Pricing-to-market for UK export sector

This thesis investigates the pricing-to-market (PTM) behaviour of the UK export sector. Unlike previous studies, this study econometrically tests for seasonal unit roots in the export prices prior to estimating PTM behaviour. Prior studies have seasonally adjusted the data automatically. This study’s results show that monthly export prices contain very little seasonal unit roots implying that there is a loss of information in the data generating process of the series when estimating PTM using seasonally-adjusted data. Prior studies have also ignored the econometric properties of the data despite the existence of ARCH effects in such data. The standard approach has been to estimate PTM models using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). For this reason, both EGARCH and GJR-EGARCH (hereafter GJR) estimation methods are used to estimate both a standard and an Error Correction model (ECM) of PTM. The results indicate that PTM behaviour varies across UK sectors. The variables used in the PTM models are co-integrated and an ECM is a valid representation of pricing behaviour. The study also finds that the price adjustment is slower when the analysis is performed on real prices, i.e., data that are adjusted for inflation. There is strong evidence of auto-regressive condition heteroscedasticity (ARCH) effects – meaning that the PTM parameter estimates of prior studies have been ineffectively estimated. Surprisingly, there is very little evidence of asymmetry. This suggests that exporters appear to PTM at a relatively constant rate. This finding might also explain the failure of prior studies to find evidence of asymmetric exposure in foreign exchange (FX) rates. This study also provides a cross sectional analysis to explain the implications of the observed PTM of producers’ marginal cost, market share and product differentiation. The cross-sectional regressions are estimated using OLS, Generalised Method of Moment (GMM) and Logit estimations. Overall, the results suggest that market share affects PTM positively.Exporters with smaller market share are more likely to operate PTM. Alternatively, product differentiation is negatively associated with PTM. So industries with highly differentiated products are less likely to adjust their prices. However, marginal costs seem not to be significantly associated with PTM. Exporters perform PTM to limit the FX rate effect pass-through to their foreign customers, but they also avoided exploiting PTM to the full, since to do so can substantially reduce their profits.

Chemical and physical methods of enhancing the percutaneous absorption of antimicrobial agents

Contrary to previously held beliefs, it is now known that bacteria exist not only on the surface of the skin but they are also distributed at varying depths beneath the skin surface. Hence, in order to sterilise the skin, antimicrobial agents are required to penetrate across the skin and eliminate the bacteria residing at all depths. Chlorhexidine is an antimicrobial agent with the widest use for skin sterilisation. However, due to its poor permeation rate across the skin, sterilisation of the skin cannot be achieved and, therefore, the remaining bacteria can act as a source of infection during an operation or insertion of catheters. The underlying theme of this study is to enhance the permeation of this antimicrobial agent in the skin by employing chemical (enhancers and supersaturated systems) or physical (iontophoresis) techniques. The hydrochloride salt of chlorhexidine (CHX), a poorly soluble salt, was used throughout this study. The effect of ionisation on in vitro permeation rate across the excised human epidennis was investigated using Franz-type diffusion cells. Saturated solutions of CHX were used as donor and the variable studied was vehicle pH. Permeation rate was increased with increasing vehicle pH. The pH effect was not related to the level of ionisation of the drug. The effect of donor vehicle was also studied using saturated solutions of CHX in 10% and 20% ethanol as the donor solutions. Permeation of CHX was enhanced by increasing the concentration of ethanol which could be due to the higher concentration of CHX in the donor phase and the effect of ethanol itself on the membrane. The interplay between drug diffusion and enhancer pretreatment of the epidennis was studied. Pretreatment of the membrane with 10% Azone/PG demonstrated the highest diffusion rate followed by 10% olcic acid/PG pretreatment compared to other pretreatment regimens (ethanol, dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO), propylene glycol (PG), sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS) and dodecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (DT AB). Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) was also employed to study the mode of action of these enhancers. The potential of supersaturated solutions in enhancing percutaneous absorption of CHX was investigated. Various anti-nucleating polymers were screened in order to establish the most effective agent. Polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP, K30) was found to be a better candidate than its lower molecular weight counterpart (K25) and hydroxypropyl methyleellulose (HPMC). The permeation studies showed an increase in diffusion rate by increasing the degree of saturation. Iontophoresis is a physical means of transdemal drug delivery enhancement that causes an increased penetration of molecules into or through the skin by the application of an electric field. This technique was employed in conjunction with chemical enhancers to assess the effect on CHX permeation across the human epidermis. An improved transport of CHX, which was pH dependant was observed upon application of the current. Combined use of iontophoresis and chemical enhancers further increased the CHX transport indicating a synergistic effect. Pretreatment of the membrane with 10% Azone/PG demonstrated the greatest effect.

House building productivity : a study of labour requirements on Scottish house building sites using activity sampling methods

This study is concerned with labour productivity in traditional house building in Scotland. Productivity is a measure of the effective use of resources and provides vital benefits that can be combined in a number of ways. The introduction gives the background to two Scottish house building sites (Blantyre and Greenfield) that were surveyed by the Building Research Establishment (BEE) activity sampling method to provide the data for the study. The study had two main objectives; (1) summary data analysis in average manhours per house between all the houses on the site, and (2) detailed data analysis in average manhours for each house block on the site. The introduction also provides a literature review related to the objectives. The method is outlined in Chapter 2, the sites are discussed in Chapter 3, and Chapter 4 covers the method application on each site and a method development made in the study. The summary data analysis (Chapter 5) compares Blantyre and Greenfield, and two previous BEE surveys in England. The main detailed data analysis consisted of three forms, (Chapters 6, 7 and 8) each applied to a set of operations. The three forms of analysis were variations in average manhours per house for each house block on the site compared with; (1) block construction order, (2) average number of separate visits per house made by operatives to each block to complete an operation, and (3) average number of different operatives per house employed on an operation in each block. Three miscellaneous items of detail data analysis are discussed in Chapter 9. The conclusions to the whole study state that considerable variations in manhours for repeated operations were discovered, that the numbers of visits by operatives to complete operations were large and that the numbers of different operatives employed in some operations were a factor related to productivity. A critique of the activity sampling method suggests that the data produced is reliable in summary form and can give a good context for more detailed data collection. For future work, this could take the form of selected operations, with the context of an activity sampling survey, that wuld be intensively surveyed by other methods.

Pre-conception care : current practice and methods of provision

This thesis examines the present provisions for pre-conception care and the views of the providers of services. Pre-conception care is seen by some clinicians and health educators as a means of making any necessary changes in life style, corrections to imbalances in the nutritional status of the prospective mother (and father) and the assessment of any medical problems, thus maximizing the likelihood of the normal development of the baby. Pre-conception care may be described as a service to bridge the gap between the family planning clinic and the first ante-natal booking appointment. There were three separate foci for the empirical research - the Foresight organisation (a charity which has pioneered pre-conception care in Britain); the pre-conception care clinic at the West London Hospital, Hammersmith; and the West Midlands Regional Health Authority. The six main sources of data were: twenty five clinicians operating Foresight pre-conception clinics, couples attending pre-conception clinics, committee members of the Foresight organisation, staff of the West London Hospital pre-conception clinic, Hammersmith, District Health Education Officers working in the West Midlands Regional Health Authority and the members of the Ante-Natal Care Action Group, a sub-group of the Regional Health Advisory Group on Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine. A range of research methods were adopted. These were as follows: questionnaires and report forms used in co-operation with the Foresight clinicians, interviews, participant observation discussions and informal meetings and, finally, literature and official documentation. The research findings illustrated that pre-conception care services provided at the predominantly private Foresight clinics were of a rather `ad hoc' nature. The type of provision varied considerably and clearly reflected the views held by its providers. The protocol which had been developed to assist in the standardization of results was not followed by the clinicians. The pre-conception service provided at the West London Hospital shared some similarities in its approach with the Foresight provision; a major difference was that it did not advocate the use of routine hair trace metal analysis. Interviews with District Health Education Officers and with members of the Ante Natal Care Action Group revealed a tentative and cautious approach to pre-conception care generally and to the Foresight approach in particular. The thesis concludes with a consideration of the future of pre-conception care and the prospects for the establishment of a comprehensive pre-conception care service.

Pricing-to-market and the volatility of UK export prices

This empirical study examines the Pricing-To-Market (PTM) behaviour of 20 UK export sectors. Using both Exponential General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) estimation methods, we find evidence of PTM that is accompanied by strong conditional volatility and weak asymmetry effects. The PTM estimates suggest that when the currency of exporters appreciates in the current period, exporters pass-on between 31% and 94% of the Foreign Exchange (FX) rate increase to importers. However, both export price changes and producers' prices are sluggish, perhaps being driven by coordination failure and menu driven costs, amongst others. Furthermore, export prices contain strong time varying effects which impact on PTM strategy. Exporters do not typically appear to put much more weight on negative news of (say) an FX rate appreciation compared to positive news of an FX rate depreciation. Much depends on the export sector. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Acute mobile phone operation affects neural function in humans

OBJECTIVES: Mobile phones (MP) are used extensively and yet little is known about the effects they may have on human physiology. There have been conflicting reports regarding the relation between MP use and the electroencephalogram (EEG). The present study suggests that this conflict may be due to methodological differences such as exposure durations, and tests whether exposure to an active MP affects EEG as a function of time. METHODS: Twenty-four subjects participated in a single-blind fully counterbalanced cross-over design, where both resting EEG and phase-locked neural responses to auditory stimuli were measured while a MP was either operating or turned off. RESULTS: MP exposure altered resting EEG, decreasing 1-4 Hz activity (right hemisphere sites), and increasing 8-12 Hz activity as a function of exposure duration (midline posterior sites). MP exposure also altered early phase-locked neural responses, attenuating the normal response decrement over time in the 4-8 Hz band, decreasing the response in the 1230 Hz band globally and as a function of time, and increasing midline frontal and lateral posterior responses in the 30-45 Hz band. CONCLUSIONS: Active MPs affect neural function in humans and do so as a function of exposure duration. The temporal nature of this effect may contribute to the lack of consistent results reported in the literature.

About Methods of Mathematical Modelling in the Development of Information Systems

This article describes the approach, which allows to develop information systems without taking into consideration details of physical storage of the relational model and type database management system. Described in terms of graph model, this approach allows to construct several algorithms, for example, for verification application domain. This theory was introduced into operation testing as a part of CASE-system METAS.

Thermal modelling for dynamic transformer rating in low carbon distribution network operation

Dynamic asset rating is one of a number of techniques that could be used to facilitate low carbon electricity network operation. This paper focusses on distribution level transformer dynamic rating under this context. The models available for use with dynamic asset rating are discussed and compared using measured load and weather conditions from a trial Network area within Milton Keynes. The paper then uses the most appropriate model to investigate, through simulation, the potential gains in dynamic rating compared to static rating under two transformer cooling methods to understand the potential gain to the Network Operator.

Bit error rate estimation methods for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission

Coherent optical orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (CO-OFDM) is an attractive transmission technique to virtually eliminate intersymbol interference caused by chromatic dispersion and polarization-mode dispersion. Design, development, and operation of CO-OFDM systems require simple, efficient, and reliable methods of their performance evaluation. In this paper, we demonstrate an accurate bit error rate estimation method for QPSK CO-OFDM transmission based on the probability density function of the received QPSK symbols. By comparing with other known approaches, including data-aided and nondata-aided error vector magnitude, we show that the proposed method offers the most accurate estimate of the system performance for both single channel and wavelength division multiplexing QPSK CO-OFDM transmission systems. © 2014 IEEE.

Experience of Development and Application of Expert Systems for Economic Macroparameters Forecasting and Operation

In this article there are considered problems of forecasting economical macroparameters, and in the first place, index of inflation. Concept of development of synthetical forecasting methods which use directly specified expert information as well as calculation result on the basis of objective economical and mathematical models for forecasting separate “slowly changeable parameters” are offered. This article discusses problems of macroparameters operation on the basis of analysis of received prognostic magnitude.

Recursive Methods for Construction of Balanced N-ary Block Designs

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: Primary 05B05; secondary 62K10.

Sustainable rural development through alternative economic networks: Redefining relations in the commodity chain for export vegetables in western Guatemala

The current research considers the capacity of a local organic food system for producer and consumer empowerment and sustainable development outcomes in western Guatemala. Many have argued that the forging of local agricultural networks linking farmers, consumers, and supporting institutions is an effective tool for challenging the negative economic, environmental, and sociopolitical impacts associated with industrial models of global food production. But does this work in the context of agrarian development in the developing world? Despite the fact that there is extensive literature concerning local food system formation in the global north, there remains a paucity of research covering how the principles of local food systems are being integrated into agricultural development projects in developing countries. My work critically examines claims to agricultural sustainability and actor empowerment in a local organic food system built around non-traditional agricultural crops in western Guatemala. Employing a mixed methods research design involving twenty months of participant observation, in-depth interviewing, surveying, and a self-administered questionnaire, the project evaluates the sustainability of this NGO-led development initiative and local food movement along several dimensions. Focusing on the unique economic and social networks of actors and institutions at each stage of the commodity chain, this research shows how the growth of an alternative food system continues to be shaped by context specific processes, politics, and structures of conventional food systems. Further, it shows how the specifics of context also produce new relationships of cooperation and power in the development process. Results indicate that structures surrounding agrarian development in the Guatemalan context give rise to a hybrid form of development that at the same time contests and reinforces conventional models of food production and consumption. Therefore, participation entails a host of compromises and tradeoffs that result in mixed successes and setbacks, as actors attempt to refashion conventional commodity chains through local food system formation.^

Hybrid power system intelligent operation and protection involving distributed architectures and pulsed loads

Efficient and reliable techniques for power delivery and utilization are needed to account for the increased penetration of renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such methods are also required for current and future demands of plug-in electric vehicles and high-power electronic loads. Distributed control and optimal power network architectures will lead to viable solutions to the energy management issue with high level of reliability and security. This dissertation is aimed at developing and verifying new techniques for distributed control by deploying DC microgrids, involving distributed renewable generation and energy storage, through the operating AC power system. To achieve the findings of this dissertation, an energy system architecture was developed involving AC and DC networks, both with distributed generations and demands. The various components of the DC microgrid were designed and built including DC-DC converters, voltage source inverters (VSI) and AC-DC rectifiers featuring novel designs developed by the candidate. New control techniques were developed and implemented to maximize the operating range of the power conditioning units used for integrating renewable energy into the DC bus. The control and operation of the DC microgrids in the hybrid AC/DC system involve intelligent energy management. Real-time energy management algorithms were developed and experimentally verified. These algorithms are based on intelligent decision-making elements along with an optimization process. This was aimed at enhancing the overall performance of the power system and mitigating the effect of heavy non-linear loads with variable intensity and duration. The developed algorithms were also used for managing the charging/discharging process of plug-in electric vehicle emulators. The protection of the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system was studied. Fault analysis and protection scheme and coordination, in addition to ideas on how to retrofit currently available protection concepts and devices for AC systems in a DC network, were presented. A study was also conducted on the effect of changing the distribution architecture and distributing the storage assets on the various zones of the network on the system's dynamic security and stability. A practical shipboard power system was studied as an example of a hybrid AC/DC power system involving pulsed loads. Generally, the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system, besides most of the ideas, controls and algorithms presented in this dissertation, were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed, Energy Systems Research Laboratory. All the developments in this dissertation were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed.

A study of methods used to analyze total oil and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in produced water: steps towards the validation of molecularly imprinted polymers for use in marine environmetns

Produced water is a by-product of offshore oil and gas production, and is released in large volumes when platforms are actively processing crude oil. Some pollutants are not typically removed by conventional oil/water separation methods and are discharged with produced water. Oil and grease can be found dispersed in produced water in the form of tiny droplets, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are commonly found dissolved in produced water. Both can have acute and chronic toxic effects in marine environments even at low exposure levels. The analysis of the dissolved and dispersed phases are a priority, but effort is required to meet the necessary detection limits. There are several methods for the analysis of produced water for dispersed oil and dissolved PAHs, all of which have advantages and disadvantages. In this work, EPA Method 1664 and APHA Method 5520 C for the determination of oil and grease will be examined and compared. For the detection of PAHs, EPA Method 525 and PAH MIPs will be compared, and results evaluated. APHA Method 5520 C Partition-Infrared Method is a liquid-liquid extraction procedure with IR determination of oil and grease. For analysis on spiked samples of artificial seawater, extraction efficiency ranged from 85 – 97%. Linearity was achieved in the range of 5 – 500 mg/L. This is a single-wavelength method and is unsuitable for quantification of aromatics and other compounds that lack sp³-hybridized carbon atoms. EPA Method 1664 is the liquid-liquid extraction of oil and grease from water samples followed by gravimetric determination. When distilled water spiked with reference oil was extracted by this procedure, extraction efficiency ranged from 28.4 – 86.2%, and %RSD ranged from 7.68 – 38.0%. EPA Method 525 uses solid phase extraction with analysis by GC-MS, and was performed on distilled water and water from St. John’s Harbour, all spiked with naphthalene, fluorene, phenanthrene, and pyrene. The limits of detection in harbour water were 0.144, 3.82, 0.119, and 0.153 g/L respectively. Linearity was obtained in the range of 0.5-10 g/L, and %RSD ranged from 0.36% (fluorene) to 46% (pyrene). Molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) are sorbent materials made selective by polymerizing functional monomers and crosslinkers in the presence of a template molecule, usually the analytes of interest or related compounds. They can adsorb and concentrate PAHs from aqueous environments and are combined with methods of analysis including GC-MS, LC-UV-Vis, and desorption electrospray ionization (DESI)- MS. This work examines MIP-based methods as well as those methods previously mentioned which are currently used by the oil and gas industry and government environmental agencies. MIPs are shown to give results consistent with other methods, and are a low-cost alternative improving ease, throughput, and sensitivity. PAH MIPs were used to determine naphthalene spiked into ASTM artificial seawater, as well as produced water from an offshore oil and gas operation. Linearity was achieved in the range studied (0.5 – 5 mg/L) for both matrices, with R² = 0.936 for seawater and R² = 0.819 for produced water. The %RSD for seawater ranged from 6.58 – 50.5% and for produced water, from 8.19 – 79.6%.

ADVANCED ISLANDING DETECTION METHODS FOR SINGLE PHASE GRID CONNECTED PV INVERTERS

Due to the growing concerns associated with fossil fuels, emphasis has been placed on clean and sustainable energy generation. This has resulted in the increase in Photovoltaics (PV) units being integrated into the utility system. The integration of PV units has raised some concerns for utility power systems, including the consequences of failing to detect islanding. Numerous methods for islanding detection have been introduced in literature. They can be categorized into local methods and remote methods. The local methods are categorically divided into passive and active methods. Active methods generally have smaller Non-Detection Zone (NDZ) but the injecting disturbances will slightly degrade the power quality and reliability of the power system. Slip Mode Frequency Shift Islanding Detection Method (SMS IDM) is an active method that uses positive feedback for islanding detection. In this method, the phase angle of the converter is controlled to have a sinusoidal function of the deviation of the Point of Common Coupling (PCC) voltage frequency from the nominal grid frequency. This method has a non-detection zone which means it fails to detect islanding for specific local load conditions. If the SMS IDM employs a different function other than the sinusoidal function for drifting the phase angle of the inverter, its non-detection zone could be smaller. In addition, Advanced Slip Mode Frequency Shift Islanding Detection Method (Advanced SMS IDM), which has been introduced in this thesis, eliminates the non-detection zone of the SMS IDM. In this method the parameters of SMS IDM change based on the local load impedance value. Moreover, the stability of the system is investigated by developing the dynamical equations of the system for two operation modes; grid connected and islanded mode. It is mathematically proven that for some loading conditions the nominal frequency is an unstable point and the operation frequency slides to another stable point, while for other loading conditions the nominal frequency is the only stable point of the system upon islanding occurring. Simulation and experimental results show the accuracy of the proposed methods in detection of islanding and verify the validity of the mathematical analysis.