Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

The six-minute walk test and body weight-walk distance product in healthy Brazilian subjects

We assessed the 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and body weight x distance product (6MWw) in healthy Brazilian subjects and compared measured 6MWD with values predicted in five reference equations developed for other populations. Anthropometry, spirometry, reported physical activity, and two walk tests in a 30-m corridor were evaluated in 134 subjects (73 females, 13-84 years). Mean 6MWD and 6MWw were significantly greater in males than in females (622 ± 80 m, 46,322 ± 10,539 kg.m vs 551 ± 71 m, 36,356 ± 8,289 kg.m, P < 0.05). Four equations significantly overestimated measured 6MWD (range, 32 ± 71 to 137 ± 74 m; P < 0.001), and one significantly underestimated it (-36 ± 86 m; P < 0.001). 6MWD significantly correlated with age (r = -0.39), height (r = 0.44), body mass index (r = -0.24), and reported physical activity (r = 0.25). 6MWw significantly correlated with age (r = -0.21), height (r = 0.66) and reported physical activity (r = 0.25). The reference equation devised for walk distance was 6MWDm = 622.461 - (1.846 x Ageyears) + (61.503 x Gendermales = 1; females = 0); r2 = 0.300. In an additional group of 85 subjects prospectively studied, the difference between measured and the 6MWD predicted with the equation proposed here was not significant (-3 ± 68 m; P = 0.938). The measured 6MWD represented 99.6 ± 11.9% of the predicted value. We conclude that 6MWD and 6MWw variances were adequately explained by demographic and anthropometric attributes. This reference equation is probably most appropriate for evaluating the exercise capacity of Brazilian patients with chronic diseases.

Validity of the running anaerobic sprint test for assessing anaerobic power and predicting short-distance performances

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Application of compression test in analysis of mechanical and color changes in grapefruit juice powder as related to glass transition and water activity

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Synchronous machines parameters identification using load rejection test data

This work shows a computational methodology for the determination of synchronous machines parameters using load rejection test data. The quadrature axis parameters are obtained with a rejection under an arbitrary reference, reducing the present difficulties.

Identification of synchronous machine parameters using load rejection test data

This work shows a computational methodology for the determination of synchronous machines parameters using load rejection test data. By machine modeling one can obtain the quadrature parameters through a load rejection under an arbitrary reference, reducing the present difficulties. The proposed method is applied to a real machine.

Performance of CMS hadron calorimeter timing and synchronization using test beam, cosmic ray, and LHC beam data

This paper discusses the design and performance of the time measurement technique and of the synchronization systems of the CMS hadron calorimeter. Time measurement performance results are presented from test beam data taken in the years 2004 and 2006. For hadronic showers of energy greater than 100 GeV, the timing resolution is measured to be about 1.2 ns. Time synchronization and out-of-time background rejection results are presented from the Cosmic Run At Four Tesla and LHC beam runs taken in the Autumn of 2008. The inter-channel synchronization is measured to be within 2 ns. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd and SISSA.

Analysis of primary stability of dental implants inserted in different substrates using the pullout test and insertion torque

The aim of the study was to evaluate mechanical behavior of implants inserted in three substrates, by measuring the pullout strength and the relative stiffness. 32 implants (Master Porous-Conexao, cylindrical, external hexagon, and surface treatment) were divided into 4 groups (n = 8): pig rib bone, polyurethane Synbone, polyurethane Nacional 40 PCF, and pinus wood. Implants were installed with the exact distance of 5 mm of another implant. The insertion torque (N·cm) was quantified using the digital Kratos torque meter and the pullout test (N) was performed by an axial traction force toward the long axis of the implant (2 min/mm) through mount implant devices attached to a piece adapted to a load cell of 200 Kg of a universal testing machine (Emic DL10000). Data of insertion torque and maximum pullout force were submitted to one-way ANOVA and Bonferroni tests (α = 0.05). Polyurethane Nacional 40 PCF and pinus wood showed the highest values of insertion torque and pullout force, with significant statistical difference (P < 0.05) with other groups. The analysis showed stiffness materials with the highest values for primary stability. © 2013 Nathalia Ferraz Oliscovicz et al.

A model of road effect using line integrals and a test of the performance of two new road indices using the distribution of small mammals in an Atlantic Forest landscape

Effects of roads on wildlife and its habitat have been measured using metrics, such as the nearest road distance, road density, and effective mesh size. In this work we introduce two new indices: (1) Integral Road Effect (IRE), which measured the sum effects of points in a road at a fixed point in the forest; and (2) Average Value of the Infinitesimal Road Effect (AVIRE), which measured the average of the effects of roads at this point. IRE is formally defined as the line integral of a special function (the infinitesimal road effect) along the curves that model the roads, whereas AVIRE is the quotient of IRE by the length of the roads. Combining tools of ArcGIS software with a numerical algorithm, we calculated these and other road and habitat cover indices in a sample of points in a human-modified landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where data on the abundance of two groups of small mammals (forest specialists and habitat generalists) were collected in the field. We then compared through the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a set of candidate regression models to explain the variation in small mammal abundance, including models with our two new road indices (AVIRE and IRE) or models with other road effect indices (nearest road distance, mesh size, and road density), and reference models (containing only habitat indices, or only the intercept without the effect of any variable). Compared to other road effect indices, AVIRE showed the best performance to explain abundance of forest specialist species, whereas the nearest road distance obtained the best performance to generalist species. AVIRE and habitat together were included in the best model for both small mammal groups, that is, higher abundance of specialist and generalist small mammals occurred where there is lower average road effect (less AVIRE) and more habitat. Moreover, AVIRE was not significantly correlated with habitat cover of specialists and generalists differing from the other road effect indices, except mesh size, which allows for separating the effect of roads from the effect of habitat on small mammal communities. We suggest that the proposed indices and GIS procedures could also be useful to describe other spatial ecological phenomena, such as edge effect in habitat fragments. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sviluppo di metodologie di localizzazione nel contesto del Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty

Since the first underground nuclear explosion, carried out in 1958, the analysis of seismic signals generated by these sources has allowed seismologists to refine the travel times of seismic waves through the Earth and to verify the accuracy of the location algorithms (the ground truth for these sources was often known). Long international negotiates have been devoted to limit the proliferation and testing of nuclear weapons. In particular the Treaty for the comprehensive nuclear test ban (CTBT), was opened to signatures in 1996, though, even if it has been signed by 178 States, has not yet entered into force, The Treaty underlines the fundamental role of the seismological observations to verify its compliance, by detecting and locating seismic events, and identifying the nature of their sources. A precise definition of the hypocentral parameters represents the first step to discriminate whether a given seismic event is natural or not. In case that a specific event is retained suspicious by the majority of the State Parties, the Treaty contains provisions for conducting an on-site inspection (OSI) in the area surrounding the epicenter of the event, located through the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBT Organization. An OSI is supposed to include the use of passive seismic techniques in the area of the suspected clandestine underground nuclear test. In fact, high quality seismological systems are thought to be capable to detect and locate very weak aftershocks triggered by underground nuclear explosions in the first days or weeks following the test. This PhD thesis deals with the development of two different seismic location techniques: the first one, known as the double difference joint hypocenter determination (DDJHD) technique, is aimed at locating closely spaced events at a global scale. The locations obtained by this method are characterized by a high relative accuracy, although the absolute location of the whole cluster remains uncertain. We eliminate this problem introducing a priori information: the known location of a selected event. The second technique concerns the reliable estimates of back azimuth and apparent velocity of seismic waves from local events of very low magnitude recorded by a trypartite array at a very local scale. For the two above-mentioned techniques, we have used the crosscorrelation technique among digital waveforms in order to minimize the errors linked with incorrect phase picking. The cross-correlation method relies on the similarity between waveforms of a pair of events at the same station, at the global scale, and on the similarity between waveforms of the same event at two different sensors of the try-partite array, at the local scale. After preliminary tests on the reliability of our location techniques based on simulations, we have applied both methodologies to real seismic events. The DDJHD technique has been applied to a seismic sequence occurred in the Turkey-Iran border region, using the data recorded by the IMS. At the beginning, the algorithm was applied to the differences among the original arrival times of the P phases, so the cross-correlation was not used. We have obtained that the relevant geometrical spreading, noticeable in the standard locations (namely the locations produced by the analysts of the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT Organization, assumed as our reference), has been considerably reduced by the application of our technique. This is what we expected, since the methodology has been applied to a sequence of events for which we can suppose a real closeness among the hypocenters, belonging to the same seismic structure. Our results point out the main advantage of this methodology: the systematic errors affecting the arrival times have been removed or at least reduced. The introduction of the cross-correlation has not brought evident improvements to our results: the two sets of locations (without and with the application of the cross-correlation technique) are very similar to each other. This can be commented saying that the use of the crosscorrelation has not substantially improved the precision of the manual pickings. Probably the pickings reported by the IDC are good enough to make the random picking error less important than the systematic error on travel times. As a further justification for the scarce quality of the results given by the cross-correlation, it should be remarked that the events included in our data set don’t have generally a good signal to noise ratio (SNR): the selected sequence is composed of weak events ( magnitude 4 or smaller) and the signals are strongly attenuated because of the large distance between the stations and the hypocentral area. In the local scale, in addition to the cross-correlation, we have performed a signal interpolation in order to improve the time resolution. The algorithm so developed has been applied to the data collected during an experiment carried out in Israel between 1998 and 1999. The results pointed out the following relevant conclusions: a) it is necessary to correlate waveform segments corresponding to the same seismic phases; b) it is not essential to select the exact first arrivals; and c) relevant information can be also obtained from the maximum amplitude wavelet of the waveforms (particularly in bad SNR conditions). Another remarkable point of our procedure is that its application doesn’t demand a long time to process the data, and therefore the user can immediately check the results. During a field survey, such feature will make possible a quasi real-time check allowing the immediate optimization of the array geometry, if so suggested by the results at an early stage.

Development of Software Tools for the Test of Ultra Wide Band Receivers

In the last years, the importance of locating people and objects and communicating with them in real time has become a common occurrence in every day life. Nowadays, the state of the art of location systems for indoor environments has not a dominant technology as instead occurs in location systems for outdoor environments, where GPS is the dominant technology. In fact, each location technology for indoor environments presents a set of features that do not allow their use in the overall application scenarios, but due its characteristics, it can well coexist with other similar technologies, without being dominant and more adopted than the others indoor location systems. In this context, the European project SELECT studies the opportunity of collecting all these different features in an innovative system which can be used in a large number of application scenarios. The goal of this project is to realize a wireless system, where a network of fixed readers able to query one or more tags attached to objects to be located. The SELECT consortium is composed of European institutions and companies, including Datalogic S.p.A. and CNIT, which deal with software and firmware development of the baseband receiving section of the readers, whose function is to acquire and process the information received from generic tagged objects. Since the SELECT project has an highly innovative content, one of the key stages of the system design is represented by the debug phase. This work aims to study and develop tools and techniques that allow to perform the debug phase of the firmware of the baseband receiving section of the readers.

Biodegradable polymer drug-eluting stents reduce the risk of stent thrombosis at 4 years in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: a pooled analysis of individual patient data from the ISAR-TEST 3, ISAR-TEST 4, and LEADERS randomized trials

The efficacy of durable polymer drug-eluting stents (DES) is delivered at the expense of delayed healing of the stented vessel. Biodegradable polymer DES aim to avoid this shortcoming and may potentially improve long-term clinical outcomes, with benefit expected to accrue over time. We sought to compare long-term outcomes in patients treated with biodegradable polymer DES vs. durable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents (SES).