A diagnostic study of waves on the tropopause

The spatial structure and phase velocity of tropopause disturbances localized around the subpolar jet in the Southern Hemisphere are investigated using 6-hourly European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data covering 15 yr (1979–93). The phase velocity and phase structure of the tropopause disturbances are in good agreement with those of an edge wave vertically trapped at the tropopause. However, the vertical distribution of the ratio of potential to kinetic energy exhibits maxima above and below the tropopause and a minimum around the tropopause, in contradiction to edge wave theory for which the ratio is unity throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. This difference in vertical structure between the observed tropopause disturbances and edge wave theory is attributed to the effects of a finite-depth tropopause together with the next-order corrections in Rossby number to quasigeostrophic dynamics

Introductory remarks

The very first numerical models which were developed more than 20 years ago were drastic simplifications of the real atmosphere and they were mostly restricted to describe adiabatic processes. For prediction of a day or two of the mid tropospheric flow these models often gave reasonable results but the result deteriorated quickly when the prediction was extended further in time. The prediction of the surface flow was unsatisfactory even for short predictions. It was evident that both the energy generating processes as well as the dissipative processes have to be included in numerical models in order to predict the weather patterns in the lower part of the atmosphere and to predict the atmosphere in general beyond a day or two. Present-day computers make it possible to attack the weather forecasting problem in a more comprehensive and complete way and substantial efforts have been made during the last decade in particular to incorporate the non-adiabatic processes in numerical prediction models. The physics of radiational transfer, condensation of moisture, turbulent transfer of heat, momentum and moisture and the dissipation of kinetic energy are the most important processes associated with the formation of energy sources and sinks in the atmosphere and these have to be incorporated in numerical prediction models extended over more than a few days. The mechanisms of these processes are mainly related to small scale disturbances in space and time or even molecular processes. It is therefore one of the basic characteristics of numerical models that these small scale disturbances cannot be included in an explicit way. The reason for this is the discretization of the model's atmosphere by a finite difference grid or the use of a Galerkin or spectral function representation. The second reason why we cannot explicitly introduce these processes into a numerical model is due to the fact that some physical processes necessary to describe them (such as the local buoyance) are a priori eliminated by the constraints of hydrostatic adjustment. Even if this physical constraint can be relaxed by making the models non-hydrostatic the scale problem is virtually impossible to solve and for the foreseeable future we have to try to incorporate the ensemble or gross effect of these physical processes on the large scale synoptic flow. The formulation of the ensemble effect in terms of grid-scale variables (the parameters of the large-scale flow) is called 'parameterization'. For short range prediction of the synoptic flow at middle and high latitudes, very simple parameterization has proven to be rather successful.

Wind gust estimation for Mid-European winter storms: towards a probabilistic view

Three wind gust estimation (WGE) methods implemented in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO-CLM are evaluated with respect to their forecast quality using skill scores. Two methods estimate gusts locally from mean wind speed and the turbulence state of the atmosphere, while the third one considers the mixing-down of high momentum within the planetary boundary layer (WGE Brasseur). One hundred and fifty-eight windstorms from the last four decades are simulated and results are compared with gust observations at 37 stations in Germany. Skill scores reveal that the local WGE methods show an overall better behaviour, whilst WGE Brasseur performs less well except for mountain regions. The here introduced WGE turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) permits a probabilistic interpretation using statistical characteristics of gusts at observational sites for an assessment of uncertainty. The WGE TKE formulation has the advantage of a ‘native’ interpretation of wind gusts as result of local appearance of TKE. The inclusion of a probabilistic WGE TKE approach in NWP models has, thus, several advantages over other methods, as it has the potential for an estimation of uncertainties of gusts at observational sites.

On the nature of large-scale mixing in the stratosphere and mesosphere

Studies of tracer transport in the stratosphere have shown that adiabatic quasi-horizontal tracer evolution is controlled primarily by the large-scale low-frequency component of the flow. This behavior is consistent with the concept of chaotic advection, wherein the Eulerian velocity field is spatially coherent and temporally quasi-regular on timescales over which the Lagrangian evolution is chaotic. In this study, winds from a middle atmosphere general circulation model (the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) are used to compare and contrast the nature of tracer evolution in the stratosphere and mesosphere. It is found that the concept of chaotic advection is relevant in the stratosphere but not in the mesosphere. The explanation for this behavior is the increased strength of gravity wave activity in the mesosphere as compared with the stratosphere, which leads to shallower kinetic energy spectra on synoptic scales and a much shorter Eulerian correlation time. The shallower kinetic energy spectra imply that tracer evolution in the mesosphere is spectrally local, in contrast with the spectrally nonlocal regime that prevails in the stratosphere. This means that tracer advection calculations in the mesosphere are controlled primarily by the gravity wave spectrum and are intrinsically resolution dependent.

Crooks' fluctuation theorem for a process on a two dimensional fluid field

We investigate the behavior of a two-dimensional inviscid and incompressible flow when pushed out of dynamical equilibrium. We use the two-dimensional vorticity equation with spectral truncation on a rectangular domain. For a sufficiently large number of degrees of freedom, the equilibrium statistics of the flow can be described through a canonical ensemble with two conserved quantities, energy and enstrophy. To perturb the system out of equilibrium, we change the shape of the domain according to a protocol, which changes the kinetic energy but leaves the enstrophy constant. We interpret this as doing work to the system. Evolving along a forward and its corresponding backward process, we find numerical evidence that the distributions of the work performed satisfy the Crooks relation. We confirm our results by proving the Crooks relation for this system rigorously.

A spectral view of nonlinear fluxes and stationary-transient interaction in the atmosphere

Nonlinear spectral transfers of kinetic energy and enstrophy, and stationary-transient interaction, are studied using global FGGE data for January 1979. It is found that the spectral transfers arise primarily from a combination, in roughly equal measure, of pure transient and mixed stationary-transient interactions. The pure transient interactions are associated with a transient eddy field which is approximately locally homogeneous and isotropic, and they appear to be consistently understood within the context of two-dimensional homogeneous turbulence. Theory based on spatial wale separation concepts suggests that the mixed interactions may be understood physically, to a first approximation, as a process of shear-induced spectral transfer of transient enstrophy along lines of constant zonal wavenumber. This essentially conservative enstrophy transfer generally involves highly nonlocal stationary-transient energy conversions. The observational analysis demonstrates that the shear-induced transient enstrophy transfer is mainly associated with intermediate-scale (zonal wavenumber m > 3) transients and is primarily to smaller (meridional) scales, so that the transient flow acts as a source of stationary energy. In quantitative terms, this transient-eddy rectification corresponds to a forcing timescale in the stationary energy budget which is of the same order of magnitude as most estimates of the damping timescale in simple stationary-wave models (5 to 15 days). Moreover, the nonlinear interactions involved are highly nonlocal and cover a wide range of transient scales of motion.

Large-scale two-dimensional turbulence in the atmosphere

Global FGGE data are used to investigate several aspects of large-scale turbulence in the atmosphere. The approach follows that for two-dimensional, nondivergent turbulent flows which are homogeneous and isotropic on the sphere. Spectra of kinetic energy, enstrophy and available potential energy are obtained for both the stationary and transient parts of the flow. Nonlinear interaction terms and fluxes of energy and enstrophy through wavenumber space are calculated and compared with the theory. A possible method of parameterizing the interactions with unresolved scales is considered. Two rather different flow regimes are found in wavenumber space. The high-wavenumber regime is dominated by the transient components of the flow and exhibits, at least approximately, several of the conditions characterizing homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. This region of wavenumber space also displays some of the features of an enstrophy-cascading inertial subrange. The low-wavenumber region, on the other hand, is dominated by the stationary component of the flow, exhibits marked anisotropy and, in contrast to the high-wavenumber regime, displays a marked change between January and July.

Irreversible compressible work and APE dissipation in turbulent stratified fluid

Although it plays a key role in the theory of stratified turbulence, the concept of available potential energy (APE) dissipation has remained until now a rather mysterious quantity, owing to the lack of rigorous result about its irreversible character or energy conversion type. Here, we show by using rigorous energetics considerations rooted in the analysis of the Navier-Stokes for a fully compressible fluid with a nonlinear equation of state that the APE dissipation is an irreversible energy conversion that dissipates kinetic energy into internal energy, exactly as viscous dissipation. These results are established by showing that APE dissipation contributes to the irreversible production of entropy, and by showing that it is a part of the work of expansion/contraction. Our results provide a new interpretation of the entropy budget, that leads to a new exact definition of turbulent effective diffusivity, which generalizes the Osborn-Cox model, as well as a rigorous decomposition of the work of expansion/contraction into reversible and irreversible components. In the context of turbulent mixing associated with parallel shear flow instability, our results suggests that there is no irreversible transfer of horizontal momentum into vertical momentum, as seems to be required when compressible effects are neglected, with potential consequences for the parameterisations of momentum dissipation in the coarse-grained Navier-Stokes equations.

Thermodynamics/dynamics coupling in weakly compressible turbulent stratified fluids

In traditional and geophysical fluid dynamics, it is common to describe stratified turbulent fluid flows with low Mach number and small relative density variations by means of the incompressible Boussinesq approximation. Although such an approximation is often interpreted as decoupling the thermodynamics from the dynamics, this paper reviews recent results and derive new ones that show that the reality is actually more subtle and complex when diabatic effects and a nonlinear equation of state are retained. Such an analysis reveals indeed: (1) that the compressible work of expansion/contraction remains of comparable importance as the mechanical energy conversions in contrast to what is usually assumed; (2) in a Boussinesq fluid, compressible effects occur in the guise of changes in gravitational potential energy due to density changes. This makes it possible to construct a fully consistent description of the thermodynamics of incompressible fluids for an arbitrary nonlinear equation of state; (3) rigorous methods based on using the available potential energy and potential enthalpy budgets can be used to quantify the work of expansion/contraction B in steady and transient flows, which reveals that B is predominantly controlled by molecular diffusive effects, and act as a significant sink of kinetic energy.

The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, 'control' and 'doubled CO2' life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.

Granular flow in the marginal ice zone

The region of sea ice near the edge of the sea ice pack is known as the marginal ice zone (MIZ), and its dynamics are complicated by ocean wave interaction with the ice cover, strong gradients in the atmosphere and ocean and variations in sea ice rheology. This paper focuses on the role of sea ice rheology in determining the dynamics of the MIZ. Here, sea ice is treated as a granular material with a composite rheology describing collisional ice floe interaction and plastic interaction. The collisional component of sea ice rheology depends upon the granular temperature, a measure of the kinetic energy of flow fluctuations. A simplified model of the MIZ is introduced consisting of the along and across momentum balance of the sea ice and the balance equation of fluctuation kinetic energy. The steady solution of these equations is found to leading order using elementary methods. This reveals a concentrated region of rapid ice flow parallel to the ice edge, which is in accordance with field observations, and previously called the ice jet. Previous explanations of the ice jet relied upon the existence of ocean currents beneath the ice cover. We show that an ice jet results as a natural consequence of the granular nature of sea ice.

Structure of the planetary boundary layer over southeast England: modeling and measurements

The Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to analyze variations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure over Southeast England including central and suburban London. The parameterizations and predictive skills of two nonlocal mixing PBL schemes, YSU and ACM2, and two local mixing PBL schemes, MYJ and MYNN2, were evaluated over a variety of stability conditions, with model predictions at a 3 km grid spacing. The PBL height predictions, which are critical for scaling turbulence and diffusion in meteorological and air quality models, show significant intra-scheme variance (> 20%), and the reasons are presented. ACM2 diagnoses the PBL height thermodynamically using the bulk Richardson number method, which leads to a good agreement with the lidar data for both unstable and stable conditions. The modeled vertical profiles in the PBL, such as wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and heat flux, exhibit large spreads across the PBL schemes. The TKE predicted by MYJ were found to be too small and show much less diurnal variation as compared with observations over London. MYNN2 produces better TKE predictions at low levels than MYJ, but its turbulent length scale increases with height in the upper part of the strongly convective PBL, where it should decrease. The local PBL schemes considerably underestimate the entrainment heat fluxes for convective cases. The nonlocal PBL schemes exhibit stronger mixing in the mean wind fields under convective conditions than the local PBL schemes and agree better with large-eddy simulation (LES) studies.

The importance of vertical velocity variability for estimates of the indirect aerosol effects

The activation of aerosols to form cloud droplets is dependent upon vertical velocities whose local variability is not typically resolved at the GCM grid scale. Consequently, it is necessary to represent the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in the calculation of cloud droplet number concentration. This study uses the UK Chemistry and Aerosols community model (UKCA) within the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM3), coupled for the first time to an explicit aerosol activation parameterisation, and hence known as UKCA-Activate. We explore the range of uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects attributable to the choice of parameterisation of the subgrid-scale variability of vertical velocity in HadGEM-UKCA. Results of simulations demonstrate that the use of a characteristic vertical velocity cannot replicate results derived with a distribution of vertical velocities, and is to be discouraged in GCMs. This study focuses on the effect of the variance (σw2) of a Gaussian pdf (probability density function) of vertical velocity. Fixed values of σw (spanning the range measured in situ by nine flight campaigns found in the literature) and a configuration in which σw depends on turbulent kinetic energy are tested. Results from the mid-range fixed σw and TKE-based configurations both compare well with observed vertical velocity distributions and cloud droplet number concentrations. The radiative flux perturbation due to the total effects of anthropogenic aerosol is estimated at −1.9 W m−2 with σw = 0.1 m s−1, −2.1 W m−2 with σw derived from TKE, −2.25 W m−2 with σw = 0.4 m s−1, and −2.3 W m−2 with σw = 0.7 m s−1. The breadth of this range is 0.4 W m−2, which is comparable to a substantial fraction of the total diversity of current aerosol forcing estimates. Reducing the uncertainty in the parameterisation of σw would therefore be an important step towards reducing the uncertainty in estimates of the indirect aerosol effects. Detailed examination of regional radiative flux perturbations reveals that aerosol microphysics can be responsible for some climate-relevant radiative effects, highlighting the importance of including microphysical aerosol processes in GCMs.

The dynamics of Baroclinic Zonal jets

Multiple alternating zonal jets are a ubiquitous feature of planetary atmospheres and oceans. However, most studies to date have focused on the special case of barotropic jets. Here, the dynamics of freely evolving baroclinic jets are investigated using a two-layer quasigeostrophic annulus model with sloping topography. In a suite of 15 numerical simulations, the baroclinic Rossby radius and baroclinic Rhines scale are sampled by varying the stratification and root-mean-square eddy velocity, respectively. Small-scale eddies in the initial state evolve through geostrophic turbulence and accelerate zonally as they grow in horizontal scale, first isotropically and then anisotropically. This process leads ultimately to the formation of jets, which take about 2500 rotation periods to equilibrate. The kinetic energy spectrum of the equilibrated baroclinic zonal flow steepens from a −3 power law at small scales to a −5 power law near the jet scale. The conditions most favorable for producing multiple alternating baroclinic jets are large baroclinic Rossby radius (i.e., strong stratification) and small baroclinic Rhines scale (i.e., weak root-mean-square eddy velocity). The baroclinic jet width is diagnosed objectively and found to be 2.2–2.8 times larger than the baroclinic Rhines scale, with a best estimate of 2.5 times larger. This finding suggests that Rossby wave motions must be moving at speeds of approximately 6 times the turbulent eddy velocity in order to be capable of arresting the isotropic inverse energy cascade.

Low-level mixing height detection in coastal locations with a scanning Doppler lidar

Mixing layer height (MLH) is one of the key parameters in describing lower tropospheric dynamics and capturing its diurnal variability is crucial, especially for interpreting surface observations. In this paper we introduce a method for identifying MLH below the minimum range of a scanning Doppler lidar when operated at vertical. The method we propose is based on velocity variance in low-elevation-angle conical scanning and is applied to measurements in two very different coastal environments: Limassol, Cyprus, during summer and Loviisa, Finland, during winter. At both locations, the new method agrees well with MLH derived from turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate profiles obtained from vertically pointing measurements. The low-level scanning routine frequently indicated non-zero MLH less than 100 m above the surface. Such low MLHs were more common in wintertime Loviisa on the Baltic Sea coast than during summertime in Mediterranean Limassol.