Latent variable models for neural data analysis

The brain is perhaps the most complex system to have ever been subjected to rigorous scientific investigation. The scale is staggering: over 10^11 neurons, each making an average of 10^3 synapses, with computation occurring on scales ranging from a single dendritic spine, to an entire cortical area. Slowly, we are beginning to acquire experimental tools that can gather the massive amounts of data needed to characterize this system. However, to understand and interpret these data will also require substantial strides in inferential and statistical techniques. This dissertation attempts to meet this need, extending and applying the modern tools of latent variable modeling to problems in neural data analysis.

It is divided into two parts. The first begins with an exposition of the general techniques of latent variable modeling. A new, extremely general, optimization algorithm is proposed - called Relaxation Expectation Maximization (REM) - that may be used to learn the optimal parameter values of arbitrary latent variable models. This algorithm appears to alleviate the common problem of convergence to local, sub-optimal, likelihood maxima. REM leads to a natural framework for model size selection; in combination with standard model selection techniques the quality of fits may be further improved, while the appropriate model size is automatically and efficiently determined. Next, a new latent variable model, the mixture of sparse hidden Markov models, is introduced, and approximate inference and learning algorithms are derived for it. This model is applied in the second part of the thesis.

The second part brings the technology of part I to bear on two important problems in experimental neuroscience. The first is known as spike sorting; this is the problem of separating the spikes from different neurons embedded within an extracellular recording. The dissertation offers the first thorough statistical analysis of this problem, which then yields the first powerful probabilistic solution. The second problem addressed is that of characterizing the distribution of spike trains recorded from the same neuron under identical experimental conditions. A latent variable model is proposed. Inference and learning in this model leads to new principled algorithms for smoothing and clustering of spike data.

Distributed Load Control in Multiphase Radial Networks

The current power grid is on the cusp of modernization due to the emergence of distributed generation and controllable loads, as well as renewable energy. On one hand, distributed and renewable generation is volatile and difficult to dispatch. On the other hand, controllable loads provide significant potential for compensating for the uncertainties. In a future grid where there are thousands or millions of controllable loads and a large portion of the generation comes from volatile sources like wind and solar, distributed control that shifts or reduces the power consumption of electric loads in a reliable and economic way would be highly valuable.

Load control needs to be conducted with network awareness. Otherwise, voltage violations and overloading of circuit devices are likely. To model these effects, network power flows and voltages have to be considered explicitly. However, the physical laws that determine power flows and voltages are nonlinear. Furthermore, while distributed generation and controllable loads are mostly located in distribution networks that are multiphase and radial, most of the power flow studies focus on single-phase networks.

This thesis focuses on distributed load control in multiphase radial distribution networks. In particular, we first study distributed load control without considering network constraints, and then consider network-aware distributed load control.

Distributed implementation of load control is the main challenge if network constraints can be ignored. In this case, we first ignore the uncertainties in renewable generation and load arrivals, and propose a distributed load control algorithm, Algorithm 1, that optimally schedules the deferrable loads to shape the net electricity demand. Deferrable loads refer to loads whose total energy consumption is fixed, but energy usage can be shifted over time in response to network conditions. Algorithm 1 is a distributed gradient decent algorithm, and empirically converges to optimal deferrable load schedules within 15 iterations.

We then extend Algorithm 1 to a real-time setup where deferrable loads arrive over time, and only imprecise predictions about future renewable generation and load are available at the time of decision making. The real-time algorithm Algorithm 2 is based on model-predictive control: Algorithm 2 uses updated predictions on renewable generation as the true values, and computes a pseudo load to simulate future deferrable load. The pseudo load consumes 0 power at the current time step, and its total energy consumption equals the expectation of future deferrable load total energy request.

Network constraints, e.g., transformer loading constraints and voltage regulation constraints, bring significant challenge to the load control problem since power flows and voltages are governed by nonlinear physical laws. Remarkably, distribution networks are usually multiphase and radial. Two approaches are explored to overcome this challenge: one based on convex relaxation and the other that seeks a locally optimal load schedule.

To explore the convex relaxation approach, a novel but equivalent power flow model, the branch flow model, is developed, and a semidefinite programming relaxation, called BFM-SDP, is obtained using the branch flow model. BFM-SDP is mathematically equivalent to a standard convex relaxation proposed in the literature, but numerically is much more stable. Empirical studies show that BFM-SDP is numerically exact for the IEEE 13-, 34-, 37-, 123-bus networks and a real-world 2065-bus network, while the standard convex relaxation is numerically exact for only two of these networks.

Theoretical guarantees on the exactness of convex relaxations are provided for two types of networks: single-phase radial alternative-current (AC) networks, and single-phase mesh direct-current (DC) networks. In particular, for single-phase radial AC networks, we prove that a second-order cone program (SOCP) relaxation is exact if voltage upper bounds are not binding; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact. For single-phase mesh DC networks, we prove that an SOCP relaxation is exact if 1) voltage upper bounds are not binding, or 2) voltage upper bounds are uniform and power injection lower bounds are strictly negative; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact.

To seek a locally optimal load schedule, a distributed gradient-decent algorithm, Algorithm 9, is proposed. The suboptimality gap of the algorithm is rigorously characterized and close to 0 for practical networks. Furthermore, unlike the convex relaxation approach, Algorithm 9 ensures a feasible solution. The gradients used in Algorithm 9 are estimated based on a linear approximation of the power flow, which is derived with the following assumptions: 1) line losses are negligible; and 2) voltages are reasonably balanced. Both assumptions are satisfied in practical distribution networks. Empirical results show that Algorithm 9 obtains 70+ times speed up over the convex relaxation approach, at the cost of a suboptimality within numerical precision.

Complexity of rupture propagation in large earthquakes in relation to tectonic environment

Complexity in the earthquake rupture process can result from many factors. This study investigates the origin of such complexity by examining several recent, large earthquakes in detail. In each case the local tectonic environment plays an important role in understanding the source of the complexity.

Several large shallow earthquakes (M_s > 7.0) along the Middle American Trench have similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes. They are predominantly thrust events consistent with the known subduction of the Cocos plate beneath N. America. Two events occurring along this subduction zone close to triple junctions show considerable complexity. This may be attributable to a more heterogeneous stress environment in these regions and as such has implications for other subduction zone boundaries.

An event which looks complex but is actually rather simple is the 1978 Bermuda earthquake (M_s ~ 6). It is located predominantly in the mantle. Its mechanism is one of pure thrust faulting with a strike N 20°W and dip 42°NE. Its apparent complexity is caused by local crustal structure. This is an important event in terms of understanding and estimating seismic hazard on the eastern seaboard of N. America.

A study of several large strike-slip continental earthquakes identifies characteristics which are common to them and may be useful in determining what to expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The events are the 1976 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault and two events on the Anatolian fault in Turkey (the 1967, Mudurnu Valley and 1976, E. Turkey events). An attempt to model the complex P-waveforms of these events results in good synthetic fits for the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. However, the E. Turkey event proves to be too complex as it may have associated thrust or normal faulting. Several individual sources occurring at intervals of between 5 and 20 seconds characterize the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. The maximum size of an individual source appears to be bounded at about 5 x 10²⁶ dyne-cm. A detailed source study including directivity is performed on the Guatemala event. The source time history of the Mudurnu Valley event illustrates its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source time series of the 1967 event produces amplitudes greater by a factor of 2.5 than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault.

Three large and important earthquakes demonstrate an important type of complexity --- multiple-fault complexity. The first, the 1976 Philippine earthquake, an oblique thrust event, represents the first seismological evidence for a northeast dipping subduction zone beneath the island of Mindanao. A large event, following the mainshock by 12 hours, occurred outside the aftershock area and apparently resulted from motion on a subsidiary fault since the event had a strike-slip mechanism.

An aftershock of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake on June 6, 1960, proved to be an interesting discovery. It appears to be a large strike-slip event at the main rupture's southern boundary. It most likely occurred on the landward extension of the Chile Rise transform fault, in the subducting plate. The results for this event suggest that a small event triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 hour. This is indeed a "slow earthquake".

Perhaps one of the most complex of events is the recent Tangshan, China event. It began as a large strike-slip event. Within several seconds of the mainshock it may have triggered thrust faulting to the south of the epicenter. There is no doubt, however, that it triggered a large oblique normal event to the northeast, 15 hours after the mainshock. This event certainly contributed to the great loss of life-sustained as a result of the Tangshan earthquake sequence.

What has been learned from these studies has been applied to predict what one might expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas. The expectation from this study is that such an event would be a large complex event, not unlike, but perhaps larger than, the Guatemala or Mudurnu Valley events. That is to say, it will most likely consist of a series of individual events in sequence. It is also quite possible that the event could trigger associated faulting on neighboring fault systems such as those occurring in the Transverse Ranges. This has important bearing on the earthquake hazard estimation for the region.

A Multiwavelength Study of the Intracluster Medium and the Characterization of the Multiwavelength Sub/millimeter Inductance Camera

The first part of this thesis combines Bolocam observations of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect at 140 GHz with X-ray observations from Chandra, strong lensing data from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and weak lensing data from HST and Subaru to constrain parametric models for the distribution of dark and baryonic matter in a sample of six massive, dynamically relaxed galaxy clusters. For five of the six clusters, the full multiwavelength dataset is well described by a relatively simple model that assumes spherical symmetry, hydrostatic equilibrium, and entirely thermal pressure support. The multiwavelength analysis yields considerably better constraints on the total mass and concentration compared to analysis of any one dataset individually. The subsample of five galaxy clusters is used to place an upper limit on the fraction of pressure support in the intracluster medium (ICM) due to nonthermal processes, such as turbulent and bulk flow of the gas. We constrain the nonthermal pressure fraction at r500c to be less than 0.11 at 95% confidence, where r500c refers to radius at which the average enclosed density is 500 times the critical density of the Universe. This is in tension with state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations, which predict a nonthermal pressure fraction of approximately 0.25 at r500c for the clusters in this sample.

The second part of this thesis focuses on the characterization of the Multiwavelength Sub/millimeter Inductance Camera (MUSIC), a photometric imaging camera that was commissioned at the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory (CSO) in 2012. MUSIC is designed to have a 14 arcminute, diffraction-limited field of view populated with 576 spatial pixels that are simultaneously sensitive to four bands at 150, 220, 290, and 350 GHz. It is well-suited for studies of dusty star forming galaxies, galaxy clusters via the SZ Effect, and galactic star formation. MUSIC employs a number of novel detector technologies: broadband phased-arrays of slot dipole antennas for beam formation, on-chip lumped element filters for band definition, and Microwave Kinetic Inductance Detectors (MKIDs) for transduction of incoming light to electric signal. MKIDs are superconducting micro-resonators coupled to a feedline. Incoming light breaks apart Cooper pairs in the superconductor, causing a change in the quality factor and frequency of the resonator. This is read out as amplitude and phase modulation of a microwave probe signal centered on the resonant frequency. By tuning each resonator to a slightly different frequency and sending out a superposition of probe signals, hundreds of detectors can be read out on a single feedline. This natural capability for large scale, frequency domain multiplexing combined with relatively simple fabrication makes MKIDs a promising low temperature detector for future kilopixel sub/millimeter instruments. There is also considerable interest in using MKIDs for optical through near-infrared spectrophotometry due to their fast microsecond response time and modest energy resolution. In order to optimize the MKID design to obtain suitable performance for any particular application, it is critical to have a well-understood physical model for the detectors and the sources of noise to which they are susceptible. MUSIC has collected many hours of on-sky data with over 1000 MKIDs. This work studies the performance of the detectors in the context of one such physical model. Chapter 2 describes the theoretical model for the responsivity and noise of MKIDs. Chapter 3 outlines the set of measurements used to calibrate this model for the MUSIC detectors. Chapter 4 presents the resulting estimates of the spectral response, optical efficiency, and on-sky loading. The measured detector response to Uranus is compared to the calibrated model prediction in order to determine how well the model describes the propagation of signal through the full instrument. Chapter 5 examines the noise present in the detector timestreams during recent science observations. Noise due to fluctuations in atmospheric emission dominate at long timescales (less than 0.5 Hz). Fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of the microwave probe signal due to the readout electronics contribute significant 1/f and drift-type noise at shorter timescales. The atmospheric noise is removed by creating a template for the fluctuations in atmospheric emission from weighted averages of the detector timestreams. The electronics noise is removed by using probe signals centered off-resonance to construct templates for the amplitude and phase fluctuations. The algorithms that perform the atmospheric and electronic noise removal are described. After removal, we find good agreement between the observed residual noise and our expectation for intrinsic detector noise over a significant fraction of the signal bandwidth.

Photochemical electron transfer at fixed distance : a synthetic model of the photosynthetic primary process

A series of meso-phenyloctamethylporphyrins covalently bonded at the 4'phenyl position to quinones via rigid bicyclo[2.2.2]octane spacers were synthesized for the study of the dependence of electron transfer reaction rate on solvent, distance, temperature, and energy gap. A general and convergent synthesis was developed based on the condensation of ac-biladienes with masked quinonespacer-benzaldehydes. From picosecond fluorescence spectroscopy emission lifetimes were measured in seven solvents of varying polarity. Rate constants were determined to vary from 5.0x10⁹sec^-1 in N,N-dimethylformamide to 1.15x10¹⁰ Sec^-1 in benzene, and were observed to rise at most by about a factor of three with decreasing solvent polarity. Experiments at low temperature in 2-MTHF glass (77K) revealed fast, nearly temperature-independent electron transfer characterized by non-exponential fluorescence decays, in contrast to monophasic behavior in fluid solution at 298K. This example evidently represents the first photosynthetic model system not based on proteins to display nearly temperature-independent electron transfer at high temperatures (nuclear tunneling). Low temperatures appear to freeze out the rotational motion of the chromophores, and the observed nonexponential fluorescence decays may be explained as a result of electron transfer from an ensemble of rotational conformations. The nonexponentiality demonstrates the sensitivity of the electron transfer rate to the precise magnitude of the electronic matrix element, which supports the expectation that electron transfer is nonadiabatic in this system. The addition of a second bicyclooctane moiety (15 Å vs. 18 Å edge-to-edge between porphyrin and quinone) reduces the transfer rate by at least a factor of 500-1500. Porphyrinquinones with variously substituted quinones allowed an examination of the dependence of the electron transfer rate constant κ_ET on reaction driving force. The classical trend of increasing rate versus increasing exothermicity occurs from 0.7 eV≤ |ΔG^0'(R)| ≤ 1.0 eV until a maximum is reached (κ_ET = 3 x 10⁸ sec^-1 rising to 1.15 x 10¹⁰ sec^-1 in acetonitrile). The rate remains insensitive to ΔG⁰ for ~ 300 mV from 1.0 eV≤ |ΔG^0’(R)| ≤ 1.3 eV, and then slightly decreases in the most exothermic case studied (cyanoquinone, κ_ET = 5 x 10⁹ sec^-1).

I. Quantum mechanics of one-dimensional two-particle models. II. A quantum mechanical treatment of inelastic collisions

Part I

Solutions of Schrödinger’s equation for system of two particles bound in various stationary one-dimensional potential wells and repelling each other with a Coulomb force are obtained by the method of finite differences. The general properties of such systems are worked out in detail for the case of two electrons in an infinite square well. For small well widths (1-10 a.u.) the energy levels lie above those of the noninteresting particle model by as much as a factor of 4, although excitation energies are only half again as great. The analytical form of the solutions is obtained and it is shown that every eigenstate is doubly degenerate due to the “pathological” nature of the one-dimensional Coulomb potential. This degeneracy is verified numerically by the finite-difference method. The properties of the square-well system are compared with those of the free-electron and hard-sphere models; perturbation and variational treatments are also carried out using the hard-sphere Hamiltonian as a zeroth-order approximation. The lowest several finite-difference eigenvalues converge from below with decreasing mesh size to energies below those of the “best” linear variational function consisting of hard-sphere eigenfunctions. The finite-difference solutions in general yield expectation values and matrix elements as accurate as those obtained using the “best” variational function.

The system of two electrons in a parabolic well is also treated by finite differences. In this system it is possible to separate the center-of-mass motion and hence to effect a considerable numerical simplification. It is shown that the pathological one-dimensional Coulomb potential gives rise to doubly degenerate eigenstates for the parabolic well in exactly the same manner as for the infinite square well.

Part II

A general method of treating inelastic collisions quantum mechanically is developed and applied to several one-dimensional models. The formalism is first developed for nonreactive “vibrational” excitations of a bound system by an incident free particle. It is then extended to treat simple exchange reactions of the form A + BC →AB + C. The method consists essentially of finding a set of linearly independent solutions of the Schrödinger equation such that each solution of the set satisfies a distinct, yet arbitrary boundary condition specified in the asymptotic region. These linearly independent solutions are then combined to form a total scattering wavefunction having the correct asymptotic form. The method of finite differences is used to determine the linearly independent functions.

The theory is applied to the impulsive collision of a free particle with a particle bound in (1) an infinite square well and (2) a parabolic well. Calculated transition probabilities agree well with previously obtained values.

Several models for the exchange reaction involving three identical particles are also treated: (1) infinite-square-well potential surface, in which all three particles interact as hard spheres and each two-particle subsystem (i.e. BC and AB) is bound by an attractive infinite-square-well potential; (2) truncated parabolic potential surface, in which the two-particle subsystems are bound by a harmonic oscillator potential which becomes infinite for interparticle separations greater than a certain value; (3) parabolic (untruncated) surface. Although there are no published values with which to compare our reaction probabilities, several independent checks on internal consistency indicate that the results are reliable.