Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

Educational stress among Chinese adolescents : measurement, risk factors and associations with mental health

Academic pressure among adolescents is a major risk factor for poor mental health and suicide and other harmful behaviours. While this is a worldwide phenomenon, it appears to be especially pronounced in China and other East Asian countries. Despite a growing body of research into adolescent mental health in recent years, the multiple constructs within the ‘educational stress’ phenomenon have not been clearly articulated in Chinese contexts. Further, the individual, family, school and peer influencing factors for educational stress and its associations with adolescent mental health are not well understood. An in-depth investigation may provide important information for the ongoing educational reform in Mainland China with a special focus on students’ mental health and wellbeing. The primary goal of this study was to examine the relative contribution of educational stress to poor mental health, in comparison to other well-known individual, family, school and peer factors. Another important task was to identify significant risk factors for educational stress. In addition, due to the lack of a culturally suitable instrument for educational stress in this population, a new tool – the Educational Stress Scale for Adolescents (ESSA) was initially developed in this study and tested for reliability and validity. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information from convenient samples of secondary school students in Shandong, China. The pilot survey was conducted with 347 students (grades 8 and 11) to test the psychometric properties of the ESSA and other scales or questions in the questionnaire. Based on factor analysis and reliability and validity testing, the 16-item scale (the ESSA) with five factors showed adequate to good internal consistency, 2-week test-retest reliability, and satisfactory concurrent and predictive validity. Its factor structure was further demonstrated in the main survey with a confirmatory factor analysis illustrating a good fit of the proposed model based on a confirmatory factor analysis. The reliabilities of other scales and questions were also adequate to be used in this study. The main survey was subsequently conducted with a sample of 1627 secondary school (grades 7-12) students to examine the influencing factors of educational stress and its associations with mental health outcomes, including depression, happiness and suicidal behaviours. A wide range of individual, family, school and peer factors were found to have a significant association with the total ESSA and subscale scores. Most of the strong factors for academic stress were school or study-related, including rural school location, low school connectedness, perceived poor academic grades and frequent emotional conflicts with teachers and peers. Unexpectedly, family and parental factors, such as parental bonding, family connectedness and conflicts with parents were found to have little or no association with educational stress. Educational stress was the most predictive variable for depression, but was not strongly associated with happiness. It had a strong association with suicide ideation but not with suicide attempts. Among five subscales of the ESSA, ‘Study despondency’ score had the strongest associations with these mental health measures. Surprising, two subscales, ‘Self-expectation’ and ‘Worry about grades’ showed a protective effect on suicidal behaviours. An additional analysis revealed that although academic pressure was the most commonly reported reason for suicidal thinking, the occurrence of problems in peer relationships such as peer teasing and bullying, and romantic problems had a much stronger relationship with actual attempts. This study provides some insights into the nature and health implications of educational stress among Chinese adolescents. Findings in this study suggest that interventions on educational stress should focus on school environment and academic factors. Intervention programs focused on educational stress may have a high impact on the prevalence of common mental disorders such as depression. Efforts to increase perceived happiness however should cover a wider range of individual, family and school factors. The importance of healthy peer relationships should be adequately emphasised in suicide prevention. In addition, the newly developed scale (the ESSA) demonstrates sound psychometric properties and is expected to be used in future research into academic-related stress among secondary school adolescents.

Academic stress among adolescents in China

Pressure from study has long been identified as a significant contributor to many mental health problems in school children and adolescents. Students are often stressed by heavy workload, high academic expectation and dissatisfaction with their grades. Excessive amount of this special type of stress (academic stress or educational stress) may then lead to severe psychological symptoms, such as depressed mood, anxious feelings and even suicide thoughts and acts when coping recourses are exhausted. Chinese students are believed to have high academic burden and pressure due to high expectations of their parents and fierce competitions with their peers. Knowledge of the nature and health effects of academic stress may be useful to inform quality education and mental health promotions. This review aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of reported literature regarding educational stress and its relationships with mental health problems worldwide and the current research progress in Chinese adolescents, and to provide directions for future research into this topic in Chinese adolescent populations.

Multi-cursor multi-user mobile interaction with a large shared display

When using a mobile device to control a cursor on a large shared display, the interaction must be carefully planned to match the environment and purpose of the systems use. We describe a ‘democratic jukebox’ system that revealed five recommendations that should be considered when designing this type of interaction relating to providing feedback to the user; how to represent users in a multi-cursor based system; where people tend to look and their expectation of how to move their cursor; the orientation of screens and the social context; and, the use of simulated users to give the real users a sense that they are engaging with a greater audience.

Stakeholder service delivery expectations of military facilities management

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the quality of service of a South East Asian country's military facilities management organisation. Design/methodology/approach – An interview survey and questionnaire survey were used to obtain a description and summary of stakeholders’ expectations and the extent to which they were being satisfied by the services provided. Findings – The method provides a useful means of identifying and prioritising varying expectations between stakeholder groups and of indicating any mismatch in expectations in the management of military facilities. Social implications – The development and use of a method to test and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the management of military facilities helps in providing better value for money. Originality/value – In addition to re-affirming Parasuraman's overall dimensions of service expectation, the empirical summary of the stakeholders’ expectations obtained in this way is of practical value for the service provider in developing a strategy for expectation management. For the case studied, it is also apparent that although the current processes in service delivery are well understood by all involved stakeholders, there is a need for further improvement with regards to their expectation levels. It is also one of the very few reported studies on the management of military facilities.

Patient expectations, outcomes and satisfaction : related, relevant or redundant?

Abstract Study design: A prospective investigation of patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery. Objective: Is there a correlation between patient’s expectations before lumbar surgery, postoperative outcomes and satisfaction levels? Methods: A prospective study of 145 patients undergoing primary, single-level surgery for degenerative lumbar conditions was conducted. Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), back visual analogue scale (VAS) and leg VAS were assessed pre-operatively and at 6 weeks and 6 months post-surgery. Patients’ expectations were measured pre-operatively by asking them to score the level of pain and disability that would be least acceptable for them to undergo surgery and be satisfied. Satisfaction was assessed six weeks post-operatively with a Likert scale. Differences in patient expectations between actual and expected improvements were quantified. Results: Most patients had a clinically relevant improvement, but only about half achieved their expectation. Satisfaction did not correlate with pre-operative pain or disability, or with patient expectation of improvement. Instead, satisfaction correlated with positive outcomes. Conclusions Patient expectations have little bearing on final outcome and satisfaction.

Experience of overseas-trained health professionals in rural and remote areas of destination countries: A literature review

This study aimed to review and synthesise existing literature that investigated the experience of overseastrained health professionals (OTHPs) in rural and remote areas of destination countries. A systematic literature review was conducted using electronic databases and manual search of studies published from January 2004 to February 2011. Data were analysed from the final 17 original report articles that met the inclusion criteria. The reviewed research studies were conducted in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA. Overseas-trained medical practitioners were the most frequently researched (n = 14); two studies involved nurses and one study included several health professionals. Three main themes emerged from the review and these were: (i) expectations; (ii) cultural diversity; and (iii) orientation and integration to rural and remote health work environment. The OTHPs were expected to possess the appropriate professional and cultural skills while they themselves expected recognition of their previous experiences and adequate organisational orientation and support. A welcoming and accepting community coupled with a relaxed rural lifestyle and the joy of continued patient care resulted in successful integration and contributed to increased staff retention rates. Recognition of expectations and cultural diversity by all parties and comprehensive orientation with sufficient organisational support are important elements in the integration of OTHPs and subsequent delivery of quality health care to people living in rural and remote areas.

A picture is worth a thousand words : an approach to learning about visuals

Students in the middle years encounter an increasing range of unfamiliar visuals. Visual literacy, the ability to encode and decode visuals and to think visually, is an expectation of all middle years curriculum areas and an expectation of NAPLAN literacy and numeracy tests. This article presents a multidisciplinary approach to teaching visual literacy that links the content of all learning areas and encourages students to transfer skills from familiar to unfamiliar contexts. It proposes a classification of visuals in six parts: one-dimensional; two-dimensional; map; shape; connection; and picture, based on the properties, rather than the purpose, of the visual. By placing a visual in one of these six categories, students learn to transfer the skills used to decode familiar visuals to unfamiliar cases in the same category. The article also discusses a range of other teaching strategies that can be used to complement this multi-disciplinary approach.

The trials and tribulations of a BYOD science classroom

The increase in the availability and use of portable mobile devices has had a number of impacts on society. In particular, this impact has been seen within Higher Education Institutions where staff and students are using these devices for both simple and complex tasks. Within undergraduate teacher education courses there is an expectation that students will be fully prepared for teaching their respective areas of expertise as well as having the ability to use ICT, and in particular portable mobile devices, to support teaching and learning. This paper reports on a small case study into the use of portable mobile devices in a science unit, where the students (N=16) bring their own devices into the classroom and use them in lectures, tutorials and workshops. The study highlights the changing nature of classroom practice within the university setting and the challenges faced by teaching staff and students when using these devices.

Involvement of KLF4 in sulforaphane- and iberin-mediated induction of p21waf1/cip1

Sulforaphane (SF; 4-methylsulfinylbutyl isothiocyanate), a dietary compound derived from broccoli, may exhibit chemopreventive properties by inducing cell cycle arrest via induction of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1A (p21(waf1/cip1)), but the exact molecular mechanism has not been determined. Here we evaluate the role of the transcription factor Kruppel-like factor 4 (KLF4) in mediating the induction of p21(waf1/cip1) and cellular differentiation by SF and iberin (IB; 3-methylsulphinyl propyl isothiocyanate), also derived from broccoli. Exposure of Caco-2 and Caco-2/TC7 cells to SF and IB increased expression of both KLF4 and p21(waf1/cip1), whereas exposure of HT29 cells resulted only in induction of p21(waf1/cip1). In Caco-2 cells, small interfering RNA knock down of KLF4 expression attenuated induction of p21(waf1/cip1) in response to either SF or IB treatment. Contrary to expectation, prolonged exposure to SF reduced sucrase isomaltase activity, a marker of small intestinal differentiation in Caco-2 cells. Additional support for the SF-mediated induction of p21(waf1/cip1) by KLF4 was obtained from analyses of gastric tissue of Apc(Min/+) mice following acute intervention with SF but not from the analyses of other tissue of the intestinal tract. These results suggest that induction of p21(waf1/cip1) by SF or IB may be partly mediated by KLF4 in some colon cancer cells and tissues.

Systematic variation of the severity of motor vehicle accident-related traumatic brain injury vignettes produces different post-concussion symptom reports

This study investigated the specificity of the post-concussion syndrome (PCS) expectation-as-etiology hypothesis. Undergraduate students (n = 551) were randomly allocated to one of three vignette conditions. Vignettes depicted either a very mild (VMI), mild (MI), or moderate-to-severe (MSI) motor vehicle-related traumatic brain injury (TBI). Participants reported the PCS and PTSD symptoms that they imagined the depicted injury would produce. Secondary outcomes (knowledge of mild TBI, and the perceived undesirability of TBI) were also assessed. After data screening, the distribution of participants by condition was: VMI (n = 100), MI (n = 96), and MSI (n = 71). There was a significant effect of condition on PCS symptomatology, F(2, 264) = 16.55, p < .001. Significantly greater PCS symptomatology was expected in the MSI condition compared to the other conditions (MSI > VMI; medium effect, r = .33; MSI > MI; small-to-medium effect, r = .22). The same pattern of group differences was found for PTSD symptoms, F(2, 264) = 17.12, p < .001. Knowledge of mild TBI was not related to differences in expected PCS symptoms by condition; and the perceived undesirability of TBI was only associated with reported PCS symptomatology in the MSI condition. Systematic variation in the severity of a depicted TBI produces different PCS and PTSD symptom expectations. Even a very mild TBI vignette can elicit expectations of PCS symptoms.

Application of the self-efficacy model in nursing practice [自我效能模式於護理臨床應用之剖析]

Self-efficacy has two cognitive components, efficacy expectations and outcome expectations, and their influence on behavior change is synergistic. Efficacy expectation is effected by four main sources of information provided by direct and indirect experiences. The four sources of information are performance accomplishments, vicarious experience, verbal persuasion and self-appraisal. How to measure and develop interventions is an important issue at present. This article clearly analyzes the relationship between variables of the self-efficacy model and explains the implementation of self-efficacy enhancing interventions and instruments in order to test the model. Through the process of the use of theory and feasibility in clinical practice, it is expected that professional medical care personnel should firstly familiarize themselves with the self-efficiency model and concept, and then flexibly promote it in professional fields clinical practice, chronic disease care and health promotion.

Looking back and looking forward : exploring distributed leadership with Queensland Prep teachers

There is an increasing expectation that early childhood teachers will be pedagogical leaders, particularly in a global context of curriculum reform. This paper reports on the distributed leadership experiences of early childhood teachers’ during the 2003 Preparatory Year (Prep) trial in Queensland, Australia. In 2010, 13 of the first Prep teachers participated in interviews to discuss their definitions of leadership and reflect on the opportunities they had to lead curriculum development during and since the 2003 trial. Data were examined using a conceptual framework based on the work of Woods et al. (2004), with a focus on the structural and agential aspects of distributed leadership. Participants identified a range of contextual influences, challenges, skills and enabling strategies that illustrate the complexities in leading curriculum.

Team communications in surgery - creating a culture of safety

As a key department within a healthcare organisation, the operating room is a hazardous environment, where the consequences of errors are high, despite the relatively low rates of occurrence. Team performance in surgery is increasingly being considered crucial for a culture of safety. The aim of this study was to describe team communication and the ways it fostered or threatened safety culture in surgery. Ethnography was used, and involved a 6-month fieldwork period of observation and 19 interviews with 24 informants from nursing, anaesthesia and surgery. Data were collected during 2009 in the operating rooms of a tertiary care facility in Queensland, Australia. Through analysis of the textual data, three themes that exemplified teamwork culture in surgery were generated: ‘‘building shared understandings through open communication’’; ‘‘managing contextual stressors in a hierarchical environment’’ and ‘‘intermittent membership influences team performance’’. In creating a safety culture in a healthcare organisation, a team’s optimal performance relies on the open discussion of teamwork and team expectation, and significantly depends on how the organisational culture promotes such discussions.