstrable lack of a multidimensional approach that measures the combined influences of these factors on managers. This thesis has developed an instrument, the Managerial Ethical Profile (MEP) scale, based on a multidimensional model combining a large number of influencing factors. The MEP scale measures the range of influences on individual managers, and describes the major tendencies by developing a number of empirical profiles derived from a hierarchical cluster analysis. The instrument was developed and refined through a process of pilot studies on academics and students (n=41) and small-business managers (n=41), and then was administered to the larger sample of health care managers (n=441). Results from this study indicate that Australian health care managers draw on a range of ethical frameworks in their everyday decision making, forming the basis of five MEPs (Knights, Guardian Angels, Duty Followers, Defenders, and Chameleons). Results from the study also indicate that the range of individual, organisational, and external factors that influence decision making can be grouped into three major clusters or functions. Cross referencing these functions and other demographic data to the MEPs provides analytical insight into the characteristics of the MEPs. These five profiles summarise existing strengths and weaknesses in managerial ethical decision making. Therefore identifying these profiles not only can contribute to increasing organisational knowledge and self-awareness, but also has clear implications for the design and implementation of ethics education and training in large scale organisations in the health care industry.

Management characteristics and the decision to internationalize : Exploration of exporters vs. non-exporters within the Chilean wine industry

The objective of this exploratory study was to identify the key factors that enhance and inhibit the export activities of wineries and identify differences between exporters and non-exporters. Based on data collected from Chilean wineries, the findings of this study suggest that the major constraints for non-exporters are the lack of financial resources, limited quantities of stocks for market expansion, management’s lack of knowledge and experience, and the high cost of travelling and participating in trade shows. In addition, the main international markets for Chilean wineries were not psychically close markets as has been found for Australian or other wine industries. For domestic market oriented wineries cellar door sales were an important source of revenue. Finally, the results show that managers have educational levels and international experience exceeding those of other comparable New World wineries.