Inflation targeting and the consistency of monetary policy decisions in Mexico: an empirical analysis with discrete choice models

This paper examines the nature of monetary policy decisions in Mexico using discrete choice models applied to the Central Bank's explicit monetary policy instrument. We find that monetary policy adjustments in Mexico have been strongly consistent with the CB's inflation targeting strategy. We also find evidence that monetary policy responds in a forward-looking manner to deviations of inflation from the target and that observed policy adjustments exhibit asymmetric features, with stronger responses to positive than to negative deviations of inflation from the target and a greater likelihood of policy persistence during periods when monetary policy is tightened, compared with periods when policy is loosened.

Macroeconomic effects of monetary policy in the Eurozone

To study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy across the different countries of the eurozone, I develop an identification scheme to disentangle conventional from non-conventional policy shocks, using futures contracts on overnight interest rates and the size of the European Central Bank balance sheet. Setting these shocks as endogenous variables in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, along with the CPI and the employment rate, estimated impulse response functions of policy to macroeconomic variables are studied. I find that unconventional policy shocks generated mixed effects in inflation but had a positive impact on employment, with the exception of Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy where the employment response is close to zero or negative. The heterogeneity that characterizes the responses shows that the monetary policy measures taken in recent years were not sufficient to stabilize the economies of the eurozone countries under more severe economic conditions.

Effects of quantitative easing on the USA economy: A test for policy effectiveness

The catastrophic disruption in the USA financial system in the wake of the financial crisis prompted the Federal Reserve to launch a Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in late 2008. In line with Pesaran and Smith (2014), I use a policy effectiveness test to assess whether this massive asset purchase programme was effective in stimulating the economic activity in the USA. Specifically, I employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), in order to obtain a counterfactual for the USA real GDP growth rate. Using data from 1983Q1 to 2009Q4, the results show that the beneficial effects of QE appear to be weak and rather short-lived. The null hypothesis of policy ineffectiveness is not rejected, which suggests that QE did not have a meaningful impact on output growth.

Strategies for economic development in the Commonwealth Caribbean: a comparative study of the foreign economic policy strategies adopted by the Manley government in Jamaica and the Williams government in Trinidad and Tobago

This thesis compares the foreign economic poUcy dimension of the development strategies adopted by the governments of two Commonwealth caribbean countries: The Hardey government In Jamaica, and the· Williams government in Trlnidad and T ooago, The foreign economic policIes adopted by these governments appeared, on the surface~ to be markedly dissimilar. The Jamakan strategv on the one hand, emphasised self-reliance and national autonomy; and featured the espousal of radical oonaHgnment together with attempts to re-deftne the terms of the Islands externaa economIc relaUoos. The Trinidadian strategy 00 the other hand, featured Uberal externaUy-oriented growth poUctes, and close relatjoos with Western governments and financial institutions. Th1s study attempts to identify the explanatory factors that account for the apparent dlssimUarUy 1n the foreign economic policies of these two govemnents. The study is based on a comparison of how the structural bases of an underdeveloped ecooomYg and the foreign penetration and vulnerabUUy to external pressures asSOCiated wUh dependence, shape and influence foreign economic poUcy strategy. The framework views fore1gn ecooom1c strategy as an adaptive response on the part of the decision makers of a state to the coostralnts and opportunities provided by a particular situation. The · situat i 00' in this case being the events, conditions, structures and processes, associated wUh dependente and underdevelopment. The results indicate that the similarities and dissimHarities in the foreign economic policies of the governments of Jamaica and Trinidad were a reflecUon of the simHarities and dissimilarities in their respective situations. The conclusion derived suggests that If the foreign pol1cy field as an arena of choice, Is indeed one of opportunities and constraints for each and every state, then poHcy makers of smaU, weak, hlghW penetrated and vulnerable states enter thlS arena with constraints outweighing opportunities. This places effective limits 00 their decisional latitude and the range of policy options avaUable. Policy makers thus have to decide critical issues with few estabUshed precedents, in the face of domestic social and political cleavages, as wen as serious foreign pressures. This is a reflection not only of the trappings of dependence, but also of the Umned capabilities arising from the sman size of the state, and the Impact of the resource-gap In an underdeveloped economy. The Trinidadian strategy 1s UlustraUve of a development strategy made viable through a combination of a fortuitous circumstance, a confluence of the interests of influential groups» and accurate perception on the part of poUcy makers. These factors enabled policy makers to minimise some of the constraints of dependence. The faUure of Manlets strategy on the other hand, 15 iHustraUve of the problems involved tn the adoption of poUcles that work against the interest of internal and external political and economic forces. It is also tUustraUve of the consequences of the faUure 00 the part of policy makers to clarify goals, and to reconcile the values of rapid economic growth with increased self-reliance and national autonomy. These values tend to be mutuany Incompatible given the existing patterns of relations in the jnternational economy.

Scales, networks and uncertainty : an examination of environmental policy-making in Ontario

Through a case-study analysis of Ontario's ethanol policy, this thesis addresses a number of themes that are consequential to policy and policy-making: spatiality, democracy and uncertainty. First, I address the 'spatial debate' in Geography pertaining to the relevance and affordances of a 'scalar' versus a 'flat' ontoepistemology. I argue that policy is guided by prior arrangements, but is by no means inevitable or predetermined. As such, scale and network are pragmatic geographical concepts that can effectively address the issue of the spatiality of policy and policy-making. Second, I discuss the democratic nature of policy-making in Ontario through an examination of the spaces of engagement that facilitate deliberative democracy. I analyze to what extent these spaces fit into Ontario's environmental policy-making process, and to what extent they were used by various stakeholders. Last, I take seriously the fact that uncertainty and unavoidable injustice are central to policy, and examine the ways in which this uncertainty shaped the specifics of Ontario's ethanol policy. Ultimately, this thesis is an exercise in understanding sub-national environmental policy-making in Canada, with an emphasis on how policy-makers tackle the issues they are faced with in the context of environmental change, political-economic integration, local priorities, individual goals, and irreducible uncertainty.

Allergies and asthma: employing principles of social justice as a guide in public health policy development

This article is an excellent example of applied ethics in public health policy development.

Allergies And Asthma : Employing Principles Of Social Justice As A Guide In Public Health Policy Development

The growing epidemic of allergy and allergy-induced asthma poses a significant challenge to population health. This article, written for a target audience of policy-makers in public health, aims to contribute to the development of policies to counter allergy morbidities by demonstrating how principles of social justice can guide public health initiatives in reducing allergy and asthma triggers. Following a discussion of why theories of social justice have utility in analyzing allergy, a step-wise policy assessment protocol formulated on Rawlsian principles of social justice is presented. This protocol can serve as a tool to aid in prioritizing public health initiatives and identifying ethically problematic policies that necessitate reform. Criteria for policy assessment include: 1) whether a tentative public health intervention would provide equal health benefit to a range of allergy and asthma sufferers, 2) whether targeting initiatives towards particu- lar societal groups is merited based on the notion of ‘worst-off status’ of certain population segments, and 3) whether targeted policies have the potential for stigmatization. The article concludes by analyzing three examples of policies used in reducing allergy and asthma triggers in order to convey the general thought process underlying the use of the assessment protocol, which public health officials could replicate as a guide in actual, region-specific policy development.

Managing Antimicrobial Resistance In Food Production : Conflicts Of Interest And Politics In The Development Of Public Health Policy

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing public health concern and is associated with the over or inappropriate use of antimicrobials in both humans and agriculture. While there has been recognition of this problem on the part of agricultural and public health authorities, there has nonetheless been significant difficulty in translating policy recommendations into practical guidelines. In this paper, we examine the process of public health policy development in Quebec agriculture, with a focus on the case of pork production and the role of food animal veterinarians in policy making. We argue that a tendency to employ strictly techno-scientific risk analyses of antimicrobial use ignores the fundamental social, economic and political realities of key stakeholders and so limits the applicability of policy recommendations developed by government advisory groups. In particular, we suggest that veterinarians’ personal and professional interests, and their ethical norms of practice, are key factors to both the problem of and the solution to the current over-reliance on antimicrobials in food production.

Barriers of evidence based policy making in iran's health system

La formation des sociétés fondées sur la connaissance, le progrès de la technologie de communications et un meilleur échange d'informations au niveau mondial permet une meilleure utilisation des connaissances produites lors des décisions prises dans le système de santé. Dans des pays en voie de développement, quelques études sont menées sur des obstacles qui empêchent la prise des décisions fondées sur des preuves (PDFDP) alors que des études similaires dans le monde développé sont vraiment rares. L'Iran est le pays qui a connu la plus forte croissance dans les publications scientifiques au cours de ces dernières années, mais la question qui se pose est la suivante : quels sont les obstacles qui empêchent l'utilisation de ces connaissances de même que celle des données mondiales? Cette étude embrasse trois articles consécutifs. Le but du premier article a été de trouver un modèle pour évaluer l'état de l'utilisation des connaissances dans ces circonstances en Iran à l’aide d'un examen vaste et systématique des sources suivie par une étude qualitative basée sur la méthode de la Grounded Theory. Ensuite au cours du deuxième et troisième article, les obstacles aux décisions fondées sur des preuves en Iran, sont étudiés en interrogeant les directeurs, les décideurs du secteur de la santé et les chercheurs qui travaillent à produire des preuves scientifiques pour la PDFDP en Iran. Après avoir examiné les modèles disponibles existants et la réalisation d'une étude qualitative, le premier article est sorti sous le titre de «Conception d'un modèle d'application des connaissances». Ce premier article sert de cadre pour les deux autres articles qui évaluent les obstacles à «pull» et «push» pour des PDFDP dans le pays. En Iran, en tant que pays en développement, les problèmes se situent dans toutes les étapes du processus de production, de partage et d’utilisation de la preuve dans la prise de décision du système de santé. Les obstacles qui existent à la prise de décision fondée sur des preuves sont divers et cela aux différents niveaux; les solutions multi-dimensionnelles sont nécessaires pour renforcer l'impact de preuves scientifiques sur les prises de décision. Ces solutions devraient entraîner des changements dans la culture et le milieu de la prise de décision afin de valoriser la prise de décisions fondées sur des preuves. Les critères de sélection des gestionnaires et leur nomination inappropriée ainsi que leurs remplaçants rapides et les différences de paiement dans les secteurs public et privé peuvent affaiblir la PDFDP de deux façons : d’une part en influant sur la motivation des décideurs et d'autre part en détruisant la continuité du programme. De même, tandis que la sélection et le remplacement des chercheurs n'est pas comme ceux des gestionnaires, il n'y a aucun critère pour encourager ces deux groupes à soutenir le processus décisionnel fondés sur des preuves dans le secteur de la santé et les changements ultérieurs. La sélection et la promotion des décideurs politiques devraient être basées sur leur performance en matière de la PDFDP et les efforts des universitaires doivent être comptés lors de leurs promotions personnelles et celles du rang de leur institution. Les attitudes et les capacités des décideurs et des chercheurs devraient être encouragés en leur donnant assez de pouvoir et d’habiliter dans les différentes étapes du cycle de décision. Cette étude a révélé que les gestionnaires n'ont pas suffisamment accès à la fois aux preuves nationales et internationales. Réduire l’écart qui sépare les chercheurs des décideurs est une étape cruciale qui doit être réalisée en favorisant la communication réciproque. Cette question est très importante étant donné que l'utilisation des connaissances ne peut être renforcée que par l'étroite collaboration entre les décideurs politiques et le secteur de la recherche. Dans ce but des programmes à long terme doivent être conçus ; la création des réseaux de chercheurs et de décideurs pour le choix du sujet de recherche, le classement des priorités, et le fait de renforcer la confiance réciproque entre les chercheurs et les décideurs politiques semblent être efficace.

The Construction of a State Peace Policy and the Process of Conflict Resolution

The academic literature specialized on processes of conflict resolution has focused on how third party intervention and mediation can contribute to end violent conflict, however it has also ignored the potential role of the state in countries affected by internal war. This article calls for a better understanding of the state, not only as a source of contemporary conflict but as a potential advocate of conflict resolution processes. It suggests that it is necessary and possible to involve the state in more effective processes of conflict resolution through the implementation of a State Peace Policy. The central argument is that some of the critical elements that should guide the state action when confronting the destructive logic of war and violence can be effectively undertaken through a public policy focused on building peace. After suggesting a general definition of State Peace Policy and highlighting some of its main attributes, the article recognizes that this sort of policy can also orientate the unfinished process of state consolidation in Colombia and other countries affected by internal conflict. The role of the state in the process of conflict resolution is crucial; however there are some issues normally ignored within the policy-making process, they must be seriously taken into account in order to eliminate the underlying structures that perpetuate conflict and delay the consolidation of sustainable peace.-----La literatura académica especializada en procesos de resolución de conflictos se ha centrado en el estudio de cómo la intervención de terceras partes y la labor de mediación pueden contribuir a poner fin a los conflictos violentos, sin embargo, también ha ignorado el rol potencial del estado en aquellos países afectados por la guerra interna. Este artículo llama la atención sobre la necesidad de estudiar al estado no sólo como la fuente de los conflictos contemporáneos, sino como un colaborador potencial en procesos de resolución de conflictos. Se sugiere que es necesario y también posible involucrar al estado en este tipo de procesos de una manera más efectiva a través de la implementación de una Política de Estado centrada en la Paz. El argumento central es que algunos de los elementos claves que deben guiar la acción del estado cuando éste se enfrenta a la lógica destructiva de la guerra y la violencia, pueden ser efectivamente tratados a través de una política pública que de prioridad a la construcción de la paz. Luego de sugerir una definición general y destacar algunos de los principales atributos de ésta clase de Política de Estado, el artículo reconoce que ésta podría también orientar el proceso inacabado de consolidación del estado en Colombia y en otros países afectados por conflictos internos. El rol del estado en el proceso para resolver los conflictos es crucial, sin embargo hay algunos aspectos normalmente ignorados durante el proceso de formulación de políticas que deben ser tomados en cuenta seriamente para eliminar las estructuras que perpetúan el conflicto y que retrasan la consolidación de la paz sostenible.

On the effectiveness and legitimacy of EU economic policies. Bruegel Policy Brief 2012/04, 9 November 2012

For markets, European economic governance faces a crisis of policy effectiveness, while for citizens the European Union faces a democratic legitimacy crisis. The introduction of the European Semester economic policy surveillance system has not resolved these problems. Policy guidance deriving from the Semester is not focused enough on areas of significant spillovers and on problem countries, and national compliance is often procedural rather than actual. This brings into question both the Semester’s effectiveness and the democratic legitimacy of the EU’s new intervention rights, which allow intrusion into national policy-making.

Conceptual development of a harmonised method for tracking change and evaluating policy in the agri-environment: The Agri-environmental Footprint Index

An aggregated farm-level index, the Agri-environmental Footprint Index (AFI), based on multiple criteria methods and representing a harmonised approach to evaluation of EU agri-environmental schemes is described. The index uses a common framework for the design and evaluation of policy that can be customised to locally relevant agri-environmental issues and circumstances. Evaluation can be strictly policy-focused, or broader and more holistic in that context-relevant assessment criteria that are not necessarily considered in the evaluated policy can nevertheless be incorporated. The Index structure is flexible, and can respond to diverse local needs. The process of Index construction is interactive, engaging farmers and other relevant stakeholders in a transparent decision-making process that can ensure acceptance of the outcome, help to forge an improved understanding of local agri-environmental priorities and potentially increase awareness of the critical role of farmers in environmental management. The structure of the AFI facilitates post-evaluation analysis of relative performance in different dimensions of the agri-environment, permitting identification of current strengths and weaknesses, and enabling future improvement in policy design. Quantification of the environmental impact of agriculture beyond the stated aims of policy using an 'unweighted' form of the AFI has potential as the basis of an ongoing system of environmental audit within a specified agricultural context. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Curriculum theory, curriculum policy and the problem of ill-disciplined thinking

This paper examines the implications of policy fracture and arms length governance within the decision making processes currently shaping curriculum design within the English education system. In particular it argues that an unresolved ‘ideological fracture’ at government level has been passed down to school leaders whose response to the dilemma is distorted by the target-driven agenda of arms length agencies. Drawing upon the findings of a large scale on-line survey of history teaching in English secondary schools, this paper illustrates the problems that occur when policy making is divorced from curriculum theory, and in particular from any consideration of the nature of knowledge. Drawing on the social realist theory of knowledge elaborated by Young (2008), we argue that the rapid spread of alternative curricular arrangements, implemented in the absence of an understanding of curriculum theory, undermines the value of disciplined thinking to the detriment of many young people, particularly those in areas of social and economic deprivation.

Policy interventions to promote healthy eating: a review of what works, what does not and what is promising

Unhealthy diets can lead to various diseases, which in turn can translate into a bigger burden for the state in the form of health services and lost production. Obesity alone has enormous costs and claims thousands of lives every year. Although diet quality in the European Union has improved across countries, it still falls well short of conformity with the World Health Organization dietary guidelines. In this review, we classify types of policy interventions addressing healthy eating and identify through a literature review what specific policy interventions are better suited to improve diets. Policy interventions are classified into two broad categories: information measures and measures targeting the market environment. Using this classification, we summarize a number of previous systematic reviews, academic papers, and institutional reports and draw some conclusions about their effectiveness. Of the information measures, policy interventions aimed at reducing or banning unhealthy food advertisements generally have had a weak positive effect on improving diets, while public information campaigns have been successful in raising awareness of unhealthy eating but have failed to translate the message into action. Nutritional labeling allows for informed choice. However, informed choice is not necessarily healthier; knowing or being able to read and interpret nutritional labeling on food purchased does not necessarily result in consumption of healthier foods. Interventions targeting the market environment, such as fiscal measures and nutrient, food, and diet standards, are rarer and generally more effective, though more intrusive. Overall, we conclude that measures to support informed choice have a mixed and limited record of success. On the other hand, measures to target the market environment are more intrusive but may be more effective.

The role of agronomic research in climate change and food security policy

Societal concern is growing about the consequences of climate change for food systems and, in a number of regions, for food security. There is also concern that meeting the rising demand for food is leading to environmental degradation thereby exacerbating factors in part responsible for climate change, and further undermining the food systems upon which food security is based. A major emphasis of climate change/food security research over recent years has addressed the agronomic aspects of climate change, and particularly crop yield. This has provided an excellent foundation for assessments of how climate change may affect crop productivity, but the connectivity between these results and the broader issues of food security at large are relatively poorly explored; too often discussions of food security policy appear to be based on a relatively narrow agronomic perspective. To overcome the limitation of current agronomic research outputs there are several scientific challenges where further agronomic effort is necessary, and where agronomic research results can effectively contribute to the broader issues underlying food security. First is the need to better understand how climate change will affect cropping systems including both direct effects on the crops themselves and indirect effects as a result of changed pest and weed dynamics and altered soil and water conditions. Second is the need to assess technical and policy options for either reducing the deleterious impacts or enhancing the benefits of climate change on cropping systems while minimising further environmental degradation. Third is the need to understand how best to address the information needs of policy makers and report and communicate agronomic research results in a manner that will assist the development of food systems adapted to climate change. There are, however, two important considerations regarding these agronomic research contributions to the food security/climate change debate. The first concerns scale. Agronomic research has traditionally been conducted at plot scale over a growing season or perhaps a few years, but many of the issues related to food security operate at larger spatial and temporal scales. Over the last decade, agronomists have begun to establish trials at landscape scale, but there are a number of methodological challenges to be overcome at such scales. The second concerns the position of crop production (which is a primary focus of agronomic research) in the broader context of food security. Production is clearly important, but food distribution and exchange also determine food availability while access to food and food utilisation are other important components of food security. Therefore, while agronomic research alone cannot address all food security/climate change issues (and hence the balance of investment in research and development for crop production vis à vis other aspects of food security needs to be assessed), it will nevertheless continue to have an important role to play: it both improves understanding of the impacts of climate change on crop production and helps to develop adaptation options; and also – and crucially – it improves understanding of the consequences of different adaptation options on further climate forcing. This role can further be strengthened if agronomists work alongside other scientists to develop adaptation options that are not only effective in terms of crop production, but are also environmentally and economically robust, at landscape and regional scales. Furthermore, such integrated approaches to adaptation research are much more likely to address the information need of policy makers. The potential for stronger linkages between the results of agronomic research in the context of climate change and the policy environment will thus be enhanced.