Belize: Macro socio-economic assessment of the damage and losses caused by tropical depression 16

Tropical Depression 16 (TD16) crept up on disparate populations in Belize over a period 8-16 October 2008. TD16 struck less than five months after the first named tropical storm of the 2008 Atlantic season, Arthur. The storm had been forecasted to dump up to 10 inches of rain over Belize and up to 15 inches in isolated areas. Arthur had devastating effects on Belize, particularly the southern regions where bridges collapsed and lives were lost. It was in the aftermath of such devastation that Belize faced TD16. The consequence of TD16 is what falls under the purview of this assessment.

Jamaica: Macro-socio-economic assessment of the damage done by flood rains and landslides May 2002

This assessment was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant damages to social and economic infrastructure and productive sectors as a result of a period of sustained and unusual rainfall associated with the convergence of a tropical wave over Jamaica and an area of high pressure to the north of the island resulting in periods of heavy and sustained rainfall over the period May 22 – June 2, 2002. A request for technical assistance was directed to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, on May 31, by the Planning Institute of Jamaica. In view of the recent training provided by the ECLAC Caribbean team in the use of the ECLAC methodology to a multi-disciplinary group of 58 persons spanning several sectors, it was felt that this event, while most unfortunate, nonetheless provided an opportune moment for the Jamaican “trainees” to utilize the skills transferred and to apply the methodology which had been taught. Consequently, ECLAC fielded a team of five persons a few days after the request had been made , to give the Jamaican counterpart team the opportunity to collect data of the type and using an approach well suited to the preparation of assessments such as this.

Genotoxic assessment of Rubus imperialis (Rosaceae) extract in vivo and its potential chemoprevention against cyclophosphamide-induced DNA damage

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Nonlinear formulation based on FEM, Mazars damage criterion and Fick's law applied to failure assessment of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride ingress and reinforcements corrosion

Structural durability is an important design criterion, which must be assessed for every type of structure. In this regard, especial attention must be addressed to the durability of reinforced concrete (RC) structures. When RC structures are located in aggressive environments, its durability is strongly reduced by physical/chemical/mechanical processes that trigger the corrosion of reinforcements. Among these processes, the diffusion of chlorides is recognized as one of major responsible of corrosion phenomenon start. To accurate modelling the corrosion of reinforcements and to assess the durability of RC structures, a mechanical model that accounts realistically for both concrete and steel mechanical behaviour must be considered. In this context, this study presents a numerical nonlinear formulation based on the finite element method applied to structural analysis of RC structures subjected to chloride penetration and reinforcements corrosion. The physical nonlinearity of concrete is described by Mazars damage model whereas for reinforcements elastoplastic criteria are adopted. The steel loss along time due to corrosion is modelled using an empirical approach presented in literature and the chloride concentration growth along structural cover is represented by Fick's law. The proposed model is applied to analysis of bended structures. The results obtained by the proposed numerical approach are compared to responses available in literature in order to illustrate the evolution of structural resistant load after corrosion start. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of cumulative damage by using ultrasonic C-scan on carbon fiber/epoxy composites under thermal cycling

In recent years, structural composites manufactured by carbon fiber/epoxy laminates have been employed in large scale in aircraft industries. These structures require high strength under severe temperature changes of -56° until 80 °C. Regarding this scenario, the aim of this research was to reproduce thermal stress in the laminate plate developed by temperature changes and tracking possible cumulative damages on the laminate using ultrasonic C-scan inspection. The evaluation was based on attenuation signals and the C-scan map of the composite plate. The carbon fiber/epoxy plain weave laminate underwent temperatures of -60° to 80 °C, kept during 10 minutes and repeated for 1000, 2000, 3000 and 4000 times. After 1000 cycles, the specimens were inspected by C-scanning. A few changes in the laminate were observed using the inspection methodology only in specimens cycled 3000 times, or so. According to the found results, the used temperature range did not present enough conditions to cumulative damage in this type of laminate, which is in agreement with the macro - and micromechanical theory.

Assessment of in vivo genotoxicity of the rodent carcinogen furan: evaluation of DNA damage and induction of micronuclei in mouse splenocytes

In recent years, several surveys have highlighted the presence of the rodent carcinogen furan in a variety of food items. Even though the evidence of carcinogenicity of furan is unequivocal, the underlying mechanism has not been fully elucidated. In particular, the role of genotoxicity in furan carcinogenicity is still not clear, even though this information is considered pivotal for the assessment of the risk posed by the presence of low doses of furan in food. In this work, the genotoxic potential of furan in vivo has been investigated in mice, under exposure conditions similar to those associated with cancer onset in the National Toxicology Program long-term bioassay. To this aim, male B6C3F1 mice were treated by gavage for 4 weeks with 2, 4, 8 and 15 mg furan/kg b.w./day. Spleen was selected as the target organ for genotoxicity assessment, in view of the capability of quiescent splenocytes to accumulate DNA damage induced by repeat dose exposure. The induction of primary DNA damage in splenocytes was evaluated by alkaline single-cell gel electrophoresis (comet assay) and by the immunofluorescence detection of foci of phosphorylated histone H2AX (gamma-H2AX). The presence of cross-links was probed in a modified comet assay, in which cells were irradiated in vitro with gamma-rays before electrophoresis. Chromosome damage was quantitated through the detection of micronuclei in mitogen-stimulated splenocytes using the cytokinesis-block method. Micronucleus induction was also assessed with a modified protocol, using the repair inhibitor 1-beta-arabinofuranosyl-cytosine to convert single-strand breaks in micronuclei. The results obtained show a significant (P < 0.01) increase of gamma-H2AX foci in mitogen-stimulated splenocytes of mice treated with 8 and 15 mg furan/kg b.w. and a statistically significant (P < 0.001) increases of micronuclei in binucleated splenocytes cultured in vitro. Conversely, no effect of in vivo exposure to furan was observed when freshly isolated quiescent splenocytes were analysed by immunofluorescence and in comet assays, both with standard and radiation-modified protocols. These results indicate that the in vivo exposure to furan gives rise to pre-mutagenic DNA damage in resting splenocytes, which remains undetectable until it is converted in frank lesions during the S-phase upon mitogen stimulation. The resulting DNA strand breaks are visualized by the increase in gamma-H2AX foci and may originate micronuclei at the subsequent mitosis.

Anaemia may add information to standardised disease activity assessment to predict radiographic damage in rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Anaemia in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is prototypical of the chronic disease type and is often neglected in clinical practice. We studied anaemia in relation to disease activity, medications and radiographic progression. METHODS: Data were collected between 1996 and 2007 over a mean follow-up of 2.2 years. Anaemia was defined according to WHO (♀ haemoglobin<12 g/dl, ♂: haemoglobin<13 g/dl), or alternative criteria. Anaemia prevalence was studied in relation to disease parameters and pharmacological therapy. Radiographic progression was analysed in 9731 radiograph sets from 2681 patients in crude longitudinal regression models and after adjusting for potential confounding factors, including the clinical disease activity score with the 28-joint count for tender and swollen joints and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28ESR) or the clinical disease activity index (cDAI), synthetic antirheumatic drugs and antitumour necrosis factor (TNF) therapy. RESULTS: Anaemia prevalence decreased from more than 24% in years before 2001 to 15% in 2007. Erosions progressed significantly faster in patients with anaemia (p<0.001). Adjusted models showed these effects independently of clinical disease activity and other indicators of disease severity. Radiographic damage progression rates were increasing with severity of anaemia, suggesting a 'dose-response effect'. The effect of anaemia on damage progression was maintained in subgroups of patients treated with TNF blockade or corticosteroids, and without non-selective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia in RA appears to capture disease processes that remain unmeasured by established disease activity measures in patients with or without TNF blockade, and may help to identify patients with more rapid erosive disease.

Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas – An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation

Global environmental change includes changes in a wide range of global scale phenomena, which are expected to affect a number of physical processes, as well as the vulnerability of the communities that will experience their impact. Decision-makers are in need of tools that will enable them to assess the loss of such processes under different future scenarios and to design risk reduction strategies. In this paper, a tool is presented that can be used by a range of end-users (e.g. local authorities, decision makers, etc.) for the assessment of the monetary loss from future landslide events, with a particular focus on torrential processes. The toolbox includes three functions: a) enhancement of the post-event damage data collection process, b) assessment of monetary loss of future events and c) continuous updating and improvement of an existing vulnerability curve by adding data of recent events. All functions of the tool are demonstrated through examples of its application.

Methods for assessment of keel bone damage in poultry

Keel bone damage (KBD) is a critical issue facing the laying hen industry today as a result of the likely pain leading to compromised welfare and the potential for reduced productivity. Recent reports suggest that damage, while highly variable and likely dependent on a host of factors, extends to all systems (including battery cages, furnished cages, and non-cage systems), genetic lines, and management styles. Despite the extent of the problem, the research community remains uncertain as to the causes and influencing factors of KBD. Although progress has been made investigating these factors, the overall effort is hindered by several issues related to the assessment of KBD, including quality and variation in the methods used between research groups. These issues prevent effective comparison of studies, as well as difficulties in identifying the presence of damage leading to poor accuracy and reliability. The current manuscript seeks to resolve these issues by offering precise definitions for types of KBD, reviewing methods for assessment, and providing recommendations that can improve the accuracy and reliability of those assessments.

A comprehensive assessment of environmental ultraviolet radiation induced DNA damage in marine microorganisms

There is evidence that ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is increasing over certain locations on the Earth's surface. Of primary concern is the annual pattern of ozone depletion over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Reduction of ozone concentration selectively limits absorption of solar UV-B (290–320 nm), resulting in higher irradiance at the Earth's surface. The effects of ozone depletion on the human population and natural ecosystems, particularly the marine environment, are a matter of considerable concern. Indeed, marine plankton may serve as sensitive indicators of ozone depletion and UV-B fluctuations. Direct biological effects of UVR result from absorption of UV-B by DNA. Once absorbed, energy is dissipated by a variety of pathways, including covalent chemical reactions leading to the formation of photoproducts. The major types of photoproduct formed are cyclobutyl pyrimidine dimer (CPD) and pyrimidine(6-4)pyrimidone dimer [(6-4)PD]. Marine plankton repair these photoproducts using light-dependent photoenzymatic repair or nucleotide excision repair. The studies here show that fluctuations in CPD concentrations in the marine environment at Palmer Station, Antarctica correlate well with ozone concentration and UV-B irradiance at the Earth's surface. A comparison of photoproduct levels in marine plankton and DNA dosimeters show that bacterioplankton display higher resistance to solar UVR than phytoplankton in an ozone depleted environment. DNA damage in marine microorganisms was investigated during two separate latitudinal transects which covered a total range of 140°. We observed the same pattern of change in DNA damage levels in dosimeters and marine plankton as measured using two distinct quantitative techniques. Results from the transects show that differences in photosensitivity exist in marine plankton collected under varying UVR environments. Laboratory studies of Antarctic bacterial isolates confirm that marine bacterioplankton possess differences in survival, DNA damage induction, and repair following exposure to UVR. Results from DNA damage measurements during ozone season, along a latitudinal gradient, and in marine bacterial isolates suggest that changes in environmental UVR correlate with changes in UV-B induced DNA damage in marine microorganisms. Differences in the ability to tolerate UVR stress under different environmental conditions may determine the composition of the microbial communities inhabiting those environments. ^

Assessment of cone beam computed tomography techniques for imaging lung damage in mice in vivo

Lung damage is a common side effect of chemotherapeutic drugs such as bleomycin. This study used a bleomycin mouse model which simulates the lung damage observed in humans. Noninvasive, in vivo cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) was used to visualize and quantify fibrotic and inflammatory damage over the entire lung volume of mice. Bleomycin was used to induce pulmonary damage in vivo and the results from two CBCT systems, a micro-CT and flat panel CT (fpCT), were compared to histologic measurements, the standard method of murine lung damage quantification. Twenty C57BL/6 mice were given either 3 U/kg of bleomycin or saline intratracheally. The mice were scanned at baseline, before the administration of bleomycin, and then 10, 14, and 21 days afterward. At each time point, a subset of mice was sacrificed for histologic analysis. The resulting CT images were used to assess lung volume. Percent lung damage (PLD) was calculated for each mouse on both the fpCT (PLDfpcT) and the micro-CT (PLDμCT). Histologic PLD (PLDH) was calculated for each histologic section at each time point (day 10, n = 4; day 14, n = 4; day 21, n = 5; control group, n = 5). A linear regression was applied to the PLDfpCT vs. PLDH, PLDμCT vs. PLDH and PLDfpCT vs. PLDμCT distributions. This study did not demonstrate strong correlations between PLDCT and PLDH. The coefficient of determination, R, was 0.68 for PLDμCT vs. PLDH and 0.75 for the PLD fpCT vs. PLDH. The experimental issues identified from this study were: (1) inconsistent inflation of the lungs from scan to scan, (2) variable distribution of damage (one histologic section not representative of overall lung damage), (3) control mice not scanned with each group of bleomycin mice, (4) two CT systems caused long anesthesia time for the mice, and (5) respiratory gating did not hold the volume of lung constant throughout the scan. Addressing these issues might allow for further improvement of the correlation between PLDCT and PLDH. ^

Detailed damage mechanisms assessment in composite materials by means of X-ray tomography

This research focused on the evaluation of damage formation on ±45º carbon fiber laminates subjected to tensile tests. The damage was evaluated by means of X-ray tomography. A high density of cracks developed during the plateau of the stress-strain curve and were qualitatively analyzed, showing that the inner plies eventually developed a higher crack concentration than the outer plies. Delamination started to occur in the outermost ply interface when the slope after the plateau of the stress-strain curve began to increase.

Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

Assessment of damage domains of the High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR)

This paper presents an assessment analysis of damage domains of the 30 MWth prototype High-Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) operated by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). For this purpose, an in-house deterministic risk assessment computational tool was developed based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD). To illustrate the methodology and applicability of the developed modelling approach, assessment results of a control rod (CR) withdrawal accident during subcritical conditions are presented and compared with those obtained by the JAEA.