Forecasting electricity load demand: analysis of the 2001 rationing period in Brazil

This paper studies the electricity load demand behavior during the 2001 rationing period, which was implemented because of the Brazilian energetic crisis. The hourly data refers to a utility situated in the southeast of the country. We use the model proposed by Soares and Souza (2003), making use of generalized long memory to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The rationing period is shown to have imposed a structural break in the series, decreasing the load at about 20%. Even so, the forecast accuracy is decreased only marginally, and the forecasts rapidly readapt to the new situation. The forecast errors from this model also permit verifying the public response to pieces of information released regarding the crisis.

How to indirectly assess transaction costs to evaluate market integration: evidence from the international ethanol market

Mercados são instituições criadas para facilitar uma atividade de comercialização. Isto é possível porque um mercado é constituído por instituições que foram desenhadas para reduzir os custos de transação associados a este processo de troca. A partir dessas duas ideias, esta tese possui três objetivos principais. (i) Analisar por que a literatura de análise de cointegração tem mensurado estes custos de forma imprecisa. A principal razão é certa confusão entre os conceitos de custos de transação, de transporte e de comercialização. (ii) Propor um procedimento para mensurar indiretamente os custos de transação de mercado variáveis combinando os modelos de cointegração com mudança de regime e a estrutura teórica oferecidas pela Nova Economia Institucional. Este procedimento é aplicado para quantificar quanto custa comercializar etanol no mercado internacional usando suas atuais instituições. (iii) Por fim, usando os mesmos modelos e a mesma estrutura teórica, esta dissertação contesta a hipótese de que já existe um mercado internacional de etanol bem desenvolvido, tal qual a literatura tem assumido. De forma semelhante, também é avaliada a hipótese de que a remoção das barreiras comerciais norte-americanas para o etanol brasileiro seria uma condição suficiente para o desenvolvimento deste mercado internacional. Os testes aplicados rejeitam ambas as hipóteses.

International integration and long- run persistence of the GNP distribution

We use the Ramsey model of g,Towth elaborated by Bliss [1995] and Ventlira [1997] to show how international integration results in long-nm persistellce Df GNPs distribution, while allowing, under certain conditions on parameters, for convergellce during the transition. First, we pi·ovide relationships which explicitly relate, in the neighborhood of the steady-state, the magnitude of conditional convergence or divergence to the fundamentaIs of the economies. Second, we present ali analysis of the Cobb Douglas case with a broad dass of utility functions and show that there is always transitional convergenee with this technology. Third, directions for testing the Illodel against the traditional dosed-ecollomy setting are proposed. These lead to adding specific and world-wide regTessors to traditional growth regressions.

The Panama canal expansion mega project : a case study and stakeholder´s analysis

As globalization increases integration, a new playing field is emerging which is driving the need for operational efficiencies and alignment of complementary capabilities among countries to build sustainable models and integrated offerings. As demands increase, companies are turning to effective project management as means to control operations and countries are increasing the amount of mega projects to boost their competitiveness and global footprint. Given the scale, complexity, political nature, multicultural makeup, and high level of visibility; mega projects rely on successful stakeholder management to effectively manage its operational, tactical, and strategic levels to execute their mission. This paper examines the success drivers of mega projects and presents an in depth stakeholder assessment of the Panama Canal Expansion mega project to identify the perceived value to its stakeholder community. The stakeholder categories include: the Panama Canal Authority, subcontractors executing the expansion project, customers of the canal in Panama and U.S., as well as the communities surrounding the Panama Canal and ports in the U.S. East Coast. The conclusion of this paper captures the relationship between the effective stakeholder engagement from the Panama Canal Authority, the perceived value of the Panamanian stakeholders, and compares it to U.S. based mega projects being executed simultaneously to allow the U.S. East Coast ports to accommodate increased cargo volumes.

Combined cycle versus one thousand diesel power plants: pollutant emissions, ecological efficiency and economic analysis

The increase in the use of natural gas in Brazil has stimulated public and private sectors to analyse the possibility of using combined cycle systems for generation of electrical energy. Gas turbine combined cycle power plants are becoming increasingly common due to their high efficiency, short lead times, and ability to meet environmental standards. Power is produced in a generator linked directly to the gas turbine. The gas turbine exhaust gases are sent to a heat recovery steam generator to produce superheated steam that can be used in a steam turbine to produce additional power. In this paper a comparative study between a 1000 MW combined cycle power plant and 1000 kW diesel power plant is presented. In first step, the energetic situation in Brazil, the needs of the electric sector modification and the needs of demand management and integrated means planning are clarified. In another step the characteristics of large and small thermoelectric power plants that use natural gas and diesel fuel, respectively, are presented. The ecological efficiency levels of each type of power plant is considered in the discussion, presenting the emissions of particulate material, sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration and trade diversion

Includes bibliography

European integration and Latin American trade

Includes bibliography

An integrated GIS for sedimentological and geomorphological analysis of a lagoon environment. Barra de Cananeia inlet region, (Southeastern Brazil)

The aim of this work is to use GIS integration data to characterize sedimentary processes in a SubTropical lagoon environment. The study area was the Canan,ia Inlet estuary in the southeastern section of the Canan,ia Lagoon Estuarine System (CLES), state of So Paulo, Brazil (25A degrees 03'S/47A degrees 53'W). The area is formed by the confluence of two estuarine channels forming a bay-shaped water body locally called "Trapand, Bay". The region is surrounded by one of the most preserved tracts of Atlantic Rain Forest in Southwestern Brazil and presents well-developed mangroves and marshes. In this study a methodology was developed using integrated a GIS database based on bottom sediment parameters, geomorphological data, remote sensing images, Hidrodynamical Modeling data and geophysical parameters. The sediment grain size parameters and the bottom morphology of the lagoon were also used to develop models of net sediment transport pathways. It was possible to observe that the sediment transport vectors based on the grain size model had a good correlation with the transport model based on the bottom topography features and Hydrodynamic model, especially in areas with stronger energetic conditions, with a minor contribution of finer sediments. This relation is somewhat less evident near shallower banks and depositional features. In these regions the organic matter contents in the sediments was a good complementary tool for inferring the hydrodynamic and depositional conditions (i.e. primary productivity, sedimentation rates, sources, oxi-reduction rates).

Improved ground motion intensity measures for reliability-based demand analysis of structures

In Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), evaluating the seismic performance (or seismic risk) of a structure at a designed site has gained major attention, especially in the past decade. One of the objectives in PBEE is to quantify the seismic reliability of a structure (due to the future random earthquakes) at a site. For that purpose, Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) is utilized as a tool to estimate the Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of exceeding a specified value of a structural Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP). This dissertation focuses mainly on applying an average of a certain number of spectral acceleration ordinates in a certain interval of periods, Sa,avg (T1,…,Tn), as scalar ground motion Intensity Measure (IM) when assessing the seismic performance of inelastic structures. Since the interval of periods where computing Sa,avg is related to the more or less influence of higher vibration modes on the inelastic response, it is appropriate to speak about improved IMs. The results using these improved IMs are compared with a conventional elastic-based scalar IMs (e.g., pseudo spectral acceleration, Sa ( T(¹)), or peak ground acceleration, PGA) and the advanced inelastic-based scalar IM (i.e., inelastic spectral displacement, Sdi). The advantages of applying improved IMs are: (i ) "computability" of the seismic hazard according to traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), because ground motion prediction models are already available for Sa (Ti), and hence it is possibile to employ existing models to assess hazard in terms of Sa,avg, and (ii ) "efficiency" or smaller variability of structural response, which was minimized to assess the optimal range to compute Sa,avg. More work is needed to assess also "sufficiency" and "scaling robustness" desirable properties, which are disregarded in this dissertation. However, for ordinary records (i.e., with no pulse like effects), using the improved IMs is found to be more accurate than using the elastic- and inelastic-based IMs. For structural demands that are dominated by the first mode of vibration, using Sa,avg can be negligible relative to the conventionally-used Sa (T(¹)) and the advanced Sdi. For structural demands with sign.cant higher-mode contribution, an improved scalar IM that incorporates higher modes needs to be utilized. In order to fully understand the influence of the IM on the seismis risk, a simplified closed-form expression for the probability of exceeding a limit state capacity was chosen as a reliability measure under seismic excitations and implemented for Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame structures. This closed-form expression is partuclarly useful for seismic assessment and design of structures, taking into account the uncertainty in the generic variables, structural "demand" and "capacity" as well as the uncertainty in seismic excitations. The assumed framework employs nonlinear Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedures in order to estimate variability in the response of the structure (demand) to seismic excitations, conditioned to IM. The estimation of the seismic risk using the simplified closed-form expression is affected by IM, because the final seismic risk is not constant, but with the same order of magnitude. Possible reasons concern the non-linear model assumed, or the insufficiency of the selected IM. Since it is impossibile to state what is the "real" probability of exceeding a limit state looking the total risk, the only way is represented by the optimization of the desirable properties of an IM.

Bioactive and toxic compounds in different foodstuffs: analytical techniques and sensory analysis

Foods that provide medical and health benefits or have a role in disease risk prevention are termed functional foods. The functionality of functional foods is derived from bioactive compounds that are extranutritional constituents present in small quantities in food. Bioactive components include a range of chemical compounds with varying structures such as carotenoids, flavonoids, plant sterols, omega-3 fatty acids (n-3), allyl and diallyl sulfides, indoles (benzopyrroles), and phenolic acids. The increasing consumer interest in natural bioactive compounds has brought about a rise in demand for these kinds of compounds and, in parallel, an increasing number of scientific studies have this type of substance as main topic. The principal aim of this PhD research project was the study of different bioactive and toxic compounds in several natural matrices. To achieve this goal, chromatographic, spectroscopic and sensorial analysis were performed. This manuscript reports the main results obtained in the six activities briefly summarized as follows: • SECTION I: the influence of conventional packaging on lipid oxidation of pasta was evaluated in egg spaghetti. • SECTION II: the effect of the storage at different temperatures of virgin olive oil was monitored by peroxide value, fatty acid activity, OSI test and sensory analysis. • SECTION III: the glucosinolate and phenolic content of 37 rocket salad accessions were evaluated, comparing Eruca sativa and Diplotaxis tenuifolia species. Sensory analysis and the influence of the phenolic and glucosinolate composition on sensory attributes of rocket salads has been also studied. • SECTION IV: ten buckwheat honeys were characterised on the basis of their pollen, physicochemical, phenolic and volatile composition. • SECTION V: the polyphenolic fraction, anthocyanins and other polar compounds, the antioxidant capacity and the anty-hyperlipemic action of the aqueous extract of Hibiscus sabdariffa were achieved. • SECTION VI: the optimization of a normal phase high pressure liquid chromatography–fluorescence detection method for the quantitation of flavanols and procyanidins in cocoa powder and chocolate samples was performed.

Dynamic thermal performance of building components and application to the experimental and theoretical analysis of a ventilated façade

The general aim of this work is to contribute to the energy performance assessment of ventilated façades by the simultaneous use of experimental data and numerical simulations. A significant amount of experimental work was done on different types of ventilated façades with natural ventilation. The measurements were taken on a test building. The external walls of this tower are rainscreen ventilated façades. Ventilation grills are located at the top and at the bottom of the tower. In this work the modelling of the test building using a dynamic thermal simulation program (ESP-r) is presented and the main results discussed. In order to investigate the best summer thermal performance of rainscreen ventilated skin façade a study for different setups of rainscreen walls was made. In particular, influences of ventilation grills, air cavity thickness, skin colour, skin material, orientation of façade were investigated. It is shown that some types of rainscreen ventilated façade typologies are capable of lowering the cooling energy demand of a few percent points.

The abuse of intellectual property rights and regulations in China: a law and economic analysis

From the institutional point of view, the legal system of IPR (intellectual property right, hereafter, IPR) is one of incentive institutions of innovation and it plays very important role in the development of economy. According to the law, the owner of the IPR enjoy a kind of exclusive right to use his IP(intellectual property, hereafter, IP), in other words, he enjoys a kind of legal monopoly position in the market. How to well protect the IPR and at the same time to regulate the abuse of IPR is very interested topic in this knowledge-orientated market and it is the basic research question in this dissertation. In this paper, by way of comparing study and by way of law and economic analyses, and based on the Austrian Economics School’s theories, the writer claims that there is no any contradiction between the IPR and competition law. However, in this new economy (high-technology industries), there is really probability of the owner of IPR to abuse his dominant position. And with the characteristics of the new economy, such as, the high rates of innovation, “instant scalability”, network externality and lock-in effects, the IPR “will vest the dominant undertakings with the power not just to monopolize the market but to shift such power from one market to another, to create strong barriers to enter and, in so doing, granting the perpetuation of such dominance for quite a long time.”1 Therefore, in order to keep the order of market, to vitalize the competition and innovation, and to benefit the customer, in EU and US, it is common ways to apply the competition law to regulate the IPR abuse. In Austrian Economic School perspective, especially the Schumpeterian theories, the innovation/competition/monopoly and entrepreneurship are inter-correlated, therefore, we should apply the dynamic antitrust model based on the AES theories to analysis the relationship between the IPR and competition law. China is still a developing country with relative not so high ability of innovation. Therefore, at present, to protect the IPR and to make good use of the incentive mechanism of IPR legal system is the first important task for Chinese government to do. However, according to the investigation reports,2 based on their IPR advantage and capital advantage, some multinational companies really obtained the dominant or monopoly market position in some aspects of some industries, and there are some IPR abuses conducted by such multinational companies. And then, the Chinese government should be paying close attention to regulate any IPR abuse. However, how to effectively regulate the IPR abuse by way of competition law in Chinese situation, from the law and economic theories’ perspective, from the legislation perspective, and from the judicial practice perspective, there is a long way for China to go!

The Effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism – A law and economics analysis

Climate change has been acknowledged as a threat to humanity. Most scholars agree that to avert dangerous climate change and to transform economies into low-carbon societies, deep global emission reductions are required by the year 2050. Under the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the only market-based instrument that encourages industrialised countries to pursue emission reductions in developing countries. The CDM aims to pay the incremental finance necessary to operationalize emission reduction projects which are otherwise not financially viable. According to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM should finance projects that are additional to those which would have happened anyway, contribute to sustainable development in the countries hosting the projects, and be cost-effective. To enable the identification of such projects, an institutional framework has been established by the Kyoto Protocol which lays out responsibilities for public and private actors. This thesis examines whether the CDM has achieved these objectives in practice and can thus be considered an effective tool to reduce emissions. To complete this investigation, the book applies economic theory and analyses the CDM from two perspectives. The first perspective is the supply-dimension which answers the question of how, in practice, the CDM system identified additional, cost-effective, sustainable projects and, generated emission reductions. The main contribution of this book is the second perspective, the compliance-dimension, which answers the question of whether industrialised countries effectively used the CDM for compliance with their Kyoto targets. The application of the CDM in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is used as a case-study. Where the analysis identifies inefficiencies within the supply or the compliance dimension, potential improvements of the legal framework are proposed and discussed.

Functional polymer coatings — My-Patterning and My-Analysis

In dieser Arbeit werden Strukturen beschrieben, die mit Polymeren auf Oberflächen erzeugt wurden. Die Anwendungen reichen von PMMA und PNIPAM Polymerbürsten, über die Restrukturierung von Polystyrol durch Lösemittel bis zu 3D-Strukturen, die aus PAH/ PSS Polyelektrolytmultischichten bestehen. Im ersten Teil werden Polymethylmethacrylat (PMMA) Bürsten in der ionischen Flüssigkeit 1-Butyl-3-Methylimidazolium Hexafluorophospat ([Bmim][PF6]) durch kontrollierte radikalische Polymerisation (ATRP) hergestellt. Kinetische Untersuchungen zeigten ein lineares und dichtes Bürstenwachstum mit einer Wachstumsrate von 4600 g/mol pro nm. Die durchschnittliche Pfropfdichte betrug 0.36 µmol/m2. Als Anwendung wurden Mikrotropfen bestehend aus der ionischen Flüssigkeit, Dimethylformamid und dem ATRP-Katalysator benutzt, um in einer definierten Geometrie Polymerbürsten auf Silizium aufzubringen. Auf diese Weise lässt sich eine bis zu 13 nm dicke Beschichtung erzeugen. Dieses Konzept ist durch die Verdampfung des Monomers Methylmethacrylat (MMA) limitiert. Aus einem 1 µl großen Tropfen aus ionischer Flüssigkeit und MMA (1:1) verdampft MMA innerhalb von 100 s. Daher wurde das Monomer sequentiell zugegeben. Der zweite Teil konzentriert sich auf die Strukturierung von Oberflächen mit Hilfe einer neuen Methode: Tintendruck. Ein piezoelektrisch betriebenes „Drop-on-Demand“ Drucksystem wurde verwendet, um Polystyrol mit 0,4 nl Tropfen aus Toluol zu strukturieren. Die auf diese Art und Weise gebildeten Mikrokrater können Anwendung als Mikrolinsen finden. Die Brennweite der Mikrolinsen kann über die Anzahl an Tropfen, die für die Strukturierung verwendet werden, eingestellt werden. Theoretisch und experimentell wurde die Brennweite im Bereich von 4,5 mm bis 0,21 mm ermittelt. Der zweite Strukturierungsprozess nutzt die Polyelektrolyte Polyvinylamin-Hydrochlorid (PAH) und Polystyrolsulfonat (PSS), um 3D-Strukturen wie z.B. Linien, Schachbretter, Ringe, Stapel mit einer Schicht für Schicht Methode herzustellen. Die Schichtdicke für eine Doppelschicht (DS) liegt im Bereich von 0.6 bis 1.1 nm, wenn NaCl als Elektrolyt mit einer Konzentration von 0,5 mol/l eingesetzt wird. Die Breite der Strukturen beträgt im Mittel 230 µm. Der Prozess wurde erweitert, um Nanomechanische Cantilever Sensoren (NCS) zu beschichten. Auf einem Array bestehend aus acht Cantilevern wurden je zwei Cantilever mit fünf Doppelschichten PAH/ PSS und je zwei Cantilever mit zehn Doppelschichten PAH/ PSS schnell und reproduzierbar beschichtet. Die Massenänderung für die individuellen Cantilever war 0,55 ng für fünf Doppelschichten und 1,08 ng für zehn Doppelschichten. Der daraus resultierende Sensor wurde einer Umgebung mit definierter Luftfeuchtigkeit ausgesetzt. Die Cantilever verbiegen sich durch die Ausdehnung der Beschichtung, da Wasser in das Polymer diffundiert. Eine maximale Verbiegung von 442 nm bei 80% Luftfeuchtigkeit wurde für die mit zehn Doppelschichten beschichteten Cantilever gefunden. Dies entspricht einer Wasseraufnahme von 35%. Zusätzlich konnte aus den Verbiegungsdaten geschlossen werden, dass die Elastizität der Polyelektrolytmultischichten zunimmt, wenn das Polymer gequollen ist. Das thermische Verhalten in Wasser wurde im nächsten Teil an nanomechanischen Cantilever Sensoren, die mit Poly(N-isopropylacrylamid)bürsten (PNIPAM) und plasmapolymerisiertem N,N-Diethylacrylamid beschichtet waren, untersucht. Die Verbiegung des Cantilevers zeigte zwei Bereiche: Bei Temperaturen kleiner der niedrigsten kritischen Temperatur (LCST) ist die Verbiegung durch die Dehydration der Polymerschicht dominiert und bei Temperaturen größer der niedrigsten kritischen Temperatur (LCST) reagiert der Cantilever Sensor überwiegend auf Relaxationsprozesse innerhalb der kollabierten Polymerschicht. Es wurde gefunden, dass das Minimum in der differentiellen Verbiegung mit der niedrigsten kritischen Temperatur von 32°C und 44°C der ausgewählten Polymeren übereinstimmt. Im letzten Teil der Arbeit wurden µ-Reflektivitäts- und µ-GISAXS Experimente eingeführt als neue Methoden, um mikrostrukturierte Proben wie NCS oder PEM Linien mit Röntgenstreuung zu untersuchen. Die Dicke von jedem individuell mit PMMA Bürsten beschichtetem NCS ist im Bereich von 32,9 bis 35,2 nm, was mit Hilfe von µ-Reflektivitätsmessungen bestimmt wurde. Dieses Ergebnis kann mit abbildender Ellipsometrie als komplementäre Methode mit einer maximalen Abweichung von 7% bestätigt werden. Als zweites Beispiel wurde eine gedruckte Polyelektrolytmultischicht aus PAH/PSS untersucht. Die Herstellungsprozedur wurde so modifiziert, dass Goldnanopartikel in die Schichtstruktur eingebracht wurden. Durch Auswertung eines µ-GISAXS Experiments konnte der Einbau der Partikel identifiziert werden. Durch eine Anpassung mit einem Unified Fit Modell wurde herausgefunden, dass die Partikel nicht agglomeriert sind und von einer Polymermatrix umgeben sind.

Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of micro-CHP Energy Systems

In the framework of the micro-CHP (Combined Heat and Power) energy systems and the Distributed Generation (GD) concept, an Integrated Energy System (IES) able to meet the energy and thermal requirements of specific users, using different types of fuel to feed several micro-CHP energy sources, with the integration of electric generators of renewable energy sources (RES), electrical and thermal storage systems and the control system was conceived and built. A 5 kWel Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) has been studied. Using experimental data obtained from various measurement campaign, the electrical and CHP PEMFC system performance have been determinate. The analysis of the effect of the water management of the anodic exhaust at variable FC loads has been carried out, and the purge process programming logic was optimized, leading also to the determination of the optimal flooding times by varying the AC FC power delivered by the cell. Furthermore, the degradation mechanisms of the PEMFC system, in particular due to the flooding of the anodic side, have been assessed using an algorithm that considers the FC like a black box, and it is able to determine the amount of not-reacted H2 and, therefore, the causes which produce that. Using experimental data that cover a two-year time span, the ageing suffered by the FC system has been tested and analyzed.