Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lower Extremities Magnetic Resonance Angiography With Blood Pressure Cuff Compression: Quantitative Dynamic Analysis

Purpose: To quantitatively evaluate changes induced by the application of a femoral blood-pressure cuff (BPC) on run-off magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). which is a method generally previously proposed to reduce venous contamination in the leg. Materials and Methods: This study was Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)- and Institutional Review Board (IRB)-compliant, We used time-resolved gradient-echo gadolinium (Gd)-enhanced MRA to measure BPC effects on arterial, venous, and soft-tissue enhancement. Seven healthy volunteers (six men) were studied with the BPC applied at the mid-femoral level unilaterally using a 1.5T MR system after intravenous injection of Gd-BOPTA. Different statistical tools were used such as the Wilcoxon signed rank test and a cubic smoothing spline fit. Results: We found that BPC application induces delayed venous filling (as previously described), but also induces significant decreases in arterial inflow, arterial enhancement, vascular-soft tissue contrast, and delayed peak enhancement (which have not been previously measured). Conclusion: The potential benefits from using a BPC for run-off MRA must be balanced against the potential pitfalls, elucidated by our findings.

Arthrodesis of the equine proximal interphalangeal joint: a biomechanical comparison of 3-Hole 4.5 mm locking compression plate and 3-hole 4.5 mm narrow dynamic compression plate, with two transarticular 5.5 mm cortex screws

Objectives To compare the biomechanical characteristics of 2 arthrodesis techniques for the equine proximal interphalangeal joint (PIP) using either a 3-hole 4.5 mm locking compression plate (LCP) or 3-hole 4.5 mm narrow dynamic compression plate (DCP), both with 2 transarticular 5.5 mm cortex screws. Study Design Experimental. Sample Population Cadaveric adult equine forelimbs (*n=6 pairs). Methods For each forelimb pair, 1 limb was randomly assigned to 1 of 2 treatment groups and the contralateral limb by default to the other treatment group. Construct stiffness, gap formation across the PIP joint, and rotation about the PIP joint were determined for each construct before cyclic axial loading and after each of four, 5000 cycle loading regimens. After the 20,000 cycle axial loading regimen, each construct was loaded to failure. Results There were no significant differences in construct stiffness, gap formation, or sagittal plane rotation between the LCP and DCP treatment groups at any of the measured time points. Conclusion Biomechanically, fixation of the equine PIP joint with a 3-hole 4.5 mm LCP is equivalent to fixation with a 3-hole 4.5 mm narrow DCP under the test conditions used.

Dynamic processes in the contingent valuation of an endangered mammal species

Reports experimental results involving 204 members of the public who were asked their willingness to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider Petaurus gracilis on three occasions: prior to information being provided to them about the glider and other wildlife species; after such information was provided, and after participants had an opportunity to see live specimens of this endangered species. Variations in the mean willingness to pay are analysed. Concerns arise about whether information provision and experience reveal ‘true’ contingent valuations of public goods and about the choice of the relevant contingent valuation measure.

A dynamic model with on-line identification for rotary sugar drying processes

A dynamic modelling methodology, which combines on-line variable estimation and parameter identification with physical laws to form an adaptive model for rotary sugar drying processes, is developed in this paper. In contrast to the conventional rate-based models using empirical transfer coefficients, the heat and mass transfer rates are estimated by using on-line measurements in the new model. Furthermore, a set of improved sectional solid transport equations with localized parameters is developed in this work to reidentified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.place the global correlation for the computation of solid retention time. Since a number of key model variables and parameters are identified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.

The acquisition of movement skills: Practice enhances the dynamic stability of bimanual coordination

During bimanual movements, two relatively stable inherent patterns of coordination (in-phase and anti-phase) are displayed (e.g., Kelso, Am. J. Physiol. 246 (1984) R1000). Recent research has shown that new patterns of coordination can be learned. For example, following practice a 90 degrees out-of-phase pattern can emerge as an additional, relatively stable, state (e.g., Zanone & Kelso, J. Exp. Psychol.: Human Performance and Perception 18 (1992) 403). On this basis, it has been concluded that practice leads to the evolution and stabilisation of the newly learned pattern and that this process of learning changes the entire attractor layout of the dynamic system. A general feature of such research has been to observe the changes of the targeted pattern's stability characteristics during training at a single movement frequency. The present study was designed to examine how practice affects the maintenance of a coordinated pattern as the movement frequency is scaled. Eleven volunteers were asked to perform a bimanual forearm pronation-supination task. Time to transition onset was used as an index of the subjects' ability to maintain two symmetrically opposite coordinated patterns (target task - 90 degrees out-of-phase - transfer task - 270 degrees out-of-phase). Their ability to maintain the target task and the transfer task were examined again after five practice sessions each consisting of 15 trials of only the 90 degrees out-of-phase pattern. Concurrent performance feedback (a Lissajous figure) was available to the participants during each practice trial. A comparison of the time to transition onset showed that the target task was more stable after practice (p = 0.025). These changes were still observed one week (p = 0.05) and two months (p = 0.075) after the practice period. Changes in the stability of the transfer task were not observed until two months after practice (p = 0.025). Notably, following practice, transitions from the 90 degrees pattern were generally to the anti-phase (180 degrees) pattern, whereas, transitions from the 270 degrees pattern were to the 90 degrees pattern. These results suggest that practice does improve the stability of a 90 degrees pattern, and that such improvements are transferable to the performance of the unpractised 270 degrees pattern. In addition, the anti-phase pattern remained more stable than the practised 90 degrees pattern throughout. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a real-time RT-PCR assay for plasma membrane calcium ATPase isoform 1 (PMCA1) mRNA levels in a human breast epithelial cell line.

The plasma membrane Ca2+ pump is a key regulator of cytosolic free Ca2+. Recent studies have demonstrated the dynamic expression of the plasma membrane Ca2+ pump in a variety of cell types. Furthermore, alterations in plasma membrane calcium pump activity have now been implicated in human disease. In this study, the development of a technique to quantitatively assess mRNA expression of the human plasma membrane Ca2+ ATPase (PMCA1) isoform of the plasma membrane Ca2+ pump, using a real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (real-time RT-PCR) assay in a human breast epithelial cell line (MCF-7) is described. The sequences of the PMCA1 primers and probe for real-time RT-PCR are presented. The results also indicate that PMCA1 mRNA can be normalized to both 18S ribosomal RNA (18S rRNA) and human glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (hGAPDH) in MCF-7 cells. Real-time RT-PCR will be most useful in assessing PMCA1 mRNA expression in cases where only low amounts of RNA are available and/or when numerous samples must be assessed simultaneously. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Kinetics of baculovirus replication and release using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction

The study of viral-based processes is hampered by (a) their complex, transient nature, (b) the instability of products, and (c) the lack of accurate diagnostic assays. Here, we describe the use of real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction to characterize baculoviral infection. Baculovirus DNA content doubles every 1.7 h from 6 h post-infection until replication is halted at the onset of budding. No dynamic equilibrium exists between replication and release, and the kinetics are independent of the cell density at the time of infection. No more than 16% of the intracellular virus copies bud from the cell. (C) 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Biotechnol Bioeng 77: 476-480, 2002; DOI 10.1002/bit.10126.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Capillaries within compartments: Microvascular interpretation of dynamic positron emission tomography data

Measurement of exchange of substances between blood and tissue has been a long-lasting challenge to physiologists, and considerable theoretical and experimental accomplishments were achieved before the development of the positron emission tomography (PET). Today, when modeling data from modern PET scanners, little use is made of earlier microvascular research in the compartmental models, which have become the standard model by which the vast majority of dynamic PET data are analysed. However, modern PET scanners provide data with a sufficient temporal resolution and good counting statistics to allow estimation of parameters in models with more physiological realism. We explore the standard compartmental model and find that incorporation of blood flow leads to paradoxes, such as kinetic rate constants being time-dependent, and tracers being cleared from a capillary faster than they can be supplied by blood flow. The inability of the standard model to incorporate blood flow consequently raises a need for models that include more physiology, and we develop microvascular models which remove the inconsistencies. The microvascular models can be regarded as a revision of the input function. Whereas the standard model uses the organ inlet concentration as the concentration throughout the vascular compartment, we consider models that make use of spatial averaging of the concentrations in the capillary volume, which is what the PET scanner actually registers. The microvascular models are developed for both single- and multi-capillary systems and include effects of non-exchanging vessels. They are suitable for analysing dynamic PET data from any capillary bed using either intravascular or diffusible tracers, in terms of physiological parameters which include regional blood flow. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ambulatory blood pressure and Doppler echocardiographic indexes of borderline hypertensive men presenting an exaggerated blood pressure response during dynamic exercise

Borderline hypertension (BH) has been associated with an exaggerated blood pressure (BP) response during laboratory stressors. However, the incidence of target organ damage in this condition and its relation to BP hyperreactivity is an unsettled issue. Thus, we assessed the Doppler echocardiographic profile of a group of BH men (N = 36) according to office BP measurements with exaggerated BP in the cycloergometric test. A group of normotensive men (NT, N = 36) with a normal BP response during the cycloergometric test was used as control. To assess vascular function and reactivity, all subjects were submitted to the cold pressor test. Before Doppler echocardiography, the BP profile of all subjects was evaluated by 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring. All subjects from the NT group presented normal monitored levels of BP. In contrast, 19 subjects from the original BH group presented normal monitored BP levels and 17 presented elevated monitored BP levels. In the NT group all Doppler echocardiographic indexes were normal. All subjects from the original BH group presented normal left ventricular mass and geometrical pattern. However, in the subjects with elevated monitored BP levels, fractional shortening was greater, isovolumetric relaxation time longer, and early to late flow velocity ratio was reduced in relation to subjects from the original BH group with normal monitored BP levels (P<0.05). These subjects also presented an exaggerated BP response during the cold pressor test. These results support the notion of an integrated pattern of cardiac and vascular adaptation during the development of hypertension.

Predictive Optimal Matrix Converter Control for a Dynamic Voltage Restorer with Flywheel Energy Storage

This paper presents a predictive optimal matrix converter controller for a flywheel energy storage system used as Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR). The flywheel energy storage device is based on a steel seamless tube mounted as a vertical axis flywheel to store kinetic energy. The motor/generator is a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machine driven by the AC-AC Matrix Converter. The matrix control method uses a discrete-time model of the converter system to predict the expected values of the input and output currents for all the 27 possible vectors generated by the matrix converter. An optimal controller minimizes control errors using a weighted cost functional. The flywheel and control process was tested as a DVR to mitigate voltage sags and swells. Simulation results show that the DVR is able to compensate the critical load voltage without delays, voltage undershoots or overshoots, overcoming the input/output coupling of matrix converters.

Periodic dynamic systems for infected hosts and mosquitoes

A mathematical model for the purpose of analysing the dynamic of the populations of infected hosts anf infected mosquitoes when the populations of mosquitoes are periodic in time is here presented. By the computation of a parameter lambda (the spectral radius of a certain monodromy matrix) one can state that either the infection peters out naturally) (lambda <= 1) or if lambda > 1 the infection becomes endemic. The model generalizes previous models for malaria by considering the case of periodic coefficients; it is also a variation of that for gonorrhea. The main motivation for the consideration of this present model was the recent studies on mosquitoes at an experimental rice irrigation system, in the South-Eastern region of Brazil.