Testing insect movement theory: empirical analysis of pest data routinely collected from agricultural crops

Observations of an insect's movement lead to theory on the insect's flight behaviour and the role of movement in the species' population dynamics. This theory leads to predictions of the way the population changes in time under different conditions. If a hypothesis on movement predicts a specific change in the population, then the hypothesis can be tested against observations of population change. Routine pest monitoring of agricultural crops provides a convenient source of data for studying movement into a region and among fields within a region. Examples of the use of statistical and computational methods for testing hypotheses with such data are presented. The types of questions that can be addressed with these methods and the limitations of pest monitoring data when used for this purpose are discussed. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Outcome of stroke patients admitted to intensive care: Experience from an Australian teaching hospital

The objective of this study was to determine the mortality rate and the functional outcomes of stroke patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and to identify predictors of poor outcome in this population. The records of all patients admitted to the ICU with the diagnosis of stroke between January 1994 and December 1999 were reviewed. Patients with subarachnoid haemorrhage were excluded. Data were collected on clinical and biological variables, risk factors for stroke and the presence of comorbidities. Mortality (ICU, in-hospital and three-month) and functional outcome were used as end-points. In the six-year-period, 61 patients were admitted to the ICU with either haemorrhagic or ischaemic stroke. Medical records were available for only 58 patients. There were 23 ischaemic and 35 haemorrhagic strokes. The ICU, in-hospital and three-month mortality rates were 36%, 47% and 52% respectively. There were no significant differences in the prevalence of premorbid risk factors between survivors and non-survivors. The mean Barthel score was significantly different between the independent and dependent survivors (94 +/- 6 vs 45 +/- 26, P < 0.001). A substantial number of patients with good functional outcomes had lower Rankin scores (92% vs 11%, P < 0.001). Only 46% of those who were alive at three months were functionally independent. Intensive care admission was associated with a high mortality rate and a high likelihood of dependent lifestyle after hospital discharge. Haemorrhagic stroke, fixed dilated pupil(s) and GCS < 10 during assessment were associated with increased mortality and poor functional outcome.

Tracing the fate of N-15-enriched feed in an intensive shrimp system

The fate of N-15-nitrogen-enriched formulated feed fed to shrimp was traced through the food web in shallow, outdoor tank systems (1000 1) stocked with shrimp. Triplicate tanks containing shrimp water with and without sediment were used to identify the role of the natural biota in the water column and sediment in processing dietary nitrogen (N). A preliminary experiment demonstrated that N-15-nitrogen-enriched feed products could be detected in the food web. Based on this, a 15-day experiment was conducted. The ammonium (NH4+) pool in the water column became rapidly enriched (within one day) with N-15-nitrogen after shrimp were fed N-15-enriched feed. By day 15, 6% of the added N-15-nitrogen was in this fraction in the 'sediment' tanks compared with 0.4% in the 'no sediment' tanks. The particulate fraction in the water column, principally autotrophic nanoflagellates, accounted for 4-5% of the N-15-nitrogen fed to shrimp after one day. This increased to 16% in the 'no sediment' treatment, and decreased to 2% in the 'sediment' treatment by day 15. It appears that dietary N was more accessible to the phytoplankton community in the absence of sediment. The difference is possibly because a proportion of the dietary N was buried in the sediment in the 'sediment' treatment, making it unavailable to the phytoplankton. Alternatively, the dietary N was retained in the NH4+ pool in the water column since phytoplankton growth, and hence, N utilization was lower in the 'sediment' treatment. The lower growth of phytoplankton in the 'sediment' treatment appeared to be related to higher turbidity, and hence, lower light availability for growth. The percentage N-15-nitrogen detected in the sediment was only 6% despite the high capacity for sedimentation of the large biomass of plankton detritus and shrimp waste. This suggests rapid remineralization of organic waste by the microbial community in the sediment resulting in diffusion of inorganic N sources into the water column. It is likely that most of the dietary N will ultimately be removed from the tank system by water discharges. Our study showed that N-15-nitrogen derived from aquaculture feed can be processed by the microbial community in outdoor aquaculture systems and provides a method for determining the effect of dietary N on ecosystems. However, a significant amount of the dietary N was not retained by the natural biota and is likely to be present in the soluble organic fraction. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

The morbidity of Guillain-Barré syndrome admitted to the intensive care unit

Patients with severe forms of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) require intensive care. Specific treatment, catheterization, and devices may increase morbidity in the intensive care unit (ICU). To understand the spectrum of morbidity associated with ICU care, the authors studied 114 patients with GBS. Major morbidity occurred in 60% of patients. Complications were uncommon if ICU stay was less than 3 weeks. Respiratory complications such as pneumonia and tracheobronchitis occurred in half of the patients and were linked to mechanical ventilation. Systemic infection occurred in one-fifth of patients and was more frequent with increasing duration of ICU admission. Direct complications of treatment and invasive procedures occurred infrequently. Life-threatening complications such as gastrointestinal bleeding and pulmonary embolism were very uncommon. Pulmonary morbidity predominates in patients with severe GBS admitted to the ICU. Attention to management of mechanical ventilation and weaning is important to minimize this complication of GBS. Other causes of morbidity in a tertiary center ICU are uncommon.

Remoção do herbicida 2,4-D por meio do tratamento convencional da água e adsorção em carvão ativado granular em instalação piloto

O crescimento populacional empurra a produção agrícola em direção ao uso intensivo dos agrotóxicos que aumentam a produtividade. Porém, seu uso incorreto pode resultar em grave problema para as estações de tratamento da água e impactar negativamente na saúde pública. Segundo estudos em escala laboratorial, o tratamento convencional, um dos mais utilizados no Brasil, apresenta remoção insignificante do 2,4-D. A adsorção em carvão ativado tem se demonstrado como tecnologia eficiente na remoção de diversos contaminantes, dentre eles os agrotóxicos. Assim, foi avaliada a remoção dos herbicidas 2,4-D e 2,4,5-T e metabólito 2,4-DCP, utilizando o tratamento convencional e a adsorção em coluna de carvão ativado granular em instalação piloto. O carvão ativado granular empregado foi o derivado da casca de coco. A concentração dos herbicidas foi analisada por cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência com detector por arranjo de diodos e extração em fase sólida. A associação do tratamento convencional com a adsorção em carvão ativado granular apresentou elevada remoção do 2,4-D (99%) atingindo concentrações finais abaixo do limite da Portaria MS n° 2914/2011. O tratamento convencional, no entanto, também apresentou remoção do 2,4-D (35 a 59%), sendo o maior percentual obtido na decantação (30 a 52%), indicando que houve interação entre a matéria orgânica natural e o 2,4-D, contribuindo para sua remoção nessa etapa. O 2,4-DCP e 2,4,5-T apresentaram concentrações abaixo do limite de detecção.

International drivers of Brazilian agricultural cooperation in Africa in the post-2008 economic crisis

This text focuses on the major drivers of Brazilian agricultural cooperation in Africa as conceived and pursued from 2004 to 2014, with emphasis on the impacts of political and economic international changes that took place in that period, and particularly the impacts of the 2008 economic crisis, in framing Brazil's foreign policy and development assistance initiatives. It addresses current international forces and developments at the systemic level, but also analyses recent economic domestic developments, in particular those directly related to Brazilian agriculture and those related to the policy framework of its evolving internationalization. Special attention is paid to the dual dimensions of Brazilian agricultural policy and to its projection in agricultural cooperation as pursed in Africa.

Agricultural development and arthropod-borne diseases: a review

A review is presented of the interrelationships between arthropod vectors, the diseases they transmit and agricultural development. Particular attention is given to the effects of deforestation, livestock development and irrigation on the abundance of vectors and changing patterns of diseases such as malaria, trypanosomiases, leishmaniasis, Chagas' and some arboviral infections. The question as whether keeping livestock diverts biting away from people and reduces diseases such as malaria - that is zooprophylaxis, or whether the presence of cattle actually increases biting populations is discussed.

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering intensive wind penetration

The use of distributed energy resources, based on natural intermittent power sources, like wind generation, in power systems imposes the development of new adequate operation management and control methodologies. A short-term Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodology performed in two phases is proposed in this paper. The first one addresses the day-ahead ERM scheduling and the second one deals with the five-minute ahead ERM scheduling. The ERM scheduling is a complex optimization problem due to the high quantity of variables and constraints. In this paper the main goal is to minimize the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player that manages the network and the existing resources. The optimization problem is solved by a deterministic mixedinteger non-linear programming approach. A case study considering a distribution network with 33 bus, 66 distributed generation, 32 loads with demand response contracts and 7 storage units and 1000 electric vehicles has been implemented in a simulator developed in the field of the presented work, in order to validate the proposed short-term ERM methodology considering the dynamic power system behavior.

Demsi - a demand response simulator in the context of intensive use of distributed generation

Demand response can play a very relevant role in future power systems in which distributed generation can help to assure service continuity in some fault situations. This paper deals with the demand response concept and discusses its use in the context of competitive electricity markets and intensive use of distributed generation. The paper presents DemSi, a demand response simulator that allows studying demand response actions and schemes using a realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. Demand response opportunities are used in an optimized way considering flexible contracts between consumers and suppliers. A case study evidences the advantages of using flexible contracts and optimizing the available generation when there is a lack of supply.

Neonatal mortality in intensive care units of Central Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential prognostic factors for neonatal mortality among newborns referred to intensive care units. METHODS: A live-birth cohort study was carried out in Goiânia, Central Brazil, from November 1999 to October 2000. Linked birth and infant death certificates were used to ascertain the cohort of live born infants. An additional active surveillance system of neonatal-based mortality was implemented. Exposure variables were collected from birth and death certificates. The outcome was survivors (n=713) and deaths (n=162) in all intensive care units in the study period. Cox's proportional hazards model was applied and a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of statistically significant variables in the multivariable model. Adjusted mortality rates by birth weight and 5-min Apgar score were calculated for each intensive care unit. RESULTS: Low birth weight and 5-min Apgar score remained independently associated to death. Birth weight equal to 2,500g had 0.71 accuracy (95% CI: 0.65-0.77) for predicting neonatal death (sensitivity =72.2%). A wide variation in the mortality rates was found among intensive care units (9.5-48.1%) and two of them remained with significant high mortality rates even after adjusting for birth weight and 5-min Apgar score. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates birth weight as a sensitive screening variable in surveillance programs for neonatal death and also to target intensive care units with high mortality rates for implementing preventive actions and interventions during the delivery period.

Pesticides and respiratory symptoms among farmers

OBJECTIVE: Despite the intensive use of pesticides in agriculture there are few studies assessing the risk of respiratory conditions from this exposure. The study aimed at quantifying the prevalence of respiratory symptoms among farmers and evaluating its relationship with occupational use of pesticides and the prevalence of respiratory symptoms. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1,379 farmers from two municipalities of Southern Brazil in 1996. Frequency and type of chemical exposure and pesticide poisoning were recorded for both sexes. All subjects aged 15 years or older with at least 15 weekly hours of agricultural activity were interviewed. An adapted questionnaire developed by the American Thoracic Society was used for the assessment of respiratory symptoms. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was carried out. RESULTS: More than half (55%) of interviewees were male. The prevalence of asthma symptoms was 12% and chronic respiratory disease symptoms was 22%. Higher odds ratios for both asthma (OR=1.51; 95% CI: 1.07-2.14) and chronic respiratory disease (OR=1.34; 95% CI 1.00-1.81) symptoms were found in women. Logistic regression analysis identified associations between many forms of exposure to pesticides and increased respiratory symptoms. Occurrence of pesticide poisoning was associated with higher prevalence of asthma symptoms (OR=1.54; 95% CI: 1.04-2.58) and chronic respiratory disease symptoms (OR=1.57; 95% CI: 1.08-2.28). CONCLUSIONS: In spite of causality limitations, the study results provide evidence that farming exposure to pesticides is associated with higher prevalence of respiratory symptoms, especially when the exposure is above two days per month.