Prospecção do futuro nas empresas: uma proposta de modelo para integração entre o estudo do futuro e a estratégia empresarial

Esta tese buscou estudar a integração entre a prospecção do futuro e projetos dentro do escopo da estratégia. Decisões envolvendo projetos no âmbito da estratégia das organizações são para horizontes de tempo de médio ou longo prazo. Nessa situação, gestores precisam lidar com incertezas de futuro, e para isso podem recorrer às metodologias de prospecção do futuro. O estudo do futuro é atividade complexa, pela abrangência de temas a serem considerados, contudo, é provável que gestores pratiquem essa atividade devido à responsabilidade assumida por suas decisões. A prática de metodologia prospectiva gera resultados, e estes podem contribuir nas decisões em projetos estratégicos. A literatura de estudos do futuro contém recomendações sobre como praticar metodologia prospectiva, porém aborda menos a utilização dos resultados de estudos prospectivos e a sua contribuição para a estratégia empresarial. Ela se concentra mais nos processos de desenvolvimento dos projetos de prospecção para se chegar aos resultados. Dessa forma, esta tese visou ao estudo da utilização dos resultados da prospecção nas decisões de projetos no âmbito da estratégia empresarial. Os fenômenos estudados envolvem a transição entre a prática da prospecção do futuro, a consequente disponibilidade de seus resultados e a contribuição dos mesmos nos processos de análise prospectiva para suporte a decisões. O objetivo geral da tese é a proposta de um modelo que contribua nessa transição. A metodologia utilizada foi mista - quantitativa e qualitativa - desenvolvida por meio de survey e entrevistas, e a abordagem utilizada foi exploratória e descritiva. Os resultados indicam haver limitações na integração entre prospecção do futuro e estratégia empresarial. Foi identificado que a prospecção do futuro é considerada importante pelos gestores participantes da pesquisa. Em contraste, a transição para a sua prática, passando pela disponibilidade de seus resultados, e a posterior utilização deles em processos de suporte à tomada de decisões em projetos estratégicos, apresenta limitações. Os resultados indicam que, apesar da importância da atividade de prospecção, gestores avaliam que ela é praticada em um nível mais baixo, e ao final a contribuição de seus resultados é avaliada em nível ainda mais baixo. Isso é mais evidente nas empresas de menor quantidade de funcionários, menor faturamento, de capital fechado ou limitado, sendo que nessas empresas a prospecção é para horizonte de tempo mais curto. Já gestores de empresas com maior quantidade de funcionários, maior faturamento e de capital aberto lidam melhor com a prospecção do futuro, sendo que estudam seus projetos estratégicos em horizonte de tempo mais longo. Observou-se que as principais limitações identificadas estão relacionadas com o conhecimento das metodologias de prospecção do futuro, e isso limita principalmente a identificação de temas importantes a serem estudados e monitorados acerca do futuro, configurando-se como lacunas de análise prospectiva ou pontos cegos. Por decorrência disso, a contribuição da prospecção na estratégia empresarial sofre limitações. Conclui-se, portanto, que a integração entre prospecção do futuro e a estratégia empresarial poderia ser facilitada por meio do uso de um modelo de suporte, voltado para: (1) reduzir a possibilidade de lacunas de análise prospectiva; e (2) suportar a avaliação: da prática da prospecção do futuro, do uso dos seus resultados nas decisões, e finalmente da aplicação da expertise sobre prospecção do futuro na empresa. Os resultados confirmam que o modelo proposto contribuiria na integração da prospecção do futuro com a estratégia empresarial.

Developing Emotional Security Among Children Who Have Been Adopted

This study investigated the development of emotional security among 6-10 year old children who have been adopted by exposing them to an experimental condition during which they could engage with either a live dog or a robotic dog. The live dog was a certified therapy dog; the robotic dog was a FurReal® toy marketed by Hasbro as "Biscuit." Utilizing a mixed-method embedded experimental design, the experimental condition was intentionally structured to promote engagement between the participant and the dog or robot. 43 children who had been adopted from the child welfare system were randomly assigned to one of two groups. One group was exposed to a therapy dog (n=22), while another was exposed to the social robotic dog (n=21). The development of emotional security was targeted for measurement in this study using the "Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test," a test of social understanding that has been linked in the literature to oxytocin- a hormone premised to be a marker of the development of emotional security. Physiological anxiety was also measured as an indicator of emotional security using the Revised Child Manifest Anxiety Scale-2 (RCMAS-2). Both measures were administered before and after exposure to the experimental condition. A linear mixed-effect regression analysis showed that for boys only, there was a significant effect of engagement with either companion on social understanding (p<.01). Social understanding decreased as engagement increased. A second model indicated that for boys only, their history of animal cruelty had a significant effect on physiological anxiety (p<.05). If boys had an animal cruelty history, their anxiety was reduced after the exposure to either the dog or robot. Interpretations of the findings suggest that there are differences among children who have been adopted and have a history of animal cruelty that differentially influences their development of emotional security. Social work interventions designed for practice with children who have been adopted will need to assess the presence of these variations and develop appropriate treatment protocols.

Mental Health Effects of Equine Therapy with Children

This study examined the effects of eight weekly lessons of therapeutic horseback riding (THR) on five children between the ages of 6 and 12 years who displayed behavioral issues, mood disturbance, relationship issues, or other mental health disorders. All of the children's parents/caregivers completed the Child Behavior Checklist for Ages 6-18 at the onset of the lessons and at the conclusion of the lessons. The children did not show any significant improvement on the Internalizing, Externalizing, Total Problems scales or the syndrome scales. However, comparisons between the pre-test and post-test scores on the Behavior scale and the Externalizing scale showed positive trends which warrant further study. The lack of significance in the data suggests that a greater participant population or a mixed method study using a combination of quantitative and qualitative strategies may yield more conclusive results.

Certificación medioambiental, competitividad y resultado empresarial: un estudio híbrido en el sector hotelero

La Responsabilidad Social en general, y la Gestión Medioambiental en particular, pueden influir sobre el resultado y la competitividad de las empresas. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es analizar la relación entre certificación medioambiental, rendimiento medioambiental, competitividad y resultado empresarial en el sector hotelero español. Además, también se analizan y comparan los niveles alcanzados de proactividad medioambiental para el grupo de hoteles certificados y no certificados. El método de investigación utilizado es híbrido, combinando una parte cualitativa con otra cuantitativa. Los resultados indican que los hoteles que tienen certificado su sistema de Gestión Medioambiental alcanzan mayores niveles de resultado en términos de porcentaje de ocupación e ingresos por habitación disponible (RevPAR). Además, los hoteles certificados obtienen un mejor rendimiento medioambiental. Con relación a la ventaja competitiva, los hoteles certificados desarrollan una ventaja en diferenciación significativamente superior.

Concepciones de profesores de nivel medio superior sobre el uso de la historia de la matemática

En esta comunicación se presentan resultados de una investigación cuyo objeto fue analizar concepciones de profesores de matemáticas de nivel medio superior sobre la inclusión de la historia de la matemática en su práctica docente. Se usó un método mixto para la recogida y análisis de datos. Para detectar concepciones de los profesores, se elaboraron un cuestionario y una entrevista. Los resultados de su aplicación indican que la mayoría de los profesores del estudio no están habituados a considerar la historia de la matemática en su enseñanza; además sus concepciones sobre incluir este recurso están condicionadas por su visión del sistema educativo.

Analysis of physical and physiological requirements in soccer trainings in young soccer players (under -10 years)

The aim of this study is to analyse the physical and physiological factors in soccer training at different categories of training. The participants were 30 soccer players of 8-aside soccer in the under 10’s age group (9.93±0.25 years) who participated in the under 10 Provincial Tournament in Alicante. During training, the variables of covered distance, heart rate, speed (average and maximum values) as well as the methodology used and position were registered. After the statistical analysis and its related discussion, it was concluded that the players do not show differences in the covered total distance in relation to the category. Notwithstanding, there are differences with regards to speed and heart rate, which are caused by the greater physical development of the players in comparison to the under10’s age group category. Regarding the methodology employed, it is worth stressing that the coaches used, to a greater extend, the global method, followed by the mixed method.

Reto educativo : la incorporación de la perspectiva de género en los libros de texto : contrastes y semejanzas entre los manuales empleados en Castelo Branco, Portugal y Michoacán, México

El objetivo de este artículo es presentar los resultados del análisis de un conjunto de libros de texto con la finalidad de averiguar si las imágenes en ellos contenidas promueven los principios de igualdad y equidad de género. La muestra tomada para el estudio se compone de un total de seis manuales del curso escolar 2010/2011, tres de Michoacán, México, y tres de Castelo Branco, Portugal, correspondientes a las asignaturas de ciencias, lengua y geografía. Se utilizaron estratégias metodológicas mixtas, debido a que el empleo de métodos de corte cuantitativo y de corte cualitativo nos ofrece la posibilidad de elaborar un análisis que, además de contrastar los datos obtenidos, profundiza sobre la temática abordada. Los resultados obtenidos indican que los y las adolescentes no disponen, en los manuales examinados, de referentes suficientes que les permitan romper/ deconstruir los estereotipos de género tradicionalmente atribuidos a uno y otro sexo. Tanto las ilustraciones como el contenido de las mismas muestran mayoritariamente a mujeres desempeñando papeles psicosociales relacionados con el cuidado de los otros/as, mientras que los hombres aparecen casi siempre realizando trabajos remunerados y de prestigio (científicos, gobernantes). En las conclusiones de este artículo se cuestiona la presencia del sexismo en los libros de texto, con la intención de incorporar la perspectiva de género a los manuales didácticos, lo que permitiría transmitir al alumnado patrones de comportamiento y modelos que se ajusten a una realidad social regida por la igualdad y la justicia.

The Financialization of Food: An Inquiry into the 2008-2011 Food Price Spikes

This dissertation investigates the question: has financial speculation contributed to global food price volatility since the mid 2000s? I problematize the mainstream academic literature on the 2008-2011 food price spikes as being dominated by neoclassical economic perspectives and offer new conceptual and empirical insights into the relationship between financial speculation and food. Presented in three journal style manuscripts, manuscript one uses circuits of capital to conceptualize the link between financial speculators in the global north and populations in the global south. Manuscript two argues that what makes commodity index speculation (aka ‘index funds’ or index swaps) novel is that it provides institutional investors with what Clapp (2014) calls “financial distance” from the biopolitical implications of food speculation. Finally, manuscript three combines Gramsci’s concepts of hegemony and ‘the intellectual’ with the concept of performativity to investigate the ideological role that public intellectuals and the rhetorical actor the market play in the proliferation and governance of commodity index speculation. The first two manuscripts take an empirically mixed method approach by combining regression analysis with discourse analysis, while the third relies on interview data and discourse analysis. The findings show that financial speculation by index swap dealers and hedge funds did indeed significantly contribute to the price volatility of food commodities between June 2006 and December 2014. The results from the interview data affirm these findings. The discourse analysis of the interview data shows that public intellectuals and rhetorical characters such as ‘the market’ play powerful roles in shaping how food speculation is promoted, regulated and normalized. The significance of the findings is three-fold. First, the empirical findings show that a link does exist between financial speculation and food price volatility. Second, the findings indicate that the post-2008 CFTC and the Dodd-Frank reforms are unlikely to reduce financial speculation or the price volatility that it causes. Third, the findings suggest that institutional investors (such as pension funds) should think critically about how they use commodity index speculation as a way of generating financial earnings.

Farewell to the Welfare : On the role of chronic stress in lifestyle migration

While studies concerned with migration and the welfare, or migration and stress, have been focusing on either notions of a welfare-magnet or issues related to PTSDs, representing an overt research focus on migration from poorer to richer nations, none have explored the possible role of chronic stress as an underlying trigger for wishing to escape the welfare society. This study explores just this, elaborating upon the lifestyle-concept. Using the latest financial crisis as a theoretical turning point, a comparative case study was performed with Swedish migrant entrepreneurs in Costa del Sol, as compared to previously performed studies from the area. Fourteen semi-structured interviews were carried out with different actors for the purpose of triangulation. Statistics were used for an elementary understanding, in a mixed method design. Analysis was performed on macro to micro scales, providing findings in line with previous research on lifestyle-migration. New findings however include a recognition of long-term exposure to stress as an underlying trigger for wishing to escape the welfare-society, as well as the perception of the holiday-destination as the antithesis to stress making it the preferred choice for relocation. The paper concludes that if stress push people away from Sweden, it can be considered global in scope.

Complexity, conflict and uncertainty: Issues in collaboration between child protection and mental health services

This paper provides an analysis of data from a state-wide survey of statutory child protection workers, adult mental health workers, and child mental health workers. Respondents provided details of their experience of collaboration on cases where a parent had mental health problems and there were serious child protection concerns. The survey was conducted as part of a large mixed-method research project on developing best practice at the intersection of child protection and mental health services. Descriptions of 300 cases were provided by 122 respondents. Analyses revealed that a great deal of collaboration occur-red across a wide range of government and community-based agencies; that collaborative processes were often positive and rewarding for workers; and that collaboration was most difficult when the nature of the parental mental illness or the need for child protection intervention was contested. The difficulties experienced included communication, role clarity, competing primary focus, contested parental mental health needs, contested child protection needs, and resources. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The dynamics of HRM systems in Indian BPO firms

This paper highlights the context within which business process outsourcing (BPO) has rapidly grown in India and the critical need to investigate the dynamics of human resource management (HRM) practices and systems in this sector. Using a mixed-method approach involving both in-depth interviews and self-completing questionnaires, we analyze the nature of HRM systems in BPO organizations operating in India. The analysis is based on a sample of 51 BPO companies, a majority of which are located near the capital of New Delhi. The results focus on the nature and structure of work and organization of Indian BPOs, as well as the strategic role played by HRM in such organizations. Furthermore, the findings highlight the way specific HRM practices such as recruitment, performance appraisal, training and development, and compensations are implemented. Our study suggests the existence of formal, structured, and rationalized HRM systems in Indian BPOs. A number of insights related to HRM policies and practices are shared by the HR managers interviewed shedding more light on the inner workings of the Indian BPO companies and their challenges. The analysis provides original and useful information to both academics and practitioners and opens avenues for future research on the nature of HRM systems and practices in the Indian BPO industry.

Community accessibility of health information and the consequent impact for translation into community languages

This paper reports on a research project that investigated the accessibility of health information and the consequent impact for translation into community languages. This is a critical aspect of the mediation of intercultural and interlingual communication in the domain of public health information and yet very little research has been undertaken to address such issues. The project was carried out in collaboration with the New South Wales Multicultural Health Communication Service (MHCS), which provides advice and services to state-based health professionals aiming to communicate with non-English speaking communities. The research employed a mixed-method and action research based approach involving two phases. The primary focus of this paper is to discuss major quantitative findings from the first pilot phase, which indicated that there is much room to improve the way in which health information is written in English for effective community-wide communication within a multilingual society.

Organisational receptivity for change:combining context and capability to explain competitive advantage

This thesis explores efforts to conjoin organisational contexts and capabilities in explaining sustainable competitive advantage. Oliver (1997) argued organisations need to balance the need to conform to industry’s requirements to attain legitimization (e.g. DiMaggio & Powell, 1983), and the need for resource optimization (e.g. Barney, 1991). The author hypothesized that such balance can be viewed as movements along the homogeneity-heterogeneity continuum. An organisation in a homogenous industry possesses similar characteristics as its competitors, as opposed to a heterogeneous industry in which organisations within are differentiated and competitively positioned (Oliver, 1997). The movement is influenced by the dynamic environmental conditions that an organisation is experiencing. The author extended Oliver’s (1997) propositions of combining RBV’s focus on capabilities with institutional theory’s focus on organisational context, as well as redefining organisational receptivity towards change (ORC) factors from Butler and Allen’s (2008) findings. The authors contributed to the theoretical development of ORC theory to explain the attainment of sustainable competitive advantage. ORC adopts the assumptions from both institutional and RBV theories, where the receptivity factors include both organisational contexts and capabilities. The thesis employed a mixed method approach in which sequential qualitative quantitative studies were deployed to establish a robust, reliable, and valid ORC scale. The adoption of Hinkin’s (1995) three-phase scale development process was updated, thus items generated from interviews and literature reviews went through numerous exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to achieve convergent, discriminant, and nomological validities. Samples in the first phase (semi structured interviews) were hotel owners and managers. In the second phase, samples were MBA students, and employees of private and public sectors. In the third phase, samples were hotel managers. The final ORC scale is a parsimonious second higher-order latent construct. The first-order constructs comprises four latent receptivity factors which are ideological vision (4 items), leading change (4 items), implementation capacity (4 items), and change orientation (7 items). Hypotheses testing revealed that high levels of perceived environmental uncertainty leads to high levels of receptivity factor. Furthermore, the study found a strong positive correlation between receptivity factors and competitive advantage, and between receptivity factors and organisation performance. Mediation analyses revealed that receptivity factors partially mediate the relationship between perceived environmental uncertainty, competitive advantage and organisational performance.

Expanding the evidence within evidence-based healthcare:thinking about the context, acceptability and feasibility of interventions

Evidence-based medicine is crucial to contemporary healthcare. It is dependent on systematic review methodology modelled on an arguably inadequate hierarchy of evidence. There has been a significant increase in medical and health research using qualitative and mixed method designs. The perspective taken in this article is that we need to broaden our evidence base if we are to fully take account of issues of context, acceptability and feasibility in the development and implementation of healthcare interventions. One way of doing this is to use a range of methods that better fit the different aspects of intervention development and implementation. Methods for the systematic review of evidence, other than randomised-controlled trials, are available and there is a readiness to incorporate these other types of evidence into good-practice guidance, but we need a clear methodology to translate these advances in research into the world of policy.

Extreme weather events and construction SMEs:vulnerability, impacts and responses

Purpose – The UK experienced a number of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) during recent years and a significant number of businesses were affected as a result. With the intensity and frequency of weather extremes predicted in the future, enhancing the resilience of businesses, especially of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), who are considered as highly vulnerable, has become a necessity. However, little research has been undertaken on how construction SMEs respond to the risk of EWEs. In seeking to help address this dearth of research, this investigation sought to identify how construction SMEs were being affected by EWEs and the coping strategies being used. Design/methodology/approach – A mixed methods research design was adopted to elicit information from construction SMEs, involving a questionnaire survey and case study approach. Findings – Results indicate a lack of coping strategies among the construction SMEs studied. Where the coping strategies have been implemented, these were found to be extensions of their existing risk management strategies rather than radical measures specifically addressing EWEs. Research limitations/implications – The exploratory survey focused on the Greater London area and was limited to a relatively small sample size. This limitation is overcome by conducting detailed case studies utilising two SMEs whose projects were located in EWE prone localities. The mixed method research design adopted benefits the research by presenting more robust findings. Practical implications – A better way of integrating the potential of EWEs into the initial project planning stage is required by the SMEs. This could possibly be achieved through a better risk assessment model supported by better EWE prediction data. Originality/value – The paper provides an original contribution towards the overarching agenda of resilience of SMEs and policy making in the area of EWE risk management. It informs both policy makers and practitioners on issues of planning and preparedness against EWEs.